Evidence of improvement in Iraq.
By Bill Crawford
An important step in stemming the violence in Iraq is to find a formula to share the country’s oil revenues fairly between the three main groups: Shiite, Sunnis, and Kurds. Iraq is preparing to take a step in the right direction by providing opportunities for foreign oil firms to invest in the country, thereby increasing its output and revenues:
The production-sharing agreements (PSAs) would allow oil giants to sign 30-year contracts for extracting Iraqi oil.
Under PSAs, the state retains legal ownership of its oil but gives a share of the profits to companies that invest in infrastructure and in operating the wells, pipelines and refineries.
The newspaper [the Independent] said that under the draft law, oil companies could recoup 60 to 70 per cent of revenue until initial costs had been recovered, which compares to around 40pc usually.
Along the same lines, Lt. General Graeme Lamb, Deputy Commander of Multinational Forces-Iraq, sees 2007 as the year that Iraq moves forward, and says he sees plenty of progress to base his optimism on:
Let me give you an example. I was out at Hit the other day, Ramadi. The battalion commander out there, young battalion commander — actually, I suppose he's not that young; he just looks it — had been in Ramadi two years before, had done a full year's tour. As far as he was concerned, he always just seemed to be going backwards. When I saw him the other day, as far as he was concerned, they were making huge progress.
Ramadi. Four months ago I don't think there was any policemen in the town. Seven hundred and ninety-one now.
They were shot at from a building. Two hundred policemen drawn together surrounded the building, cleared it. Now, that's just an example of some progress.
I then look at some of the economic issues. I look at the megawatts of power that are coming on line. I see some of the reconstruction programs that are going out. Now, that gives me a degree of optimism.
I see this prime minister. I see this government. I see the challenges they face, and I'm not trying to dismiss the difficulties or trying to give you some sort of political upbeat spin. I don't do optimism. I don't do pessimism. I just do realism as I see it. And I do spend a lot of time out here. I spend a lot of time out here. I got a feel for the Arabs.
So it's just the way I see it, and it's not sort of in effect trying to — I don't know — make something out of nothing. I think the situation here — you know, as someone once said — I think it was a field marshal of ours said things are never as good or as bad as you think they are. I just see these in fact at a point in turning.
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29-01-2007, 12:49 PM #861
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The Reconstruction
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Nothing is impossible, the impossible only takes longer time!
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29-01-2007, 12:50 PM #862
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Reconstruction & Economy
If it were any other country, the reconstruction of Iraq would be a huge story.
As of December 31, 2006, there are 658 projects underway at a cost of $2.67 billion, 3,026 projects have been completed at a cost of $7.11 billion, and 94 more projects are planned.
A $43 million upgrade to the Al Basrah oil terminal is expected to be completed by April. The upgrade includes an emergency shutdown system, control valves, metering system, and fire protection. The upgraded terminal will meet all international safety and metering standards.
Twenty hospitals throughout Iraq are currently undergoing $103 million in renovations.
A small water project was completed in Dahuk Province. The new water storage tank and pipeline serves more than 1,000 residents of Dahuk.
An $8.6 million renovation to the Samawah Railroad Maintenance Center has been completed. The Samawah site is one of two railway maintenance centers in Iraq, and employs more than 250 Iraqis.
Iraq’s power grid is now being monitored by a central control system, called SCADA:
“The main function of SCADA is to create and maintain a digital connection in order to check the provinces’ power loads and control them easily by connecting them to the central power distribution points,” Perry said.
The SCADA system includes input and output signal hardware, controller networks, and communications software.
There are 47 primary health-care centers under construction in northern Iraq. The first completed center recently opened in Salah Al Den Province:
More than 112,000 people in the Salah Al Den Province are receiving healthcare from the first completed Primary Healthcare Center (PHC) in the north.
Built by local construction companies with quality assurance managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, this $3.35 million dollar facility provides routine and initial emergency care to patients including X-ray, laboratories and dentistry. Medical supplies and laboratory equipment were included in the contract to make this facility complete and operational.
On January 15, three new schools were opened in Mushahidah: an elementary school for girls, a secondary school for girls, and an elementary school for boys:
“This is a great example for the projects in this area,” said Shiek Naif Moutlak, the chief of the city council. “We thank the coalition for all they have done and hope for other projects in the area to help the people.”
The Pentagon is helping fight unemployment in Iraq by reopening factories that were once owned by Saddam Hussein:
Under a new program, the U.S. Defense Department is already helping reopen factories that were owned by Saddam Hussein's government and abandoned by occupation authorities shortly after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. The Pentagon may also start providing them with contracts to support U.S. troops.
One factory restarted operations in the past two weeks, and nine more are to open by the end of this month, adding some 11,000 Iraqis to employment rolls, a Pentagon official said Wednesday. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the information had not been released yet.
The president’s speech this week put Iran on notice that the U.S. was going to work to prevent its interference in Iraq. Iraqi forces took the first step in confronting Iran when they raided Iran’s diplomatic mission in Irbil:
Iraqi officials said today that multinational forces detained as many as six Iranians in an overnight raid on Tehran's diplomatic mission in the northern city of Irbil just hours after President Bush gave details about his new military plan for Iraq. The forces stormed the Iranian mission at about 3 a.m., detaining the five staffers and confiscating computers and documents, two senior local Kurdish officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information. Irbil is a city in the Kurdish-controlled north, 220 miles from Baghdad.
Japan is preparing to loan Iraq $3.5 billion for reconstruction. In the city of Al Qosh, Medics from the 1st Cavalry Division treated more than 80 people during a humanitarian mission to the city:
During the mission, one female physician’s assistant and one female pediatrician medically examined over 80 people; 65 percent children, and 35 percent women.
Three dozen soccer balls were distributed to the children of the town, courtesy of a donation from a radio station in the United States, as well as clothing, toys, shoes, and school supplies._________________________________________
Nothing is impossible, the impossible only takes longer time!
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29-01-2007, 01:25 PM #863
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World Economic Forum
Davos Forum holds workshop on Iraq
29 January 2007 (Al-Sabaah)
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World Economic Forum in Davos held workshop about stability in Iraq participated by Vice President A'adel Abdulmahdi. Foreign Minister Hoshiar Zeebari, MP Adnan Bachachi, Secretary General of Arabic League Amr Moosa, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zaeid besides some of politicians, media workers and businessmen.Zeebari met with Amr Moosa, Palestinian President Mahmood Abbas, Malaysian Foreign Minister Abdullah Badawi and Director of IAEA, Dr. Mohamed Barad'a
I SURE HOPE THEY AGREE THAT THE STABILITY OF THE ECONOMY IN IRAQ IS LOOKING GOOD - hint hint
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29-01-2007, 01:29 PM #864
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This is very encouraging. It sounds like Shabibi is waiting for the budget. The budget will be much easier to pass than the HCL. No rate increase for the last two auctions but a quarter of a trillion dinars pulled out seem to point to his effort to reduce inflation but it will take an RV to dramatically improve purchasing power.
I know we all know this but it's nice to see Shabibi saying it too!Please, somebody shoot the messenger!
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29-01-2007, 01:39 PM #865
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Iraqi MP says 15bn dollars unaccounted for in 2006 budget
Baghdad, 29 January 2007 (BBC Monitoring)
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A member of the Iraqi parliament said that 15bn dollars have disappeared from the Iraqi budget in 2006, and he accused senior Iraqi government officials of involvement in corruption, which he said is damaging the body of the Iraqi state.
Muhammad al-Dayni, a deputy for the National Dialogue Front, said in an exclusive statement to a Quds Press correspondent: After presenting the 2007 state budget to the Council of Representatives for approval - a budget of 41bn dollars distributed among all Iraqi ministries and departments - Finance Minister Bayan Jabr said before presenting the new budget [as published] that there was a deficit of 7.6bn dollars billion and that 2 trillion Iraqi dinars were placed at the disposal of the finance minister to transfer among ministries, which violates the law and the constitution.
Al-Dayni added: "While the finance minister was presenting the budget to the Council of Representatives, and after he mentioned the deficit, a number of deputies confronted him with statements he made earlier in which he said that there was a surplus in the 2006 budget, as not all of it was spent. He had estimated the surplus in those statements at between 14bn billion and 15bn dollars. The amount was supposed to be transferred to the 2007 budget, which the minister said had a deficit of 7bn dollars. But everyone was surprised when the minister said he did not make such statements. When a number of deputies confronted him with evidence and gave dates, and when others said they kept a recording of the interview in which he talked about a surplus in the 2006 budget, the minister admitted that he said there was a surplus, but he denied that he said the figure was 15bn dollars, saying the surplus was only 8bn dollars."
Al-Dayni said the way the 2007 state budget was discussed made many deputies suspicious. They decided to invite a minister to ask him about the annual allocations to his ministry. The Ministry of Human Rights, which is the smallest ministry in the structure of the Iraqi state, was chosen. Al-Dayni added: "Minister Wujdan Salim came to parliament. When she was asked about the number of the employees in her ministry and the financial allocations to them, the minister said that she had 350 employees. This shocked all the deputies because according to the budget that the finance minister presented, the Ministry of Human Rights had 1,223 employees. This means that 73 per cent of this ministry's budget is stolen every year. If this is the case with a small ministry like the Ministry of Human Rights, how is the situation in big ministries like the ministries of defence, interior, transport, and health, where there are about one million employees?"
Al-Dayni stressed that corruption is eroding the body of the Iraqi state. He said: "The problem is that the Council of Representatives relies in its watch of the work of ministries on watchdogs like the Financial Control Office. But we found out that these watchdogs are corrupt and run by people who are involved in major corruption cases."
Al-Dayni accused many parliament members of benefiting from the tampering with the budget. He said that despite all the reservations about the 2007 budget that the Council of Ministers presented to parliament for approval, he expects the budget to be approved because "many deputies want this budget to pass because they too are deeply involved in corruption. We, therefore, cannot count on the parliament because the majority of its members benefit from the corrupt situation Iraq is experiencing."
Al-Dayni accused the establishments of the Iraqi state, including the judiciary, of being politicized and under the influence of party and sectarian blocs. He deplored the situation of the Iraqi judiciary. He said: "Many corruption files were disclosed but, regrettably, those who stole money are now in power. The corruption files, therefore, are closed in some way or another. Indeed, some statements are made, in collusion with a number of politicized or frightened judges, to refute all evidence. The problem is that those who are following up the cases of administrative corruption in the establishments of the Iraqi state are themselves corrupt due to their party and sectarian affiliations."
Iraqi MP says 15bn dollars unaccounted for in 2006 budget | Iraq Updates
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29-01-2007, 01:42 PM #866
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Iraqis fail to reach deal on draft oil law
BAGHDAD, 29 January 2007 (Gulf Daily News)
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Iraqi officials say a hotly debated proposed oil law will not favour Americans but acknowledge that foreign companies will be allowed to take their profits out of the country - an incentive to draw foreign investment.
The Oil Ministry has been struggling for months to reach a compromise over draft legislation to govern Iraq's most important industry and pave the way for much-needed investment and know-how to revitalise the devastated infrastructure. But the measure faces strong objections by ethnic Kurds and concern about American influence in the sector.
Published reports in the Middle East said the proposal would provide for so-called product sharing agreements that would give international oil firms 70 per cent of the oil revenues to recover their initial investments and subsequently allow them 20pc of the profits without any tax or restrictions on transferring funds abroad.
"Without a decisive military victory, the US occupation of Iraq seems to be about to grab its oil prize by establishing a new sharing arrangement," the English-language Yemen Observer said yesterday, echoing a frequent criticism that the US-led invasion was aimed in part at capturing Iraq's oil.
Iraqi officials denied that the proposed law would favour Americans but stressed that it would set terms aimed at attracting international funds and know-how to an industry that faces a rampant insurgency and struggled even before the war due to sweeping UN sanctions imposed after Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.
Trade Minister Abed Falah Al Sudani said that American companies will be among those bidding for contracts under the proposed law and the Iraqis will "take the best offer ... and take into consideration the experience of the company".
He did not specify monetary terms but said "foreign companies will be able to win concessions for a long time", without elaborating.
"Iraq's economy has suffered because of the security situation and the economic laws, but we now want to implement laws that reform the country and reform the economy. These laws will increase the growth of the economy," he said.
In Washington, White House spokesman Trey Bohn said: "This development is is part of the give and take of the parliamentary process. Iraqis are taking the lead in securing their own future and it's reasonable to expect not all parties are going to agree on the best way to do that."
Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki has pressed hard for a new oil law to be passed since he came to office on May 20. And US President George W Bush stepped up the pressure on the Iraqis to pass legislation to share oil revenues among all Iraqis in announcing his new Iraq strategy.
Iraqis fail to reach deal on draft oil law | Iraq Updates
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29-01-2007, 01:43 PM #867
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Monday, January 29, 2007 1229.3 IQDLast edited by michael16; 29-01-2007 at 01:45 PM.
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29-01-2007, 01:45 PM #868
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Iraq refers Oil deals to Kurds, Angers Turkey
29 January 2007 (Zaman)
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Iraq's oil authority has referred Turkish companies' requests for renewal of their contracts for transportation of oil products to Iraq to Kurdish authorities, prompting an angry reaction from Turkey.
Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) has refused to renew the contracts of Turkish companies exporting oil products to Iraq and said in a letter to the companies that they should get in touch with authorities in northern provinces if they wanted to renew their agreements, Anatolia news agency said.
But SOMO's letter, signed by Director-General Fallah Al-Amri, drew ire in Ankara. State Minister Kürşat Tüzmen confirmed that some companies had received some "strange" letters saying that they should talk to authorities in the north, while others had been given the same instruction verbally. "SOMO's attitude is unacceptable," said Tüzmen to the Anatolia. "If someone is trying to test Turkey's patience, they will pay a heavy price for this."Turkey says Iraq's territorial integrity must be protected and denounces possible attempts by Iraqi Kurds to create an independent state in north of the country. Ankara also insists that oil and other riches of the country must be governed by Baghdad and the revenues must go to all Iraqis.
"Turkey recognizes an undivided Iraq with territorial integrity. Therefore, we talk to the central Iraqi government and SOMO on oil issues," Tüzmen said. "If some people try to impose certain things on Turkey, they will fail. Turkey never allows such a fait accompli." SOMO's oil move comes amid political tension between Turkey and Iraq over the status of the disputed city of Kirkuk. Ankara has been increasingly vocal over the past weeks in criticizing a planned referendum in 2007 on the fate of Kirkuk and demanding a postponement for the vote.
Turkish authorities say a large number of Kurds from different parts of Iraq have flocked to Kirkuk in recent years, in what they see as an effort to change the demographic composition of the city in their favor ahead of the referendum. Other residents of the city, Turkmen and Arab clans, also complain that Kurdish groups are trying to seize control of the city by sponsoring migration of Kurds.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has recently said Turkey would not allow a "fait accompli" on the fate of Kirkuk and hinted that a military option is also on the table. Kirkuk sits atop six percent of the world's known oil reserves and experts believe the city's control would bring significant leverage to Kurds in their attempts for independence. Iraqi government, in response, criticized Turkey for its interference in Iraqi affairs and said Turkish politicians were trying to stir tension in the north.
Turkey, in line with a past decree issued by the Prime Minister's office, speaks to only the Iraqi government and SOMO on issues related to export of oil production to Iraq.
Tüzmen said officials at the Undersecretariat for Foreign Trade have tried to contact SOMO to discuss the letters sent to the Turkish companies, but that there was no response from the Iraqi authorities. "SOMO officials do not answer phone calls" from the Undersecretariat for Foreign Trade, he said. Tüzmen sent a letter to Iraqi oil minister, criticizing SOMO's letter to Turkish companies and urging the Iraqi side to respect the principles previously agreed upon. "Unilateral decisions that do not respect these principles may negatively affect the ongoing trade of oil products between Turkey and Iraq," Tüzmen said in his letter.
Iraq refers Oil deals to Kurds, Angers Turkey | Iraq Updates
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29-01-2007, 01:47 PM #869
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Top Iraqi Kurdish officials reject Turkish statements on oil-rich city of Kirkuk
By KIM GAMEL
29 January 2007 (AP Worldstream)
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Top Iraqi Kurdish officials on Sunday rejected recent statements by Turkey on the fate of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, saying such interference in domestic affairs is unacceptable.
The criticism came after Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan earlier this month warned Iraqi Kurdish groups against trying to seize control of the city 290 kilometers (180 miles) north of Baghdad, saying Turkey would not stand by amid growing tensions among ethnic Turkomens, Arabs and Kurds in Iraq's oil-rich north.
Iraq's deputy prime minister, Barham Saleh, a Kurd, said he raised the issue during a meeting with the new Turkish ambassador in Baghdad on Sunday.
"We look forward to working with Turkey to develop in our bilateral ties, but that requires respecting Iraqi sovereignty. For Turkey, or for that matter any other neighbor with Iraq, interfering in domestic affairs of Iraq is utterly unacceptable," Saleh told The Associated Press in an interview.
He also said the Iraqi Cabinet had met to discuss the statements and some conferences hosted by Turkey on the issue.
"We believe these are inconsistent with the premise of good neighborly relations," he said. "The fate of Iraq will be decided by Iraqis in accordance with the constitution."
"This is fundamentally a matter for the people of Iraq, nobody else," he said. "If others give themselves the right to interfere in the domestic affairs of Iraq, they should also expect others interfering in their domestic affairs. That is not a good precedent. Let us respect each other's sovereignty."
The spat came as Turkey has expressed dissatisfaction with U.S. and Iraqi efforts to contain Turkish Kurdish guerrillas, who Ankara says have been using bases in Iraq to fight for autonomy in Turkey's southeast. Opposition parties have been trying to get the government to consider possible military action or economic embargoes to force Iraqi Kurds to cooperate with Turkey.
Another source of tension between Turkey and Iraqi Kurds is the fate of Kirkuk, which many Kurds hope to take control over and annex to their region in northern Iraq.
Iraqi Shiite-led government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh also has said the government rejected conferences that had been hosted by Turkey that were viewed as interfering in Iraq's domestic affairs.
Iraq's Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, also a Kurd, also met with Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
He "expressed Iraq's rejection to any regional interference in Iraqi affairs," according to a statement by his office.
Top Iraqi Kurdish officials reject Turkish statements on oil-rich city of Kirkuk | Iraq Updates
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29-01-2007, 01:48 PM #870
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Iraq sliding into civil war, report warns
By Guy Dinmore
Washington, 29 January 2007 (Financial Times)
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Iraq is rapidly sliding into an all-out civil war that is likely to spill over into neighbouring countries, resulting in mass deaths and refugee flows, serious disruption of Gulf oil supplies and a drastic decline in US influence in the region.
This grim forecast is set out in Things Fall Apart, a 130-page report released today by the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy, which also recommends how the US might contain the disastrous consequences of "spillover".
The Washington think-tank distils what it says are the lessons learned from other civil wars, laying out the case histories of Afghanistan, Congo, Lebanon, Somalia and Yugoslavia.
Kenneth Pollack, a former Clinton administration official and CIA analyst who co-authored the report with Daniel Byman, told the Financial Times they were looking for a "Goldilocks solution" - somewhere between "stay the course" and "getting all out".
"It was arrogance in the face of history that led us to blithely assume we could invade without preparing for an occupation, and we would do well to show greater humility when assimilating its lessons about what we fear will be the next step in Iraq's tragic history," the report says.
Brookings identifies six patterns from other civil wars that are already manifesting themselves in Iraq: large refugee flows, the breeding ground of new terrorist groups, radicalisation of neighbouring populations, the spread of secessionism, regional economic losses, and intervention by neighbours. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait and Turkey are said to be "scrambling to catch up" with rival Iran.
Among the report's recommendations are "don't try to pick winners", as proxies often fail or turn against their *******; avoid active support for partition; "don't dump the problem on the United Nations"; pull back from Iraqi population centres despite the horrific consequences; bolster regional stability by revitalising the Israeli-Palestinian peace process; set up an international contact group including Syria and Iran; and consider setting up "safe havens" for refugees along Iraq's borders.
Brookings estimates that 50,000 to 150,000 Iraqis have died already since the US invasion in 2003 and cites United Nations figures of 1m Iraqis who have subsequently fled their country.
Mr Pollack, who previously was an outspoken proponent of the invasion, says the lessons of past full-blown civil wars reveal nearly all efforts by states to minimise or contain spillover have failed.
The report will be read with deep concern by the US administration, which is projecting an increasingly discordant picture of how it evaluates Iraq, even while speaking of the serious consequences of failure. President George W. Bush calls it the "nightmare scenario".
Analysts outside Brookings say officials are working on "what next?" strategies in the event that the 21,500 troop reinforcements announced this month fail to halt the sectarian chaos.
Mr Bush has conceded that the US is not winning the war. In contrast, Dick Cheney, his vice-president, asserted last week that the US had achieved "enormous successes" in Iraq. Both reject assertions that Iraq is in a state of civil war.
Mr Cheney told Newsweek that by sending a second aircraft carrier group to the Gulf, the US demonstrated to its allies it would stay in the region and had the capabilities, working with international organisations, "to deal with the Iranian threat".
But Mr Pollack is concerned that the US is stoking a wider conflict and is "careening" into provoking a war with Iran. Even in his "best-case scenario" for Iraq, Mr Pollack fears hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Iraq sliding into civil war, report warns | Iraq Updates
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