Thread: Iraq/Dinar News until 5/23/07 Midnight CST

Yeah that's what I was thinking, but then looked at the fact that they have been addressing these issues since Nov 06. I am hoping the influence of the IMF, Chaney vist, and the WTO influence these positive changes needed.

Thanks Bltn.....I have been waiting for them to update it......

IMO after reading the specifics in the Oil Law Debate and the reference it makes to production amounts according to the year...........and taking the recontruction efforts into consideration the RV would be in stages. Like something worth 30-70 cents, during rebuilding then 08-09 over a dollar, 2-5 years of uniterupted progress returning to 3+. Just my opinion.....I would love to hear others thoughts on the matter.

HEY SINCE WHEN IS MONDAY RATES DIFFERENT FROM SUNDAY? this is a first that i can remember

Originally Posted by rvalreadydang

HEY SINCE WHEN IS MONDAY RATES DIFFERENT FROM SUNDAY? this is a first that i can remember

Looks like Tuesday maybe the big 1260 day on selling

Originally Posted by railroad

Looks like Tuesday maybe the big 1260 day on selling

Could be, they are chocked full of surprises lately, LOL......i don't beleive it will remain at 1260 though.

Originally Posted by rvalreadydang

Could be, they are chocked full of surprises lately, LOL......i don't beleive it will remain at 1260 though.

Your right....2 things i have learned about Iraqi government...1. always use a pencil when marking your calender, and 2. don't hold your breath waiting on them to make a decision, you will pass out and miss out on what was said.

Originally Posted by cashNsoon

IMO after reading the specifics in the Oil Law Debate and the reference it makes to production amounts according to the year...........and taking the recontruction efforts into consideration the RV would be in stages. Like something worth 30-70 cents, during rebuilding then 08-09 over a dollar, 2-5 years of uniterupted progress returning to 3+. Just my opinion.....I would love to hear others thoughts on the matter.

I guess to some point I could live with this theory. At .70 I still could be some what debt free and sit on the rest for future gain...

Iraq's harsh realities and opportunities
By John Dizard
14 May 2007 (Financial Times)
The American involvement in Iraq is just reaching the top of the roller coaster before starting on the downslope. The differences over timing are measured in months, and not many months at that.
So what is the likely future of Iraq? And, since this is the Financial Times, is there any money to be made or lost from that future?
There are a lot of people with opinions about Iraq, but few who actually know what is going on. One of those is Ali Allawi, whom I met in Baghdad when he was defence minister, and who subsequently was finance minister, and a key figure in the renegotiation of Iraq's sovereign debt. That remains one of the few well executed postwar operations in Iraq.
Presently, Mr Allawi lives most of the time in London, and is the chairman of a company that has partnered in the development of Progas, a Karachi-based liquefied petroleum gas importer and distributor. Dr. Allawi, 60, was educated at MIT and Harvard Business School, and spent his early career at the World Bank. His family is at the centre of the Iraqi elite, in particular of the Shia community. They had left Iraq after the rise of the Ba'ath party and Saddam.
He has just published a book, The Occupation of Iraq, which I recommend to anyone interested in an unvarnished account of the first phase of this war and what followed. He remains, formally, an adviser to Prime Minister Al-Maliki, but, as he says, "I am dormant as an adviser".
I asked Mr Allawi how the situation has developed since he finished the book.
"The symbolic significance of the so-called national unity government is that it keeps the hope alive that some basic agreement can be reached in key issues. What is holding it together is the presence of the US in force. Now this is a quixotic venture that has reached the end of its useful life.
"The current administrative structure is incapable of managing the state or reconstruction."
A key problem, is what Mr Allawi calls the "human resources gap". There just are not many people who know what they are doing. "The government doesn't recognise that they have [this gap]. There are all sorts of people descending on Baghdad from the Iraqi diaspora, not just carpetbaggers and ne'er do wells, but mainly looking for jobs. If you bring in people who pretend to manage and cover up mismanagement with oil money, then you get policies that beggar belief."
What comes next?
"We haven't yet reached the exhaustion point [with the war] in Iraq, but I don't think we are far from the bottom. The only way it can go further down is if there is overt support for the insurgency, as a state policy [of neighbouring countries]."
What follows an American pullback? "That will strengthen the central government's control over the army and security forces, but it will be a sectarian central government that will drive the Sunni into far greater hostility." But that fight will have its limits. "That kind of army will not be able to conquer Sunni territory, like Mosul. In time it will be seen on both sides that the state cannot control the Sunni parts, and it will be seen on the part of the insurgents and their backers that attempting to take back control of the state is futile."
Mr Allawi believes that outsiders could have a role in negotiating and securing an eventual peace. "If there is an Iraqi political settlement, it could take the form of a treaty that not only binds the local contenders, but the region, maybe one in which the distribution of oil revenues is insulated from a capricious central government."
For portfolio investors, Mr Allawi believes the rescheduled foreign debt is secure. "The commercial debt renegotiation was a good deal for Iraq," which any successor governments will want to keep in place. "The total amount of remaining debt to the Gulf states is not as much as originally believed. Net of interest, it is in the $20bn-$25bn range. If that is renegotiated on similar terms, stretched over many years, that is not a significant drain." The 2028 issue, currently trading in the 64-65 range, yields about 10 per cent, or 520 off the US Treasury curve. That's a little lower yield than Ecuador, but, I would agree with Mr Allawi, good value.
As for commercial interests, Mr Allawi says: "I think that if you are in a fast-moving consumer goods business, for example, Iraq has a lot of opportunities. There is a lot of cash there, and a lot of resources."
I can vouch for the cash-richness of the country, and for the size and skills of a diaspora that is just over the horizon. Disastrous as Iraq's situation seems now, we're probably within a year of its worst moment, and post-conflict recoveries can be remarkably quick.

Posted by: nakr2004 on Monday, May 14, 2007 - 02:37 PM

Iraq-Currency
Demand for dollar stable, exchange rate down in Iraqi daily auction
By Dergham Mohamed Ali
Baghdad, May 14, (VOI) – Demand for the dollar was stable in the Iraqi Central Bank’s daily auction on Monday, reaching $77.380 million compared with $77.335 million on Sunday, while the dollar exchange rate went down.
In its daily statement the bank said it had covered all bids, which included $10.490 million in cash and $66.890 million in foreign transfers, at an exchange rate of 1,261 dinars per dollar, one tick lower than yesterday.
Sixteen banks participated in Monday's auction and offered to sell two million dollars. The Iraqi Central Bank bought the entire amount at 1,259 per Iraqi dinar.
Ali al-Yasseri, a trader at the auction, told VOI "the systematic decline in the exchange rate has encouraged traders to make reasonable offers to buy and sell dollars to the Central Bank in today's auction."
The Iraqi Central Bank runs a daily auction from Sunday to Thursday.