Published: 24/05/2007 12:00 AM (UAE)
Decision on dollar peg gets mixed reaction
By Babu Das Augustine, Banking Editor
Dubai: The UAE government's decision to maintain the dirham's peg to the dollar has created mixed reactions among the banking and business community in the UAE.
His Highness Shaikh Mohammad bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, told reporters in Seoul on Monday that that the government has not discussed a change (in the peg).
The UAE central bank governor also insisted that the UAE is committed to keep its peg to the dollar unchanged.
In recent years the dir-ham and other Gulf currencies have declined against the euro, sterling and a host of Asian currencies, prompting calls to revalue the region's currencies.
Following Kuwait's decision to de-link its currency from the dollar, there has been widespread speculation that the UAE will revalue its currency.
However, there are analysts who believe that an appreciation of GCC currencies would likely to have an overall negative fiscal effect.
According to a recent report by Moody's Investor Services, the bulk of Gulf governments' receipts are derived from hydrocarbon exports that are priced in US dollars at international market rates.
Hence, an appreciation would lower the value of these receipts in local currency terms. In addition, an appreciation in local currencies could negatively affect the balance of payments situation, as the non-hydrocarbon exports of goods and services could be retarded.
"The UAE is benefiting from a weaker dollar as it makes the country a cheaper tourist destination while making exports from UAE very competitive," said Sultan Nasser Al Suwaidi, Governor of the UAE central bank.
"The chances of revaluation of the dirham have diminished. Although the share of imported inflation is small in the UAE, the impact of the declining dollar will continue to affect the purchasing power of the dirham," said Steve Brice, economist with Standard Chartered.
"People have been expecting a revaluation of the dirham to compensate for the decline in its purchasing power. While the country keeps its peg there is always the option to revalue the currency within the peg to alleviate the exchange rate losses suffered by people who are doing business and earnings in dirhams and saving or spending in other currencies," Khalid Maniar, Managing Partner, AGNMAK Accountants and Business Advisors.
"There has always been a strong case for revaluation in the Gulf countries. But ultimately it is the governments and the central banks that have the final say," Ekart Woertz, Programme Manager, Economics at Gulf Research Centre.
Gulfnews: Decision on dollar peg gets mixed reaction