Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Iran warns over 'US weak points' in Iraq, Afghanistan

The new head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned the United States Tuesday that Tehran has identified its "weak points" in Iraq and Afghanistan and would launch a crushing response to any attack.

The comments by Mohammad Ali Jaafari, appointed head of the elite force by the supreme leader just 10 days ago, come amid mounting tensions between Tehran and Washington over Iran's controversial nuclear drive and its role in Iraq.

"The Revolutionary Guards have identified all the weak points of the enemy in Iraq and Afghanistan and based on this have consolidated the defensive capabilities of the country," General Jaafari said.

"And if the enemy wants to take any impudent action the Islamic republic will for sure give a decisive and teeth-breaking response," he said, according to state broadcasting.

Jaafari did not explicitly say that Iran would strike the US "weak points" if attacked but Tehran has always warned of a tough response to any aggression while insisting it would never initiate an attack.

General Rahim Yahya Safavi, Jaafari's predecessor and now special military advisor to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had warned last week that the United States did not appreciate how at risk its troops were.

"It can not evaluate the vulnerability of its 200,000 troops in the region since we have accurately identified all of their camps," said Safavi.

The tensions over the Iranian nuclear programme -- which the United States alleges is aimed at making nuclear weapons -- have been compounded by US accusations that Iran is behind attacks on US troops in Iraq.

The top US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, said on Monday that Iran was fighting a "proxy war" in Iraq through the covert operations unit of the Revolutionary Guards -- the Quds force

"It is increasingly apparent to both coalition and Iraqi leaders that Iran, through the use of the Quds force, seeks to turn the Iraqi special groups into a Hezbollah-like force to serve its interests and fight a proxy war against the Iraqi state and coalition forces in Iraq," Petraeus said.

Washington has never ruled out taking military action against Tehran and the war of words has intensified in recent weeks with President George W. Bush warning that Iran's atomic programme could lead to a "nuclear holocaust."

Tehran has an array of medium range missiles and claims that its longer-range Shahab-3 missile has a reach of 2,000 kilometres (1,200 miles) which would put Israel and US bases on the Arabian Peninsula within reach.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has dismissed the chance of any US attack against Iran but influential former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has warned of the dangers still posed by the United States.

Iran vehemently denies seeking nuclear weapons and also rejects charges it is interfering in Iraq, saying it fully supports the Baghdad government's drive to restore security in the war-torn country.

Iran warns over 'US weak points' in Iraq, Afghanistan - Yahoo! News UK

Iraq sees less need for foreign forces

Iraq's government on Tuesday welcomed long-awaited testimony to Congress by the U.S. commander in Iraq and said it would have less need for foreign forces to carry out combat operations "in the near future".

General David Petraeus recommended cutting U.S. troops by about 30,000 by next July, ending a so-called surge of forces but not fundamentally changing strategy in the unpopular war.

"The Iraqi government welcomes this report," national security adviser Mowaffaq al-Rubaie told a news conference.

"We expect in the near future that our need will be diminished for the multinational forces to conduct direct combat operations." Rubaie did not comment directly on Petraeus' recommendation to cut U.S. troop levels by 30,000.

In testimony to Congress in Washington on Monday, Petraeus suggested U.S. forces could fall to about 130,000 without hurting modest security improvements. That would return U.S. troop strength to roughly the same level it was before an increase ordered by President George W. Bush early this year.

Force reductions would continue after next summer, Petraeus said, and it would be premature to make recommendations now on the pace of such cuts.

Such an assessment could be made by March 2008, he said.

Some Iraqis welcomed the idea of a U.S. troop reduction, calling for a total withdrawal. "They are the reason behind all the things that have happened to us," said Raad Sabir, a retired teacher from the northern oil-producing city of Kirkuk.

But others worried that their own security forces were not ready to take over and that a reduction in U.S. troops would be an invitation for Shi'ite militias, Sunni Arab insurgents and al Qaeda fighters to resume attacks once they were gone.

Rubaie said all Iraqi army units would be trained and equipped by mid-2008. More than 80 percent of Iraq's army had the capability to take the lead in combat operations, he said.

"We have 500,000 soldiers and policemen, who have been given the best military training," Rubaie said.

"The Iraqi government's aim is to achieve a complete Iraqi security reliance as soon as possible. (But) we know that for some time we will continue to need the support of the coalition forces to assure regional security and stability."

Underlining their continued leading combat role, U.S. forces targeting an al Qaeda network in northwest Iraq killed eight suspected insurgents on Tuesday, the U.S. military said. U.S. troops killed another 15 insurgents around Baghdad.

KEY MOMENT IN WAR

Petraeus appeared at a congressional hearing regarded as a pivotal moment in the U.S. debate over the war, which Bush has vowed to pursue but which many Democrats, who control Congress, say must end.

Analysts said Petraeus' recommendation to bring some troops home by Christmas and more in 2008 could provide political cover for Republicans and dissuade them from abandoning Bush while blunting Democratic calls for more dramatic withdrawals.

The powerful political movement loyal to anti-American Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr dismissed the general's testimony and demanded a timetable for a full withdrawal.

"As long as U.S. troops are on our streets, Iraqis will bleed and pay the price for keeping the Americans safe in their own country," said Salah al-Ubaidi, a movement spokesman.

Ali al-Adeeb, a Shi'ite lawmaker who is close to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, said pulling out 30,000 U.S. troops would not have a major impact on security.

"The Americans have more than 160,000 troops in Iraq. This number (30,000) is not big," Adeeb told Reuters.

Petraeus and Baghdad Ambassador Ryan Crocker said they saw some progress in Iraq and defended Bush's decision to boost troop strength in a conflict that is in its fifth year and has killed more than 3,700 U.S. troops and tens of thousands of Iraqis.

Much of the criticism against Iraq's leaders has focused on their failure to pass laws regarded as vital to healing deep divisions between majority Shi'ites and minority Sunni Arabs.

Iraq sees less need for foreign forces - Yahoo! News UK

Petraeus hears criticism of U.S. Iraq strategy

Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, faced criticism from a Democratic presidential contender on Tuesday over America's war strategy.

Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden voiced his criticism at the start of a session of the U.S. Senate's foreign relations committee to hear testimony from Petraeus and the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker.

"The American people will not support an infinite war whose sole remaining purpose is to prevent the situation in Iraq from becoming worse than it is today," Biden said.

Petraeus outlined a plan to reduce the number of troops in Iraq by some 30,000 to around 130,000 by next summer, a return to the level before President George W. Bush ordered a surge of forces at the start of this year.

But Petraeus, testifying on Monday before committees of the House of Representatives, said he could not predict how quickly troop levels would fall beyond next summer and insisted his force should continue to protect the Iraqi population.

He rejected suggestions that his troops should switch to a mission focused on handing over duties to Iraqi forces and conducting counter-terrorism operations.

Biden said the surge strategy could not succeed as national Iraqi leaders were not committed to reconciliation between sectarian and ethnic groups.

"It's time to turn the corner," Biden said. "We should stop the surge and start bringing our troops home."

Petraeus hears criticism of U.S. Iraq strategy - Yahoo! News UK

Democrats grill Iraq war general

Democrats roasted Iraq commander General David Petraeus Tuesday, branding his troop surge strategy a failure, rejecting "rosy" forecasts of progress in the war and demanding a speedy US withdrawal.

Petraeus and US ambassador to Baghdad Ryan Crocker faced a barrage of complaints that the injection of 28,500 troops had failed in its prime aim -- to forge political reconciliation -- on a second day of testimony to Congress.

Some top Republicans joined the chorus of complaints at President George W. Bush's strategy, but others fought a fierce rearguard action, with Senator John McCain warning of the "terrible" consequences of defeat.

"We should stop the surge and start bringing our troops home," said senior Democratic Senator Joseph Biden, arguing the operation announced in January had failed to stop sectarian killing.

Carl Levin, another veteran Democrat, rejected Petraeus's claims that the surge was working as just the latest claim in a "litany of delusion" by the Bush administration on Iraq.

Crocker and Petraeus's appearance before tense hearings of the Senate Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees, came on the sixth anniversary of the September 11 attacks, a day of deep political significance.

It was part of a pivotal week for Iraq strategy, with Bush expected to report to Americans on the progress in the war in a televised address.

The White House argued in a statement that success in Iraq would be a "terrible blow" to US enemies in the 'war on terror' and extremists had to be battled there, rather than on US soil.

But Democratic presidential hopeful Senator Barack Obama, said it was wrong to hold a hearing on a day filled with echoes of the world's worst terror strike.

"It perpetuates this notion that, somehow, the original decision to go into Iraq was directly related to the attacks on 9/11," he said.

Petraeus insisted the surge was working, and said US forces could gradually be reduced from their current 168,000 strength, to pre-surge levels of around 130,000 by mid 2008.

But Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer accused the general of painting an overly optimistic picture.

"I ask you to take off your rosy glasses," she said. "We are sending our troops where they are not wanted, with no end in sight, in the middle of a civil war, in the middle of the mother of all mistakes."

Republican Chuck Hagel, a fierce critic of war strategy, had a similar complaint.

"Are we going to continue to invest American blood and treasure at the same rate as we are now? For what?"

De****e their anger, Senate Democrats still look set to fail in their bid to fracture Republican support and force Bush to change course.

Republican presidential hopeful Senator John McCain, a staunch defender of the surge, said: "the consequences of American defeat in Iraq will be terrible and longlasting."

"Iraq has become the central front of the global war on terror."
The ripples from Petraeus's testimony at a key moment in the war, continued to spread *********.

Petraeus said he would head to London to discuss the British military's handover of security in the southern city of Basra to Iraqi forces.

"The British did a very good handoff to a force that was trained and equipped and certified," he said. Several top senators have branded the British mission in Iraq a failure.

Britain Tuesday said its approach to Iraq would not be changed by Petraeus's upbeat testimony. France meanwhile said there was no military solution in Iraq and called for an eventual US withdrawal.

Crocker offered a sober assessment of the situation, repeating his contention that slow, upward progress was being made.

But his somber tone was in marked contrast to many of previous assessments of progress in the four-year war by the Bush administration.
"There will be no single moment at which we can claim victory," he said.

Petraeus also said he would be "hard pressed" next March to recommend an extension of the military surge in Iraq if there is no let-up in current levels of bloodshed on the ground.

He said the surge would effectively end by mid next year with withdrawals starting with reductions of marines this month and 4,000 more troops in December.

Military officials had previously acknowledged that continuing the surge after mid-2008 would be difficult because of the lack of available forces to keep troop levels so high.

Democrats grill Iraq war general - Yahoo! News UK

Sadrist bloc may withdraw from UIC – al-Sadr office

Baghdad, Sept 11, (VOI)- The Sadrist bloc, or Iraqis loyal to Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, may withdraw from the Shiite Unified Iraqi Coalition (UIC), the official spokesman for al-Sadr said on Tuesday.

Salah al-Ubeidi told reporters in the city of Najaf "members of the Sadrist bloc held a meeting on Tuesday to determine their position whether they will continue working within the UIC and to evaluate the government's performance in the past days."

"The Sadrist bloc may announce a decision to withdraw from the UIC unless the later tried to fulfill its promises he made. We decided to think carefully in this issue within the upcoming days," the spokesman also said.

The spokesman blamed the inefficiency of the Shiite bloc for that possible decision.

He criticized also the UIC's policy, underlining that certain parties are dominating it and its policies.

The Sadrist bloc, part of the Shiite UIC list, occupies 30 out of a total 275 seats in the Iraqi parliament.

Aswat Aliraq

Australian Forces to Remain in Iraq

Alexander Downer, the Australian Foreign Minister announced today that their forces will remain in Iraq for the present time, which came after the announcement of the American Forces in Iraq, David Petraeus, who recommended reducing US force levels in Iraq by about 30.000 troops by next summer.

Downer said to Kuna Agency that “the soldiers number and the withdrawal should be according to circumstances and not a scheduled date.”

PUKmedia :: English - Australian Forces to Remain in Iraq

Iraq and Iran’s Foreign Ministries Delegations Meet in Haji Omaran

An Iraqi foreign ministry delegation with its counterpart from Iranian foreign ministry held a meeting to discuss the border problem between Kurdistan region of Iraq and Iran.

Mr. Mohamed al-Bari, general director of border in Iraqi federal government, headed the Iraqi delegation including several senior Iraqi and KRG officials.

Kazim Frutan, head of committee of identifying borders, headed the Iranian delegation which included three other members from the Iranian foreign ministry.

The meeting finished without any results, but they decided to go on meeting.

Worth mentioning recently both sides held another meeting about the same issue, without reaching to any outcome.

PUKmedia :: English - Iraq and Iran’s Foreign Ministries Delegations Meet in Haji Omaran

President Talabani Discuses the Political Developments with the Iraqi Communist Party

President Talabani received a high delegation from the Iraqi communist party (ICP) in his office in Baghdad today. His Excellency appreciated the patriotic stands of Iraqi communist party in combating suppression and dictatorship and their role in the current Iraqi arena. The delegation consisted of several ICP politburo members including Mr. Mudffid al-Jazaery, Dr Ezet Abu Tyman, Dr. Ihsan Akif and Jasim al-Hilfi.

The ongoing political process in Iraq and the significance of the currant political move for developing an Iraqi wide viewpoint to overstep sectarian and narrow interests and rescue the country from the current problems, were discussed during the meeting.

President Talabani reassured on the need for a real participation of all the Iraqi sides in the mission of rebuilding the new Iraq and without marginalizing any sect or any true side.

President Talabani said: “We are now in utmost need for the activation of all the efforts and activities for dealing with the controversial issues and establishing peace and stability in the country and succeeding the unique democratic political process in Iraq.

The ICP delegation expressed their support for the quadruple agreement among PUK, KDP, Iraqi Islamic Daawa party and the Iraqi Islamic supreme council and the quintuple statement of the active and effective forces in the Iraqi arena.

PUKmedia :: English - President Talabani Discuses the Political Developments with the Iraqi Communist Party

Alawi Appreciates President Talabani’s Stands

Dr. Ayad Alawi, head of the Iraqi National Accord, send a letter to President Talabani concerning his Excellency’s statements, saying that he would not sign the execution order of sultan Hashim, the Iraqi ex-defense minister.

Dr. Ayad Alawi expressed his support for his Excellency’s stand.
“We are in situation that we must differentiate between criminals and innocents.” the letter quoted to say.

PUKmedia :: English - Alawi Appreciates President Talabani’s Stands

Iraq's oil riches still languish

Production is up -- but it's still stymied by insurgent attacks and a stalled law that would open the country up to international oil companies.

Vienna -- While officials from some of the world's biggest oil producers holed up in private meetings in Vienna Monday night, to decide whether to increase Opec's oil production, Iraq's Oil Minister Hussain Al-Shahristani retreated to his hotel suite, and watched television instead. Specifically, he tuned into the broadcast of Gen. Petraeus's testimony in Washington about the war.

Alone among the 12 OPEC oil ministers meeting in Vienna this week, Shahristani presides over an Iraqui oil industry that is battling to operate under almost impossible conditions.

Hundreds of thousands of barrels a day are lost to smuggling, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office. Insurgents have launched hundreds of hit-and-run attacks on oil pipelines. Countless oil engineers have fled the country. And foreign contractors are under continual threat of kidnapping or death.


OPEC agrees to boost oil output

But sitting in his suite near midnight on Monday, Shahristani said he agreed with Petraeus's assessment that the conflict in Iraq appeared to be easing off. "There's an awakening of the Sunni Arab tribes in a number of insurgency hotbeds," he said. "American troops can gradually begin returning home."

Shahristani said his ministry has recruited armed Sunni tribesman in recent weeks to guard oil facilities, which have endured hundreds of attacks by insurgents since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Similar to U.S. Army efforts in insurgent-heavy Al-Anbar province, Iraq's oil officials have tapped into groups which have spent years attacking oil facilities. "We managed to get them to volunteer some of their young men to join," he says.

In late August, Iraq began exporting about 300,000 barrels a day to the oil terminal in Ceyhan, Turkey, through a northern pipeline which had been shut since an insurgent attack last year, he said. "The current crude production is about 2.4 million barrels per day," Shahristani said. "That is the highest it has been since the fall of the regime" nearly four and a half years ago.

That figure is exaggerated, according to some analysts. The Washington-based oil consultancy PFC Energy estimates Iraq's oil output at about 1.9 million, and predicts that level will hold through 2008, because of enduring violence and war damage. That estimate includes about 250,000 barrels a day from the oil-rich northern city of Kirkuk, but only about 100,000 barrels a day can safely make it through the northern pipelines to Turkey, according to David Kirsch of PFC, in Vienna. Production has plummeted since pre-war highs of about 3.8 million barrels a day.


Why oil won't hit $100

"Iraq needs to sort out security problems and repair oil facilities," said Kirsch.

At 65, Shahristani has survived plenty of turmoil himself. Born in the holy Shiite city of Karbala, he was educated in London and Toronto, and became one of Saddam Hussein's key nuclear physicists, and an advisor to the country's Atomic Energy Organization.

There he began to criticize Saddam's quest for nuclear weapons, and was jailed for 12 years at age 37 in the notorious Abu Ghraib prison. Now he is a key member of parliament for the United Iraqi Alliance, a powerful Shiite coalition.

Yet de****e his heavyweight credibility, Shahristani has been unable to persuade Iraq's divided politicians to vote in a new national oil law. The draft law was approved last February by Iraq's cabinet, and aims to open Iraq's mammoth oil riches to international companies after decades of war and Western sanctions.

Under the law, companies will be able to sign 10-year exploration deals and 20-year production agreements in partnership with the state-run oil company. Some political parties accuse the government of trying to sell off national assets to foreign corporations. And Kurdistan's powerful regional government says it fears Baghdad will clamp down on its autonomy.


Big U.S. oil: Tepid on Libya

After more than a year of wrangling among politicians, Kurdistan last month passed its own hydrocarbon law in the regional parliament. Last weekend Kurdish officials signed an exploration deal with Dallas-based Hunt Oil Co., a private independent company.

It was the sixth deal signed in Kurdistan since the war, without Baghdad's involvement, and the first with a U.S. company. Shahristani says "almost all the international oil companies" are waiting to start developing Iraq's huge oil fields, but are waiting for a new federal oil law.

To Shahristani and his colleagues in Baghdad, the Kurds' deal with Hunt Oil was bad news -- a sign that Kurdistan can perhaps produce oil without their involvement. Shahristani said the Kurdish oil contracts were illegal.

"Any contract that is signed without the approval of the federal government has no standing," he said, sitting in his hotel room on Monday night. "We are not approving any of those contracts."

But until Iraq's new oil law passes its parliament, it might be the only new oil contracts Iraq sees for a while.

Iraq's oil riches remain largely untapped - Sep. 11, 2007