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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on November 22, 2023

Market trends do not unfold continuously as periodic pullbacks could happen. That is exactly what happened yesterday, despite the extremely weak data on existing home sales in the US, which fell by 4.1%, and has been decreasing for five consecutive months, with a total reduction of 11.9%.

At the beginning of the year, US home sales declined by 6.0%, but in February, it improved slightly, showing a 13.8% increase. Even so, the cumulative decrease is quite significant, naturally not inspiring any optimism. This should have resulted in dollar weakening, but pound fell instead.

The Fed's hawkish stance on monetary policy could not be the reason as the meeting took place before the sharp slowdown in inflation became known. Most likely, the movement is a technical rebound, which means that dollar will show its expected decline soon, especially since today, data on durable goods orders will be published. The figure is expected to fall by 2.8%. The potential 5,000 increase in jobless claims may also spark further dollar weakening.



EUR/USD hit the lower range of the psychological level of 1.0950/1.1000, resulting in a decrease in the volume of long positions. This led to a pullback, which may also be due to the overbought condition of euro.

Looking at the RSI H4, there is an exit from the overbought area due to the pullback.

In the daily period, the indicator is moving near the 70 zone.

As for the Alligator H4 indicator, it ignored the pullback, with the moving MA lines pointing upwards.

Outlook
For further decline, traders need to keep the price below 1.0900, as that will spark a complete correction. Alternatively, there could be a decrease in the volume of short positions around the level of 1.0900, treating it as support. In this scenario, there will be another attempt to break the psychological level of 1.1000.

The complex indicator analysis points to an upward cycle in the short-term, medium-term and intraday periods.

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NZ DOLLAR RISES AGAINST MAJORS





The New Zealand dollar strengthened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Thursday.


The NZ dollar rose to a 1-week high of 90.28 against the yen and a 2-day high of 1.8005 against the euro, from yesterday's closing quotes of 89.99 and 1.8084, respectively.


Against the U.S. and the Australian dollars, the kiwi edged up to 0.6054 and 1.0829 from Wednesday's closing quotes of 0.6021 and 1.0866, respectively.


If the kiwi extends its uptrend, it is likely to find resistance around 92.00 against the yen, 1.78 against the euro, 0.57 against the greenback and 1.06 against the aussie.


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EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMANY GDP, BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE



Quarterly national accounts and business sentiment survey results from Germany are due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's detailed GDP data for the third quarter. The initial estimate showed that the largest euro area economy contracted 0.1 percent sequentially, offsetting the 0.1 percent rise a quarter ago.

In the meantime, Statistics Sweden is set to release producer prices for October. At 3.00 am ET, Spain's statistical office INE releases producer price data for October. Prices had declined 8.6 percent annually in September.

At 4.00 am ET, Germany's ifo business confidence survey results for November are due. The business climate index is expected to rise to 87.5 from 86.9 in the previous month.

At 5.00 am ET, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is set to speak at an event organized by the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.

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CHINA INDUSTRIAL PROFITS CONTINUE TO RISE



China industrial profits continued to increase in October albeit at a slower pace, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. Industrial profits grew 2.7 percent on a yearly basis in October. The pace of increase slowed notably from the 11.9 percent rise posted in September.

During January to October, industrial profits decreased 7.8 percent from the same period last year. Nonetheless, this was slightly slower than the 9 percent decline seen in the first nine months of the year, data showed.

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EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMANY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DUE



Consumer confidence survey results from Germany and France are due on Tuesday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the market research group Gfk is scheduled to issue Germany's consumer confidence survey results. The forward-looking consumer sentiment is expected to rise to -27.9 in December from -28.1 in November.

At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office INSEE publishes consumer sentiment survey results. Economists forecast the consumer sentiment index to remain unchanged at 84 in November. At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank releases monetary aggregates for October. M3 is forecast to fall 0.9 percent annually after declining 1.2 percent in September.

In the meantime, manufacturing Purchasing Managers' survey results are due from Austria.

At 6.00 am ET, retail sales data for October is due from Ireland.

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NZ DOLLAR RISES AGAINST MAJORS



The New Zealand dollar strengthened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Wednesday.

The NZ dollar rose to nearly a 4-month high of 0.6209 against the U.S. dollar, from yesterday's closing value of 0.6136.

The kiwi advanced to nearly a 2-week high of 91.22 against the yen, from a recent 6-day low of 90.23.

Against the euro and the Australian dollar, the kiwi climbed to 1-1/2-month highs of 1.7742 and 1.0729 from yesterday's closing quotes of 1.7908 and 1.0833, respectively.

If the kiwi extends its uptrend, it is likely to find resistance around 0.64 against the greenback, 92.00 against the yen, 1.74 against the euro and 1.06 against the aussie.

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EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: EUROZONE INFLATION DATA DUE



Flash inflation from the euro area and unemployment from Germany are the top economic news due on Thursday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's retail sales data for October. Sales are forecast to fall 1.9 percent annually after easing 4.3 percent a month ago.

At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office INSEE publishes flash consumer prices, GDP, household consumption and producer prices. The statistical office is expected to confirm 0.1 percent sequential growth for the third quarter. Harmonized inflation is seen at 4.1 percent in November compared to 4.5 percent in October.

At 3.00 am ET, Switzerland's KOF leading index is due. Economists forecast the leading index to rise to 96.6 in November from 95.8 in October.

At 3.55 am ET, Germany's Federal Labour Agency is scheduled to release unemployment data for November. The number of unemployed is forecast to increase 22,000 after rising 30,000 in October.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's ISTAT publishes unemployment data for October. The jobless rate is seen at 7.5 percent compared to 7.4 percent in September.

In the meantime, consumer prices and revised GDP figures are due from Poland.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is set to issue euro area flash inflation and unemployment data. Inflation is expected to ease to 2.7 percent in November from 2.9 percent in October. The euro area jobless rate is seen unchanged at 6.5 percent in October.

Also, preliminary inflation figures are due from Italy.

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PHILIPPINES MANUFACTURING SECTOR ACCELERATES IN NOVEMBER - S&P GLOBAL



The manufacturing sector in the Philippines continued to expand in November, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from S&P Global revealed on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 52.7.

That's up from 52.4 in October and it moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The uptick in the headline figure reflected gains across the top two PMI components: new orders and output. Indeed, November saw rates of growth quicken to eight- and ten month highs, respectively.

Firms noted that strong demand conditions both in domestic and foreign markets, new client wins and increased contract work boosted overall sales and in turn spurred greater production.

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