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Australia's Leading Index Continue To Signal Recession: Westpac



Australia's leading index remained in deep negative territory in July but the index appeared to have bottomed out in April, Westpac said Wednesday.

The six-month annualized growth rate in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose to -4.37 percent in July from -4.43 percent in June.

The economic contraction in Victoria caused by the hard lockdown following the renewed virus outbreak will offset the ongoing recovery in other states, said Westpac.

Wespac expects economic growth to be flat in the September quarter before lifting by 2.8 percent in the December quarter on the assumption that Victoria moves through Stage 4 to Stage 2 and the other states avoid 'second wave' outbreaks.

Looking over the six months since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the index still showed a large, broad-based weakening.

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Sri Lanka's Central Bank Keeps Rate On Hold



Sri Lanka's central bank left its key rates unchanged on Thursday after cutting it by 100 basis points last month.

The Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka decided to hold the Standing Deposit Facility Rate at 4.50 percent and the Standing Lending Facility Rate at 5.50 percent.

The bank has reduced the interest rates five times so far this year. The bank had slashed the rates by 100 basis points in July.

The board decided to adopt targeted measures to reduce specific interest rates that it considered to be excessive, which would help marginal borrowers.

The central bank expects the economy to recover in the second half of the year. However, for sustaining the growth momentum beyond the near term would require reforms to address structural issues in the economy, the bank noted.

Inflation is forecast to remain broadly within the desired 4-6 percent range in the near to medium term, with appropriate policy measures.

Given the poor outlook for the economy and mounting political pressure, Alex Holmes, an economist at Capital Economics, said the easing cycle has further to run.

The economist expects 50 basis points of rate cuts for the remainder of this year and another 50 basis points of cuts in 2021.

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Japan Manufacturing PMI Improves To 46.6 In July - Jibun Bank



The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to contract in July, albeit at a weaker pace, the latest survey from Jibun Bank showed on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 46.6.

That's up from 45.2 in June, although it remains beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The survey also showed that the services PMI fell to 45.0 from 45.4 in June, while the composite PMI was unchanged at 44.9.

Individually, output, new orders, new export orders, employment, backlogs of work, output prices, input prices and future output all remained in contraction territory.

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New Zealand Retail Sales Plummet In Q2 Lockdown



Retail sales values in New Zealand tumbled 15 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2020 during the Covid-19 lockdown, Statistics New Zealand said on Monday - marking the largest drop on record going back 25 years.

The total volume of retail sales dropped 14 percent on quarter.

Individually, declines were led by food and beverage services, down 40 percent (NZ$1.2 billion); fuel retailing, down 35 percent (NZ$770 million); motor vehicle and parts retailing, down 22 percent (NZ$729 million); and accommodation, down 44 percent (NZ$418 million).

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South Korea Consumer Confidence Improves In August



South Korea's consumer confidence improved for the fourth straight month in August, survey results from Bank of Korea showed on Tuesday.

The consumer confidence index rose to 88.2 in August from 84.2 in July.

The indicator measuring current living standards remained unchanged at 85 in August, while that concerning the outlook for living standards rose two points to 89.

Consumer sentiment related to future household income increased two points to 92 and future spending index grew four points to 99.

Consumer sentiment concerning current domestic conditions and future domestic economic conditions rose five points each to 54 and 75.

The expected inflation rate for the following year was 1.8 percent versus 1.7 percent a month ago.

The survey was conducted among 2,500 households between August 10 and 14.

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European Economics Preview: French Consumer Confidence Data Due



Consumer sentiment data from France is due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, unemployment data is due from Statistics Norway. The jobless rate is forecast to rise to 4.7 percent in June.

At 2.45 am ET, the French statistical office Insee publishes consumer sentiment survey data for August. The consumer confidence index is expected to remain unchanged at 94. At 4.00 am ET, Swiss ZEW expectations survey data is due.

At 5.00 am ET, Iceland's central bank announces its interest rate decision.

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South Korea Keeps Rate Unchanged; Cuts GDP Outlook



South Korea's central bank left its key interest rates unchanged at a record low and downgraded its GDP outlook as authorities enhanced coronavirus containment measures.

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea decided to hold its key policy rate at 0.50 percent. As economic growth is expected to be sluggish and inflationary pressures on the demand side are forecast to remain weak due to the covid-19 pandemic, the Board will maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance, the bank said in a statement on Thursday.

Policymakers observed that the recovery of domestic growth is likely to be slower than previously forecast due to the domestic resurgence of Covid-19.

The bank forecast the economy to shrink 1.3 percent this year instead of 0.2 percent projected previously. Uncertainties around the future path of GDP growth are also judged to be very high, the bank said.

At the same time, inflation outlook was lifted to 0.4 percent from 0.3 percent.

It is forecast that consumer price inflation and core inflation will run at the mid-zero percent level this year, reflecting prolonged effects from the drop in global oil prices and weak demand-side inflationary pressures.

With little space left for more policy rate cuts, the BoK is more likely to turn to unconventional measures, Alex Holmes, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

Given that the Bank has already made a vague commitment to reduce "excess volatility" in long term bond yields, the most likely next step is an explicit yield target, which would be more effective in driving down long-term yields and supporting the economy, Holmes added.

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Japan Inflation Eases In August



Japanese Tokyo inflation eased in August after rising in the previous month, data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs showed on Friday.

The consumer price index increased 0.3 percent year-on-year in August, slower than 0.6 percent rise July. In June, inflation was 0.3 percent.

Core CPI fell 0.3 percent in August, after a 0.4 percent rise in the previous month. Economists had expected a 0.3 percent rise.

On a monthly basis, core prices fell 0.6 percent in August, after a 0.3 percent rise in the prior month. Excluding fresh food and energy, consumer prices fell 0.7 percent monthly, after a 0.3 percent increase in July.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, consumer prices fell 0.4 percent in August, reversing a 0.3 percent rise in the preceding month.

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Australia Private Sector Credit Eases 0.1% In July



Total private sector credit in Australia was down 0.1 percent on month in July, the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Monday - following the 0.2 percent decline in June.

On a yearly basis, private sector credit advanced 2.4 percent - slowing from the 2.9 percent gain in the previous month.

Individually, housing credit was up 0.2 percent on month and 3.1 percent on year, while personal credit tumbled 1.8 percent on month and 12.1 percent on year and business credit fell 0.6 percent on month and gained 3.7 percent on year.

Broad money was up 0.9 percent on month and 10.7 percent on year.

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Aussie Slightly Up After RBA Decision



The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark lending rate at 0.25 percent, as expected. Following the announcement, the aussie rose slightly against its major rivals.

The aussie was trading at 78.21 against the yen, 1.6197 against the euro, 0.7405 against the greenback and 1.0956 against the kiwi around 12:34 am ET.

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