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Japan Machine Tool Order Data Due On Friday





Japan will on Friday see final September numbers for machine tool orders, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The previous reading suggested a decline of 35.5 percent on year.


Singapore will release September numbers for industrial production; in August, industrial production was down 7.5 percent on month and 8.0 percent on year.


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Japan Producer Prices Hold Steady At 0.5%





Producer prices in Japan were up 0.5 percent on year in September, the Bank of Japan said on Monday - in line with expectations and unchanged from the August reading following a downward revision from 0.6 percent.


On a monthly basis, producer prices were flat following the 0.1 percent decline in the previous month.


Excluding international transportation, producer prices were up an annual 0.6 percent after gaining 0.5 percent a month earlier.


Among the individual components, prices were up for transportation, communications and leasing and rental. Prices were down for advertising and architectural services.


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Tokyo Overall Inflation Steady At 0.4% On Year





Overall consumer prices in the Tokyo region of Japan were up 0.4 percent on year in October, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Tuesday.


That was unchanged from the September reading, although it was well shy of forecasts for an increase of 0.7 percent.


Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food prices, rose an annual 0.5 percent. That also was unchanged and shy of expect6ations for an increase of 0.7 percent.


On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, overall Tokyo inflation was flat and core CPI was up 0.2 percent.


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Australia Consumer Prices Rise 1.7% On Year In Q3





Consumer prices in Australia were up 1.7 percent on year in the third quarter of 2019, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - in line with expectations and up from 1.6 percent in the previous three months.


On a quarterly basis, inflation was up 0.5 percent - again matching expectations and down from 0.6 percent in the three months prior.


The Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean came in at 0.4 percent on quarter and 1.6 percent on year - both unchanged and as expected.


The RBA's weighted median was at 0.3 percent on quarter and 1.2 percent on year.


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Dollar Loses Ground Against Rivals As Fed Cuts Interest Rate





The U.S. dollar was weak against most major currencies on Wednesday, weighed down by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates.


The dollar index, which was moving along the flat line for much of the session till the Federal Reserve came out with its rate call, initially climbed higher after the Fed cut rates and signaled a pause in easing cycle.


However, the dollar retreated subsequently, falling from 98.00 to 97.50, netting a loss of 0.2%.


The Fed announced its widely expected to decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.5% to 1.75%.


The quarter point rate cut follows two matching moves at the Fed's meetings in September and July, which marked the first rate cuts in over a decade.


However, the Fed's accompanying statement removed a key line indicating the central bank would continue to "act as appropriate to sustain the expansion."


The line was included in each of the Fed's three previous statements and was seen as pointing toward a near-term rate cut.


The Fed said it would continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.


Against the euro, the dollar was quoting at 1.1147, compared to previous close of 1.1111.


Eurozone economic confidence eased to a near five-year low in October suggesting that the single currency bloc entered the fourth quarter on a weak footing.


The economic sentiment index dropped to 100.8 in October from 101.7 in the previous month, survey results from the European Commission showed.


The pound sterling was up at $1.2903, from Tuesday's close of $1.2868.


Against the Japanese Yen, the dollar was down slightly with a unit fetching 108.84 yen. On Tuesday, the Japanese currency had settled at 108.88 a dollar.


The Aussie was gaining nearly 0.5% at 0.6898


The dollar was down notably against Swiss franc and loonie as well. The dollar-franc pair was at 0.9895.


The dollar was quoting at 1.3163 against the loonie after the Bank of Canada left its key rate unchanged and downgraded its growth forecast for next two years amid worsening global economic conditions.


The BoC kept its key rate unchanged at 1.75%, as expected.


The bank said that economic growth is likely to slow in the second half of this year, reflecting trade uncertainty, continuing adjustment in the energy sector, and the unwinding of temporary factors that boosted growth in the second quarter.


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Australia Retail Sales Data On Tap For Monday


Australia will on Monday release September figures for retail sales, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.


Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4 percent on month, unchanged from the August ready. For the third quarter of 2019, sales are called higher by 0.3 percent, up from 0.2 percent in Q2.


Australia also will see October data for the job ads monitor from ANZ and the inflation forecast from TD Securities. In September, job ads were up 0.3 percent on month, while inflation was predicted to be higher by 0.1 percent on month and 1.5 percent on year.


Malaysia will provide September figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were worth 70.43 billion ringgit and exports were at 81.36 billion ringgit for a trade surplus of 10.92 billion ringgit.


Thailand will release October figure for consumer and producer prices. In September, overall inflation was up 0.1 percent on month and 0.3 percent on year, while core CPI rose 0.1 percent on month and 0.4 percent on year. Producer prices were flat on month and down 1.9 percent on year.


Finally, the markets in Japan are closed on Monday for Culture Day and will re-open on Tuesday.


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Dollar resists pressure, EUR/USD tends to rise





The current week has begun quite calmly for the main world currency. The ISM report on the US manufacturing sector only caused a slight drawback. However, experts are confident in the stability of the US currency and the strengthening of its position. The ISM report, demonstrating the state of the manufacturing sector of the US economy, presented a real picture of what was happening, which did not please the experts too much. Although the ISM index was higher than the September 2019 indicator, it did not reach the expectations of analysts, remaining close to a ten-year low. According to statistics, US production, like imports, fell to 2009 lows. According to experts, these indicators indicate a high probability of further easing of the Federal Reserve policy. Many experts expected a stronger market reaction to the publication of a key US employment report. According to data presented last Friday, job growth slowed down a bit, but remained at an acceptable level (128 thousand instead of the forecasted 85–90 thousand), while the unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.6%. Analysts also recorded an increase in average hourly wages of 0.2% instead of the expected 0.3%. Current data has confirmed a slowdown in the US economy, which is under severe pressure from prolonged trade wars. An additional confirmation of this fact was the fall in business activity in the manufacturing sector (ISM index) below the critical level of 50. The US dollar did not avoid the negative impact. In the chain of "American economy - US currency", it is a key link that accounts for the main blows. The greenback is actively opposing them, but remains under pressure, which intensifies with optimism in the markets. Note that trade disputes have always spurred the growth of the greenback, so the weakening of trade tension will contribute to the demand for other assets to the detriment of the US dollar. The U.S. administration is currently seeking to soften rhetoric, declaring optimism regarding negotiations between America and China. The White House is talking about a possible cancellation of tariffs for European cars. In such a situation, the EUR/USD pair may begin to sag. On the morning of Monday, November 4, it already showed a similar trend, trading near 1.1151–1.1152 marks.





The downward trend caused concern among market participants, as a day earlier the EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1169–1.1170, the highs of August 2019.





According to analysts, the pair is one step away from the key level of 1.1200. Overcoming this milestone, as in the case of the dollar index (DXY), is assessed by the market as a prerequisite for further growth. If this level is overcome, the EUR/USD pair will occupy high positions and maintain them until the end of 2019, experts said. The implementation of such a scenario will raise the pair almost to an unattainable height - up to 1.1400 and above. On Monday, before starting to rise, the EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1157–1.1158. Now the pair has slightly increased to 1,1159–1,1160.





Experts rate high chances that the pair will continue the rally. To implement this scenario, a relatively calm external background is needed, that is, the absence of a hard Brexit, an escalation of the conflict between the US and the EU, as well as the stabilization of Washington-Beijing relations. In this case, the EUR/USD pair, having overcome the key barrier of 1,1200, may begin to move to 1.1260–1.1270. For this, the "bulls" will need to break through the resistance at the levels of 1.1175–1.1190. As for the current sentiment, analysts are confident that market players will seek to close long positions in the dollar. Long-term observations show that the US currency can withstand even the most unfavorable factors. Apart from market volatility and an unstable external background, these include mixed economic data on the US economy and the Fed's attempts to weaken the national currency. Nevertheless, the greenback can cope with the situation. Its strength allows it not to sag under the pressure of negative circumstances, experts conclude.





At the time, the EUR / USD pair reached the level of 1.1165–1.1166, trying to exceed what was achieved.


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Bank Of Japan Minutes On Tap For Wednesday





The Bank of Japan will on Wednesday release the minutes from its September 19 monetary policy meeting, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.


At the meeting, the Policy Board of the BoJ voted 7-2 to maintain interest rate at -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the bank. The bank said it will purchase government bonds so that the yield of 10-year JGBs will remain at around zero percent.


Japan also will see final October numbers for the services and composite PMIs from Jibun Bank; the previous scores were 50.3 and 49.8, respectively.


The central bank in Thailand will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates; the bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at 1.50 percent.


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Australia Has A$7.180 Billion Trade Surplus In September





Australia had a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$7.180 billion in September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.


That handily exceeded forecasts for a surplus of A$5.050 billion following the upwardly revised A$6.617 billion surplus in the previous month (originally A$5.926 billion).


Exports were up A$1.452 billion or 3.0 percent on month to A$43.215 billion, while imports gained A$889 million or 3.0 percent on month to A$36.034 billion.


Net exports of goods under merchanting remained roughly steady at A$15 million.


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Japan Household Spending Jumps 9.5% On Year In September





The average of household spending in Japan was up 9.5 percent on year in real terms in September, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday - coming in at 300,609 yen.


That beat forecasts for an increase of 7.0 percent following the 1.0 percent gain in August.


The average of monthly income per household stood at 457,427 yen, down an annual 0.4 percent.


Individually, spending was up for food, housing, fuel, furniture, clothing, medical care, transportation and recreation.


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