Thread: Iraq/Dinar News to April 19, 2007 10PM CST

2007 International Monetary Fund March 2007
IMF Country Report No. 07/115
January 29, 2001 Septmber 24, 201 January 29, 2001
Iraq: Third and Fourth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Financing
Assurances Review, and Requests for Extension of the Arrangement and for Waiver of
Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion—Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Press
Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director
for Iraq
In the context of the third and fourth reviews under the Stand-By Arrangement, financing assurances
review, and requests for an extension of the arrangement and for a waiver of nonobservance of a
performance criterion, the following documents have been released and are included in this package:
• the staff report for the Third and Fourth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement,
Financing Assurances Review, and Requests for Extension of the Arrangement and for
Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, prepared by a staff team of the IMF,
following discussions that ended on February 2, 2007, with the officials of Iraq on economic
developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions,
the staff report was completed on February 23, 2007. The views expressed in the staff report
are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Board of
the IMF;
• a supplement to the staff report of March 9, 2007, updating information on recent
developments;
• a press release summarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during its
March 12, 2007 discussion of the staff report that completed the reviews and requests; and
• a statement by the Executive Director for Iraq.
The documents listed below have been or will be separately released.
Addendum to the Technical Memorandum of Understanding*
Letter of Intent sent to the IMF by the authorities of Iraq*
Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies by the
authorities of Iraq*
*Also included in Staff Report
The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents allows for the deletion of market-sensitive
information.

Sorry if this was already shared here, but I saw this on XXX and wanted to share it here, too. I thought it was interesting...Here's the link to the document and this disclaimer in blue is on the first page... wonder what they have left out??!!!

Links to other forums is a no no here.-neno

Originally Posted by One Oar

Good to see you posting D-E.

Thanks One Oar

Dinar-Excited

Iraq may hold twice as much oil
By Ed Crooks in London

Published: April 18 2007 20:24 | Last updated: April 18 2007 20:24

Iraq could hold almost twice as much oil in its reserves as had been thought, according to the most comprehensive independent study of its resources since the US-led invasion in 2003.

The potential presence of a further 100bn barrels in the western desert highlights the opportunity for Iraq to be one of the world’s biggest oil suppliers, and its attractions for international oil companies – if the conflict in the country can be resolved.

If confirmed, it would raise Iraq from the world’s third largest source of oil reserves with 116bn barrels to second place, behind Saudi Arabia and overtaking Iran.

The study from IHS, a consultancy, also estimates that Iraq’s production could be increased from its current rate of less than 2m barrels a day to 4m b/d within five years, if international investment begins to flow.

That would put Iraq in the top five oil-producing countries in the world, at current rates.

The IHS study is based on data collected in Iraq both before and after the invasion, showing the oilfields’ reserves and production history.

Its estimate is based on analysis of geological surveys.

Production costs in Iraq are low, particularly compared to the more complex offshore developments.

IHS estimates that they are less than $2 a barrel.

But the development of the industry depends on an improvement in the security environment, which remains very difficult.

At least 170 people were killed on Wednesday in five co-ordinated car bomb attacks in Shia districts of Baghdad, the deadliest attacks the city has seen since US and Iraqi forces launched a joint security crackdown in February. The attacks came hours after Nouri al-Maliki, prime minister, claimed that Iraqi forces would be in a position to take over primary responsibility for security in all of Iraq’s 18 provinces by the end of the year.

Ron Mobed of IHS said: “Obviously the security situation is very bad, but when you look at the sub-surface opportunity, there isn’t anywhere else like this. Geologically, it’s right up there, a gold star opportunity.”

Of Iraq’s 78 oilfields identified as commercial by the government, only 27 are currently producing. A further 25 are not yet developed but close to production, and 26 are not yet developed and far from production.

Iraq’s government has estimated that it would need $20bn-$25bn of investment from foreign companies to get production up to its full potential.

Production methods have advanced greatly in the past two decades, and methods such as horizontal drilling have yet to be deployed in Iraq. The introduction of modern technology by foreign companies has the potential to deliver steep increases in oil recovery.

Almost all the leading international oil companies and many smaller ones have expressed an interest in working in Iraq.

So far the only new contracts for developments by foreign companies are the five signed by the Kurdistan regional government in the relatively peaceful north of Iraq.

Iraq’s cabinet plans to present its proposed oil law to parliament next week, following a meeting Wednesday of political leaders and experts in Dubai. But many of the key details have yet to be resolved.

Oil production in parts of the western desert region that are attached to Sunni Arab-majority provinces could help resolve some of the differences between Iraq’s sectarian political blocs.

The Sunni have until now been strongly hostile to the federalism espoused by most Kurds and some Shia, arguing that it would deprive their less well-resourced heartland in the centre of the country of resources.

FT.com / In depth - Iraq may hold twice as much oil

PM Barzani extends hand of friendship to Turkey



The Globe - By Muhammed A. Salih



Barzani suggests that political solutions can be worked out.























The PM insists that Turkey will not shut down Kurdistan Region's relatively open border at Ibrahim Khalil (Khabur), a vital economic supply line to the region.



Kurdistan Region's Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani expressed his government's readiness to talk with the Turkish government in order to end months of tensions between the two sides.



"We are ready for any means of negotiation," Barzani told reporters last Saturday during a press conference in the Kurdish regional capital of Erbil. "We are prepared for dialogue with Turkey to work out a solution (other than military)."



During the press conference, intended to "send a message to Turkey," Barzani used soft language in a bid to defuse the escalating war of words between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Turkey. He said the KRG is ready to speak with Turkey with or without the assistance of Baghdad.



"Turkey is an important country for us, and we extend our hand of friendship to them and hope that they will take it," he said.



Criticizing the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Barzani said, "The PKK has made lots of problems for us in the past?But we can't solve this problem through military means." Barzani proposed that political solutions be worked out instead.



Ankara has been pressing Washington to crack down on PKK guerillas, who Turkey accuses of launching cross-border operations onto its soil from Iraq.



Barzani stressed the importance of economic ties between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan as a uniting factor that should prevent conflict.



Turkish companies have contracts worth $2 billion(USD) in Kurdistan, the largest slice of foreign investment in the region. Barzani also called on Turkish oil companies to invest in Kurdistan's emerging oil sector.



He dismissed the possibility of Turkey's shutting down the Ibrahim Khalil commercial route on the Iraqi Kurdistan border with Turkey.



"The Ibrahim Khalil crossing point is not only important for us but for Turks as well, because Turkey is a member of the World Trade Organization and cannot easily close down Ibrahim Khalil. No doubt, if they close it, it is going to affect Turkey more (than Kurdistan).



Turkey has threatened in the past to close the crossing point with the Kurdish region and instead open several other border crossings to Iraq through neighboring Syria.



Meantime, sounding disappointed at the failure of recent attempts to meet with Turkish officials, Barzani said it is Turks "who are not ready to meet us."



Senior Kurdish officials were supposed to meet Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul in Istanbul recently, but Turkey cancelled the plan, Barzani said.



The cancellation occurred after the Dubai-based pan-Arab channel al-Arabiya aired an interview with Iraqi Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani, in which he said his forces would not sit idle should Turkey invade Kurdistan Region. He added that Iraqi Kurds could incite unrest in Turkey's Kurdish-dominated southeastern region and an independent Kurdistan is a "natural and legal right of Kurds."



However, Nechirvan Barzani called for Turks to take into consideration the timing of the interview, saying it was conducted in late February but aired only recently. In February, a new round of hostile language between Iraqi Kurds and Turkey began after a top Turkish general accused the two main Iraqi Kurdish parties of being "the biggest supporters" of the PKK.



Massoud Barzani's interview sparked angry reactions in Turkey, with Turkish military Chief of Staff Gen. Yasar Buyukanit warning, "If you ask me whether a cross-border operation is needed, yes it is needed. It would be useful."



Hundreds of PKK fighters are based in the rough, mountainous areas of Qandil on the Iraq-Iran-Turkish border margin.



But the leaders of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) have repeatedly denied any backing of the PKK, saying they are willing to see a political solution to the PKK issue.



They also argue that Qandil is not controllable, and that a war of Kurds killing Kurds will never take place. The same area used to be a harbor for Iraqi Kurdish fighters during their fight against successive Iraqi governments from 1961 to 1991.



Turkey has also voiced concerns over the situation of Turkomen in the northern, oil-rich city of Kirkuk, where a considerable number of Iraq's Turkomen live.



The KRG says it is committed to implementing Article 140 of Iraq's constitution, which has set a road map to normalize the situation of the disputed city by the end of this year. Kurdish leaders have warned that if Article 140 is not implemented, then "a disaster" will happen.

PM Barzani extends hand of friendship to Turkey

Maliki position shaky
Published Date: April 19, 2007
By Anne-Beatrice Clasmann

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has his back against the wall. Last month, 15 members of the Fadhila party left the Shiite Alliance - Al-Maliki's most important power base. Later, all six ministers of the movement led by the radical cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr left the government. Now Al-Maliki has been forced to dismiss Defence Minister Abdul Kader Al-Obeidi - a Sunni. Otherwise, the Iraqi Accord Front, which with 44 seats is the strongest party in parliament, threatened to withdraw its seven ministers as well as Deputy Prime Minister Salam Al-Zubai. This would have meant the final break-up of the government. "Al-Maliki will remain in office for another few months at most," politicians were speculating at the Arab Summit in Riyadh in late March, where Iraq was represented by two Kurdish politicians - President Jalal Talabani and Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari.

In fact, the Shiite prime minister is increasingly struggling to juggle US strategy, the power interests of rival Shiite parties, the influence of Iran, the Kurdish strive for independence and the constant criticism from dissatisfied Sunnis. Officially, the Sadr movement has justified its resignation from the government with Al-Maliki's refusal to provide a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq. But there is another reason why the Sadr followers are distancing themselves from the prime minister. In February and after hesitating for a long time, Al-Maliki finally succumbed to pressure from Washington. Since then, US troops and the British military can more or less do as they wish in raids and attacks on the Sadr movement's militia.

The US and Iraqi Sunnis have accused the Mahdi Army of murdering thousands of Sunnis solely on the basis of their religious beliefs. At the same time, a new front is opening in Basra. In the southern Iraqi oil city, a serious power struggle has broken out between the various Shiite parties, in which the alliances are not entirely clear. The only thing that is certain is that the Fadhila party, which supplies the governor of the city and is steering an independent course in Baghdad as well as Basra, is coming increasingly under pressure. Al-Maliki was selected as prime minister after the parliamentary elections in December 2005 because he seemed to be a centrist.

Unlike other members of the Shiite majority, he does not have a particularly close relationship with Tehran. His Dawa party also has fewer armed men than the Sadr movement or the third largest Shiite party, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). Yet, by now hardly anyone believes that the present government will last much longer. On the one hand, because more than 500 civilians have been murdered or blown up in Baghdad over the past two months despite the new security plan. On the other hand, because the US Democrats are exerting pressure on President George W Bush over the Iraq dilemma, which might finally mean that Al-Maliki will have to leave. - dpa

Maliki position shaky » Kuwait Times Website

Gates Says Failure in Iraq Would Endanger Middle East Daniel Williams and Jonathan Ferziger
Wed Apr 18, 3:30 PM ET



April 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that failure to pacify Iraq would endanger the security and prosperity of the entire Middle East.

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Gates made the remarks in separate appearances in Israel and Egypt, both before and after car bombs in Baghdad killed at least 166 people in the worst violence there since the U.S. began a troop ``surge'' in February. The U.S. won't allow ``Iraqi insurgents or al-Qaeda terrorists'' to change its path, he said.

``I think it's important to highlight their efforts to interrupt the process of reconciliation, to try and prove the Baghdad security plan a failure, and we intend to persist to show it is not,'' Gates said during a press conference in Tel Aviv with Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz.

Gates, who visited Jordan yesterday, is on a swing through the Middle East where he is stressing the need for Iraq's neighbors to help quell sectarian violence between the country's Sunni and Shiite Muslim populations. He is scheduled to confer tomorrow with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in Jerusalem.

In Cairo, Gates held a morning meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who opposed the U.S.-led 2003 invasion of Iraq.

``Whatever disagreements we might have had over how we got to this point in Iraq, the consequences of a failed state in Iraq, of chaos there, will adversely impact the security and prosperity of every nation in the Middle East and Gulf region,'' Gates said during a luncheon speech to the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt after meeting Mubarak.

Iran Threat

In Cairo, Gates referred to Iran as ``the curse of the region.'' There should be ``no illusions'' about Iran's support for terrorist groups or its plans to develop nuclear weapons, Gates said. Egypt and the U.S. shared the goal of ``an Iran that does not dominate the region,'' he added.

Later in Tel Aviv, though, Gates sought to quell talk of taking military action against Iran, which has suggested that Israel should be eliminated. Israelis have interpreted Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's statement as signaling his intention to destroy the Jewish state with nuclear weapons.

``We agreed it was important to deal with the Iranian nuclear problem through diplomacy, which appears to be working,'' Gates said while standing beside Peretz at the Defense Ministry. ``These things don't work overnight, but it seems to me clearly the preferable course to keep our focus on the diplomatic initiatives, and particularly because of the united front of the international community at this point.''

Peretz agreed, while adding, ``It's not time yet to take other options off the table.''

Iran Role

On May 3, the U.S., Iraq and representatives of other Middle East countries as well as permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, and the European Union, will meet in Sharm el-Sheik, an Egyptian Red Sea resort. They will try to find ways to quell violence in Iraq. Iran hasn't yet accepted the invitation.

Anyone ``cheering'' for a disintegration of Iraq is ``dangerously short-sighted,'' Gates went on. ``The first and secondary effects of a collapse in Iraq -- with all of its economic, religious, security and geopolitical implications -- will be felt in capitals and communities of the Middle East well before they are felt in Washington and New York.''

How much Egypt can contribute to pacifying Iraq is a matter of debate in Egypt. Mohammed el-Sayed Said, deputy director of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said that ``Egypt can only provide rhetoric.'' Countries closer to Iraq, such as Saudi Arabia, ``have an interest in getting directly involved, but Egypt would not invest itself in a country so far away,'' Said said.

Egyptian Leadership

Gates wants to persuade Egypt to use its annual $1 billion in U.S. military aid in part to bolster its army for action against forces like al-Qaeda, the global Islamic terror network, the Associated Press reported from Jordan yesterday.

Walid Qazziha, a Middle East studies professor at the American University in Cairo, said Egypt isn't ready to reorient its defense priorities. ``From Egypt's point of view, military threats are not from terrorists within its borders but from Israel or perhaps Ethiopia, over issues of Nile River water,'' he said.

During his speech in Cairo, Gates praised Egypt's ``leadership'' role and the benefits of U.S.-Egyptian military contacts. He said the U.S. would deal with Egypt and other friends ``not as a patron, but as a partner who respects the different histories, cultures and perspectives of the people in the Middle East.'

Ayman Nour

After the speech, a member of the audience asked whether, if Egypt sent 100,000 troops to help quiet Iraq, the Bush administration would grant it a free trade agreement and ``forget about Ayman Nour.''

Nour is a lawyer jailed shortly after running for president against Mubarak in 2005 elections. Subsequently, the Bush administration, under pressure from Congress, called off a drive to forge an Egyptian-U.S. free trade agreement.

Human Rights Watch, the New York-based campaign group, said Nour's trial on fraud charges was unfair. Egyptian rights groups have repeatedly called for his release. Nour, 43, is in the second year of a five-year jail term.

Gates responded that, ``We have a practice in Washington of never answering hypothetical questions.'' The audience laughed, and the roast veal luncheon was served.

Calling for Nour's release was once a staple of U.S. public statements on Egypt. During a January 2007, visit, her most recent to Egypt, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice didn't bring it up in public. A few days later, her spokesman said she discussed the issue privately with Mubarak.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Williams in Cairo at [email protected]

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

yeah they want it done before that meeting in egypt!!!

I agree...

That's a long read "snotty"....thank you! for I find it an interesting contribution to highlight just how far we are being anywhere closer to a resolute solution... Lots of desert sand but few cents in return, is it a curse???... does it make sense with that region??


Lets go see Luxor instead in Vegas... there's plenty of cents to collect by that Strip...



YB. -

Originally Posted by Gloribee

Whoa, my friend, lets step back from the computor. This is a can of worms we dont need in the news thread. Not saying yes, not saying no. But you have read enough to know what kind of responses will come.

lets chill about this all. Yes a tragedy, but lets keep to topic at hand.

Now back to dinars.

Gloribee

thanks, and to point out that i wasnt saying virginia tech was funny at all but the article i posted was humorous at poking fun of conservative ideals. thats why i said it wouldnt be popular among most of the investors.

"there is a time and place ".--:---wait until they are buried.