Thread: Iraq/Dinar Until June 9th 1PM CST

Middle East Economic Survey



VOL. XLIX

No 23

4-June-2007



IRAQ



Oil, The State And Economic Policy In Iraq



By Misbah Kamal



The following article was written for MEES by Misbah Kamal, Senior Research Consultant, United Insurance Brokers Limited. The article reflects the writer’s personal views.



Despite the plethora of US and Iraqi government-sponsored meetings inside Iraq, and even more outside, and the numerous documents produced on Iraq’s economy by the government’s foreign advisors and the US administration, there is insufficient understanding of the dynamics of the country’s post-2003 economy and its future direction. Recipes meant for developed stable countries are proposed for Iraq’s fractured economy.



The successive Iraqi governments have failed to produce an integrated long-term economic program. This is invariably blamed on violence, insecurity and Saddam-era economics. Their piecemeal economic policies, however, are not effective because of the political and sectarian infestation of most ministries concerned with reconstruction, manned by incompetent executives. But perhaps the lack of a consensual national vision (strategy and policies) explains why the acute problems of the economy persist. This view is not shared by US officials. For example, in testimony before the House Foreign Relations Subcommittee on International Organizations, Human Rights and Oversight, David Satterfield, the State Department’s senior Iraqi coordinator, asserted that “Iraq would need $4bn to help spend the $12.5bn the Iraqi government already has in its accounts.” The purpose is to build “what accountants call ‘budget execution capacity’ a top priority now for provincial reconstruction teams. Why couldn't Iraq spend these monies? Why couldn't the oil [minister] spend the $3.5bn in his capital investment budget? Only some 6% was actually spent. The answer is not corruption. It’s not politics. It’s not security. It is literally the lack of mechanisms, the lack of the experience and capacity to spend funds which exist in Iraqi hands.”1



The shortage of “budget execution capacity” has some merit, in the sectarian context where professionals have been pushed aside or removed, but like the constantly invoked lack of security, it is a reductionist explanation. Despite the brain drain, Iraq does not lack the human resources needed to carry out policies and daily operations. Take the oil industry as an example: “Iraq has a vast contingent of oil experts skilled in all aspects of the industry: petroleum and reservoir engineers, geologists, drillers etc, as well as engineers and scientists who deal with the overground aspects.”2



Evidently, the role of insecurity cannot be easily dismissed but there appears to be a dynamic inter-relationship between poor economic performance, unemployment, poverty, malnutrition, social degradation and the continuing violence and lack of security, which is enhancing the shadow economy and giving rise to new forms of organised crime. Nevertheless, attracting people to work is not difficult, as testified by the thousands who are employed by Baghdad municipality to clean roads and sites of terrorist vehicle explosions. What is lacking is job creation, which is talked about but not implemented apparently pending the miraculous emergence of the private sector to do so.



Centrality Of Oil Revenues

Most commentators acknowledge the centrality of oil revenues as well as the burdensome legacy of the Saddam era, the destruction and damage to utilities and public enterprises diligently wrought by the US in 1991 and its invasion in 2003 and the ongoing damage and destruction of infrastructure and the social fabric by terrorist activity and the lack of security. However, the economic policies of Iraq’s government, or the lack of policies other than the mandatory call for privatization, condemnation of state-owned enterprises, desperation for foreign investment and the implicit belief in the “invisible hand” in directing the economy and seeking guidance form the IMF, have not attracted sufficient attention.



In reading the USAID’s Iraq Transition Strategy Plan (2006-2008), one is struck by the ominous absence of any reference to the petroleum sector and its revenues although USAID and its appointed consultants have assumed the role of restructuring Iraq’s economy. Instead, the strategy on the economic track is focused on expanding private sector opportunities. Under the heading Strategic Objective 2: The Economic Track – Expand Private Sector Opportunities, USAID singles out the components of this strategy: increasing access to financial services; strengthening agricultural capacity and productivity; promoting privatization and business development; advancing policy, subsidy, regulatory, and transparency reforms.3



In contrast, Sabri Zire al-Saadi has been advocating, in many of his published papers, the centrality of oil revenues for regenerating Iraq’s economy – but not in the demagogic sense of distributing oil revenues among the people on the Alaskan model but as part of a long-term strategic economic plan having the objective of creating the necessary conditions to diversify the economy away from total reliance on oil rent and create a proper space for private enterprise. Combining practical experience in planning and economic development and in-depth knowledge of Iraq’s economic history, he has stressed that oil policy must be an integral part of the country’s strategic economic policy.4 Instead, thanks to the ill-thought measures and mismanaged projects by successive post-2003 governments and the disappearance of massive amounts of cash from the Development Fund of Iraq managed by the US, priority has been given to a petroleum law – and not, for example the reviving of the Iraqi National Oil Company – in isolation from economic policy.



Seeds Of Corruption

The framework for this approach was constructed by the US proconsul Paul Bremer in 2003 with his 100 or so orders, some of which were ideologically motivated. Thus, we had regulations permitting unrestricted imports and abolition of custom duty save for the 5% reconstruction levy, a flat 15% individual and corporate income tax, etc. But the mere drafting of laws is not sufficient in itself to tackle the stifled development of the economy while the rentier economy has just been operating thanks to oil revenues. Dr Saadi again: “The experience also ascertained the worry of deepening the country’s dependence on oil revenues as excessive spending of abundant oil revenues has produced nothing, but more corruption. Economic failure has encouraged (weak) politicians, incompetent officials, international organizations, and corrupted elements to rely more on foreign loans and financial assistance. This is another negative aspect of the current economic policies.”5



What is needed, according to Dr Saadi is a strategic national vision and an agency. Oil revenues are central for such a vision. What he is calling for is the formation of a political platform, a bloc, an agent that will work out and implement the long-term economic strategy. The objective of this strategy is:6



1. Transformation of the oil-based rentier economy into a competitive market economy by accelerating economic diversification. The low level of private saving, consumption and non-oil production and exports makes Iraq more dependent on oil revenues if the economic parameters remain as they are.



2. Increasing economic growth and alleviation of unemployment, improvement in education and health services [human development]. This requires mobilizing oil revenues, fiscal and monetary policies towards public investment as this would be the most essential element of effective aggregate demand and creating opportunities for Iraq’s nascent private sector.



The focus on financial changes does not achieve economic growth and development. Equally, peddling the wares of a newly learnt business culture and private initiatives is not a substitute for proper understanding of a market-based economy, and the role of the state and public and private enterprise in reconstruction and development. Changing the economic structure requires massive investment. Public investment, in the form of a huge public works program as part of an economic plan, is most important at present as private investment is negligible. Public investment, financed by oil revenues and operated by the state (government), should assume priority and it is this investment that will create the conditions for private investment.



Reliance on the misunderstood free market and the privatization mantra, crudely peddled by Iraq’s politicians in power, is no panacea for getting out of the current crisis-ridden economy manifested in high rate of unemployment (percentages varying from 30% to 60% or more, depending on age and gender), the prevalence of poverty and malnutrition, deterioration of basic services and declining infrastructure, material and human waste (brain drain, internal sectarian displacement, emigration and a growing refugee problem) poor investment record (national and foreign), corruption and insecurity.



Separating the market economy from the state is a fiction well beloved by neo-liberal doctrinaires. No such separation exists except for ideological reasons. The role of the state remains central as a stabilizing and facilitating force otherwise the Hobbesian war of all against all will be the order of the day where life is short, nasty and brutish – occupation and terrorism are underpinning the emergence of such a state in the form of a limited civil war,7 social decay and humanitarian crisis.8



A capitalist economic system cannot function without the state, regulation and legal restraint, public spending and monopoly of violence by the state. The obfuscation concerning the role of the state rests on undermining the state in the name of civil society and on what appears to be innocent reference to the private and public sector, praising the former and belittling the latter.



Monetary Policy Obsession

Nor is the near obsession with monetary policy, as practised by the Central Bank of Iraq, helpful in kick-starting economic growth. The focusing of policy on containing inflation by raising the exchange value of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar is not leading to the desired result, while the price of fuel has been increased with spiralling impact on the price of other goods and services. Instead of being an agent for economic development the Central Bank of Iraq has been re-modelled on a neo-liberal basis:9 focusing on its independence (meant to deny the bank any role in financing government activity, eg deficit financing), curbing inflation (bank should not be concerned with other goals such as promoting full employment, supporting industrial policy or allocating credit to sectors of special social need, such as housing) and indirect application of monetary tools (short-term interest rates).



Under these conditions, a bold initiative is needed on both the political and economic fronts, hinged on the willingness of democratic forces in Iraq to formulate a national vision and offer it to the people for debate and participation. This would be an open school for developing capacity and forming opinion leaders. Dr Saadi locates the agency in the liberal and social democratic parties and movements as the dominant Islamic parties do not have what he calls “scope for contemporary economics” nor are they particularly interested in social progress. They are “exploiting the people’s discontent for promoting their vague objectives,” and keener on observing religious rites and maintaining political control than working out economic policies. The failure of the government to tackle the dire economic conditions points to the necessity of strengthening the democratic movement, articulating its alternative vision and promoting it among the people. This is not an unrealistic expectation given the fact that 12mn Iraqis braved the violence and insecurity to cast their votes in a referendum on the constitution and parliamentary elections.



Oil Role/Management Debate

More than ever before, the role of Iraq’s oil revenue and the management of its oil resources have become hot topics for debate. The adoption by the Council of Ministers of the Oil and Gas Bill 2007 has heightened the debate. Here, two extreme positions can be identified. One, calling for putting the bill on the statute book as it stands, is supported by vested interests at home and abroad. The US administration and its disciples in Iraq are keen on this legislation. This kind of license is denied to others, as it would be dubbed as interference in internal affairs. The other extreme position is totally opposed to the bill on the putative ground of sovereignty and defending the undefined higher interests of Iraq. This camp includes Ba΄thists and some religious elements. In truth, the conflict over the bill is political and regionally ethnic; it is a struggle for controlling resources and the US imperium is not far from the scene. The absorption of oil revenues, putting the financing of the ordinary and investment budgets aside, to serve parochial and foreign interests rather than the Iraqi economy as a whole and the entire well-being of the country is a recipe for more disintegration and future conflict.



What is advocated here runs counter to the role that the yet-to-be-formed democratic bloc wishes to play. External initiatives, starting with the US invasion, have been the cause of the dire state of the economy. Future initiatives will be more of the same – discussed ad nausea, but without tangible results. There remains the role of external forces and the question of US activities within Iraq as a dependent state with impaired sovereignty and a weak state at that. Iraq as it exists now is destined to fall under the influence of external forces of the advanced industrialized countries. This will come through international financial institutions, foreign loans and assistance, multinational corporations, commodity markets and other vehicles that serve their economic interests.



The involvement of international financial institutions and the US imperium is and will be advocated on various grounds by local vested interests. Already the groups behind these interests are benignly and apologetically talking about the mistakes of the US occupation (the invasion is not questioned on legal or any other grounds) and the process of transforming Iraq in line with US prescriptions. The US defines what Iraq’s economic priorities should be. Here is how the US Undersecretary of Commerce outlined the “Economic Priorities” in Iraq10:

“Enhance market incentives.

Commercialize State Owned Enterprises (SOEs).

Reform the Public Distribution System (PDS).

Enhance the banking sector.

Develop housing and construction – stabilize land ownership.

Fight corruption”.

The US and the international financial institutions are trying, directly or indirectly, to transform the economy on the ideological basis of neo-liberalism. The outcome of this attempt is yet to be seen as the post-2003 period remains, to date, a hybrid rudderless coterie of dilapidated structures and poorly operating entities.



Lack Of Planning

Planning, in one form or another, has been a feature of the economy; but today it is met with abhorrence on ideological grounds although post-conflict conditions require planning, at least in the form of indicative planning, at the macro-economic level and not command and control from the top. Such a plan should assign a defined role for oil revenue — to be used to move the economy away from excessive reliance on it. These days we see an obsession with presenting detailed recommendations to do this or that in endless meetings and seminars mostly outside Iraq. Such an approach would be appropriate for a corporation and not for directing the economy; it is not a substitute for strategic and policy formulation.



Also the government and parliament are failing to monitor the performance of the economy. The political parties are no better in this regard. In the much talked about transformation of the economy away from the putative domination of the public sector, as though that is indeed the case or the declared policy of the present government, the facilitating role of the state in development is forgotten. The dynamics of economic development require accumulation and the creation of an economic surplus. To achieve that, individuals must have the freedom and capacity to interact — to be able to exercise their basic human rights and enjoy their entitlement to health, learning, peace and security and protection of their personal and property rights. To date, the Iraqi state, weakened by the ancien regime, 13 years of a comprehensive UN sanctions regime and its almost complete destruction by the US invasion and occupation can hardly deliver the social goods expected from a modern state.

Iraq holds its breath for the vital summer ahead (by Roland Watson) Print

Monday , 04 June 2007

Iraq holds its breath for the vital summer ahead

For Western officials who had hoped that their stint in Baghdad would help to craft a better future for Iraq, the kidnapping of five Britons is guaranteed to sap morale and energy.

If any further proof was needed that the “red zone” -- the real Iraq that lies beyond the relative safety of the “green zone” -- was hostile territory, this was it.Even within the blast-walled “sanctuary,” reality has long caught up with the green zone. A zone it remains, but green it is not. “’Green zone’ makes it sound as if it’s safe, and it’s not,” sighs a US diplomat.
When I visited Baghdad last week the mood among the Iraqi politicians, coalition forces and Western diplomats appeared at best uncertain. Only the Peruvian soldiers who man checkpoints gave nothing away; others let their body language do the talking.

Hussein al-Falluji, a deputy from the largest Sunni bloc, says: “When I sit with the Americans, I feel a kind of weakness [from them]. When I look in their eyes I feel that they are not the same as in 2003. From the inside they feel like they are failing here.”

The birth of the green zone harks back to a time of exhilarating innocence when all things seemed possible. But four years of chaotic upheaval and unfulfilled hope have left a palpable weariness.

For the first-time visitor Donald Rumsfeld’s dictum explaining the post-invasion looting -- “freedom’s untidy” -- springs quickly to mind. What stands out are the plastic bags snagged on razor wire, barriers of rubble or blackened palm trunks blocking streets, pocked surfaces, a burnt-out car, drivers on the wrong side of the road. In the early evening, with curfew approaching, it is easier to count plastic bottles offering black-market petrol than children.

It is understandable, therefore, that if you paint a picture of brighter possibilities for Iraq, few people look. Invite them through an open door marked “optimism” and they shy away.

The next few months are critical to Iraq. For the past year, security concerns have demanded priority. Now politics has to catch up. Agreements between sectarian and ethnic leaders on dividing Iraq’s future oil revenue, allowing Baathists back into work and rewriting parts of the Constitution to address the grievances of Sunnis who virtually boycotted the original drafting -- all of these would help solidify the US security surge, which has made some gains while being apparently powerless to stop brazen kidnappings like that of the five Britons this week.

Some green zoners, British included, are uneasy with the way that Ryan Crocker, the US ambassador, is trying to force the pace. The fear is that deals brokered to meet Washington deadlines may prove suspect to Iraqis at large, and therefore flaky.

But unless Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of coalition forces, is able to report positive movement when he delivers his status report in September, there will be the small matter of a US political crisis, with crucial issues about the funding and duration of the US presence hanging unresolved.

Despite the stakes, no one is predicting significant progress, let alone expecting it. Western officials have been stung too often to talk up prospects. Gen. John Allen, deputy commanding officer of US forces in western Iraq, covering the restive Anbar province, says he is “confident that there has been progress” there -- an interesting use of tense and a cautionary reminder of past false dawns.

Sunni leaders excoriate the Shia-led government. Mamoun Sami Rashid al-Awani, governor of Anbar and a US ally in tackling al-Qaeda, accuses Baghdad of threatening local security advances by at best failing, and at worst refusing, to improve the patchy supply of the three basics -- electricity, petrol and water -- that still dogs the country.

Meanwhile street-level Shia leaders breathe fiery resistance. “If the occupiers stay here, we will not develop for 100 years,” says a commander of the Mahdi Army who helps to control much of what goes on in the volatile slum of Sadr City.

The recent fortunes of Anbar, furnace of the Sunni insurgency, highlight the positive signs while underlining the dangers of over-interpreting them. Al-Qaeda has largely been expelled from towns and cities, according to Gen. Allen. One version has it that locals in Ramadi turned against the terrorists when two boys who refused a jihadi order to stop riding their bikes were beheaded. Yet the fighters, and the violence, have simply moved to Diyala province.

The number of police recruits in Anbar has increased hugely, from 2,000 last year to 14,000, a positive sign, perhaps, of Iraqis embracing their future. Many are assumed to be former insurgents -- not necessarily a problem if they have decided to join civil society -- but the statistic is wholly irrelevant if they remain at heart violent sectarians masquerading as the law. Yet some claim that policemen are currently not being paid, an act of possibly willful negligence by Interior Ministry officials. And according to Mr. al-Falluji, some 90 percent of Anbar still supports the resistance, viewing Americans with hostility and the Baghdad government as the plaything of Iran.

There is hope, though, for Iraq’s domestic politics. Nouri al-Maliki struggles to assert prime ministerial authority and may distrust many of those with whom he has to strike deals. But there are signs, according to Western officials, that Sunni and Shia leaders have agreed the outline of a new constitution.

This, though, is not a bilateral negotiation, and there are concerns that the Kurds, who did well out of the original draft, may refuse to play ball. The ill-health of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader of Iraq’s largest Shia party, who has lung cancer, will not help a swift result.

There are two scenarios for Iraq. One involves the US-issued, ecofriendly light bulbs that glow in the chandeliers of Saddam Hussein’s Republican Palace, the current US Embassy. But they could yet serve as a metaphor for the whole venture: well intentioned, expensive yet failing to understanding life in the real Iraq and irrelevant to it. Too much time spent on energy-saving light bulbs powered by a green zone generator, not enough on providing electricity for those outside.

The other envisages Iraq’s leaders reaching a political settlement and the surging US troops reducing violence to the point where Washington and Baghdad are happy for coalition forces to leave. Perhaps some barriers could even come down.

The trouble with the latter is that no one, not even those involved, is gambling a single dinar on it being remotely that straightforward.

* Foreign editor of The Times

by
ROLAND WATSON*

Iraqi News
Monday, June 04, 2007 Iraq to issue new oil law
(MENAFN) The General-Director for Iraq's Ministry of Oil stated that the minister anticipates that the country's new oil law will be passed by the Iraqi parliament within the next two months, Iraq Directory reported. He also went on to say that after the validation of the oil law, Iraqi officials are looking to auction up to fifteen percent of the nation's oil and gas land resources and that the minister has recently visited India to draw investors to Iraq's oil sector. It is worth mentioning that the most significant factor in the issuance of the country's oil law is the allocation of Iraq's oil profits among the country's diverse factions.


Trade Bank of Iraq - Your Trade and Investment Partner in Iraq

Top Financial News

Financial Leverage May Boost Global Economic Growth (Update1)

By Rich Miller and Simon Kennedy

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- When it comes to world economic growth, the glass is suddenly looking a lot more than half full.

Not only is the global economy confounding concerns about a slump, it's even performing better than some of the most upbeat analysts were predicting just a few weeks ago. Worldwide growth looks set to outstrip forecasts for a sixth straight year in 2007.

``Perhaps it's time to stop looking for reasons why the global economy will crash and instead think about sources for optimism,'' says Dario Perkins, senior European economist at ABN Amro Holding NV in London and a former U.K. Treasury official.

Behind the surprising strength: something old and something new. A resurgence in old-economy manufacturing and a wave of new-style financing are combining to push down unemployment and boost corporate profits. So far, these trends aren't fanning widespread alarms about a surge in inflation.

Manufacturers worldwide are revving up production after bringing down inventories. Some, including Toyota Motor Corp., 3M Co. and Caterpillar Inc., are even adding capacity.

Meanwhile, a new crop of financiers -- including hedge funds and private-equity firms such as Chicago-based Madison Dearborn Partners LLC -- is providing fuel for still more growth by leveraging hundreds of billions of dollars in assets.

The combination sets the stage for a faster rebound in the U.S., while helping Germany and China defy forecasts of a slowdown.

Growth Forecast

``The current economic situation is in many ways better than what we have experienced in years,'' says Jean-Philippe Cotis, chief economist at the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which just raised its 2007 growth forecast for its 30 member nations to 2.7 percent from 2.5 percent.

As investors tune into the theme of sustained growth, stocks stand to benefit and bonds to suffer.

Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes and comparable European securities are up about three-tenths of a percentage point over the past month.

What's driving the higher rates is stronger growth -- and the increased demand for credit that it spawns -- not signals of rising prices. Inflation expectations, measured by inflation- indexed bonds in the U.S. and Europe, have barely budged.

``We're comfortable with the rise in bond yields,'' says David Malpass, chief economist at Bear Stearns & Co. in New York. ``It's related to growth and not to a change in the inflation outlook.''

Foreigners' U.S. Holdings

That's made foreign investors more comfortable about holding U.S. debt, and their buying has helped limit the increase in yields. At about 4.95 percent, the yield on 10-year Treasuries is in line with the average since 1997.

Foreigners own a record 80 percent of three- to 10-year Treasuries, the largest share since the 1800s, says Alan Taylor, professor of economic history at the University of California, Davis.

Still, the risk remains that central banks will view faster growth as a harbinger of accelerating inflation and feel compelled to raise interest rates, smothering the expansion. The European Central Bank is predicted to raise its benchmark rate to 4 percent, the highest since September 2001, this week.

Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, sees as much as a 25 percent chance that growth this year will be strong enough to force central banks to slam on the brakes.

Below the Peak

So far, though, there's little to suggest overreaction. JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s global interest-rate indicator, based on the policies of 31 central banks, stands at 4.67 percent, below the 7.02 percent peak in November 2000, before worldwide growth slowed by almost half.

Also fueling the expansion are new sources of finance that have sprung up outside the banking sector. Hedge-fund assets have tripled in the past decade to $1.57 trillion. Private- equity companies may be headed for a record year of acquisitions, bidding $451 billion for companies so far this year, versus $229 billion in the same period a year earlier, according to Bloomberg data.

Madison Dearborn Partners, the manager of a $6.5 billion leveraged-buyout fund, agreed last week to buy CDW Corp. for about $7.3 billion to tap cash flow generated by the Vernon Hills, Illinois-based computer reseller.

`Pumping Up' the Economy

Such financing is ``pumping up the global economy in ways we haven't seen before,'' says Allen Sinai, president of New York-based consultants Decision Economics.

Sinai expects worldwide growth above 5 percent this year, faster than the International Monetary Fund's 4.9 percent April projection. If Sinai's right, 2007 would be the sixth straight year that the IMF's spring forecast proved too conservative.

In the U.S., economists are increasing their second-quarter forecasts as manufacturers step up production, rebuild inventories and spend to expand. Industrial production rose twice as fast as forecast in April as automakers and high-tech firms increased output. Economic reports on June 1 showed U.S. manufacturing and employment both expanded more than forecast in May.

Toyota, Japan's largest automaker, last month boosted worldwide output by 4.2 percent from a year earlier. The Toyota City, Japan-based company plans to raise annual production capacity in North America by about 700,000 vehicles to 2.2 million by 2010.

Such business expansion would help offset a projected slowdown in spending by consumers, who've been hit by a 37 percent rise in gasoline prices this year.

`Worst is Behind Us'

``The worst is behind us,'' says Chris Varvares, president of St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers, who sees growth accelerating to 3 percent in the second quarter from 0.6 percent in the first, the slowest in more than four years. ``That's why the stock market is looking good.''

The Standard & Poor's 500 index has risen 3.5 percent in the last month. Profits of companies in the index increased by more than 10 percent in the first quarter, four times faster than analysts forecast in April, thanks in part to stronger sales overseas.

At 3M, the St. Paul, Minnesota-based maker of products from Post-it Notes to road signs, increased business in China and India contributed to a 52 percent surge in first-quarter profit.

``Asian economies from Japan to China all look to be powering ahead,'' says Derek Halpenny, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London.

Rising Production

Chinese industrial production has picked up, growing at a year-over-year rate of 18 percent in the first four months of 2007, up from a two-year low pace of 14.7 percent in October.

The World Bank last week raised its growth forecast for the world's fourth-largest economy to 10.4 percent from the 9.6 percent it predicted last November.

In the 13-nation euro zone, the economy is also defying forecasts of a slowdown, thanks to a resurgence in Germany, the largest of the countries that share the currency.

Labeled a ``sick man'' in the 1990s, Germany is reaping rewards after companies such as Munich-based Siemens AG, Europe's biggest engineering company, and Stuttgart-based DaimlerChrysler AG, the world's largest truckmaker, restructured to stay competitive.



``We're not going to slow anytime soon in Europe,'' says Stephane Deo, chief European economist at UBS AG in London, who expects the ECB to boost its 2.5 percent growth forecast this week.

``We have been very optimistic on global growth, but even we have been pleasantly surprised,'' says Larry Kantor, co-head of research at Barclays Capital in New York.

To contact the reporters on this story: Rich Miller in Washington at [email protected] ; Simon Kennedy in Paris at [email protected]

Guys, could i perhaps request that you all come and share your views in this thread after reading my post.
http://www.rolclub.com/rumors-predic...tml#post212315

regards
admin

(Voice of Iraq) - 06-06-2007

774 ...774 billion $ 1.5 billion ... 2006 Iraqi value of the shares plummeted 30% in 2006
BAGHDAD - Adel Mahdi life-06/06/07

اThe number of shares registered in the «Iraq market for securities», from 432 billion special shares with 85 companies in 2005 to 774 billion shares by 93 private companies at the end of last year. while the market value of the shares traded 3160 billion dinars (2.136 billion dollars) in 2005 but declined losing 30% of its value to 1949 billion dinars ($ 1.5 billion), and the price index of shares traded was 38209 points at the beginning of last year. closed down to 25288 points at the end of the same year.

The Executive Director of «market» In an interview with the «life», Taha Ahmed Abdul Salam, the circulation indicators show a decline in circulation in the past year, compared to the previous year for several reasons, most notably lack of stability and security and exacerbating the problems associated with the daily lives of citizens and the retreat of the performance of a few companies Iraqi troop.

He pointed out that Abdel-Salam, this did not prevent the continuation of the ongoing work plans in the market and continuing circulation of investors.

He added that efforts were sincere and sound in order to preserve the gains of vital market reflected in the recording market in «Union of Arab capital markets» in June (June) last year, because of its impact on the development of a culture of the Iraqi Stock Exchange and the development of legislation and regulations prevailing and raise the efficiency of their performance, in addition to activating the media activities of the market through the issuance of capital market newspaper.

He told Executive Director «Iraqi bourse» to «important issue» on the Board of Governors successful in obtaining financial aid from donor countries, estimated at more than seven million dollars in 2006, allocated for the development of mechanisms dealing in the market,

By way of circulation manual to electronic trading through the signing of an agreement with the company «or mother VX» Swedish that have already implemented automation projects in 30 Arab and international bourse, to provide the market system «Horizon» electronic trading system and the central filing system «Equator».

Abdul Salam explained that the memorial hall in the internal networks market ended, and the training plan to the requirements of these regulations is expected to be completed on a large scale include the President and members of «the securities» and the Board of Governors of the market and associate.

He pointed out that within the plan of this project, a direct link between the «market for securities Iraq» and the «body securities» sites mediation offices, businesses, banks and non-governmental organizations, in addition to linking the network with nationwide circulation after opening the rooms are electronically connected to the location of the market in Baghdad and then move to link globally.

He pointed out that Abdul Salam this development, which included a performance at all levels of the market, is expected to achieve many advantages, notably by increasing the number of weekly circulation and increase the number of contracts executed at one and increase the rate of turnover of shares, which means achieving the goals of high liquidity of the shares as a tool of investment, in addition to achieving high efficiency in the process of storage and preservation of shares in the placement and hence the speed and accuracy of the issuance of certificates of shares before and after circulation.

He concluded Executive Director told »bourse Iraqi» that this accomplishment achieved by the broad market coincided with the issuance of Investment Law No. 13 of 2006, pointing out that a committee of the Board of Governors took preparation instructions implementation, especially with regard to the circulation of non-Iraqis in the stock market in Iraq.

Translated version of http://www.sotaliraq.com/

What is Investment Law No. 13 of 2006?

Invitation to spare the Arabs of Kirkuk responsibility for the regime's policies

(Voice of Iraq) - 06-06-2007

Invitation to spare the Arabs of Kirkuk responsibility for the policies of the former regime

- 06/06/07//Kirkuk, Sulaymaniyah - Mohammed al-Tamimi life-06/06/07 / /
The Arab tribes to «sparing incoming Arab» responsibility for the policies of the former regime in Kirkuk and the freedom to stay with them to ensure their legitimate rights with the explosion of controversy within the Kurdish Parliament on the Islamic identity in the Constitution of the Territory.

President clan Jabbour Sheikh Wasfi Aasi said that «the presence of Arabs in Kirkuk arrivals consistent with the presence of thousands of Kurds in other Iraqi cities», pointed out that «survival Arab families should not be interpreted as a continuation of the policies of the former regime also finds some of the parties, because survival in the city consistent with the presence of thousands of Kurdish families in Basra, Anbar, Baghdad and other Iraqi cities ».

The representative of the President of the Kurdistan region in the Special Committee to normalize the situation in Kirkuk refusal to involve the United Nations in finding a compromise (by Arab and Turkmen parties) and called for their involvement if it fails Commission charged the application of Article 140, or send an official delegation to supervise the referendum expected to be implemented late this year to determine the future of the city.

The President of the Parliament of Kurdistan leader Jalal Talabani Party Chairman Adnan Mufti, the Kurdish authorities to reject prejudice to Article 140, or deferred, and called for expediting the completion of the remaining decisions on restoring the situation to what it was before the former President Saddam Hussein's authority in the country.

In the meantime, the women's organizations and secular personalities in the parliament of Kurdistan b «respect for the privacy of minorities and religions coexisting in Kurdistan» and the abolition of the article on the religious identity of the Kurds.

.She Xamán Zarar that «a sensation going on between members of the Kurdistan parliament on the adoption of the Islamic Sharia in the formulation of materials and items of the constitution of Kurdistan has called for the drafting of a secular Constitution guarantees the rights of religious and ethnic minorities and religious and religion should be separated from power».
It added that «

What we do not interfere with the principles of the Iraqi constitution emphasizes drafted in the no conflict with its principles of democracy», expecting Xamán happiest of secularist trend that «witness parliamentary debates future sharp differences due to the insistence of the Sharia Islamic parties in the formulation of the draft constitution of Kurdistan, and not compromising the Islamic identity of the Kurds, the Constitution means marginalizing the rights of minorities and other religions»,

It warned of the danger of «what is promoted in some quarters of the accusations against religious figures and secular parties, we do not absolutely reject religion because we know that our governor and adheres to the religion of Islam, but we are working on the separation of religion from the fear of abuse of power for religious purposes».

وStresses Islamic parties (15 seats) on the need to adopt Islamic law the basis for the materials and items Constitution Kurdistan decision put to a referendum and demanded that the Commission take charge of drafting the constitution in the Muslim majority and the Kurdish people's Islamic identity of the Iraqi Kurds.

Translated version of http://www.sotaliraq.com/

Gooooooooooooooood Morning Rolclub


"The More They Take, The More We Make"
"Stay the Course, its the difference between Winners and whiners"


Here are the numbers up through today June 5th. All dinars going in and out of the CBI have been accounted for in these calculations.


11.30 Trillion taken out and still the Party has not started


1. "0" Dinar rate change today, it was 1259, it is now 1260

2. A (net) worth of dinars, IQD - 439,193,215,000 pulled out of circulation from Tuesday May 29th thru 6/5/07.

3. 20 banks participating today

4. 158th auction since the beginning of CBI's reval plan

5. 248 days into the CBI's reval plan. (Eight Months)

6. 11,303,773,678,000 dinars pulled from circulation !!

6A. Conservative ESTIMATE of Dinars still in circulation or controlled by the CBI 5,696,226,322,000

7. "0" Dinars back into circulation today

8. 217 dinar change since Oct 1st (baseline was 1477) 14.759% increase in value of the dinar since beginning of reval plan (Approximatly Oct 1st).

9. 0 point reduction in the rate so far this week. Was at 1259 at the end of last week, 1259 so far this week.

10. 0 point drop in the month of June. Ended at 1260 in May, now stands at 1260
In January we saw a 2.49% drop in the rate.
In February we saw a .928% drop in the rate.
In March we saw a .546% drop in the rate.
In April we saw a .3142% drop in the rate[/SIZE]

Details of meetings with Maliki »Baath leaders« in Arbil

(Voice of Iraq) - 06-06-2007

Council seeks to resolve political differences Constitutional general amnesty
Baghdad Mazen's :

Baghdad prepares for multiple surprises in the coming days, it was revealed political sources told »homeland« The first of these surprises will be in solving the constitutional contract before the political council for national security, after the political blocs agreed to activate its role to solve the dilemmas facing working government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

And Tjsdia Therefore, the agenda included several points of compromise to find formulas to resolve differences in the constitutional amendments first, and then work on the evaluation of the initiative of national reconciliation, and to study the possibility of issuing a general amnesty and to identify covered and how to apply them, consult the Supreme Judiciary Council,

According to these sources Medhat Mahmoud participation of the President in some meetings of this Council in the coming days.

It also will discuss how to reach a new understanding of the participation of some wings of the Baath Party in the political process of the gate reconciliation conference hoped held during the month of July. The sources told »homeland« that Malki had met during his stay in Arbil over leadership of the Baath party from different wings.

The balloon in one of the leading organization of the Iraqi Baath Party, which includes among its leaders some of the famous names in the Baath Party, the Syrian wing, al-Maliki has met more than once.

The sources told »homeland« that Maliki affirmed during the meeting that there was no discrepancy between the return »Baathists« to the political process, as opposed to the insistence of leading Baathist hubs to meet the requirements of political pluralism, and

even change the name of the party »Baath Democratic Party«, which Maliki refused to approve it and saying that this decision was due to the House of Representatives,

but the Baathist leadership, according to the source link between participation in this wing reconciliation conference expected, and the issuance of a general amnesty includes a long list of Baathists, leading them in what is known as the National Islamic Front for the Iraqi resistance.

And sources close to the talks table to the second meeting with al-Maliki's leading wing Azza periodic stressed the importance of dealing with the new reality in its current form and not seeing the past, because it involved page in the history of Iraq, replied the officer in the high-former Republican Guard forces, This past foundations of the state of Iraq today, and the vision of the future without a past, and from the American occupation, I mean irrational solutions to the Iraqi crisis.

Both sides did not emerge from this meeting despite a Kurdish mediator which alleviated the debate, the result not of any agreement on continuing consultations to find solutions acceptable to the participation of Izzat al-wing Baathists in the reconciliation conference next.

The sources added that the lack of commitment Maliki any promises conclusive in these meetings, due to the knowledge that the trend Maliki sternum strongly rejects any return of the Baathists or political participation an even changed his name in the reconciliation conference next.
Kuwaiti homeland
Translated version of http://www.sotaliraq.com/