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Understanding the limitations of Technical Analysis 02-12-2008, 17:00 GMT
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Forex Analysis - Daily


Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD continues slide, stops drive trade
• Aggressive buying of GBP seen in afternoon trade
• Volumes remain lighter amid thinner conditions


Overnight Preview

• Look for more two-way action
• USD likely to remain under pressure


Looking Ahead to Wednesday and end of week
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• Closed Wednesday, markets have early close
• Broadcasts and Newsletters return Monday December 1
• 8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
• 8:30am USD Personal Spending m/m
• 8:30am USD Personal Income m/m
• 9:45am USD Chicago PMI
• 9:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
• 9:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
• 10:00am USD New Home Sales


Summary
The USD continued to slide today after the release of benign US Q3 GDP estimates; forex traders note that early USD strength was stop-driven on low volume suggesting that the Greenback is running out of committed buyers as we head into a holiday shortened week. Analysts remind that year-end book-squaring will likely add a bit of pressure to the USD and technical factors are not positive after the turnaround seen the past 72 hours or so. Today’s announcement by the US Fed that additional liquidity products will be available, most notably the purchase of commercial paper, sends a double-edged message to the markets. On the one hand it adds credibility to the commitment to bail-out the credit crisis as a positive; on the other hand it adds one more flood of liquidity to the market that is not responding by loosening credit. In my view, with all this cash held in reserve it is only a matter of time before that cash goes into the system and that is a big negative to the USD in my view. Today’s trading seemed to back up this point of view as the USD was whacked for the second day. GBP rallied hard through stops layered above the market and came near a two year high at 1.5476 before sellers capped the move. Likely early longs liquidating and shorts covering squared off with the shorts loosing into the last full day of trading this week. Technically the GBP has put in a reversal by trading above last week’s highs and traders note that volumes were only fair on the move suggesting more two-way action will be the rule. EURO high prints more subdued but still over resistance at 1.3082 with stops noted above the 1.3050 area; lows at 1.2803 went unchallenged after the US data through the London fix. USD/JPY fell to weekly support at 94.92 missing stops said to be resting in that area. Overnight highs in Asia at 97.44 again show offers are willing on rallies. USD/CHF fell through key support at 1.1880 for a low print at 1.1829 making a solid show of long-liquidation; traders note the recovery back to the 1.1880 area show the bulls are not quite willing to throw in the towel at this point. USD/CAD again tested support is high volatility with a low print at 1.2124 before rallying a full two-handles highs to end above the 1.2300 handle; traders note that thin conditions probably exaggerated the moves but tell that to the late bulls who were crushed on the move. In my view, the USD is continuing to sketch in a significant top. With a long weekend now in play it is likely the USD will continue to whipsaw and volumes dry up ahead of Thursday. Look for interest in the markets to drop dramatically after the US open for the last round of news this week. Have a great weekend and see you on Monday.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5680
Resistance 2: 1.5620
Resistance 1: 1.55550
Latest New York: 1.5510
Support 1: 1.4700/10
Support 2: 1.4650
Support 3: 1.4550


Comments
Late rally extends to clear resistance—traders note aggressive bids across all pairs. Quiet corrective action in light trade overnight. Good bids reported but supply seen from semi-official names. Stops in range helps to pressure but support is on technical numbers around 1.5050 area. Traders note solid two-way action with stops building above the market likely in the 1.5250 area and higher. Sellers hold control above 1.5100 area so far but how the rate trades into US news today will tell more. OK to buy if flat on a dip. Traders also note the same names seen in size on the bid the past few days has been on the offer overnight. Profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Technical trade overnight as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts forex charts. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP Revised GDP q/q
4:30am GBP Index of Services 3m/3m


EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3200
Resistance 2: 1.3120/30
Resistance 1: 1.3100
Latest New York: 1.3070
Support 1: 1.2800/10
Support 2: 1.2730
Support 3: 1.2650


Comments
Late rally with spillover from GBP clears all resistance; next level due around 1.3130 area or slightly higher. Possible reversal now in play but the rate needs to be firm within 24 hours. Bids are building under the 1.2600 area as expected; sell-off likely to be bought hard now. OK to try the long side again on a dip. Likely some spillover support from GBP. Traders note stops building above the market around the 1.2750 area in size cleared suggesting rate will look for the stops noted around the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

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