Thread: Iraq/Dinar News until 5/23/07 Midnight CST

State-Run Iraqi Enterprises Offer Prospect of Stability, Growth

By Tim Kilbride
Special to American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, May 21, 2007 – Economic expansion through the revitalization of domestic industrial capacity is a major factor for stability in Iraq, a senior defense official said, May 18, during a call with “bloggers” and online journalists. Iraq’s state-run factories once served as the lynchpins of diversified regional economies, said Paul Brinkley, deputy undersecretary of defense for business transformation.

Turning those factories back on not only would provide employment and wages for hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, he said, but also would set off a ripple effect of smaller business generation throughout the areas in which factories are located.

More importantly, Brinkley added, “Economic prosperity is a counter-measure against social unrest and violence.”

Pointing to studies of the post-World War II reconstruction of Europe under the Marshall Plan, Brinkley said it was programs to return people to work and prevent economic stagnation that kept the continent from falling back into war.

While Iraq presents different circumstances, he observed, the fundamentals of the problem are the same.

“This is a human population that’s suffering economic distress,” he said. “And if you alleviate the suffering, I believe the job our forces have and the Iraqi defense forces have gets much easier.”

Religious zealots will remain a problem, but that situation is more easily controlled, Brinkley said, if the greater environment in which they operate is normalized.

“If you take away the portion that is simply frustrated and fed up after four years, and seeking any income,” he noted, “then I think the job of our forces and the ability to stabilize the country gets much, much easier.”

Iraq’s industrial legacy includes more than 200 formerly state-run factories, with a skilled work force more than 200,000 strong, Brinkley said.

Because of United Nations sanctions lasting from 1991 to 2003, Brinkley said, Iraq was forced to move beyond a dependence on oil exports and develop an industrial capacity to meet its internal needs. “This country already had a diversified economy,” he noted.

“When you look around the country, what you find is just a variety of factories making … essentially anything an economy can consume, with the exception of high-tech goods,” he explained.

Brinkley now heads up a team tasked with turning that production capacity into a tool for stability through growth. His Task Force for Business and Stability Operations – Iraq, is charged with evaluating Defense Department business processes and systems that affect contracting, logistics, funds distribution and financial management, to ensure alignment to theater commanders’ goals for reconstruction and economic development in Iraq.

The program originated with Army Lt. Gen. Peter Chiarelli, former commander of Multinational Corps Iraq. Chiarelli identified a relationship between unemployment and insurgent activity after collecting numerous reports of former Iraqi factory employees being paid to lay roadside bombs. According to Brinkley, the connection is obvious.

“Probably the worst time we ever had in the United States of America was the Great Depression,” Brinkley said. “And, the Great Depression was a time of great social unrest. It was violent in areas around the country, and the peak unemployment rate in the United States during the Great Depression, I think, was in 1933, and it peaked at 25 percent.

“The work force in Iraq is experiencing an unemployment rate, an effective unemployment rate, in excess of 50 percent,” he continued. “I don’t know of any population in the world … where if you impose 50 percent unemployment that there aren’t going to be militia roaming the street and people blowing things up. I just accept, and I think most rational people accept, that economic distress creates sympathy for violent activity.”

Turning the employment situation around involves a three-pronged strategy to support the restoration of Iraq’s commercial engine and create markets for Iraqi goods, Brinkley explained.

First, he said, the U.S. military could become a primary consumer, contracting for goods that “meet the requirements of military planners to support our forces.”

The second part, Brinkley said, involves reconnecting “the commercial links that existed throughout Iraq” under the U.N. sanctions. Iraq’s import gap from 1991 to 2003 was made up with domestic industry and business-to-business sales within the country, he explained. “It was part of the fabric that held the society together,” Brinkley said, and holds the hope of mitigating some of the more overt factional tension that has emerged since 2003.

The final piece for now is to attract foreign investment, Brinkley said. His task force is leading U.S., European and regional business executives on tours of Iraqi factories, encouraging the purchase of Iraqi goods, and negotiating contracts to transfer work into Iraq, he said. In the country’s areas of relative stability, he noted, what is “probably the most highly-skilled work force in the Middle East” is capable of manufacturing a wide range of products.

The Iraqi government is funding the factory-turnaround effort, Brinkley said. He added that those factories already selected for rehabilitation are on a “transitional path to privatization, very similar to the model that we’ve seen very effectively used in the Asia-Pacific region, in countries like China.”

Key to the Asia-Pacific model of moving slowly away from state ownership, he said, is privatization in phases: reducing the work force in factories over time; and putting in place profit and loss models.

Iraq is operating in a critical window to successfully restore a diversified, competitive economy, Brinkley cautioned. With pressure on the Iraqi parliament to pass hydrocarbons and revenue-sharing legislation in the near future, he said, the country needs to take active steps now to avoid letting oil become its sole economic driver.

Brinkley described two models typical of oil-rich countries. In the first, he said, foreign companies come into the country, create walled compounds around wells and refineries, and import all of their equipment and labor from abroad. In the second model, energy companies are encouraged through incentives and legislation to consume goods manufactured in the host country and put to use domestic capacity. This latter option is key to successfully managing Iraq’s oil resources, Brinkley said.

The compound model, by comparison, “would be a terrible mistake” since profit would accrue with the government but wouldn’t necessarily reach the population.

If Iraq manages to revitalize its industrial sector, develop markets and encourage investment in a timely manner, Brinkley predicted, “then this country could become something unique in the Middle East – a diversified economy with a skilled work force, a professional middle class, an educated middle class, that serves as an example to the rest of the region.”

He added, “I believe that’s what we’ll see here, and I hope that’s what we see here, but to me this next 6 to 12 months (are) really critical as those decisions are taken and as those first contracts for petroleum development take hold.”



DefenseLink News Article: State-Run Iraqi Enterprises Offer Prospect of Stability, Growth

"218 dinar change since Oct 1st (baseline was 1477) 14.759% increase in value of the dinar since beginning of reval plan (Approximatly Oct 1st)."

I would love to see a wonderfully huge, sorry for correct spelling, bold adjustment of the dinar. One thing, I have learned in this investment is this, it is an investment. This means I must wait for it to happen. I put it in the terms of investing in my children. I might see little gains here and there but most likely it will be a matter of "time" that the progress will be seen.

Keep the faith, do what it right and don't allow this to ruin your life.

God bless

Originally Posted by cooldolphins

Let's just hope this 1259 is not their BOLD adjustment.

After this historic event (1259), anyone who can still be negative - is choosing to be!

Interesting,

This says it all in my opinion. Imagine 50% unemployment rate in U.S., do you think you would be safe in any city in America? I doubt it, in fact many cities are already seeing a rise in violence in recent months, and that is with an effective unemployment rate of under 7%. Sure, they report under 5%, but the effective rate is the one that shows up with increases in violence.

“The work force in Iraq is experiencing an unemployment rate, an effective unemployment rate, in excess of 50 percent,” he continued. “I don’t know of any population in the world … where if you impose 50 percent unemployment that there aren’t going to be militia roaming the street and people blowing things up. I just accept, and I think most rational people accept, that economic distress creates sympathy for violent activity.”

Its all about the money, always has been, always will be. I've said it before, working people who have money for essentials do not blow themselves up. Most who have are poor deperate people who did it for money, not for themselves, but for their families. With the billions wasted on fighting the poor, it could have been used far more productively, especially since we have now heard all the experts say that no military solution will work, only an econimic political solution will work, and here they are still dragging their feet not sharing the oil wealth with their poor and unemployed.

Makes you sick to think how easily this could all be turned around and troops brought home, yet we wait and wait and wait while parliament sits on their collective a$$es padding their own pockets first and formost. Until this issue is addressed, we will see no restoration of value in my opinion. Look at all the reshuffle statements Maliki has made since last year, yet nothing had happened other than Sadr pulling out his block. Sure makes you wonder about Maliki's inability to go through with his numerous threats about reshuffle. This remains a criticle issue, yet nothing is happening without removing all the traders and crooks in parliament.

Good luck and health to all, Mike

Originally Posted by Offshore-Wealth.com

Interesting,

This says it all in my opinion. Imagine 50% unemployment rate in U.S., do you think you would be safe in any city in America? I doubt it, in fact many cities are already seeing a rise in violence in recent months, and that is with an effective unemployment rate of under 7%. Sure, they report under 5%, but the effective rate is the one that shows up with increases in violence.

“The work force in Iraq is experiencing an unemployment rate, an effective unemployment rate, in excess of 50 percent,” he continued. “I don’t know of any population in the world … where if you impose 50 percent unemployment that there aren’t going to be militia roaming the street and people blowing things up. I just accept, and I think most rational people accept, that economic distress creates sympathy for violent activity.”

Its all about the money, always has been, always will be. I've said it before, working people who have money for essentials do not blow themselves up. Most who have are poor deperate people who did it for money, not for themselves, but for their families. With the billions wasted on fighting the poor, it could have been used far more productively, especially since we have now heard all the experts say that no military solution will work, only an econimic political solution will work, and here they are still dragging their feet not sharing the oil wealth with their poor and unemployed.

Makes you sick to think how easily this could all be turned around and troops brought home, yet we wait and wait and wait while parliament sits on their collective a$$es padding their own pockets first and formost. Until this issue is addressed, we will see no restoration of value in my opinion. Look at all the reshuffle statements Maliki has made since last year, yet nothing had happened other than Sadr pulling out his block. Sure makes you wonder about Maliki's inability to go through with his numerous threats about reshuffle. This remains a criticle issue, yet nothing is happening without removing all the traders and crooks in parliament.

Good luck and health to all, Mike

I concur Mike...as long as you have an insufficient government running like they have we will have to wait and wait for a revel.....they do not have a clue at what they are doing...Maliki needs to go.....you can't tell me he can't see what is going on in his own country....people are losing confidence in this government.....fast....its all about pocketing money in their own pockets and to hell with their people.....bold statements from everyone....yet,all we see are delays upon delays .....looking like moneybags was right on with a slow grow....because these Iraqi's have no clue.....IMHO....Pat

Originally Posted by billknows

After this historic event (1259), anyone who can still be negative - is choosing to be!

Very Well Said!



As the value of anything increases, the people with negative outlooks just look for more negatives....

We all choose the way we feel. We all have a choice. You feel the way you do because you CHOOSE to.... I choose to feel optimistic because negativity SUCKS.

Kuwait: Peg move does not kill monetary union Published: Wednesday, 23 May, 2007, 08:36 AM Doha TimeSheikh Salem speaks at a press conference yesterday
KUWAIT CITY: Kuwait’s central bank governor yesterday denied that a decision to stop pegging the dinar to the dollar would mean withdrawing from a planned single currency with other Gulf states.
“Kuwait is engaged in and backs the formation of a single Gulf currency. The ending of the dollar peg does not mean Kuwait will withdraw from the single currency,” Sheikh Salem Abdul Aziz al-Sabah told reporters on the sidelines of a Gulf banking conference.
The Gulf Co-operation Council plans to launch a monetary union and a single currency by 2010.
On Sunday, Kuwait pegged the dinar to a basket of currencies after more than four years of linking it to the dollar, in a bid to reduce inflationary pressures.
Senior economists and analysts said Kuwait’s move made it highly unlikely the GCC would be able to fulfil its hope for a single currency by 2010.
But Sheikh Salem said it was still possible due to the make-up of Kuwait’s currency reserves.
“The central bank will not change the share of the international currencies in the composition of its reserves. The basket is based on Kuwait’s trade and financial relations with other countries as well as its investments abroad,” he said, adding that the dollar still had a “major share” in the basket.
The governor of the UAE central bank announced at the conference that his state’s dirham would remain pegged to the dollar.
“We are going to stick to the decision made by the GCC leaders ... in 2001 to peg their currencies to the US dollar in a fixed peg,” Sultan bin Nasser al-Suweidi told reporters.
The goal of a monetary union was still realistic, Suweidi said.
After Kuwait, the UAE was the most likely candidate to loosen a dollar peg, which the six oil producers had agreed would stay in place until monetary union in 2010, according to analysts polled in March.
Meanwhile, yesterday, Bahrain reiterated that it was committed to maintaining its currency’s peg to the dollar.
Bahrain’s central bank governor said the country did not intend to change its foreign exchange policy or release its dinar currency from the dollar peg.
“The peg to the dollar has worked well for us in Bahrain, it has provided us with economic stability,” Rasheed al-Maraj said on the sidelines of a banking conference in Kuwait.
Last year, Oman said it would not be able to meet the single currency target date, while some countries have reportedly expressed reservations on a number of criteria, fuelling speculation that the launch date may not be met. – Agencies

Sorry to change the subject . . . but I understand they are working on resolving the few remaining differences around the clock . . . good news is expected VERY, VERY, soon . . .

Originally Posted by Hkp

SAWA, 23 May 2007

Deputy Kurd shows a U.S. pressure on all parties to complete the oil law

The deputy said the bloc Kurdistan Alliance Mahmoud Othman said that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki met yesterday with the head of government of the Kurdistan Ngervan Barzani and his accompanying delegation in Baghdad to continue negotiations and talks on the oil and gas.

The deputy pointed Othman said in an interview with "Radio Sawa" to the presence of U.S. pressure on all parties to complete the oil, revealing the visit of an American delegation to the Kurdistan region to reach an agreement on the distribution of oil and gas, pointing out that the head of government of the Kurdistan met in Baghdad, American and British delegation before meeting al-Maliki.

Othman explained that negotiations between Maliki and the Barzani in Baghdad continued, pointing out that the issue of funding forces would also s on the table talks.

He reviewed the deputy Mahmoud Othman, the most important points to be considered by the parties on the law of oil and gas, explaining that the discussion would deal with how to deal with resources and how to control, pointing out that there are four oil supplements to the law, regarding the competence of the National Oil Company, and the drilling of new oil wells

KRG, Kurdistan Regional Government

Best to all . . . RR . . .

Originally Posted by RollsRoyce

Sorry to change the subject . . . but I understand they are working on resolving the few remaining differences around the clock . . . good news is expected VERY, VERY, soon . . .



Best to all . . . RR . . .

RR,

You can interrupt any time with news like that. Hope it comes to fruition in these next few days..

Thanks for the news

Randy

Tips to accept the Kurdish leadership to postpone the Article 140 on Kirkuk

Irbil (May 22) and the agency (Lucky) Italian News -

The Kurdish parliamentary sources it is expected that the Kurdish leadership made concessions regarding the implementation of Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution versus maintaining, what it called "further gains" achieved for the Kurds in Kurdistan.

The transfer site (Sphi) on the Kurdish Jhalak Azad, MP in the House of the Iraqi Sulaymaniyah saying that "there is insistence large blocs of Iraqi political demands with respect to amend some articles of the Constitution, does not provide any of those lumps concessions to each other in order to break the current impasse, therefore Consultations and ongoing meetings on this issue did not yield any desired results.

"And on the willingness of the Kurdish leadership to accept the postponement of the implementation of article 140 of the normalization of Kirkuk under a political deal, Jhalak said,

"All parties must participate in the amendment of the constitution to make concessions, and the Kurds even if offered concessions in this regard, they will be concessions on the principles and main points contained in that article."

The transfer of the site from its own sources as saying that he believed that the Kurdish leadership has agreed to postpone the article 140, as they approved all the oil changes it.

They pointed out that the speech delivered President Massoud Barzani during the meeting yesterday, a number of officials partisan centers where hints willingness of the leadership Kurdish political unraveling of intractable problems in the political process, which occupy the Kurdish street.

It was scheduled to submit the constitutional amendments today, Tuesday, the text failed to make the necessary amendments to some articles of the Iraqi constitution.
Shs/Aki)Shs / Aki)

Translated version of http://www.sotaliraq.com/


EVERY ONE SAYS (all of the latest articles in the Iraqi Press say) THAT THE KURDS ARE WILLING TO FORGO AMMENDMENT 140/142 AS A BENCHMARK FOR THEIR SUPPORT OF HCL -

BUT,

STILL RESTORNING SUNNI CIVIL RIGHTS AND HCL HAVE NOT BE INTRODUCED OFFICIALLY AND THUS NEITHER HAS HAD THE NECESSARY 3 READINGS IN PARLIAMENT TO BECOME A LAW or did I truly miss something from Parliament?

TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR THIS WEEK!
One more session this week and then it off till Sunday...
WITH A WEEK FROM THIS FRIDAY (1 June 2007)
THE OPENING OF THE STOCK MARKET -
ELECTRONICALLY & INTERNATIONALLY
...(Only 5 more Parliament sessions till this event and they need 3 readings of each law)

ARE WE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VIET NAM STOCK MARKET SITUATION - THEY ARE OPEN BUT NO RATE INCREASE WAS MADE?