Thread: Iraq/Dinar News until 5/23/07 Midnight CST

Originally Posted by DayDream

This was posted over on the darkside by "investindinar". Anytime he posts I sit up and take notice, I highly respect him and his opinions. I thought I would post it here for opinions regarding his thoughts on the r/v. If "WmKnowles" doesn't mind I would like to hear his thoughts on this also, as I highly regard his opinions also. As both men have extensive knowledge on economics, it may help us all to hear what these men have to say, and anyone else who would care to throw in their 2 dinars worth.

Neno: fell free to move this if its in the wrong thread

Originally posted by investindinar:

Al Shabibi has been very consistent in his 'go slow' strategy and he's been showing very good results in maintaining a stable currency. The IQD/NID is backed up 100%+ with USD plus some gold which gives the CBI the ability to keep the pace of revaluation without worrying about destabilizing the currency. There's virtually no risk of that happening now.

If what the MoF Jabr Zubaidi said was true regarding the pardoning of 80% of their 140 billion USD debt with the Paris Club nations, then Iraq is literally on the verge of making major progress in the direction of internationalizing their currency. There is simply no way they could internationlize their currency with the existing debt. They need their GDP to be greater than their debt before they can internationalize. They're scheduled to begin buying SDRs from the IMF beginning in 2008 and continuing through 2009. I can't help but think that this development is closely related to the latter. Internationalizing the currency will help increase demand for it. Iraq could use the opportunity to begin financing transactions such as petroleum sales with IQD/NID; not just dollars. Concurrently with this development is the movement by some central banks away from the USD towards a currency basket. This has a promising but unpleasant effect. The higher the IQD/NID goes in relation to the USD, the lower the USD will go in relation to other currencies. We'll be hearing about this a lot more in the near future.

If we can indulge in a little of "reading between the lines" he's apparently inclined to continue the same strategy into the future. There's not going to be a sudden 'surge' in the value of the currency. Only an acceleration of the revaluation. As long as the Iraqi economy remains heavily dollarized, the CBI cannot suddenly increase the value of the IQD/NID. Too many merchants would suffer losses unnecessarily. Internationalizing the currency would accelerate the process of de-dollarization. After the currency is internationalized we may see some large moves, but not until then.

Incidentally, the longer the IQD/NID stays at a low valuation in relation to the USD, the better their exports look and the more IQD the CBI is likely to soak up out of the economy. Hence there is really no rush to get to 1:1 anytime soon. Iraq wouldn't be able to do this anyway. There's simply too many currency units in circulation. This is a long term investment and the biggest gains are going to be made in the stock market (ISX).

Just my 2 dinars worth.

Sincerely,

investindinar
__________________

Cheers!
DayDream

Thanks for bringing this over DD, good read. Kind of ties in with what Wm. Kowles has been telling us. So with the oil and gas summit being pushed back to Sept is there any chance that the stock market being put off again. All this just makes my head spin. Just when all looked on track we get another G-force rollercoaster drop thrown at us.

Originally Posted by DayDream

This was posted over on the darkside by "investindinar". Anytime he posts I sit up and take notice, I highly respect him and his opinions. I thought I would post it here for opinions regarding his thoughts on the r/v. If "WmKnowles" doesn't mind I would like to hear his thoughts on this also, as I highly regard his opinions also. As both men have extensive knowledge on economics, it may help us all to hear what these men have to say, and anyone else who would care to throw in their 2 dinars worth.

Neno: fell free to move this if its in the wrong thread

Originally posted by investindinar:

Al Shabibi has been very consistent in his 'go slow' strategy and he's been showing very good results in maintaining a stable currency. The IQD/NID is backed up 100%+ with USD plus some gold which gives the CBI the ability to keep the pace of revaluation without worrying about destabilizing the currency. There's virtually no risk of that happening now.

If what the MoF Jabr Zubaidi said was true regarding the pardoning of 80% of their 140 billion USD debt with the Paris Club nations, then Iraq is literally on the verge of making major progress in the direction of internationalizing their currency. There is simply no way they could internationlize their currency with the existing debt. They need their GDP to be greater than their debt before they can internationalize. They're scheduled to begin buying SDRs from the IMF beginning in 2008 and continuing through 2009. I can't help but think that this development is closely related to the latter. Internationalizing the currency will help increase demand for it. Iraq could use the opportunity to begin financing transactions such as petroleum sales with IQD/NID; not just dollars. Concurrently with this development is the movement by some central banks away from the USD towards a currency basket. This has a promising but unpleasant effect. The higher the IQD/NID goes in relation to the USD, the lower the USD will go in relation to other currencies. We'll be hearing about this a lot more in the near future.

[COLOR=purple]If we can indulge in a little of "reading between the lines" he's apparently inclined to continue the same strategy into the future. There's not going to be a sudden 'surge' in the value of the currency. Only an acceleration of the revaluation. As long as the Iraqi economy remains heavily dollarized, the CBI cannot suddenly increase the value of the IQD/NID. Too many merchants would suffer losses unnecessarily. Internationalizing the currency would accelerate the process of de-dollarization. After the currency is internationalized we may see some large moves, but not until then.[/COLOR]

Incidentally, the longer the IQD/NID stays at a low valuation in relation to the USD, the better their exports look and the more IQD the CBI is likely to soak up out of the economy. Hence there is really no rush to get to 1:1 anytime soon. Iraq wouldn't be able to do this anyway. There's simply too many currency units in circulation. This is a long term investment and the biggest gains are going to be made in the stock market (ISX).

Just my 2 dinars worth.

Sincerely,

investindinar
__________________

Cheers!
DayDream

How dollarized are they really? If this was true you’d still have a huge black-market for dinar. We know this is virtually nonexistent. All transactions are conducted in dinar. And what losses would Merchants suffer? With a bold adjustment they simply adjust prices… in fact it’s the slow dribble that got merchants hot. Remember the complaints of conducting business and writing contracts as the value changed day to day?

As far as exports look forget it it’s oil 95 % export, which is the very reason they can RV high. The slow dribble growth at some point will fuel further speculation which is something that Central bank governors have on more than one occasion said they wish to avoid.

Plus what about the IMF wanting to end the program and article IV discussions? The low rate doesn’t fit the economic model for the region.

Also this person wishes to accept the official record as accurate and this cannot be so, no way....if scoatias number are even close there is no way the official record is legit. like i've said before it's not in the CBI's interest to publish accurate figures at this time. so don't trust them. even the IMF says its perfectly ok to use deception as a valid ploy to ward off speculation.

Sorry I’m not indulging into this scenario one bit.

Originally Posted by wessgs

Although what has been said about the American Dollar might have some truth to it. I had rather hear it from Rosie O'Donald or CNN this is not the place to bash the dollar. You can't spend any other money in the states and if you can it must be changed to the dollar. While this guy you all get your info from may be smart oh well nuf said.....

Not quite true, I spend Canadian dollars there all the time. And awhile ago, there was some kind of mini up-roar about some pizza chain in Texas accepting peso's for payment. I know what your getting at and agree, but you were slightly off on your statement.

Gloribee

Originally Posted by wciappetta

How dollarized are they really? If this was true you’d still have a huge black-market for dinar. We know this is virtually nonexistent. All transactions are conducted in dinar. And what losses would Merchants suffer? With a bold adjustment they simply adjust prices… in fact it’s the slow dribble that got merchants hot. Remember the complaints of conducting business and writing contracts as the value changed day to day?

As far as exports look forget it it’s oil 95 % export, which is the very reason they can RV high. The slow dribble growth at some point will fuel further speculation which is something that Central bank governors have on more than one occasion said they wish to avoid.

Plus what about the IMF wanting to end the program and article IV discussions? The low rate doesn’t fit the economic model for the region.

Sorry I’m not indulging into this scenario one bit.

Wciappetta, thanks for your insight on this matter and bringing some sanity to this whole dinar investment . Cudos to you!

Hear, Hear Wciappetta! I like your style of thought. Comme on RV with a High and sudden Move. Bring it on Iraq!

I almost deleted the post as it against Rolclubs TOS for other forum back Office copies. If you post it here, it is yours. I respect DD and left it. Thank You for this Below. Better for others to see it in all perspectives. Opinions are a dime a dozen. But with DD respecting this poster, thought I would let this one get some replies.

Originally Posted by wciappetta

How dollarized are they really? If this was true you’d still have a huge black-market for dinar. We know this is virtually nonexistent. All transactions are conducted in dinar. And what losses would Merchants suffer? With a bold adjustment they simply adjust prices… in fact it’s the slow dribble that got merchants hot. Remember the complaints of conducting business and writing contracts as the value changed day to day?

As far as exports look forget it it’s oil 95 % export, which is the very reason they can RV high. The slow dribble growth at some point will fuel further speculation which is something that Central bank governors have on more than one occasion said they wish to avoid.

Plus what about the IMF wanting to end the program and article IV discussions? The low rate doesn’t fit the economic model for the region.

Also this person wishes to accept the official record as accurate and this cannot be so, no way....if scoatias number are even close there is no way the official record is legit. like i've said before it's not in the CBI's interest to publish accurate figures at this time. so don't trust them. even the IMF says its perfectly ok to use deception as a valid ploy to ward off speculation.

Sorry I’m not indulging into this scenario one bit.

Originally Posted by DayDream

sorry if posted already, I posted this also in the "HCL is with parliament" thread:


Officially Rescheduled

Iraq Oil, Gas, Petrochemical & Electricity Summit

2-4 September 2007, Dubai, UAE Full summit details >>> The Iraq Development Program has been advised following consultation with senior officials from the Iraqi Government, the Kurdistan Regional Government and the US Embassy Baghdad to reschedule the Iraq Oil, Gas, Petrochemical & Electricity Summit for 2-4 September 2007. This has come about as a result of ongoing negotiations concerning Iraq’s proposed new hydrocarbon law.

Expectations were that the hydrocarbon law would be in place for the scheduled date, but it has now become clear that the law will take a few more weeks to be passed and that the interests of attending companies and the Iraq Development Program will be best served by ensuring that the event has the strongest and most unified Iraqi support.

Accordingly, it is agreed that 2-4 September will be the best time for the international energy community to gather and discuss hydrocarbon activities within Iraq. The summit will still be taking place at in Dubai, which remains an outstanding venue for the summit.

All confirmed delegates will have their registration forwarded to the rescheduled summit date. Any company or individual who has booked hotel rooms through the Iraq Development Program should cancel their reservation at the latest 72 hours before their scheduled arrival time and no costs will be incurred.

The Iraq Development Program apologises for any inconvenience caused and maintains its commitment to serve the best interests of its delegates in making sure it delivers the strongest possible event for Iraq’s energy sector.

Iraq Oil, Gas, Petrochemical & Electricity Summit

Cheers!
DayDream

lol....what else would you expect from a government that has not gotten anything right yet??.....nothing but more delays.......time for maliki to hit the road....IMHO...Pat....

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

now can you comprehende why a nickel is so hilariously far fetched??

Now can you comprehend that iraq still has anywhere from 8 -12 trillion dinars still in circulation...where as other surrounding countries dont have even a 1/4 of that in circulation. Hence why the value is so high. The cbi is doing a great job of pulling the money supply out...but how much longer can this go on. You know what im saying....... just thought i would mention this for all the newbs out there

Originally Posted by neno

I almost deleted the post as it against Rolclubs TOS for other forum back Office copies. If you post it here, it is yours. I respect DD and left it. Thank You for this Below. Better for others to see it in all perspectives. Opinions are a dime a dozen. But with DD respecting this poster, thought I would let this one get some replies.

OOPS...I was a bad girl ...Thanks for allowing it to stay Neno.
Thanks also to Ward, he is another one who's opinion I value! I myself am not in the slow rise camp and its nice when others can cast doubt on it. As for "investindinar" I recall at one time he did think it could open at .30 just not in the 1:1 camp.

Cheers!
DayDream

Originally Posted by fredgwest1999

Incidentally, the longer the IQD/NID stays at a low valuation in relation to the USD, the better their exports look...

All the while,
Nine million Iraqis live in poverty

An official source at the ministry said that "this survey was conducted on different samples in all governorates; results showed that more than nine million Iraqis are living under the poverty line because a large proportion of them depend on food subsidies and subsidized basic commodities such as fuel, with many Iraqi markets not working regularly.”

SO...let the people starve to death...little children be recruited to make bombs instead of schooling, desperate people forced to become human bombs to supply a secure future for their families

BUT, HEY! Export ratios look good!

But, wait oil is the only export at this time...

again....as long you have a corrupt government and an illiterate government as we have in Iraq right now,what can you expect...its not about this being the first time that they have had to deal with democracy or any other BS that i have heard about in this forum.....this fact right there above says it all.......you don't have to be a Philly lawyer to understand the problem.....its always been about themselves[the Iraqi government].....and not about their people.....as long as they pocket mucho money,they could care less about their people....and as long as the good ole USA keeps sending our troops and spending our money without holding this government responsible,this is what you will get....again...just my humble opinion...Pat