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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMAN IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE



Business sentiment survey results from Germany and France are due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office Insee publishes business sentiment survey results. The business confidence index is expected to drop to 106 in November from 107 in October.

At 3.00 am ET, business sentiment data is due from the Czech Republic.

At 4.00 am ET, Germany's ifo Institute is scheduled to issue business sentiment data. The confidence index is seen at 96.6 in November versus 97.7 in October.

At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry releases Industrial Trends survey results. The order book balance is expected to improve to 13 in November from 9 in the previous month.

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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY REVISED GDP, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DUE



Revised quarterly national accounts and consumer sentiment survey results are due from Germany on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's GDP data for the third quarter. According to initial estimate, the economy had expanded 1.8 percent sequentially, after rising 1.9 percent in the second quarter.

In the meantime, the market research group Gfk is slated to issue Germany's consumer confidence survey results. The forward-looking sentiment index is seen at -0.5 in December versus +0.9 in November.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE is slated to issue producer prices data for October. Prices had advanced 23.6 percent annually in September.

Half an hour later, Sweden's central bank announces its monetary policy decision. In the meantime, Statistics Sweden issues producer prices and household lending data. At 4.00 am ET, Poland's unemployment data is due. The jobless rate is seen at 5.5 percent in October versus 5.6 percent in September.

At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry releases Distributive Trades survey results.

At 7.30 am ET, the European Central Bank publishes the account of the monetary policy meeting of the governing council held on October 27 and 28.

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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: SWISS GDP DATA DUE



Quarterly national accounts data from Switzerland is due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's import prices for October. Import price inflation is expected to climb to 19.6 percent from 17.7 percent in September.

In the meantime, retail sales and household consumption figures are due from Norway.

At 2.45 am ET, France Insee is scheduled to issue consumer sentiment survey results. The confidence index is expected to fall marginally to 98 in November from 99 in October.

At 3.00 am ET, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, or SECO, releases Swiss GDP data for the third quarter. Economists forecast the economy to grow 2 percent sequentially after rising 1.8 percent in the second quarter. In the meantime, economic tendency survey results are due from Sweden.

At 3.30 am ET, Statistics Sweden publishes retail sales for October. Sales had dropped 0.3 percent on month in September.

At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank releases monetary aggregates for October. M3 is forecast to grow 7.4 percent annually, the same rate as seen in September.

Also, business confidence from Italy and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' survey results from Austria are due.

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DUTCH PRODUCER CONFIDENCE IMPROVES IN NOVEMBER



Dutch producer confidence improves in November, data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.

The producer sentiment index rose to 12.7 in November from 12.3 in October. This was above the average score of 0.7 seen over the past twenty years.

The latest reading was the strongest since 1985.

Producers were particularly positive about the order position, while assessment of stocks of finished goods improved, the agency said.

There were more entrepreneurs who expected their production to increase in the coming three months, the agency said.

The producers in the electrical and machine industry were more positive in November.

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ESTONIA RETAIL SALES RISE IN OCTOBER



Estonia retail sales increased in October, data from Statistics Estonia showed on Tuesday.

Retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and motor cycles trade, rose 10.0 percent year-on-year in October.

"In October, turnover increased in grocery stores and in stores selling manufactured goods as well as in enterprises engaged in the retail sale of automotive fuel," Jaanika Tiigiste, leading analyst at Statistics Estonia, said.

The biggest increase was seen in stores selling manufacturing goods, by 16.0 percent and stores selling household goods and appliances, hardware and building materials rose 21.0 percent.

On a monthly basis, retail sales fell 2.0 percent in October.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales gained 1.0 percent monthly in October.

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CHINA MANUFACTURING SECTOR FALLS INTO CONTRACTION - CAIXIN



The manufacturing sector in China slipped into contraction territory in November, the latest survey from Caixin revealed on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.9.

That's down from 50.6 in October and it falls beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Chinese manufacturing output rose for the first time since July during November, though the rate of expansion was only fractional. Panel members indicated that firmer market conditions and a relative improvement in energy supply had supported higher production. That said, subdued customer demand, rising costs and limited power supply at some firms dampened overall growth.

Total new work fell marginally in November, following two months of expansion. Some firms linked relatively muted demand conditions to the pandemic and high output prices. New work from abroad also fell, albeit at the softest rate for four months, amid reports of reduced foreign demand due to the ongoing pandemic and challenges in shipping items to clients.

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AUSTRALIA HOME LOANS SINK 4.1% IN OCTOBER



The value of owner-occupied home loans in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 4.1 percent on month in October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at A$19.84 billion.

That missed forecasts for an increase of 1.0 percent following the 2.7 percent decline in September.

Investment lending was up 1.1 percent to A$9.73 billion after gaining 1.4 percent in the previous month.

Overall home loans were worth A$29.57 billion, down 2.5 percent on month.

On a yearly basis, owner occupied loans were up 15.1 percent, investment lending skyrocketed 89.6 percent and overall lending surged 32.2 percent.

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FITCH LOWERS TURKEY'S SOVEREIGN RATING OUTLOOK



Fitch Ratings downgraded the outlook on Turkey's sovereign ratings to Negative from Stable, citing various risks to macroeconomic and financial stability and potential external financing pressures.

The rating agency said the central bank's premature monetary policy easing cycle and the prospect of further rate cuts or additional economic stimulus ahead of the 2023 presidential election have led to a deterioration in domestic confidence, reflected in a sharp depreciation of the Turkish lira and rising inflation.

These developments create risks to macroeconomic and financial stability and could potentially re-ignite external financing pressures, Fitch noted.

Further, the agency viewed that the proximity of the 2023 electoral cycle will have an impact on policy direction and expectations of economic actors.

The sovereign ratings were affirmed at 'BB-'. The credit ratings reflect weak monetary policy credibility, high inflation, low external liquidity in the context of high financing requirements and geopolitical risks.

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AUSTRALIA DATA ON TAP FOR MONDAY



Australia will on Monday see November figures for job ads and inflation, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

In October, the job advertisement survey from ANZ was up 6.2 percent on month, while the inflation gauge from TD Securities was up 0.2 percent on month.

Also, the markets in Thailand are closed on Monday in observance of the late King Bhumibol's birthday; they'll re-open on Tuesday.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Euro believed in itself and pushed the US dollar aside



The European currency was under strong pressure at the beginning of this week, fluctuating on the verge of a serious collapse. However, it found balance and tried to rise, pulling the EUR/USD pair to a new level.

In view of a relatively volatile US dollar, the euro steadily fell, occasionally rising to an acceptable level. Experts did not give it a chance, because the ECB's "dovish" strategy was acting against it. It can be recalled that the European regulator adheres to the position of non-interference in the current monetary policy, refusing to curtail incentives and raise rates. It seems that the ECB is following the path of the Fed, which until recently insisted on the "temporary" nature of inflation. Now, its European colleague is doing this.

The US currency retains its basic strength against the European one. It is supported by market expectations about the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy and the prospect of a rate hike in May next year. According to preliminary calculations, three rate increases are expected in 2022, starting from the last month of spring. This decision is facilitated by the revival of inflation expectations in the United States, which recovered after falling to the highs of November 2021.

Analysts explain the current strengthening of the indicator by the "hawkish" attitude of the Fed, whose representatives ignored weak data on the US labor market (nonfarm payrolls). The focus is on the upcoming report on US inflation, which may cover the negative impact of Nonfarm data. According to preliminary estimates, US consumer prices in November increased to 6.7% year-on-year.

At the moment, there is a situation in the market that is not too favorable for the US currency. Experts have recorded an increase in risk sentiment and a departure from the "safe haven" currencies, primarily from the USD. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1294. The euro managed to make an upturn and catch up a little. A day earlier, the Euro currency was trading in the range of 1.1263-1.1266.

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