Thread: Liteforex - take your first step to financial freedom

The dollar managed to become stronger during the yesterday's trades in spite of the fact that the markets yet cannot come to a common opinion concerning the destiny of the currency. Undoubtedly, officials (on Monday - Bernanke, yesterday - Trishe) tried to carry out “verbal intervention” to the market stating, how the strong dollar is necessary for all of us, however at the same time economic indicators show the stabilisation of the American economy have slowed down, and it means that the Fed will not rush up to a “toughening mode”.
According to current data, PPI has grown only by 0,3% against 0,6% in September. Without products and fuel, the so-called net prices have dramatically fallen by 0,6%, having constrained five-years minimum gain. Thus, we can see that inflation is not the prime problem of the Fed. Another survey has shown that foreign investors have purchased American long-term securities for the total amount of $40.7 billion. In September external demand for US long-term financial assets has grown thanks to Japan, Great Britain and China. It means that all the fuss about diversification of currency reserves remain “fuss”. And, at last, the report on manufacturing sector has reflected weaker growth of volumes, than it was expected against business activity falling in auto******, demand for the business equipment has decreased.
Today all attention will be paid to consumer prices index. The indicator nowadays though has no such a great influence as it used to, still however experts take it into account. If CPI will exceed forecasts, it can skyrocket dollar in terms of interest rates. Price pressure can force the Fed switch to monetary toughening. Certainly, in order markets do really believe in high chances of increase of the index, it is vital the indicator performs sharp increase. Moreover, it is necessary to pay attention to real estate: the number of new buildings and building licences will reflect recent trends in the sphere. Analysts are sure that real estate market will soon much influence the stabilization of the economy.

Whether there will be a transition in your company transition to new trading platform МТ5 same unexpected how it was with a trading office?

In the first case we trued to notify company's clients befo*****d, however mass delivery unfortunately was a failure. When we switch to MT 5 all the traders will be advised of that in advance

And again we can see investors running from risky assets which has contributed much to dollar strengthening. Most likely, such dynamics is connected not with the American data, though with new rumors coming from China that the country may again face some problems, with danger coming out from real estate market.
Economic reports from the USA have brought some positive into markets. The quantity of cut-off seems to have reduced during the past month.
The index of economic activity estimated by Fed of Philadelphia, has grown in November and amounted at 16.7 against 11.5 in October. Growth of industrial activity has helped the USA to overcome the 1930-s recession and, most likely, will result in economic growth in the near future.
Today might be very boring: the only report on number of planned cut-offs will be published at 6 p.m. It can hardly cause any trouble in markets. Most likely, in the end of working week traders will be engaged in fixation of profit and preparation for week-ends. Dynamics of currency exchange rates will probably be quite predictable.
After weak attempt to break through euro started falling; the trend was continuous for all trading day. There is hardly anything surprising - the economic data has been poor enough, and those only published reports have not much affected markets. Some say that ECB will keep interest rate at the level of 1% up till the end of the year. However, such claims of European Central Bank’s representatives do not sound convincing.
The publications of the Italian outlook planned for today on industrial sector, most likely will enjoy no attention. However pay attention to Trishe’s announcement – though he is unlikely to say something new, still it can change moods for euro at the end of the working week.

I is such a picture on the hourly chart. I think that with a rising bottom line breakdown support and consolidate the lower direction of the course will be down. But also a chance to rebound from this line and the direction of the course up to the descending resistance line.

Last week was the second week when dollar ended up between 1.4965 and 1.4860. The US currency wasn’t able to make further upturn as last week economic data on US economy made investors avoid risks. This week is going to be another mystery: this Tuesday the US government is going to release new updated GPD data. According to some forecasts, these figures will be lowered by 0.4% and will make up to 3.1% against former 3.5%. If these forecasts turn out to be truth, we would be able to see some changes on Forex.

In this case one might wonder if it’s good or bad for dollar. Here the point is as follows: the former data released turned out to be higher than it had been expected at first (3%). On the verge of this encouraging piece of news stock market made up for past failures which in its turn did not do much good for dollar (that happened due to encouraging economic data, ‘cause investors thought they are safe from new wave of crisis and switched their attention to more risky assets). In this case GDP review will be lower than 3.5%, stock market on the other hand will face some downturn and the US currency will strengthen. Though the question here is about the level.

Last week’s Forex trading process shown some strengthening of the American dollar against the basic currencies. The main reason for dollar to start strengthening was the Fed’s policy concerning low interest rates. The Committee repeatedly declared that yet it does not consider any interest rate increase, and analysts expect growth of rates only in second half of 2010 after the same decision is made by European Central Bank. By the way, ECB already takes first steps towards toughening its policy. So, according to the Head of ECB Jean Claude Trishe, it will gradually call back measures aimed at stimulating business activity in the zone.
This week seems to be quite resilient. On Tuesday, November 24th, the USA is expected to release data concerning dynamics of gross national product for the 3 quarter 2009. Germany is also going to present GDP figures. Besides, this evening the USA is going to publish interesting enough statistics on an index of trust of consumers and a price index on real estate market.
At the same time ECB warns about dangerous dependence on cheap credits, pointing out that the first step towards liquidity reduction may soon be taken. Unlike the European colleagues, representatives of the Fed say that they would prefer to keep programs for asset buying stimulating. These differences in strategies does not seem to make much good for the USA.

The beginning of a new trading week shown volatility of major currencies though without special breaks in spite of the fact that the economic data from the USA was not that encouraging (reviewed GDP made up for 2.8% instead of forecasted 3.5%). According to the data released by National association of realtors (NAR), in October the indicator of sales on the secondary market exceeded forecasts and has flied up to the maximum value since February 2007 (6.10 million against 5.54 million). However, in many respects this growth has been forced by tax benefits given by the government, which have involved the raised number of buyers ******d to buy houses before the expiration date (the end of November). As the Congress has terms of granting tax benefits till April, it is reasonable to expect further growth of housing indicators in next months. This week housing sector will see some new valuable data – pay attention. If indicators show positive trends, it can encourage the market and convince investors that economy stabilisation has indeed begun.

What are your plans for today? What do you think, Michael, the level of 1.51 today, get it?