Thread: Iraq/Dinar News until 5/23/07 Midnight CST

Number of banks 16 -----
Auction price selling dinar / US $ 1261 -----
Auction price buying dinar / US $ 1259 -----
Amount sold at auction price (US $) 77.380.000 -----
Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) 1.000.000
Total offers for buying (US $) 77.380.000 -----
Total offers for selling (US $) 1.000.000 -----

Gooooooooooooooood Morning Rolclub


"The More They Take, The More We Make"
"Stay the Course, its the difference between Winners and whiners"


10.16 Trillion taken out and still the Party has not started


1. "1" Dinar rate change today, it was 1262, it is now 1261

2. A (net) worth of dinars, IQD - 96,315,180,000 pulled out of circulation today 5/14/07.

3. 16 banks participating today

4. 142nd auction since the beginning of CBI's reval plan

5. 226 days into the CBI's reval plan. (Seven Months +)

6. 10,163,539,338,000 dinars pulled from circulation !!

6A. Conservative ESTIMATE of Dinars still in circulation or controlled by the CBI 6,836,460,662,000

7. "1,259,000,000" Dinars back into circulation today

8. 216 dinar change since Oct 1st (baseline was 1477) 14.624% increase in value of the dinar since beginning of reval plan (Approximatly Oct 1st).

9. 2 point reduction in the rate so far this week. Was at 1263 at the end of last week, 1261 so far this week.

10. 8 point drop in the month of May. Ended at 1269 in April, now stands at 1261
In January we saw a 2.49% drop in the rate.
In February we saw a .928% drop in the rate.
In March we saw a .546% drop in the rate.
In April we saw a .3142% drop in the rate

Originally Posted by adm

Posted by: nakr2004 on Monday, May 14, 2007 - 02:37 PM

Iraq-Currency
Demand for dollar stable, exchange rate down in Iraqi daily auction
By Dergham Mohamed Ali
Baghdad, May 14, (VOI) – Demand for the dollar was stable in the Iraqi Central Bank’s daily auction on Monday, reaching $77.380 million compared with $77.335 million on Sunday, while the dollar exchange rate went down.
In its daily statement the bank said it had covered all bids, which included $10.490 million in cash and $66.890 million in foreign transfers, at an exchange rate of 1,261 dinars per dollar, one tick lower than yesterday.
Sixteen banks participated in Monday's auction and offered to sell two million dollars. The Iraqi Central Bank bought the entire amount at 1,259 per Iraqi dinar.
Ali al-Yasseri, a trader at the auction, told VOI "the systematic decline in the exchange rate has encouraged traders to make reasonable offers to buy and sell dollars to the Central Bank in today's auction."
The Iraqi Central Bank runs a daily auction from Sunday to Thursday.

I do think they know what they are doing, very slick.......now if only they'd have one humoungus jump in their systematic decline

Originally Posted by rvalreadydang

HEY SINCE WHEN IS MONDAY RATES DIFFERENT FROM SUNDAY? this is a first that i can remember

After a long weekend of camping, birthday parties and Mothers Day, I checked in last night and noticed the statement (as usual) on the CBI site stating that Sunday's rate will stay the same on Monday....etc, etc....

Then I see today that they went ahead and dropped another point, contradicting their own statement....

Seems to me that this indicates a plan, and that plan is overriding standard operating procedure in regards to the website....

They are hiding something, and they are trying to keep it "normal looking" on the website....

Hopefully this week will reveal what they've been hiding!

Have a great week everyone!

Hi, We have had possibly the largest drop in the rate so far this month compared with previous months, anybody have any ideas as to why, also what determines a drop in the rate, do they get in the morning and say lets drop it a point today or no we wont do anything this week, as I said they have dropped at least a point every day this month so far. Or are we fast approaching the time of a revalue and they need to drop these points quicker to reach there target figure. Also with Iraqi stock exchange supposedly opening on the 1st June to us foreign investors will we see this revalue as if they dont we will all be rushing to buy up their country for next to nothing. It was mentioned in the British press on Saturday that the Chinese have trillions to invest and some of the british banks shares have risen, could some of this investment go Iraqs way?????.

Iraq's harsh realities and opportunities
By John Dizard
14 May 2007 (Financial Times)
The American involvement in Iraq is just reaching the top of the roller coaster before starting on the downslope. The differences over timing are measured in months, and not many months at that.
So what is the likely future of Iraq? And, since this is the Financial Times, is there any money to be made or lost from that future?
There are a lot of people with opinions about Iraq, but few who actually know what is going on. One of those is Ali Allawi, whom I met in Baghdad when he was defence minister, and who subsequently was finance minister, and a key figure in the renegotiation of Iraq's sovereign debt. That remains one of the few well executed postwar operations in Iraq.
Presently, Mr Allawi lives most of the time in London, and is the chairman of a company that has partnered in the development of Progas, a Karachi-based liquefied petroleum gas importer and distributor. Dr. Allawi, 60, was educated at MIT and Harvard Business School, and spent his early career at the World Bank. His family is at the centre of the Iraqi elite, in particular of the Shia community. They had left Iraq after the rise of the Ba'ath party and Saddam.
He has just published a book, The Occupation of Iraq, which I recommend to anyone interested in an unvarnished account of the first phase of this war and what followed. He remains, formally, an adviser to Prime Minister Al-Maliki, but, as he says, "I am dormant as an adviser".
I asked Mr Allawi how the situation has developed since he finished the book.
"The symbolic significance of the so-called national unity government is that it keeps the hope alive that some basic agreement can be reached in key issues. What is holding it together is the presence of the US in force. Now this is a quixotic venture that has reached the end of its useful life.
"The current administrative structure is incapable of managing the state or reconstruction."
A key problem, is what Mr Allawi calls the "human resources gap". There just are not many people who know what they are doing. "The government doesn't recognise that they have [this gap]. There are all sorts of people descending on Baghdad from the Iraqi diaspora, not just carpetbaggers and ne'er do wells, but mainly looking for jobs. If you bring in people who pretend to manage and cover up mismanagement with oil money, then you get policies that beggar belief."
What comes next?
"We haven't yet reached the exhaustion point [with the war] in Iraq, but I don't think we are far from the bottom. The only way it can go further down is if there is overt support for the insurgency, as a state policy [of neighbouring countries]."
What follows an American pullback? "That will strengthen the central government's control over the army and security forces, but it will be a sectarian central government that will drive the Sunni into far greater hostility." But that fight will have its limits. "That kind of army will not be able to conquer Sunni territory, like Mosul. In time it will be seen on both sides that the state cannot control the Sunni parts, and it will be seen on the part of the insurgents and their backers that attempting to take back control of the state is futile."
Mr Allawi believes that outsiders could have a role in negotiating and securing an eventual peace. "If there is an Iraqi political settlement, it could take the form of a treaty that not only binds the local contenders, but the region, maybe one in which the distribution of oil revenues is insulated from a capricious central government."
For portfolio investors, Mr Allawi believes the rescheduled foreign debt is secure. "The commercial debt renegotiation was a good deal for Iraq," which any successor governments will want to keep in place. "The total amount of remaining debt to the Gulf states is not as much as originally believed. Net of interest, it is in the $20bn-$25bn range. If that is renegotiated on similar terms, stretched over many years, that is not a significant drain." The 2028 issue, currently trading in the 64-65 range, yields about 10 per cent, or 520 off the US Treasury curve. That's a little lower yield than Ecuador, but, I would agree with Mr Allawi, good value.
As for commercial interests, Mr Allawi says: "I think that if you are in a fast-moving consumer goods business, for example, Iraq has a lot of opportunities. There is a lot of cash there, and a lot of resources."
I can vouch for the cash-richness of the country, and for the size and skills of a diaspora that is just over the horizon. Disastrous as Iraq's situation seems now, we're probably within a year of its worst moment, and post-conflict recoveries can be remarkably quick.

Originally Posted by Socata 850

Number of banks 16 -----
Auction price selling dinar / US $ 1261 -----
Auction price buying dinar / US $ 1259 -----
Amount sold at auction price (US $) 77.380.000 -----
Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) 1.000.000
Total offers for buying (US $) 77.380.000 -----
Total offers for selling (US $) 1.000.000 -----

Gooooooooooooooood Morning Rolclub


"The More They Take, The More We Make"
"Stay the Course, its the difference between Winners and whiners"


10.16 Trillion taken out and still the Party has not started


1. "1" Dinar rate change today, it was 1262, it is now 1261

2. A (net) worth of dinars, IQD - 96,315,180,000 pulled out of circulation today 5/14/07.

3. 16 banks participating today

4. 142nd auction since the beginning of CBI's reval plan

5. 226 days into the CBI's reval plan. (Seven Months +)

6. 10,163,539,338,000 dinars pulled from circulation !!

6A. Conservative ESTIMATE of Dinars still in circulation or controlled by the CBI 6,836,460,662,000

7. "1,259,000,000" Dinars back into circulation today

8. 216 dinar change since Oct 1st (baseline was 1477) 14.624% increase in value of the dinar since beginning of reval plan (Approximatly Oct 1st).

9. 2 point reduction in the rate so far this week. Was at 1263 at the end of last week, 1261 so far this week.

10. 8 point drop in the month of May. Ended at 1269 in April, now stands at 1261
In January we saw a 2.49% drop in the rate.
In February we saw a .928% drop in the rate.
In March we saw a .546% drop in the rate.
In April we saw a .3142% drop in the rate

Hello everyone. The question was asked, "where are the dinars coming from that are sold to the CBI"? One plausable answer is that the Iraqis are increasing their savings rate, that the confidence in the banks and the increase in the price of dinars has changed their savings behavior so that they are deposting their dinar in the banks. This allows the local banks to extract dinar from the economy and sell to the CBI. Those deposits would continue to be counted as dinar in circulation, but would in effect be "tabled" and out of the economy as far as money in circulation and its effect on inflation. With the increase in interest rates as a portion of the CBIs monetary ploicy, it seems likely that the increase in value would change the behavior of the Iraqi and others to save, horde, or acquire more dinar. The signal being sent by the CBI is that the dinar has and will continue to rise in value and since they are in effect removing dinar from circulation, the resultant supply would be expected to decrease and decrease inflation and increase demand for the currency. The next offical inflation numbers will gice us a clue if this theory is supported. Once the banks receive the USD for the dinar, they use this to buy Iraqi bonds, US T-bills-bonds etc. This results in an increase in secondary liquidity and since Iraqi requirements are about 37% (many places it is only around 25%) then ultimatly this results in a banking system with a high liquidity level and with enough reserves to support any future/anticipated demand. Its all good for us. Thank You.

For portfolio investors, Mr Allawi believes the rescheduled foreign debt is secure. "The commercial debt renegotiation was a good deal for Iraq," which any successor governments will want to keep in place. "The total amount of remaining debt to the Gulf states is not as much as originally believed. Net of interest, it is in the $20bn-$25bn range. If that is renegotiated on similar terms, stretched over many years, that is not a significant drain." The 2028 issue, currently trading in the 64-65 range, yields about 10 per cent, or 520 off the US Treasury curve. That's a little lower yield than Ecuador, but, I would agree with Mr Allawi, good value.

Very Good Information. Since many fell that the foreign debt and the inflationary levels have always been key issues, what is being said here is that they have the debt down to a managable level. So maybe debt is no longer such a big deal. As far as inflation, we should see some incouraging numbers later this month. Thank You.

Thank you for all your timely interpretations of the articles and events! I really appreciate it.

Originally Posted by cashNsoon

IMO after reading the specifics in the Oil Law Debate and the reference it makes to production amounts according to the year...........and taking the recontruction efforts into consideration the RV would be in stages. Like something worth 30-70 cents, during rebuilding then 08-09 over a dollar, 2-5 years of uniterupted progress returning to 3+. Just my opinion.....I would love to hear others thoughts on the matter.

Anything over 30 cents and I am out of this investment so fast there wil be a week long sandstorm in central Iraq.

eastman

Originally Posted by eastman

Anything over 30 cents and I am out of this investment so fast there wil be a week long sandstorm in central Iraq.

eastman

Will pray for your safety while there!!!