Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. (before Jan.20,2007)

Members of the Iraqi cabinet

New Iraqi oil law sets rules for boosting investment and output
Reuters



Baghdad: Iraq's oil committee has agreed on the a final draft of an Oil Law that sets rules for sharing revenues and boosting output and aims to bring in billions of dollars of foreign investment, an Oil Ministry spokesman said on Wednesday.

The draft, drawn up by senior national and regional leaders, calls for a federal committee headed by the prime minister to oversee all future contracts. It will have the power to review existing deals signed under Saddam Hussein or by the Kurdish regional government, spokesman Asim Jihad said.

"The committee has fin-alised the draft of the law last night which has been approved unanimously by all the members of the committee and it will be before the cabinet early next week," Jihad said.

Passing an oil law to help settle potentially explosive disputes among Iraq's ethnic and sectarian communities over the division of the world's third-biggest known crude oil reserves has been a key demand of the United States in providing further military support to the national unity government.

Achievement

"Everybody sees this law as a big achievement and as a national project. There are no differences on the law," Jihad said.

The oil committee, headed by Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih, will send the draft to cabinet next week for full approval. After that it will go to parliament. Officials hope that the broad base of the negotiating team means it will pass easily.

The final draft was in line with earlier versions described last month after a previous round of talks. A national oil company would be set up to develop production and exports and the law is intended to ensure balanced development of the oil industry across Iraq's regions, Jihad said. It establishes a mechanism for centralising oil revenues and distributing them to the regions.

Jihad refused to say who will negotiate with the international firms but said that a federal council will have the final word on approving the contracts.

The division of oil is a key factor in communal tensions in Iraq. The southern oil fields around Basra lie in territory controlled by competing factions of the Shi'ite forces, some of whom are close to Iran.

The northern fields lie on the edge of Iraqi Kurdistan around the city of Kirkuk. Kurds want to annexe the city as their regional capital and ethnic Arabs and Turkmen accuse the Kurdish militants of ethnic cleansing before a referendum on the city's future, which is due this year.Gulfnews: New Iraqi oil law sets rules for boosting investment and output

Iraqi MP Iyad Jamal Al-Din: Democracy in the Middle East Can Only Be Established by Force

The following are excerpts from an interview with Iraqi MP Iyad Jamal Al-Din, which aired on Al-Jazeera TV on December 28, 2006.

TO VIEW THIS CLIP: MEMRI TV


Interviewer: "How can the Iraqi public, which is anti-American, and which believes the U.S. is the Great Satan, support people who talk the way you do?"

Iyad Jamal Al-Din: "Whoever believes America is the Great Satan should not shake its hand. I do not consider the U.S. to be the Great Satan. I view it as the sponsor and founder of the project of democracy, and the defender of democracy in Iraq. You can be sure that if America were to withdraw today, there would be Shiite massacres of Shiites, Sunni massacres of Sunnis, and Kurdish massacres of Kurds. The strong would again devour the weak, until somebody would be back the next day - there's no doubt about it. We are still far from democracy."

Interviewer: "On what do you base your trust of the U.S. and its plans for the region?"

Iyad Jamal Al-Din: "Democracy is the religion of the dollar and serves its global interests. This dollar has a spirited life - it is dear, honorable, and loveable. It gets vexed real quickly, get it? Dollar has a religion. The religion of the dollar is democracy. This applies to the entire world, because the dollar cannot thrive in dictatorial countries, but only in democracies. For the sake of their global economy, [the Americans] establish democracy.

"We, the oppressed and slaughtered peoples, have seen nothing but stupid dictators or wise dictators. It's one of the two. Wise dictators pave roads and build houses, but they are still dictators. On the other hand, there are stupid dictators, like our friend who has gone. We are very far from democracy. It is inconceivable that we endured this humiliation and tyranny for 1,400 years, yet we are unable to create a democracy. Even after 1,400 years, our culture is still..."

Interviewer: "Democracy has resulted in what is now happening in Iraq."

Iyad Jamal Al-Din: "The result of democracy... We don't know... We are very far from liberty. Do we even know what to do with the values of liberty? The moment Saddam's club was lifted from over our heads, each and every one of us wanted to assume Saddam's personality. We had one Saddam, and now we have six, seven, 10, or 15 Saddams. We now have local mini-Saddams. I said this before the war. I said that America would do us a favor by ridding us of Saddam the dictator, but that this favor would be incomplete unless it rids us of the opposition parties. But this did not happen during the war. These people are photocopies of Saddam. Saddam was in power for 35 years, and so was the leader of this or that opposition party - not only in Iraq, but in all Arab and Islamic countries.

"The opposition is the mirror image of the regime. If we want to simplify matters, how come Hosni Mubarak has ruled for 23 years? I want to rule in his place, not because I want to change the nature of the regime, to make it a democracy, which respects human beings and private property... We are still far from all this. Therefore, in my opinion, democracy can be established in our region only through force. Democracy must be established by force, and only America can do it."

Special Dispatch Series - No. 1422

Maybe this explains the delays

Iraqi Reformist on Arab Society and Social Schizophrenia

In an article titled "Arab Society and Schizophrenia," Iraqi reformist Dr. Abd Al-Khaleq Hussein, who writes on several reformist websites, argues that Arab society suffers from "social schizophrenia," - the symptoms of which are similar to those of individuals suffering from actual schizophrenia. He further argues that the Arab governments must immediately launch social and political reforms which will gradually lead to democracy in the Arab world. If significant reforms are not carried out, he says, disasters will continue to strike the Arab word, and democracy will ultimately be imposed upon it through violent upheavals, as occurred in Iraq. In the article, he also called upon the Arabs to accept the help offered to them by the West - and especially by the U. S. - with the aim of facilitating positive change that will permit them to integrate into the international community.

The following are excerpts from the article: [1]




"This Split Personality Disorder Characterizes Not Only Specific Sectors of Arab Society, But [Also] the Governments, the Institutions of Civil Society, and the [Political] Parties"

"'Schizophrenia' is a word in ancient Greek that means 'split personality'... but it is also used in the social sciences to describe societies afflicted by severe duality in their behavior and their [moral] standards. In fact, if we carefully compare the medical and social forms of this disorder, we will find that the symptoms are very similar...

"Iraqi social scientist Ali Al-Wardi was the first to characterize the Iraqi people as suffering from this severe social illness, which he labeled 'split personality.' According to his theory, Iraqis suffer... from a conflict between the Bedouin values that have been passed down through the generations and the cultural values that the Iraqi society has acquired...

"As an illustration, he presents the example of a young Iraqi who wishes to choose his own wife, just like an enlightened Western man, and to exchange love letters with her,... but when he hears that some other man has similar relations with his sister or cousin, he immediately turns into a 'Bedouin' and murders his beloved sister and her lover...

"This split personality disorder characterizes not only specific sectors of Arab society, but [also] the governments, the institutions of civil society, and the [political] parties, especially the Islamic ones...

"The social and medical forms of this disorder have similar symptoms. The most important of these is delusions from which the patient suffers... For example:"


"Delusions of Grandeur"

"A [schizophrenia] patient believes that he is exceptional and that others should treat him as though he is an important person. The Arabs also believe that they are more important than others in every respect. They [believe that they] are the best among nations..., and regard other nations with contempt. They acknowledge no religion [but their own] and are unwilling to coexist peacefully with other religions. [They believe] that their faith is the only faith that mankind should embrace, and that whoever fails to embrace it is an infidel.

"In other words, all other religions are heathen, heretical and fabricated, and their followers should abandon them and embrace the Arabs' religion - Islam. If they fail to embrace Islam, the Muslims are entitled to wage war upon them, to kill their men or convert them by force, to take their women hostage, to sell their children in the slave market and to plunder their property...

"This disparaging view applies not only to non-Muslims, but also to other schools of thought within Islam. Each Islamic school of thought is full of contempt and hostility towards the others. The Salafis and Wahhabis, for example, are convinced that the Shiites must be killed, and that whoever kills them will be rewarded in the world to come..."


"Paranoia"

"A schizophrenia patient believes that others are plotting against him with the aim of harming and killing him, even though he hasn't a shred of evidence to prove this. This is exactly what happens with the Arabs, who are addicted to conspiracy theories. Whenever a disaster befalls them, they claim that it was brought about by a 'hostile Western Crusader-Zionist' conspiracy. They [say this] without bothering to think rationally and determine the true causes for their defeat...

"A schizophrenic imagines that people have nothing better to do than to talk about him, gossip about him, and plot against him. Consequently, he lives in a constant state of intense doubt and suspicion towards others, including the people closest to him, such as his wife, whom he suspects of cheating on him... The patient believes that even broadcasts on TV or on the other media are directed personally at him.

"This is exactly what happens in the Arab society with respect to foreign ideas and books. No society places books and ideas under siege the way Arab society does. Arab airports and sea ports are known for seizing books from the passengers. The Arabs are famous for translating the fewest books and for showing the greatest hostility towards the foreign sciences, to which they refer contemptuously... as 'imported ideas.' In addition, no people burn books and persecute intellectuals with more gusto than the Arabs."


"Somatic Delusions"

"The patient imagines strange and illogical things, for instance that foreign bodies are moving inside him, even though there is no evidence to suggest this. Similarly, Arab societies and governments suffer from the illness of [constantly suspecting] espionage by foreign agents. This is why the Arab jails are full of political prisoners and oppositionists accused of spying for other [countries]. In the eyes of the Arab governments and societies, the political opposition and the liberal intellectuals are traitors and agents of foreign intelligence [apparatuses]..."


"Disorganized Speech"

"A [schizophrenic] patient's speech makes no sense. There is no connection between the sentences, and the hearer or reader cannot understand what [the patient] means to say. The Arab societies display the same symptom - [it is] even [displayed by] people who present themselves as intellectuals and writers. We read them with the hope of understanding what they mean to say, but to no avail... And when you dispute [their claims], they say that the problem lies not with the writer but with the reader, since he is shallow and insufficiently educated, and that is why he fails to understand the ideas of the important writers and intellectuals..."


"Loss of Human Feeling"

"This is another phenomenon spreading through the Arab societies. Unrestrained terrorism and cold-blooded butchering of innocent people in front of the TV cameras provide [further] indisputable proof that Arab society is afflicted with this dangerous disease. It should be noted that the famous religious scholar Sheikh Yousef Al-Qaradhawi advised to refrain from showing the killings on TV. This means that he supports these acts, but advises not showing them in this manner, since they give Islam and the Muslims a bad reputation. In the eyes of some, this makes Al-Qaradhawi a moderate cleric."


"The Patient Loses the Ability to Enjoy Activities He Enjoyed in the Past"

"This is also true of the Arab society today. During the course of their history, the Arabs used their powers of reasoning and exercised independent judgment in religious ruling [ijtihad]... in order to find rational solutions for existing problems. But a few hundred years ago... the gates of ijtihad were shut, the mind was shut down, and [clerics] began to rely exclusively on what was said by the founding fathers [of Islam] over 1,400 years ago, even if their solutions were inapplicable to contemporary problems..."


"Inactivity and Lethargy"

"Schizophrenia patients spend most of their time in idleness or slumber. Laziness,... sleepiness, fatalism and lack of productivity are also widespread in the Arab countries. A study published a number of years ago found that a Western worker is five times more productive than an Arab worker..."


"Loss of Zest for Life"

"This is a well-known tendency in Arab society. As bin Laden said in his address to the West, 'you love life, while we thirst for death.' This is an integral part of Arab heritage... This is why preachers in the mosques glorify death [in their sermons] to young people, [teach] them to hate life, and encourage them to carry out jihad terrorist operations..."


"Isolation From the World"

"Schizophrenia patients prefer to live in isolation from the rest of the world, and spend most of their time alone, detached from other people. They are uninterested in the company of friends and relatives, are unable to form friendships with other people or to maintain previous friendships, and do not care that they have no friends.

"All these symptoms are also prevalent in the Arab society, and are due to faulty education from an early age. Most textbooks for children and youth teach hatred towards others, and [encourage the reader] to avoid the company of non-Muslims. More than that, [they instruct the reader] to avoid greeting a non-Muslim, and, if greeted by a non-Muslim, to reply in an aloof and contemptuous manner. [They also teach that] if you shake hands with a non-Muslim, you must afterwards wash your hands. Directives of this sort are published by all religious schools - even by moderate clerics, and certainly by extremist ones.

"Arab culture also encourages isolation from the world. The world is divided into two camps: 'believers' and 'infidels'... Sheikh Al-Islam ibn Taymiyya encouraged [the Muslims] to hate the unbelievers, saying: 'When you spend time in the camp of the unbelievers - for purposes of medical [treatment], study or trade - harbor hostility towards them in your heart.'..."


"Denial of the Disease"

"Schizophrenia patients deny that they are ill, and believe that they are completely well. They are hostile towards anyone who tries to treat them or wishes to help them. Similarly, the Arabs are unaware of the duality in their behavior and standards, and do not realize that they are backward and require immediate treatment in order to overcome their backwardness and [to avoid] the disasters that befall them. Anyone who tries to draw their attention to their own backwardness... is accused of treason and of being a foreign agent, usually [an agent of] the 'imperialists,' 'Crusaders.' or 'Zionists.' Consequently, intellectuals have been persecuted in Arab countries throughout the ages..."


"Mental Paralysis"

"A [schizophrenia] patient is utterly convinced that his notions are correct, to the point of [mental] paralysis... The same [phenomenon] is also widespread in the Arab society, which believes that only its own culture and notions - which have been handed down from generation to generation - are valid, and tries to eliminate those who think differently... [Schizophrenia] patients are unable to understand abstract ideas according to their context, and take everything literally....

"A similar situation exists in Arab society, which cannot differentiate among various situations. Occupation of one country by another is a vile thing, but there are exceptional cases in which the occupation is necessary since it is for the good of the occupied country. This is true for Iraq, and for Europe during the Second World War. But Arab society regards the liberation of Iraq from an extremely vile, fascistic regime as an [act of] colonialism aimed at plundering [Iraq's] treasures and killing its people…"


Al-Zarqawi, bin Laden, and Al-Zawahiri Could Not Have Perpetrated Their Atrocities Without Extensive Popular Support

"Some may object [to my arguments], asking why I take the behavior of a single individual, a handful of people, or a group, [and present it] as the behavior of entire nations. Why do I ascribe the behavior of Al-Zarqawi, bin Laden or Al-Zawahiri to all Arabs? Why do I present the sin of one cleric as the sin of all clerics?

"[But] the truth is that what happened in Algeria and what is currently happening in Iraq and in other parts of the Arab world does not result from the deviant behavior of individuals, but from general behavior that is inevitably caused by [our] culture.

"Barbaric acts of mass murder were rampant in Algeria, with the number of victims reaching a quarter of a million. School girls were murdered for not wearing the veil. The murders carried out by 'jihad fighters' in Iraq have come to symbolize [the general situation there], which is condoned by Arab societies.

"Needless to say, Al-Zarqawi, bin Laden and Al-Zawahiri could not have perpetrated all these atrocities without extensive popular support, without constant recruitment [of new jihad fighters], and without the cultural and ideological support that is [ingrained] in the [Arab] heritage and education. Surveys conducted in a number of Arab countries showed that the majority supports the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization, and that bin Laden himself enjoys great popularity, especially in the Gulf countries…"


If Arab Governments Do Not Begin to Lead Their Peoples Towards Democracy, History Will Force It on Them

"Based on the above, I believe that Arab societies… suffer from duality in their standards, their views, and their behavior, and require immediate treatment if they want to heal, to overcome their backwardness, and to live in peace with the international community…

"Obviously, it is difficult to change the people's entire outlook overnight, especially when the governments constitute an obstacle to reform. The process is difficult and will take a long time, but there is nothing to prevent it from starting today… The ball is in the court of the Arab governments, who must understand the reasons for their backwardness and the backwardness of their people.

"The problem with these governments is that they have always objected, and still object, to gradual and peaceful development… [which occurs naturally] in the course of history. Democracy is the order of the day, and if the Arab governments do not begin to gradually lead their peoples towards democracy, history will force it on them through violent [upheavals], as occurred in Iraq...

"It should be noted that over 200 years ago, the Western peoples went through what the Arab peoples are experiencing now. They managed to resolve their problems, to build an advanced civilization, and to make economic, social, scientific and technological progress - but [this happened] only after reason was liberated from [the shackles of] fairytales and lies, [and after they] separated religion and state, established regimes that were secular, liberal and democratic, and gave freedom of speech and thought to [their] intellectuals."

Special Dispatch Series - No. 1190

Bush is winning in Iraq


I know I have sworn off political commentary for the duration, but after having watched a more than healthy amount of mainstream media for the past week, I am fairly ready to burst. I think I really know how the one-eyed king felt in the kingdom of the blind. Unless some two eyed person out there would like to point out my myopia, I would like to make some assertions that I feel are so obvious, I cannot understand why pundits are not shouting them from the rooftops.

I thought we were supposed to have worked so hard and elected a Democratic Congress in order to get some traction on ending the war in Iraq. It was pretty much understood by pollsters and pundits alike that John Q. Public had had enough of this fiasco and for better or worse wanted US out – yesterday – just like nearly all Iraqis. Now the Dems are hemming and hawing even on cutting off money for a war escalation (pardon me, augmentation) – never mind cutting off funds for the war itself. It makes me wonder what Democratic Party I was working for prior to November.

It somehow makes me think that the whole country is ignoring the three-hundred-pound turd in the punchbowl.

First of all we are not losing in Iraq – NOT losing. As far as I can tell, everything is going according to the Neocon plan over there. What is the plan and why is it no one is even discussing what it is? I am talking here about the plan for the oil (remember the sea of oil Iraq is supposedly floating on?) and also the strategic bases being built (and the mega embassy).

Some months ago, one of our loyal opposition (I think it was Kerry) timidly mentioned something about wanting to remove the permanent bases being built in Iraq. Well that was the last I heard of such a proposal even being considered. If anyone has an update on any plans to either abandon or turn over our 12 known Crusader castles to the Iraqis, I would certainly appreciate the update.

So here is why I think, contrary to the administration propaganda and the conventional wisdom, Bush is winning and will continue to win in Iraq. The “Civil War” is a cruel ruse. The only civil war in Iraq is the one we probably fomented and continue to fuel. A full tilt civil war in Iraq can only serve our interests. Most Iraqis believe that we are behind the incitements to sectarian violence, including the biggie – the bombing of the Golden Mosque. Whether it is true or not, most Iraqis believe this is so - and in the final analysis, that is what counts. Chicago’s old Mayor Daley, who always had an uncanny ability to malaprop his way to the truth, had an expression that is a fitting description of this strategy: “The policeman isn’t there to create disorder; the policeman is there to preserve disorder.”

That is one of our principle goals in Iraq – to keep the Iraqis divided and unable to create any stable society. The inverse of our adage, so often bipartisanly repeated, is actually the closest thing to our actual policy: the more incapable the Iraqis are to stand up the less likely we are to stand down. We have never intended a “stand down,” do not and never will.

Our unstated policy in Iraq is to guarantee our control of the oil, and keep a strategic military presence at this location within which we can threaten the other key players in the area. All this rhetoric on both sides of the isle is just that – hot air used to generate a distraction from this central objective. Bush and the Democrats don’t really care how many die on either side of the conflict as long as the bases get built and supplied. They don’t give a hoot about the “will of the people” as expressed in the latest Congressional election. Neither do they care ultimately whether a puppet or a Shiite rules Iraq, or whether the whole country goes to hell in a hand basket - as long we keep those bases, strong, ready and inviolate.

I lump the Democrats in this “conspiracy” because for better or worse they tacitly refused to oppose Bush on the initial incursion in spite of their having an accurate assessment of the same ambivalent intelligence that Bush had. I used to think of them as merely gutless. Now I feel they were complicit. If I hear one more “progressive” Democrat tell the Iraqis that they have to step up to the plate and somehow redeem themselves because we are tired of supporting their sorry asses, I think I will seriously consider taking an AK47 to both chambers. I believe that in the case of the rape of Iraq not unlike the rape of an unfortunate human victim, makes as much sense to tell her that she needs to “pull herself together” and like Iraq she needs not petition for justice, reparation or punishment of the violator. She needs to be responsible for her own recovery in spite of the vindication and the celebration of the deed of the perpetrator and the promise of future anticipated violations.

I believe our Iraqi policy was, is and will be irresolutely bipartisan. The Democrats in spite of all their posturing about cutting off of funds for the military and the tough questions to try to embarrass the black queen Condi, they will go along because they are secretly behind the Neocon agenda all the way. This vision will prevail in spite of the will of the Iraqis, the will of the American public and whether or not Bush is turned out of office in disgrace. After all his only real crime was to make the crime too obvious, too ham-handed. When Hillary assumes office in January, 2009, the war will still be as strong as it is today. Nothing will change – really.

I would love to be proven wrong on this and I invite refutation. As I said, I do feel like a one eyed man. Perhaps someone with binocular vision can straighten me out. I am so weary of being right all the time.
MWC News - A Site Without Borders - - Bush is winning in Iraq

Take legal actions against the participants of so-called “Kirkuk 2007” conference

Wednesday, January 17, 2007
KurdishMedia.com - By Pir Aso Yarsani
Turkey’s various hostile interventions in the Iraqi government, in general, and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) affairs, in particular, must be immediately stopped and condemned in a joint announcement by both KRG and the Iraqi government; otherwise Turkey will continue to make fun of itself by insulting and humiliating these legal bodies more and more.

If Turkey is not stopped now, its illegal actions will inevitably lead to another bloody regional armed conflict. A conflict which I guess before everything else will shrink Turkey to become as big as Kosovo. That should indeed matter all Turkish fascists, I don’t mind personally.

A Turkey once upon a time described by European scholars as ‘a mad man of Europe’, has now become the mad cow of the Middle East which must be either cured or isolated from the rest of the healthy world. A country which historically was given chance after chance to become a good example of diversity and coexistence of many distinctive folk groups (that are mainly Kurds, Armenians and Turks) but chose to commit two genocides; the first one caused 1.5 millions Armenians death, and the second one thousands of thousands Kurdish death, burned villages, displacement of ca a half million Kurds and currently a well-designed psychological war aimed to target all Kurds wherever they are now. However, Turks should now know better that Kurds is an immortal nation and despite many hardships they are determined to continue their struggles for a better world.

A world in which a Turk and a Kurd is treated equally, not like today’s Turkey where Kurds are deprived from their entire cultural and political human rights and unfortunately viewed as enemies. It is evident that the Turkish politicians have miscalculated both regional and international real political arenas. This notion of illogical thinking should be Turkey’s first priority and not hosting “Kirkuk 2007” which is undoubtedly an Iraqi affair not Turkish.

Concerning the so-called “Turkmen National Front” which initially was set up by the Turkish intelligent organization (MIT) to function as a Turkish proxy inside the Southern Kurdistan, all Iraqi patriots should be united to confront this mercenary group. The Iraqi people have all national and international rights to conduct a set of effective measurements to tackle this issue. What Iraqis can do are:

1) Bringing this issue to UN
2) Closing the Turkmen national front offices and prohibiting them to contact Turkey
3) All Kurds inside and outside Kirkuk should personally boycott any cultural and financial affairs with those Turkmen who are worshiping Ataturk or Turkey Finally, European Union along with all Turkish democratic forces, if there is any at all, should immediately break their deadly silence and demand from Turkey to behave like civilized countries and democracies.

Take legal actions against the participants of so-called “Kirkuk 2007” conference

This article is about a year old but may provide some insight

The Difficulties of Forming the New Government in Iraq

Introduction

In the second parliamentary elections in Iraq, conducted on December 15 of last year, four political groups emerged with an overwhelming control of the seats in parliament. These groups, together controlling 252 of the total 275 seats, are the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) associated with Shi'ite political parties (130 seats) [1] ; the Kurdish Alliance (53 seats); the Iraqi Accord Front representing the Sunnis (44 seats); and the Iraqi National List of former prime minister Ayad Allawi primarily comprising secular candidates (25 seats). The remaining 23 seats are divided among various parties and individuals, the most significant being the Iraqi Front for National Dialogue, another Sunni party, whose 11 seats complement the 44 seats of the Iraqi Accord Front.

The results of the elections were contested on grounds of fraud and irregularities, which delayed the final allocation of seats by almost two months. The investigation by a team of U.N. and Arab League experts found few irregularities: The ultimate results announced by the Independent Electoral Committee on February 10, 2006 were nearly identical to the preliminary results. The international team also identified "the pressing need at this juncture of Iraq's history for a veritable national unity representing all the segments of the Iraqi people." [2]


The Leading Political Figures

The four leading winning groups in the elections are made up of various components which, in a crunch, may follow their own religious, sectarian, tribal, regional, or even personal interests. Indeed, the tensions and disagreements within and among them could undermine the prospects of forming a stable and effectively operating government in the next four years.

The UIA itself is a confederation of four political parties and independent candidates - the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) under Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim; al-Da'wa Party, under the current Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Ja'fari; the Fadhila Party [Virtue Party] under Dr. Nadeem al-Jabiri; and the Sadrists, the supporters of the young Islamic radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The Kurdish Alliance is made up of the two leading Kurdish parties - the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) under Jalal Talabani, the current president of Iraq, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party under Mas'oud Barzani, the President of Kurdistan.

There are four leading figures and groupings in the Sunni parties. The Iraqi Accord Front, including the Conference of the People of Iraq, under 'Adnan al-Duleimi; the Islamic Party, under Tariq al-Hashemi; the National Dialogue Front, under Sheikh Khalaf al-'Alyan; and the Council for National Dialogue, under Saleh al-Mutlak.





The Selection of a Prime Minister

Under the Iraqi constitution, the party with the largest number of seats designates the prime minister, although it is the President's Council (the President of the Republic and his two Vice Presidents) which asks a member of parliament to form a new government.

While the election results were being contested, the UIA, the group with the largest number of parliamentary seats, was engaged in an intense internal contest for the selection of its candidate for the post of prime minister. Initially, four candidates competed, but eventually the real competition was reduced to that between the current Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Ja'fari from al-Da'wa Party and 'Adil Abd Al-Mahdi, the vice president from SCIRI. The new prime minister will serve for four years under the constitution approved in a referendum in October 2005.


The Method for Selecting the Prime Minister

The two key candidates and their supporters advocated two opposing methods of selection: Abd al-Mahdi supporters favored selection based on consensus; al-Ja'fari supporters favored selection by a vote among the 130 UIA members of parliament. The second method emerged with the upper hand, thanks greatly to the weight of the 30 Sadrists who all voted for al-Ja'fari. The London daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat has reported that, on the eve of the voting, Muqtada al-Sadr called some of the Shi'ite leaders and threatened a civil war if al-Ja'fari was not selected. [3] Given al-Sadr's record of erratic behavior, the story cannot be readily discounted. It was also suggested that as a quid pro quo for the Sadrists' votes for him, al-Ja'fari will drop all legal cases against them, most of them arising from the rebellion in Najaf and Karbala in 2004 and, more significantly, the arrest warrant pending against al-Sadr for the murder of a major Shi'ite figure, Abd al-Majid al-Khoei, shortly after the occupation of Iraq. [4]

When the votes were counted, al-Ja'fari received 65 votes and Abd Al-Mahdi, 64. Al-Ja'fari was declared the winner, but his margin of victory represented neither a great vote of confidence for someone who had already been serving as a prime minister for almost a year, nor a propitious start for the challenges ahead.

Al-Sadr emerged from this exercise as a person with political clout, which he quickly used in a series of well-publicized visits to neighboring countries where he was treated as a significant political figure. In the course of less than four weeks, he was received by the heads of state of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Jordan. One way or another, al-Sadr has become part of the Iraqi political landscape - a force to be reckoned with. Al-Sadr has two potent opponents - the Kurds and Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of SCIRI. If these two political groups should join forces with Allawi and the Sunnis, an entirely new political situation could emerge.


Foreseen Delays in Forming a Government

The formation of the first Iraqi government following the elections of January 30, 2005 took approximately four months. At that time, there were only two major groups negotiating a deal, and one of the two, the UIA, had an absolute, though not a two-thirds, majority in the National Assembly. This time, there are four major groups in the newly-elected parliament, and none with an absolute majority. To form a new government, and with it the right to govern, a candidate needs the support of all of the UIA and at least one more group from among the four. Given that al-Ja'fari is not popular outside his own Da'wa party and the Sadrists, who jointly control fewer than half of UIA's 130 seats, it is hardly surprising that various groups are already maneuvering to identify alternative candidates.

The process of forming a coalition is likely to be neither easy nor quick. Already many of the potential partners have declared their conditions, or red lines - a euphemism for a veto - about potential candidates and about critical issues. Notwithstanding his admonition that whoever draws these lines "will find himself [entangled] inside them," [5] Talabani reminded the UIA that nomination does not necessarily mean appointment, and that while al-Ja'fari can be approved in parliament by a simple majority of 138 members, he would in fact need 184 votes, or two-thirds of the members of parliament, to be able to govern effectively, and to effect certain changes that would require two-thirds of the votes in parliament. [6] The Kurds have their own conditions about the federalism of Kurdistan and about the future of Kirkuk, as will be explained below.


Contentions About Political Figures

The political figure who raises the highest level of contention is al-Ja'fari himself. He has been criticized for performing poorly as prime minister. The country remains in a severe state of turmoil and is subject to daily terrorist attacks. Frightened by random violence, many Iraqis rarely venture out of their homes. The supply of electricity and gasoline remains irregular, and the high rate of unemployment shows no sign of abating. Above all, al-Ja'fari is now seen as beholden to the erratic Islamist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose supporters' votes were crucial to putting al-Ja'fari ahead of his closest competitor. There is a genuine concern that al-Ja'fari's government might, under pressure from al-Sadr, pull Iraq further into an Iranian-style theocracy.

The other political figure who raises a great deal of contention is Ayad Allawi, the former prime minister, who is a secular Shi'ite. Al-Ja'fari, and, even more, the Sadrists who supported him, have declared their opposition to Allawi's joining the new government. Al-Ja'fari's objection may have to do with Allawi's past Ba'thist association, and the Sadrists cannot forgive him for crushing, with considerable force, their rebellion against the Shi'ite marja'iyah in Najaf and Karbala and against the multinational forces in 2004. Moreover, Allawi's secularism is anathema to a group which firmly believes that the only good government is a government based on shari'a (Islamic law). [7]


Political Maneuvering

There is a broad consensus among the various political groupings, including elements of the UIA, that the new government should be a government of "national salvation," that brings under its umbrella all the political forces in Iraq. The United States stands firmly behind this proposition, for it is indeed unlikely that the Sunni-guided insurgency can be brought under control unless the Sunni representatives in Parliament are fully represented in the new government.

The two Sunni groups in Parliament, which together control 55 seats, have entered into a broader coalition with Allawi's National List, thereby creating the second largest faction in Parliament with 80 seats. The new group is called the Council for National Action (majlis al-'amal al-watani), which will act as an integrated parliamentary faction in negotiations with the designated prime minister on the formation of a new government. They expect to increase their number to 88 by attracting individuals or representatives from small groups. In the words of one of its members - Izzat al-Shahbandar - all the faction's components are nationalist groups which reject ethnic politics. Its mission "is national unity, without which Iraq will descend into the abyss." [8]

Another problem for al-Ja'fari is posed by the head of the UIA, Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, who heads SCIRI and who believes that the post of prime minister belongs to his party because it has a much larger political base than al-Ja'fari's Da'wa Party, and is negotiating with prospective coalition partners behind al-Ja'fari's back. While he is on record in support of the democratic choice of al-Ja'fari, his actions are not consistent with his words. He is known to have been holding talks, jointly with Adil Abd Al-Mahdi who was defeated by al-Ja'fari by one vote, with the Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani and with the Sunni leader 'Adnan al-Duleimi. Al-Hakim has also met separately with the other Kurdish leader Mas'oud Barzani, the president of Kurdistan. [9] Given Al-Hakim's disappointment at the selection of al-Ja'fari over SCIRI's candidate Abd al-Mahdi, it is a safe assumption that he is not exactly conducting meetings to mobilize support for the candidacy of al-Ja'fari.

While SCIRI and its leader al-Hakim have maintained a strategic alliance with the Kurds, al-Ja'fari, as prime minister, has had less than warm relations with Jalal Talabani, the president of Iraq. Their conflicts and disagreements made front page news for a long time in the free Iraqi press. The Kurds have been particularly disappointed with al-Ja'fari's refusal to place the Kirkuk issue on the agenda. Talabani and al-Ja'fari have even feuded over one of Saddam's palaces, an issue finally resolved with the help of the Kurdish militia, the Peshmerga.

Al-Ja'fari must also not ignore the fourth component of the UIA, the Fadhila Party [the Virtue Party] which has its own agenda and its own demands which, if not satisfied, might cause it to bolt into the arms of a different political configuration. The Al-Fadhila party seems not to have taken part in the negotiations for the next government.

Another criticism of al-Ja'fari, voiced by the Najaf News Network, is that by insisting on his reelection, Al-Ja'fari has galvanized all the forces, national and international, that are opposed to the Shi'a rise to power in Iraq, thus forcing him to make concessions to the detriment of the Shi'a and to their fundamental interests. [10]


Critical Issues Facing the Formation of Government

When the maneuvering subsides, and the actual bargaining goes into high gear, there will be a number of issues, some extremely thorny, placed on the negotiating table. Among them are the following:


The Coalition Government

Since no political party commands an absolute majority in the new parliament, a coalition government is inevitable. The questions are what kind of coalition will be formed, who will be in it and at what a price.

The starting issue is whether the new government will be another coalition between the Shi'a and the Kurds, or a national unity government that will include, in addition to these two groups, the Sunnis and the secular members of Allawi's party. Hamid Majid Mousa, the Secretary General of the Communist Party and a member of Allawi's group, has asserted that the attempts to keep Allawi out have foiled attempts to form a new government. [11]

In the aftermath of the terrorist attack on the Shi'a shrines on February 23, the likelihood of a national government has increased. There is, however, a growing assumption that the heads of most of the political parties, with the open support of the U.S. Ambassador in Iraq, will demand that the UIA come up with a candidate other than al-Ja'fari. In this context, the convening of the parliament, required by the constitution to take place on February 25, was postponed for two weeks in order to give the various factions more time to negotiate. [12]


The Issue of Federalism

There is a broad consensus in Iraq that the Kurdish region should remain federated - in other words, autonomous - under a unified Iraq. Al-Hakim, the head of SCIRI, has repeatedly announced his intention to create a similar federated region in southern Iraq. The Sunnis, supported by the Sadrists, strongly oppose this idea because it will deny the Sunnis the benefits of oil revenues, as these revenues will accrue solely to the Kurds and the Shi'a. The opponents of federalism demand a constitutional revision that would render such a federal structure unconstitutional. The UIA is opposed to major revisions in the constitution which would deny them the option of federating the southern governorates on the pattern of the Kurdish north.


The Issue of Kirkuk

The Kurds argue that al-Ja'fari has reneged on a commitment that the government would discuss the issue of Kirkuk's future - an issue that they rank second in importance only to federation of the three autonomous Kurdish provinces. They want the issue resolved through a referendum which they believe they have the votes to win. The Kurds are unlikely to support any prime minister who does not offer to deal with this issue in a manner favorable to their aspirations.

As a condition of supporting al-Ja'fari, the Kurds demand a commitment by the prospective prime minister to conduct a census of Kirkuk, to be followed by a plebiscite that would determine whether the city will be incorporated into Kurdistan. They also demand a major role for the Kurdish ministers in the new government. [13]

The Kurds realize, as they have said through one of their negotiators Fuad Ma'ssoum, that they can tip the scales between the UIA's candidate and the newly established Allawi-Sunni Coalition's candidate. [14] In practice, the Kurds would prefer a UIA candidate, provided that candidate is not al-Ja'fari.




The Issue of Deba'thification

There are two extremes on this issue. On one side are the Sadrists, who demand that the deba'thification of Iraq must go ahead at full speed with the summary execution of Saddam Hussein; on the other side are the Sunnis, who feel that they have been sufficiently victimized by the policy of deba'thification, and that it is time to move on and unify the country. Holding a middle ground is the Allawi group, which has taken a pragmatic view about deba'thification, namely that the policy should be applied only to the most senior elements of the former ruling Ba'th Party. This view is also shared by the Kurds, whose leader, Talabani, has vowed that, as president, he will never sign execution orders for Saddam Hussein.


The Issue of a Timetable for Withdrawal

The Sunnis and the Sadrists find themselves in agreement regarding the demand to set a timetable for the withdrawal of multinational forces from Iraq. They share the view that insurgency, terrorism and economic dislocation are caused by the occupation forces, and that the sooner they leave, the better Iraq is likely to be. For them, setting a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign forces is second only to preventing the federalization of Iraq. The Kurds want the multinational forces to stay until the resistance has been brought under control and the Shi'a, with the blessings of their spiritual leader Ayatollah al-Sistani, have taken a pragmatic view.


The Issue of the Militias

There are three significant militias - the Kurdish Peshmerga, SCIRI's Iran-supported Badr Brigade, and al-Sadr's Jeish al-Mahdi, which may also be getting support from Iran.

In rather blunt language, the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, said the United States will not agree to the existence of militias connected with sectarian elements in the new government. He said the American taxpayers wish to see their tax money spent properly and they do not wish to see it spent on [military] forces run by sectarian ministers. [15] The ambassador's admonition may have been directed primarily at the Badr Brigade, which is suspected of committing murders and acts of terrorism against the Sunnis. (See next paragraph.)


Key Security Ministries

There are four key security posts - the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of the Interior, the National Security Adviser, and the head of the intelligence service. The U.S. Ambassador, who is directly involved in many of the negotiations between party leaders about the formation of the new government, has expressed the view that all the four positions should be held by individuals not connected with sectarian parties. [16] The most controversial figure is the Minister of Interior, Banyan Jabber Solagh, whose ministry was found to be running illegal prisons and torture chambers, most of whose victims are Sunnis. The Sunnis also claim that the police and security forces under the Ministry of the Interior are responsible for the assassination of numerous Sunni clerics, and they want Solagh out. However, he is a member of SCIRI, which is supported by the Badr Militia. Should al-Ja'fari succeed in forming a government, it will be difficult for him to replace Solagh, as doing so would offend the other branch of the UIA, whose support for al-Ja'fari is far from solid. [17]

Al-Ja'fari was equally blunt, characterizing the statement by the U.S. Ambassador as "his government's point of view." He asserted that Iraq "makes its own decisions, by Iraqi methods and through Iraqi vision, without the intervention of any [other] country." [18]

When agreement is reached on the issues indicated above - and some will no doubt be swept under the carpet for consideration at a later date - a new round of negotiations will start concerning the allocation of the so-called 16 sovereign posts: the president, the prime minister, and the speaker of the parliament - each with two deputies; the ministers of foreign affairs, finance, interior, defense, and petroleum; the national security adviser; and the chief of intelligence. And, finally, the parties will have to agree on the size of the cabinet and how the posts will be distributed among competing demands and party interests.




Criticism of the U.S. Ambassador

The U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad has maintained a high profile in the various meetings regarding the formation of a new government. He also been seen sharing the podium in news conferences involving senior Iraqi leaders, including the president.

It is not surprising that the ambassador is not well-liked by most of the Shi'a, who refer to him as "Ambassador of the Sunnis" and as "Abu Omar" or "Mullah Khlil," after Mullah Omar of the Taliban. [19] Even the daily al-Sabah, a semi-official newspaper, published an article bearing the headline "The American Ambassador carries out the responsibility of the high commissioner." In the opening sentence, the daily said, "The difference between the function of an ambassador and that of a high commissioner designated by his country to govern an occupied land has disappeared." [20]


Conclusion

This paper has sought to highlight some of the complexities and issues involved in the formation of a new Iraq government that is supposed to govern a country in deep crisis for the next four years.

The chances of concluding the arduous process of forming a coalition may have been enhanced by the recent terrorist attack on major Shi'ite shrines in Samaraa, and the subsequent retaliation against Sunni mosques in many parts of Iraq. The danger of a civil war resulting from violence against the holy places of both communities could spur action to reach a compromise faster than would otherwise have been possible. But even a faster process may be slower than what Iraq needs in terms of a strong and stable government that is capable of addressing the burning national issues of security and economic reconstruction. The decision on who will be Iraq's next prime minister will be of decisive import for the question of how the country might be successfully navigated through turbulent waters.


* Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli is Senior Analyst of MEMRI's Middle East Economic Studies Program.

Inquiry and Analysis Series - No. 269

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

WASHINGTON — Americans and Iraqis, working together to try to make Baghdad a livable city under gunfire, have made some headway in building sewer systems and schools. But the American heads of the 80-person provisional reconstruction team that provides advice acknowledged Wednesday that "it will take a very long time" to get the job done.

There are Baghdad neighborhoods, Sadr City for instance, that are simply too risky to enter, although local leaders will meet with the team outside its confines, and Iraqis generally are just beginning to get the hang of putting a city together, reporters were told on a video hookup from Baghdad.

On the other hand, Joseph P. Gregoire, the team leader, said, "We have met with large numbers of people with good will who are trying to meet the needs of the Iraqi people."

Also, Gregoire said on a positive note, projects tend to overcome sectarian differences. A sewer system built in a Shiite neighborhood that corrects backup problems where Sunnis live, for instance, is welcomed by both communities, he said.

The team was set up last March with a $100 million budget, of which $60 million has been spent to make arrangements for sewer systems, schools, electricity and other civil projects.

A typical accomplishment, said Lt. Col. Robert Ruch, the deputy team leader, is that 10 schools are scheduled to be opened in the city of 6 million people next month.

"It is not only about building schools but creating jobs," he said in the video news conference.

About 80 people are on the team's roster, half of them U.S. service personnel, 15 American civilians, six or seven bilingual advisers from the United States, Britain, Canada and New Zealand and the rest are Iraqis.

Areas of concentration include helping local Iraqi officials to learn how to govern, offering advice on economic development, helping to provide services and instructing in legal proceedings.

Overall, new U.S. reconstruction aid for Iraq has dwindled in this fiscal year to $750 million. President Bush proposed a week ago adding $1.2 billion to that. Last month, the Iraq Study Group proposed boosting U.S. reconstruction assistance to $5 billion a year.

Calling the team headed by Gregoire and Ruch a reconstruction project is a misnomer, they said. They said their job is to provide advice and match up local officials with people who can do the work.

Even on their level, however, the task is daunting. "It will take a very long time to get to the point where the Iraqis will be able to meet the needs of the population independent of donor action," Gregoire said.
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FOXNews.com - Long Road Ahead to Iraq Reconstruction, Say Team Leaders - Politics | Republican Party | Democratic Party | Political Spectrum

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Armed groups blamed for loss of oil revenues

By Amar Abdullah
Azzaman, January 17, 2007
Armed groups have infiltrated the Ministry of Oil and steal hundreds of millions of dollars to finance their operations every year, a deputy prime minister said.
Burham Saleh said the rebels fighting U.S. troops and Iraqi government were stashing away $1.5 billion a year from the refineries in Baiji alone.
Baiji in northern Iraq is the site of the largest refineries in Iraq with a capacity of churning out 350,000 barrels a day.The area is one of the major anti-U.S. strongholds in the country.
Iraq has been facing severe fuel shortages since the 2003 U.S. invasion despite its massive crude oil reserves.
“Crime is behind the fuel crisis,” Saleh told the parliament as members queried him on when he thought the crisis will be over.Saleh did not spare the government from blame: “We have a regime and an administration that encourages corruption,” he said.