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Understanding the limitations of Technical Analysis
02-12-2008, 17:00 GMT

Jason Alan Jankovsky Provides a deeper look into the theory of Technical Analysis...

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Forex Analysis - Daily


Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD falls on long-liquidation
• Stops noted in all pairs
• Volumes better


Overnight Preview

• Look for follow-through in Asia on firm equities
• Should get quiet ahead of US data tomorrow


Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Prelim GDP q/q
• 8:30am USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q
• 9:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
• 10:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence
• 10:00am USD HPI m/m
• 10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index


Summary
The USD continued to slide into late afternoon trade pushing the majors to late highs as equities continued to climb posting solid gains and holding them into the close. Traders note that much of the day’s action was driven by stops as the majors climbed to new weekly highs in some pairs. Major support/resistance in several pairs helped to drive fresh USD selling as well and the speculation is high that the USD will face follow-on long-liquidation into Tuesday’s trade. Traders remind that the holiday shortened week will likely encourage book-squaring and today’s action helped to confirm that view as the USD bulls headed for the sidelines. GBP rallied to a high print at 1.5181 making a show toward last weeks’ highs and holding firm into the close suggesting more short-covering is on the way; traders note stops were thick on the move over the 1.5080 area with more likely over the 1.5250 area. EURO rallied to a high print at 1.2911 before sellers capped the move but stops were thick above the 1.2770 area with more noted at 1.2850; traders also note that EURO scored a new weekly high today suggesting that a potential reversal is in the works. US equities held triple-digit gains closing near the highs for the day lifting USD/JPY for a high print just under 97.00 at 96.98; traders note stops over the 96.50 area helping to lift the rate as well. Aggressive traders will note that the rate is now near the previous sell-zone around 97.00 to 97.50; no doubt follow-on buying will attract sellers in that range so be ready for a potential pullback from over the 97.00 handle. USD/CAD fell to a low print at previous support of 1.2240 making for a secure double-top near-term; the rate recovered a bit into the 1.2300 handle suggesting that the rate may be leading the complex on the break lower and finding technical support first across the board. Aggressive traders can sell into a rally to the 1.2480/1.2520 area in my view. USD/CHF found stops in size at the 1.2080 and more at 1.2030 area for a low print at 1.1954; traders note that Friday’s hook reversal is validated and most likely a long-liquidating break is in play in the rate. In my view, today’s price action builds credibility for a top in the USD as the move higher by the majors was fully coordinated across the board suggesting the move was USD-based and not cross-spreaders or driven by individual reasons in each pair. The USD was under pressure across the board making the move likely a long-liquidation break. Traders note that the major news for the week is due tomorrow and should that be unfriendly to the USD it is likely that the majors will follow-through tomorrow. Look for the majors to follow higher overnight Asia to start and then get quiet ahead of US GDP numbers in the morning.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5350
Resistance 2: 1.5280
Resistance 1: 1.5200/20
Latest New York: 1.5161
Support 1: 1.4700/10
Support 2: 1.4650
Support 3: 1.4550


Comments
Stops rally trade as equities firm, volumes a bit better but still off earlier highs. Traders note solid two-way action with stops building above the market likely in the 1.5050 area and higher triggered. Sellers hold control above 1.5100 area so far but how the rate trades into US news tomorrow will tell more. OK to buy if flat on a dip. Traders also note the same names seen in size on the bid the past few days has been on the offer overnight. Profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Technical trade overnight as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals
4:30am GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q
4:45am GBP MPC Treasury Committee Hearings


EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3020/30
Resistance 2: 1.3000
Resistance 1: 1.2950
Latest New York: 1.2916
Support 1: 1.2420
Support 2: 1.2380
Support 3: 1.2320/30


Comments
High prints in New York as stocks firm further, follow-on selling drops the rate into light stops after IFO data released but lows hold above Friday’s action and stops lift to new weekly highs. Possible reversal now in play. Bids are building under the 1.2600 area as expected; sell-off likely to be bought hard now. OK to try the long side again on a dip. Likely some spillover support from GBP. Traders note stops building above the market around the 1.2750 area in size cleared with no pullback suggesting rate will look for the stops noted around the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate
2:00am EUR German Final GDP q/q

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

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