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Japan Has Y61.4 Billion Current Account In January



Japan had a current account surplus of 61.4 billion yen in January, the Ministry of Finance said on Monday. That missed forecasts for a surplus of 270.4 billion yen following the 187.2 billion yen surplus in December. The trade balance showed a deficit of 864.2 billion yen - which beat expectations for a shortfall of 936.0 billion yen following the 395.6 billion yen deficit in the previous month. Exports climbed 15.3 percent on year to 6.332 trillion yen, the data showed, while imports shed 8.9 percent to 7.196 trillion yen. The adjusted current account surplus was 1,058.1 billion yen - below expectations for 1,179.6 billion yen following the 852.8 billion yen surplus a month earlier.

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Japan Core Machine Orders Dip 1.7% In January

Core machine orders in Japan contracted 1.7 percent on month in January, the Cabinet Office said on Wednesday - worth 838.9 billion yen. The headline figure beat expectations for a decline of 4.0 percent following the 8.3 percent surge in December. On a yearly basis, core machine orders added 1.9 percent - also topping forecasts for a decline of 1.0 percent following the 11.4 percent spike in the previous month. The total number of machinery orders, including those volatile ones for ships and from electric power companies, gained 14.2 percent on month and 8.2 percent on year. Manufacturing orders shed 11.3 percent on month but gained 7.3 percent on year to 351.8 billion yen in January, while non-manufacturing orders added 3.7 percent on month but lost 1.9 percent on year to 494.5 billion yen. Government orders gained 25.8 percent on month and 37.4 percent on year to 346.7 billion yen. Orders from overseas climbed 24.2 percent on month and 8.2 percent on year to 990.6 billion yen. Orders from agencies tumbled 13.9 percent on month and 6.3 percent on year to 99.3 billion yen. For the first quarter of 2015, core machine orders are forecast to have risen 1.5 percent on quarter but lost 0.9 percent on year to 2,455.2 billion yen. Also on Thursday, the Bank of Japan said that its index measuring producer prices was unchanged on month in February, the Bank of Japan said, standing at 103.3. That was in line with expectations following the 1.3 percent contraction in January. On a yearly basis, prices added 0.5 percent - beating forecasts for a gain of 0.4 percent following the 0.3 percent increase in the previous month. Export prices lost 0.8 percent on month and 5.2 percent on year, the data showed, while import prices tumbled 4.9 percent on month and 17.9 percent on year.

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Usd/jpy Bounce Back After Spike down to 120.65 After US Retail Sales Miss



USD/JPY spikes down to 120.65 after large US retail sales miss Pair bounce back to 121.42 in New York, range again in Asia

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Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales Rise 2.9% In February



The total number of new motor vehicle sales in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 2.9 percent on month in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, standing at 95,737. That follows the downwardly revised 1.9 percent decline in January (originally -1.5 percent). On a yearly basis, new motor vehicle sales advanced 4.1 percent - accelerating from 0.2 percent in the previous month. By category, sales of passenger vehicles dipped 0.9 percent on month, while other vehicles eased 0.3 percent and sport utility vehicles surged 10.5 percent. By region, the Northern Territory saw the largest percentage increase (22.4 percent) followed by South Australia (8.8 percent) and the Australian Capital Territory (5.9 percent).

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Aud/usd Move Lower from 0.7638 to 0.7611 on Dovish Rba Minutes



RBA considered rate cut at March meet but decided to pause for more data AUD/USD back to 0.7626 last and down 0.15% on the day

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Fed Likely to Remove ‘patient’ Guidance



Markets eagerly await Wednesday's FOMC decision (post-meeting statement and updated projections: 14:00 ET, Chair Yellen's press conference: 14:30 ET). Standard Chartered research notes: We think the Fed will remove the "patient" guidance from the statement as it seeks to move towards a more flexible, data-dependent framework. We do not think the softer recent data (e.g., housing, manufacturing production, Michigan consumer survey) changes this picture as the Fed is likely to blame recent weaker data on the harsh weather and emphasize strong payroll growth data. Payroll additions have averaged a solid 293,000/month in the past six months. We do not think the removal of 'patient' automatically means a June rate hike, which Chair Yellen is likely to underscore in her press conference. We think the Fed is likely to wait until September, after core PCE inflation troughs and with more signs that wage growth is on a sustainable uptrend. The Fed may also see more evidence of improving growth in Q2 to support its view that soft Q1 data was weather-related. The shape of the tightening cycle will be an important topic: we expect Yellen to say it is likely to be very gradual, and remain data-dependent. We do not think Yellen will 'talk down' the US dollar's recent strength as, although a headwind, she may emphasise it may be offset by the boost to consumption from lower oil prices and the ongoing underlying improvement in domestic demand.

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New Zealand Consumer Confidence Index Ticks Higher In March - ANZ



Consumer confidence in New Zealand inched slightly higher in March, the latest survey from ANZ Bank showed on Friday - gaining 0.5 percent on month to a score of 124.6. That follows the 3.8 percent tumble in February to a reading of 120.0. "(The result is) a positive sign for a sustainable trend in retail spending," ANZ said in a statement accompanying the data. "The underlying message remains one of optimism."

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Crude Oil Ends Sharply Higher As Dollar Weakens; Gains 4% For Week



U.S. crude oil ended sharply higher on Friday, as the dollar tumbled against a basket of major currencies, under pressure from the Fed's statement regarding rate hikes. Investors largely ignored the supply glut situation, despite indications that global stockpiles will continue to rise. Oil futures recorded a weekly gain of about 4 percent, for the first time in five weeks. With the Federal Reserve providing a somewhat muddled outlook on interest rate hikes two days ago, most commodities and currencies took off on a roller-coaster ride. The Fed withdrew its promise to be patient on interest rate hikes, but then downgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy and signaled tightening would not occur until the second half of the year. Fed Chief Janet Yellen took a dovish stand with some lower outlook for inflation and GDP growth, signaling that interest rate is likely to rise at a slower pace than expected earlier. Crude oil initially rallied on the Fed's statement indicating rate hikes will be pushed out until at least July, but prices then moved back toward recent 6-year lows. However, traders continued to take stock of rising global inventories and the reluctance of OPEC and non-OPEC nations alike to cut supplies. Light Sweet Crude Oil futures for April delivery surged $1.76 or 4 percent to settle at $45.72 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday. Crude prices for April delivery scaled a high of $46.53 a barrel intraday and a low of $43.31. Light Sweet Crude Oil futures for May delivery, the most actively traded contract, jumped $1.04 or 2.3 percent to settle at $46.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday. Crude prices for May delivery scaled a high of $47.43 a barrel intraday and a low of $44.82. On Thursday, U.S. crude futures for April delivery surged $1.20 or 2.8 percent to settle at $44.66 a barrel, as the dollar strengthened even as the post-Federal Reserve rally quickly ran out of steam amid concerns of a supply glut. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against six major currencies, traded at 97.86 on Friday, down from its previous close of 99.07 on Thursday in late North American trade. The dollar scaled a high of 99.12 intraday and a low of 97.45. The euro trended higher against the dollar at $1.0826 on Friday, as compared to its previous close of $1.0661 in North American trade late Thursday. The euro scaled a high of $1.0882 intraday and a low of $1.0650. In economic news, eurozone current account surplus in January grew from a year ago, as trade surplus and primary income rose sharply, figures from the European Central Bank revealed Friday. The current account surplus rose to EUR 29.4 billion from EUR 18.1 billion a year ago. In December, the surplus was EUR 22.5 billion. A measure of turning points in the German economy in coming months grew at a slower rate in January, data from the Conference Board showed Friday. The leading economic index for Germany rose 0.4 percent monthly after a 0.8 percent climb in the previous month. In the six months to January, the index added 0.3 points, moving back into positive territory for the first time since June 2014. Germany's producer prices dropped more-than-expected in February, figures from Destatis showed Friday. The producer price index fell 2.1 percent year-over-year in February, exceeding economists' expectations for a 2.0 percent drop. The U.K. budget deficit showed its smallest budget deficit for February since 2008 on robust income tax receipts suggesting that the government is on the course to achieve its budget targets. Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks declined by GBP 3.5 billion to GBP 6.9 billion in February, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. It was forecast to fall to GBP 8.4 billion. The majority of the households in the UK perceived that the value of their houses increased in March, after moderating in the previous month, results of a survey conducted by Knight Frank and Markit Economics showed Friday. The house price sentiment index, or HPSI, rose to 57.5 in March from 56.5 in February. This marked the twenty-fourth consecutive month of the index remaining above 50.

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Usd pressured by Commodities Gains, Lower Yields



Gold soars Friday, other commodities up. US yields also steady at lower levels seen post-Fed, US Tsy 10s at 1.931%.


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Australian Dollar Falls After China Manufacturing PMI

The Australian dollar weakened against the other major currencies in the Asian session on Tuesday, after data showed that the manufacturing sector in China dipped into contraction territory in March. Data from HSBC Bank showed that the manufacturing sector in China dipped into contraction territory in March, with a PMI score of 49.2. That was well shy of forecasts for 50.5, and it was down sharply from 50.7 in February. Now at an 11-month low, the index also dipped below the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. The Australian dollar fell to 93.83 against the yen, 1.3930 against the euro and 1.0260 against the NZ dollar, from yesterday's closing quotes of 94.32, 1.3889 and 1.0293, respectively. Against the Canada and U.S. dollars, the aussie dropped to 0.9814 and 0.7836 from an early near 2-month high of 0.9880 and nearly a 4-week high of 0.7901, respectively. At yesterday's close, the aussie was trading at 0.9863 against the loonie and 0.7878 against the greenback. If the aussie extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 91.50 against the yen, 1.36 against the euro, 1.01 against the kiwi, 0.96 against the loonie and 0.75 against the greenback.

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