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CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI EBBS IN JANUARY - CAIXIN



The manufacturing sector in China continued to expand in January, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from Caixin showed on Monday with a seasonally adjusted PMI score of 51.5.

That's down from 53.0, although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Chinese goods producers signaled a sustained rise in output during January, to extend the current period of expansion to 11 months. That said, the rate of growth was the least marked since last April and modest. The slowdown coincided with a weaker increase in total new work at the start of the year.

Data indicated this was partly driven by a renewed drop in export orders, which fell for the first time in six months. Survey respondents often cited the resurgence of the COVID-19 virus globally when explaining the reduction.

Stock shortages at suppliers and shipping delays led to a further increase in delivery times for inputs. Furthermore, average vendor performance deteriorated at the steepest rate since last March.

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AUSTRALIA CB HOLDS KEY RATE; LIFTS QE



Australia's central bank left its key interest rate unchanged on Tuesday and raised the size of the asset purchase programme.

The board decided to maintain the targets of 10 basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond, as well as the parameters of the Term Funding Facility.

But the board decided to buy an additional A$100 billion of bonds issued by the Australian Government and states and territories when the current bond purchase program is completed in mid April. These additional purchases will be at the current rate of A$5 billion a week.

The bank is not expecting to raise its interest rates until 2024.

Policymakers expect the economic recovery to continue, with the central scenario being for GDP to grow by 3.5 percent over both 2021 and 2022. GDP is expected to return to its end-2019 level by the middle of this year.

Both inflation and wages growth are forecast to pick up, but to do so only gradually, with both remaining below 2 percent over the next couple of years, the board said. In underlying terms, inflation is expected to be 1.25 percent over 2021 and 1.5 percent over 2022.

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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: EUROZONE FLASH CONSUMER PRICES, FINAL PMI DATA DUE



Flash consumer prices and final composite Purchasing Managers' survey results are due from euro area on Wednesday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Turkish Statistical Institute releases consumer and producer price figures for January. Economists expect inflation to rise to 14.68 percent from 14.6 percent in December.

At 3.15 am ET, IHS Markit releases Spain's services PMI data. The index is seen at 45.3 in January, down from 48.0 in December.

At 3.45 am ET, Italy's services PMI data is due. The services index is expected to fall to 39.5 in January from 39.7 a month ago.

Thereafter, final PMI figures are due from France and Germany at 3.50 am and 3.55 am ET, respectively.

At 3.55 am ET, Iceland's central bank is set to announce its interest rate decision.

At 4.00 am ET, IHS Markit publishes euro area composite PMI survey results. The final reading is seen at 47.5 in January, unchanged from flash estimate.

At 4.30 am ET, UK final composite PMI data is due. According to flash estimate, the composite index fell sharply to an eight-month low of 40.6 in January from 50.4 in December.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat publishes euro area flash consumer and producer price figures. Economists forecast consumer prices to rise 0.5 percent annually in January, in contrast to a fall of 0.3 percent in December.

Also, at 5.00 am, Italy's Istat releases flash consumer price figures for January. Consumer prices are forecast to drop 0.1 percent annually after easing 0.2 percent in December.

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NEW ZEALAND BUSINESS CONFIDENCE STRENGTHENS IN FEBRUARY



New Zealand business confidence strengthened in February, flash survey data from ANZ showed on Thursday.

The business sentiment index rose to 11.8 in February from 9.4 in December. The own activity outlook index advanced to 22.3 from 21.7 in the previous month.

However, there was a sharp rise in costs, dampening profitability, the survey showed.

Expected costs advanced 14 points in February. Firms are intending to pass the costs on where they can, with a net 49 percent of firms intending to raise their prices.

Inflation expectations lifted too, from 1.65 percent to 1.78 percent, another step closer to the 2 percent central bank's CPI target midpoint.

The profit expectations index slid to 0.5 from 6.8 in the previous survey period. The employment intentions climbed to 10.6 from 8.8. Final data is due on February 25.

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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY FACTORY ORDERS DATA DUE



Factory orders from Germany and Halifax house prices from the UK are due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is slated to issue Germany's factory orders for December. Economists forecast orders to fall 1 percent on month, reversing a 2.3 percent rise in November. In the meantime, industrial production data is due from Statistics Norway.

At 2.45 am ET, current account and foreign trade reports are due from France.

At 3.00 am ET, retail sales from the Czech Republic and industrial production from Hungary are due.

Hungary's industrial output is forecast to climb 2.0 percent annually in December, following a 3.5 percent rise in November.

Half an hour later, UK Halifax house price report is due. Monthly house price growth is seen at 0.3 percent in January versus +0.2 percent in December. Also, Statistics Sweden publishes industrial production and orders at 3.30 am.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's Istat releases retail sales data for December. Sales had dropped 6.9 percent on month in November.

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FITCH MAINTAINS JAPAN'S SOVEREIGN RATINGS



Fitch Ratings maintained the sovereign ratings of Japan with a 'negative' outlook on Monday.

The ratings were retained at 'A' citing the strengths of an advanced and wealthy economy, with correspondingly robust governance standards and public institutions.

Fitch affirmed a 'negative' outlook on Japan's ratings, given continued downside risks to the macroeconomic and fiscal outlook from the coronavirus shock.

The agency expects the large fiscal support to be unwound gradually, but downside risks to growth exacerbate the challenge of placing the debt ratio on a downward path over the medium term.

After a 5.3 percent fall in 2020, Fitch forecast the economy to rebound by 3.5 percent in 2021 and 1.5 percent in 2022, supported by continued overseas demand for Japanese exports, which have recovered over recent months.

Fitch estimated government debt to have jumped to 254.8 percent of GDP in 2020 from 231.2 percent in 2019, the highest pre-pandemic debt ratio among Fitch-rated sovereigns. The debt is forecast to peak at 258.6 percent in 2023.

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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMAN FOREIGN TRADE DATA DUE



Foreign trade data from Germany is due on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is slated to issue Germany's foreign trade figures. Economists forecast exports to fall 1 percent on month, reversing a 2.2 percent rise in November. Imports are seen easing 1.1 percent after rising 4.7 percent a month ago.

Germany's trade surplus is expected to fall to EUR 15.9 billion from EUR 16.4 billion in November.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's Istat publishes industrial output data for December. Production is expected to grow 0.3 percent, in contrast to a 1.4 percent drop in November.

At 5.00 am ET, December industrial production report is due from Greece. Production had increased 8.6 percent on a yearly basis in November.

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CHINA CONSUMER PRICES RISE 1.0% ON MONTH IN JANUARY



Consumer prices in China were up 1.0 percent on month in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - in line with expectations following the 0.7 percent increase in December.

On a yearly basis, consumer prices fell 0.3 percent - shy of expectations for a flat reading following the 0.2 percent gain in the previous month.

The bureau also said that producer prices rose 0.3 percent on year in January - missing forecasts for an increase of 0.4 percent after sinking 0.4 percent a month earlier.

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NEW ZEALAND ELECTRONIC CARD TRANSACTIONS SLIP 0.4% IN JANUARY



The total value of electronic card transactions in New Zealand was down a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent on month or NZ$24 million in January, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday - following the 19.2 percent spike in December.

Spending in the core retail industries slipped 0.7 percent on month or NZ$39 million.

On a yearly basis, electronic retail card spending was up 1.9 percent - slowing from 3.5 percent in the previous month.

By industry, the movements were: durables, up NZ$34 million (2.1 percent); motor vehicles (excluding fuel), up NZ$3 million (1.7 percent); fuel, down NZ$1 million (0.3 percent); apparel, down NZ$7 million (2.0 percent); and consumables, down NZ$31 million (1.3 percent).

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NEW ZEALAND FOOD PRICES CLIMB AN UNADJUSTED 1.3% IN JANUARY



Food prices in New Zealand were up an unadjusted 1.3 percent on month in January, Statistics New Zealand said on Friday.

Seasonally adjusted, food prices were flat on month.

In January 2021 compared with December 2020: fruit and vegetable prices rose 1.7 percent (down 1.4 percent after seasonal adjustment); meat, poultry, and fish prices rose 1.1 percent; grocery food prices rose 1.8 percent (up 0.8 percent after seasonal adjustment); non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 2.5 percent; and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices rose 0.3 percent.

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