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Bitcoin has risen sharply in price after a loud fall the day before

At the auction on Tuesday, the value of the first cryptocurrency shows a steady growth of 6%. At one point digital gold has jumped the $41,400 mark.

Throughout the day, the virtual asset market was recovering after a spectacular decline the day before. Yesterday, bitcoin collapsed to $38,500, updating the local low in mid-March, but today the coin has easily won back the fall.



According to Binance, the largest exchange in terms of trading volume of virtual assets, over the past 24 hours BTC has gained 5.83% in value and is trading at $41,480. % - up to $41,504.

Since the beginning of April, the quotes of the first cryptocurrency have been below market forecasts amid negative events in world markets, as well as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. So, during the current month, bitcoin has already fallen in price by almost 9%.

According to the results of the first quarter of 2022, the cost of digital gold lost 1.5%. At the same time, the past March was a rather favorable period for the asset, as a result of which it reported growth by 10%, having strengthened for the second consecutive month.

Recall that bitcoin lost more than 16% in January, and its price increased by 12% in February.

The BTC updated its historical record in November 2021, soaring above $69,000. Since then, the cryptocurrency has moved into a steady decline.

According to the results of the past year, the cost of bitcoin increased 1.6 times - to $46,200 from $28,900.

Experts call the Russian-Ukrainian conflict the main downward factor for the digital currency market today. Analysts are confident that the sooner the tense geopolitical situation begins to stabilize, the more confident the digital asset market will feel in the short term. After reaching peace agreements, the economy will need to be restored, which will require a lot of money. One of the components of this tangible amount of funds will be cryptocurrency. In this case, the digital asset market will receive a spectacular impetus and rush to growth.

On Tuesday, the leading altcoins from the top 10 by capitalization willingly adopted the trend of the main virtual asset and also began to effectively increase in price. As a result, over the past 24 hours, the Ethereum token has grown by 4.5%, Solana by 6%, and Terra by 14%.

According to the world's largest virtual asset data aggregator CoinGecko, over the past day, the total capitalization of the crypto market has grown by 4.5% to $1.89 trillion.

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USD/CAD: Loonie is confused by ups and downs and looks to the downside, then to the upside



The Canadian dollar started the week on the rise, and ends it in some confusion. After disappointing macro statistics and another round of inflation, the loonie significantly fell. However, the loonie is trying to "keep face" and is looking for ways out of this situation.

The Canadian dollar strengthened against the US dollar in the middle of the week, reaching 1.2584. However, after four days of growth, the USD/CAD pair showed a downward momentum, retreating from the local high at 1.2644. To date, the pair is struggling to hold its positions, but is determined to catch up. On Thursday, April 21, the USD/CAD pair traded at 1.2480, leaning to the downside and upside from time to time.

The "loonie" was tripped up by the growing inflation recorded in Canada. According to current data, consumer inflation in the country accelerated to 6.7% in March, exceeding forecasts. Recall that this figure was 5.7% in February. Against this background, the Bank of Canada is interested in raising interest rates above current levels. The central bank's immediate goals are to curb inflation without provoking a recession in the economy.

The pressure on the USD/CAD pair is exerted by the growing US currency. According to analysts, the resistance to the dollar is draining the loonies. In the future, the loonie will sink even more in relation to the greenback, however, it will strengthen against the euro.

The Canadian currency was supported by the increase in the key rate by the Bank of Canada (by 50 bp) recorded last week. In addition, the central bank announced the start of quantitative tightening in response to accelerating inflation.

The Canadian economy got a head start thanks to rising prices for commodities and energy. This contributes to the decisive actions of the Bank of Canada, aimed at normalizing monetary policy. The country's economy is on the winning side compared to other states that are importers of energy and hydrocarbons. In such a situation, the CAD receives tripartite support: from a significant influx of money into the country, from the growth of business activity and the potential tightening of the central bank's monetary policy.

According to experts, galloping inflation is a weighty argument for further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Canada. The implementation of such a scenario will strengthen the position of the Canadian dollar in the medium term. In such a situation, experts recommend holding short positions on the USD/CAD pair with a target of 1.2450.

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Dollar remains a financial shield, and the euro is afraid of collapse, not wanting to be overboard



The European currency, the greenback's rival for the EUR/USD pair, is still in limbo.

The dollar has had an impressive rally this month, which is now gradually slowing down. The catalyst for this was the decline in the yield of 10-year treasuries, the growth of which stalled near 3%. To date, long-term US Treasuries have tested zero for the first time since 2020.

The American currency is supported by two powerful drivers - the expectation of an early rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Earlier, Mary Daly, the head of the San Francisco Fed, confirmed the central bank's plans to bring the rate to 2.5% by the end of 2022. According to the FOMC representative, an increase in interest rates by 50 bps is possible "at several Fed meetings." James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, agrees with this opinion. The politician allows the central bank to raise the rate by 75 bp at once. Recall that the head of the Fed of St. Louis is in the forefront of the Fed in the issue of aggressively raising rates in order to curb inflation.

Despite the local weakening of the US currency, it retains a strong potential for growth. In addition to expectations of an early rise in the Fed rate and the launch of a quantitative tightening program, the USD is supported by the risk aversion of traders. Experts attribute the decline in risk appetite to the sliding of the global economy into recession.

The greenback shows caution against this background, maintaining its strength, but not demonstrating it. The greenback rose slightly against the euro on Thursday evening, April 21, reaching 1.0847. The EUR/USD pair was cruising near 1.0815 on the morning of Friday, April 22, trying not to slide to the bottom.


According to experts, the current mood in the currency markets is positive for the US currency, which cannot be said about the European one. According to the calculations of Nordea economists, at the end of 2022, the EUR/USD pair will be near 1.1000, and over the next three months it will test the 1.0500 mark.

The catalyst for the recent rally of the EUR/USD pair was the hawkish comments of the European Central Bank leaders. According to Martins Kazaks, a representative of the central bank, an increase in the key rate is possible in July. The policy was supported by Luis de Guindos, vice-president of the ECB, who expects the QE program to be curtailed in the specified month.

The current vulnerability of the euro is fueled by the prolonged Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The tension in relations between Europe and Russia increases uncertainty in the dynamics of the euro and calls into question the economic prospects of the eurozone.

As for the dynamics of the dollar, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, on the contrary, played into the hands of the latter. At the same time, experts are confident that the current geopolitical confrontation will affect the European economy more than the American one. Against this background, on the wave of growth, the greenback returned to pre-pandemic levels, maintaining the status of a reliable protective asset.

The USD was strengthened by the expectation of an economic recovery in the United States, capable of outstripping that in other countries. The implementation of such a scenario will allow the Fed to begin the cycle of monetary tightening faster. However, there are pitfalls here, the main one of which is the high risk of recession in the US economy. A sharp drop in the purchasing power of American households can slow down economic growth in the United States. Adding fuel to the fire is the likelihood of an aggressive tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.

As for the prospects of the European economy and the euro, they will improve only if the geopolitical conflict is offset. However, this is still far away, as the euro is in a situation in which something bad could happen to it at any time and it is seriously worrying the markets. According to Thomas Mayer, former chief economist at Deutsche Bank, the euro is rapidly losing stability. According to the analyst, the European Union is threatened by prolonged inflation, the result of which will be the "destruction of the euro." At the same time, the ECB continues to print banknotes, but does nothing to normalize the economy, Mayer believes. According to the expert, strong inflation in the eurozone threatens negative long-term economic and social consequences.

Earlier, Alexandre del Valle, a French political scientist and economist, announced the possible collapse of the euro. The analyst paid special attention to anti-Russian sanctions that could push the single currency and the eurobloc economy into the abyss. Del Valle accused the White House of pushing the European Union to tighten sanctions and abandon Russian energy carriers, stressing that these measures would lead "to the collapse of the euro and an explosion in prices." At the same time, the United States imposes its shale gas on the Europeans, which is more expensive than Russian LNG.

The current situation is undermining the positions of the EUR/USD pair. However, experts are counting on the relative stability of the pair in the medium term. According to ING bank economists, in the coming months the EUR/USD pair will consolidate in a wide range of 1.0500-1.1000. In 2023, the existing monetary trends will not lose relevance. The Fed is expected to approach the peak of monetary tightening, and the ECB will continue its hawkish monetary cycle, albeit at a slower pace. The implementation of such a scenario will allow the EUR/USD pair to strengthen to 1.1600 and remain in this range during 2023, Nordea Bank believes.

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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE



Business confidence survey data from Germany is due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 3.00 am ET, the Turkish Statistical Office releases manufacturing confidence survey data for April. In the meantime, Spain producer prices data is due for March. Prices had increased 40.7 percent year-on-year in February.

At 4.00 am ET, the ifo Institute is scheduled to issue Germany's business climate survey report for April. Economists expect the sentiment index to fall to 89.1 from 90.8 in the previous month.

At 5.00 am ET, eurozone construction output is due from Eurostat.

At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry publishes Industrial Trends survey results. The order book balance is seen at 21 in April versus 26 in March.

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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE



South Korea's gross domestic product was up a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2022, the Bank of Korea said in Tuesday's advance estimate.

That exceeded expectations for an increase of 0.6 percent following the 1.2 percent expansion in the previous three months.

On a yearly basis, GDP rose 3.1 percent - again beating forecasts for 2.8 percent and down from 4.2 percent in the three months prior.

Real gross domestic income increased 0.6 percent on quarter and 0.1 percent on year.

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AUSTRALIA INFLATION JUMPS 5.1% ON YEAR IN Q1



Consumer prices in Australia climbed 5.1 percent on year in the first quarter of 2022, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - beating forecasts for an increase of 4.6 percent and accelerating from 3.5 percent in the previous three months.

On a quarterly basis, inflation jumped 2.1 percent - again exceeding expectations for a gain of 1.7 percent and up from 1.3 percent in the three months prior.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean came in at 1.4 percent on quarter and 3.7 percent on year, up from 1.0 percent on quarter and 2.6 percent on year in the previous quarter.

The RBA's weighted median was up 1.0 percent on quarter and 3.2 percent on year after rising 0.9 percent on quarter and 2.7 percent on year three months earlier.

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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY FLASH INFLATION DATA DUE



Flash inflation from Germany and economic confidence survey results from eurozone are due on Thursday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Statistics Sweden releases quarterly GDP data and retail sales figures for the first quarter. The economy is expected to shrink 0.5 percent sequentially, in contrast to the 1.1 percent expansion in the fourth quarter.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE is scheduled to issue flash consumer prices and unemployment data. EU harmonized inflation is expected to ease to 9 percent in April from 9.8 percent in March.

In the meantime, economic confidence survey data from Sweden and Turkey are due.

Half an hour later, Sweden's central bank announces its monetary policy decision. The bank is expected to hold its repo rate at zero percent.

At 4.00 am ET, business and consumer confidence survey results are due from Italy.

At 5.00 am ET, the European Commission is scheduled to issue Euro area economic confidence survey data for April. The economic sentiment index is forecast to fall to 108.0 from 108.5 in March.

At 8.00 am ET, Destatis publishes Germany's flash consumer and harmonized inflation data for April. Consumer price inflation is expected to ease marginally to 7.2 percent from a record 7.3 percent in March.

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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: EUROZONE GDP DATA DUE



First quarter national accounts for the euro currency bloc as well as from several member states including Germany, France, Spain and Italy are due on Friday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 1.30 am ET, the French statistical office Insee releases GDP data and consumer spending for March. The economy is forecast to grow 0.3 percent in the first quarter, slower than the 0.7 percent expansion seen in the preceding period.

At 2.00 am ET, import prices data from Germany is due. Import price inflation is seen at 28.6 percent in March versus 26.3 percent in February.

At 2.45 am ET, France statistical office Insee publishes consumer and producer prices. Consumer price inflation is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.5 percent in April.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE releases quarterly GDP and retail sales data. Economists expect the economic growth to slow to 0.5 percent in the first quarter from 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021.

At 4.00 am ET, quarterly national accounts data from Germany and Italy are due. The largest eurozone economy is forecast to grow 0.1 percent in the first quarter, reversing a 0.3 percent fall a quarter ago. Italy's GDP is expected to fall 0.2 percent after an expansion of 0.6 percent.

Also, monetary aggregates data is due from the European Central Bank.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is set to release flash GDP and inflation figures. The eurozone is expected to log a steady growth of 0.3 percent in the first quarter. Inflation is expected to climb further to another record 7.5 percent in April from 7.4 percent in March.

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JAPAN MANUFACTURING SECTOR SLOWS IN APRIL - JIBUN



The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to expand in April, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Jibun Bank showed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 53.5.

That's down from 54.1 in March although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The lower reading of the headline index was partly the result of a softer rise in new orders. Sales increased for the seventh month running, though growth eased to a milder pace overall. Firms commented that growth was held back by delivery delays and the Russia-Ukraine war. Geopolitical tensions and rising COVID-19 cases in China continued to weigh heavily on export orders, which fell solidly for the second month running.

Production levels increased for the second successive month in April, with the rate of growth little-changed from March. Firms linked the expansion to rising new orders, though difficulty securing inputs had prevented an acceleration in growth.

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SOUTH KOREA INFLATION JUMPS 4.8% ON YEAR IN APRIL



Consumer prices in South Korea were up 4.8 percent on year in April, Statistics Korea said on Tuesday.

That exceeded expectations for an increase of 4.4 percent and was up from 4.1 percent in March.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.7 percent - again topping forecasts for an increase of 0.4 percent and unchanged from the previous month's reading.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile costs of food, was up 0.4 percent on month and 3.1 percent on year - accelerating from 0.1 percent on month and 2.9 percent on year a month earlier.

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