Thread: Daily News

Nikkei 225 has sharply dropped after the hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve. The central bank claimed it might raise interest rates in 2023 (or even in late 2022) and also started a discussion on cutting bond buys. Well, that decision pushed the USD dollar up and pressed some stocks down. Which ones? Stocks that were favored in reflation trade or, in other words, those that benefited from higher inflation: value and cyclical stocks. The worst performers of the last week were banks and cyclical-heavy Japanese stocks.
The Japanese stock index Nikkei dropped by 4% – the most since April! It has a huge proportion of economically sensitive stocks, that’s why the hit was so hard. Uniqlo (Fast Retailing Co.), the clothing retailer, and the chip-equipment producer Tokyo Electron Ltd. dropped the most on the index. Besides, the slow vaccination pace in Japan and the dark outlook for the Tokyo Olympics pressed the stock index down as well. Still, the JP 225 is at the all-time highs. This drop may be just a healthy correction ahead of the further rally up.
The JP 225 INDEX is moving inside the descending channel. The long lower shadow of the last candle gives a bullish signal. The sentiment has started changing, and the stock index may rise to the 50-day moving average of 28,900. The breakout above this level will drive the pair to the last week’s high of 29,400. This resistance level won’t be broken on the first try as the stock index has failed to do that a few times. On the flip side, the move below the 200-day moving average of 27,500 will push JP 225 to the next round number of 27,000.



Reference: FBS (21.06.2021) Greatest sale of Japanese stocks

These days, investors’ attention is on Microsoft ahead of the company’s Windows 11 event on June 24. MSFT will uncover the “next generation of Windows”, that’s why the stock price has surged: the tech giant reached the all-time high of $263.50. It is still unclear what the company will release during the event, but investors tend to follow the rule “buy the rumor, sell the fact”.
Forecasts

According to TipRanks, Microsoft currently holds a “Strong Buy” recommendation. According to JPMorgan, the stock price will hit $270 – the lowest price target among other banks. Goldman Sachs set a price target at $340, which is 30% higher than the current levels.
Cloud acquisition

Just to remind you, Microsoft is not only Office 365, it’s a lot more! Think of Xbox and Teams. The company's cloud offerings are Azure infrastructure services, Office 365 productivity software, and Dynamics enterprise software. Besides, Microsoft owns LinkedIn, Skype, OneDrive, and GitHub.
Microsoft takes one of the leading positions in cloud computing among Google and Amazon. After the coronavirus outbreak, cloud services become essential for most companies. In 2020, the company introduced Microsoft Cloud for Healthcare. In April 2021, it bought Nuance, a leading provider of artificial intelligence services for healthcare. You can hardly find any more important industries amid the Covid-19 pandemic than cloud computing, AI, and healthcare. It seems that Microsoft is engaged in almost all high-potential industries!
Technical outlook

Microsoft is moving inside the ascending channel. Now, it’s getting closer to the psychological mark of $270.00. It’s unlikely to break it on the first try as the RSI indicator is approaching the 30.0 level, which signals the stock will be soon overbought. However, if Microsoft surprises investors on June 24, it may skyrocket! Keep updated! Support levels are at the low of June 16 at $255.00 and the 100-day moving average of $245.00.

Reference: FBS (22.06.2021) Microsoft hit record high

First Friday of July is here! This means we'll be seeing a new NFP broadcast at 15:30 MT (GMT + 3)! Why is everyone so excited about this data? The reason why it's cool and easy - it makes the US dollar so uncertain! What is the NFP? Non-farm payrolls (NFP) shows how many people worked the previous month, excluding those who worked in the agriculture industry. It emerges with two important hints: unemployment rate and average income every hour. Combination, they represent strong fuel for American currency. Last month, NFP's actual figure came out at + 559 K (under estimated + 645 K). It disappoints traders and weakens the US dollar over any other currency. This time, as analysts expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 700 thousand, we might see a completely different picture! Remember:

If real data is better than predictions, USD will increase!

Alternative scenario will lower the US dollar down.
We recommend you consider EUR / USD, USD / JPY, and GBP / USD to trade in this event! How about you? Do you already have a strategy to trade the NFP?

Gold managed to regain above its key support area mentioned in our previous reports at 1769 USD/Oz, which represents its 61.8% Fibonacci of the recent rally (April – June). On Friday, Gold advanced further nearing 1790 USD/Oz, while the technical indicators has turned slightly higher. This confirms our bullish outlook in the short and medium terms. In the meantime, we prefer to long gold between 1780 and 1770 USD/Oz with a stop at last week’s lows, as revisiting that low would change the major outlook once again. On the upside view, Gold needs to break above 1800 USD/Oz in the coming days, which would be another positive factor in both short and medium terms.



Reference: FBS (05.07.2021) New Gold Signal. FBS analytic articles.

GBP/USD has managed to rise for the third trading day in a row including today’s Asian session, while the daily technical indicators are moving higher gradually. This supports the idea of a short-term retracement to the upside before the downtrend resumes later. In the meantime, GBP/USD is nearing a new selling zone which stands at 1.3950 and represents its 100-day MA followed by the psychological resistance at 1.40. This is the area where we will be interested in shorting GBP/USD not only on the short-term but on the medium-term as well, despite the fact that GBP/USD managed to hold above its uptrend line on the daily chart. We believe that this is a short-term play before the downside pressure resumes especially with the continuous estimates of a sooner tapering by the Federal Reserve.



Reference: FBS (06.07.2021) GPD/USD Near supply Zone. Fbs Articles.

What happened?

China’s tech companies have lost $823 billion in total since their February highs. The losses are huge! What’s the reason? Beijing expands its crackdown on the technology sector and this fact worries investors as the selloff may be far from over.
China’s authorities tighten the rules for the country’s largest companies, especially for those who are listed overseas or looking for selling their stocks abroad. It happened after Didi, China’s Uber, went public in the US. That triggered the sell-off of other China’s tech giants such as Tencent, Alibaba, JD.Com Inc., Baidu, and Meituan.
“The selling will continue in the third quarter. The measures from authorities will keep coming,” said Pegasus Fund Managers.
Most investors are going to take a “sell first, talk later” approach to reduce risks in their portfolio, claimed United First Partners.
“In case the market sentiment goes into extreme pessimism and we see the Hang Seng Tech Index down 20% from here, it could be a rare opportunity to buy some fast-growing Chinese internet companies at extremely attractive prices,” GAM’s Jian Shi claimed.

*We will analyze the Hang Seng Index (HK50), which is available for trading with FBS. If you notice, the quote above tells about the Hang Seng Tech Index, but both the indices are strongly correlated with each other.
Technical outlook

The HK 50 index has reversed up from the 200-day moving average of 27,600. Why? After a big drop always goes the big rise. Now the index is getting closer to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 28,335. If it crosses it, the way up to the 38.2% Fibo level of 28,900 will be clear. Support levels are the 200-day moving average of 27,600 and the psychological mark of 27,000.



Reference: FBS (07.07.2021) China's tech selloff. Time to buy the Dips? Fbs analytic news.

EUR/USD declined for the third session in a row, reaching as low as 1.1780 but managed to close yesterday’s trading above 1.18 support area, while the technical indicators are heavily oversold on most timeframes, especially on the daily chart. So far, our pending orders to short EURUSD remain unchanged, but the pair is trading far below our orders. Since the technical indicators are heavily oversold, it might be wise to risk some long positions from the current area at 1.18, with a tight stop of 1.1750, with a possibility to retest 1.19 in the coming days. This is just a short term play and won’t change our bearish outlook, especially after the pair broke its trendline on the daily chart which began back in March 2020.
Short-term trade idea for EUR/USD

BUY 1.1800; TP 1.1900; SL 1.1750



Reference: FBS (08.07.2021) Let's Risk some USD/EUR here. Fbs Analytic news.

What will happen?

The much-awaited earnings season is about to start! The first companies that will deliver their financial results for the second quarter will be Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and PepsiCo.
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are American multinational investment banks. They are going to deliver their Q2 financial results on July 13 at 14:30 and 15:30 GMT+3, respectively. The GS’s forecast is $9.96 earnings per share. The JPM’s forecast is $3.16 earnings per share. Last time, the banks beat the estimates due to the rise in wealth and consumer banking revenues after the Covid-19 crisis. However, this time, the result may be weaker than expected as Wall Street analysts have predicted trading revenue at top US banks slumped by 28%.
If Goldman Sachs reveals better-than-expected EPS, it may break above the psychological mark of $380.00, which will open the doors towards the high of June 4 at $390.00. Support levels are the low of June 8 at $360.00 and the 100-day moving average of $350.00.
JPMorgan is getting closer to the key resistance level at the 50-day moving average of $158.00. If the Q2 earnings are strong, it may jump above $158.00, clearing the way up to the all-time high of $167.00. On the flip side, the drop below the low of July 8 at $150.00 will push the stock down to the next support at $147.00.
PepsiCo, the giant beverage company, will reveal its Q2 earnings on July 13 at 13.00 GMT+3. The market expects the company to deliver earnings of $1.53 per share. Most analysts are optimistic about Pepsi’s earnings. Indeed, the coronavirus-related costs should be reduced due to a successful vaccine rollout in the US, which accounts for roughly 2/3 of total Pepsi’s profits.
If PepsiCo reveals strong financial data, its stock price may jump above the $150.00 psychological mark, which will open the doors to the next round number of $155.00. Support levels are the 50-day moving average of $147.00 and the low of June 24 at $146.00.



Reference: FBS (12.07.2021) Earnings season starts! FBS analytic news

USDCAD began the week slightly higher reaching as high as 1.2510 but failed to sustain these gains and dropped back by the end of the US session and closed the day at 1.2440 forming a bearish shooting star on the daily chart. On the other hand, the RSI indictors has broken its up-trend line which confirms the downside retracement move. With that being said, we would like to short USDCAD for a short term play at the current area around 1.2455 with a stop at yesterday’s high at 1.2510 only, with an initial target at 1.24 followed by 1.2360 which could be see in the coming days, especially if the Bank of Canada decided to taper again this week.



Reference: FBS (13.07.2021) USD/CAD short trade. FBS analytuc news.

What will happen?

International Business Machines, a huge IT company, which provides integrated solutions and services worldwide, will announce its earnings results for the first quarter on July 20 at 00.00 MT. Let’s get ready!
How to trade on earnings?

It’s really easy! Just compare the forecasted earnings with the actual and follow the rule below.

• If the results are better than expected, IBM will increase its value.
• Otherwise, if earnings are worse than the forecasts, IBM will fall.

The good news for FBS traders is that they can make both buy and sell trades while trading stocks –the rules are almost the same as for the currency pairs. So, you don’t need to already have an asset to sell it.
What are fundamental factors?

Not great, but with good potential! IBM has issues with its financial position as short-term assets cover neither short-term nor long-term liabilities. Also, IBM’s debt to equity ratio (260,7%) is considered high. Nevertheless, IBM is undervalued based on the cash flows the company is expected to generate in the future.
How has IBM been doing?

It was doing good! Global digitalization is increasing a positive trend for IBM’s earnings. This trend is expected to continue. The company primarily generates revenues from Cloud & Cognitive Software Segment. During the 2nd quarter of 2021 IBM has signed contracts with Verizon offering their Cloud services to run its 5G networks. Also, the company entered 30 new partnerships in the edge computing market segment, such as Intel, Lumen Technologies, NetApp, etc. These facts indicate a possible increase in IBM's financial performance during the 2nd quarter of 2021.
Let’s look at the chart!

On the 4-hour chart, IBM located between 145$ and 137$ lines. 145$ trend line, also, is an interception point of 50 and 100-period moving averages, so it seems to be a very strong resistance level. If IBM would break this resistance the goal would be 152$.
On the other hand, the move down to the 200-period and breaking through it could send IBM price down to 137$ and 132$ support lines.



Reference: FBS (14.07.2021) IBM earning report July 20