Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

100,000 U.S. troops could leave soon: Iraq President

At least 100,000 U.S. troops could return home from Iraq by the end of 2008, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said in an interview aired on Sunday, although he proposed that several American military bases stay in Iraq.

Speaking on CNN television, Talabani envisioned faster U.S. troop reductions than U.S. commanders have discussed in public. But he stressed that the pace of withdrawal was up to those commanders and did not explain why he foresaw a faster pullout.

"I think it is possible at the end of the next year that a big part of the American Army will be back here," said Talabani, who gave the interview during a trip to the United States. "More than 100,000 (troops) can be back by the end of the next year."

But Talabani, a Kurd and former guerrilla leader who fought Saddam Hussein, said he was not pushing for an independent Kurdistan in Iraq's North, because neighboring countries would never agree to it.

He also expressed confidence in Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, an Arab from the Shi'ite Muslim majority, saying Maliki was not personally corrupt de****e allegations of widespread corruption in his government. "He is a clean man," Talabani said.

The United States currently has about 165,000 troops in Iraq. Under pressure from opposition Democrats and some senior Republicans for big cuts in troops, President George W. Bush last month approved a plan from his top commander in Iraq to gradually reduce the U.S. force by 20,000 to 30,000 by mid-2008.

Pentagon chief Robert Gates says he hopes for cuts of around 20,000 more troops by January 2009, when the next president will take office. But even if that happens, the pullouts would add up to only about half the number Talabani is saying could leave in the same period of time.

Talabani said that the United States could start significant reductions of its forces in Iraq next spring. He proposed three U.S. military bases remain after most of the Americans are gone -- in the north, south and middle of Iraq.

U.S. BASES "FOR A WHILE"

Small numbers of U.S. soldiers would stay behind "for training and for the stability of Iraq, and preventing our neighbors from interfering" in Iraq's affairs, he said.
Talabani declined to describe these as permanent bases, saying only that they should stay "for a while."

The Bush administration denies seeking permanent bases in Iraq. But Gates has spoken of having a reduced presence there for a "prolonged" period of time, as the United States has had for decades in Korea and Germany.

Talabani said it was in Kurdish interests to be part of a democratic, federal Iraq -- not an independent Kurdish state, which would be landlocked and face hostility from neighbors with Kurdish minorities. "There is no possibility of having independent Kurdistan for many reasons," he said.

"Let us imagine that Kurdistan declares independence. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, they then send arms to fight that, but close the border, how we can leave? ... This is impossible," he said. The northern Kurdish region is home to about 5 million of Iraq's 26 million people.

Talabani favored a resolution passed recently by the U.S. Senate calling for a weak central government in Baghdad and strong regional governments. The resolution provoked a storm of protest from many other Iraqi politicians, including Maliki.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...1-ArticlePage2

Kurdish leaders call for conference on federalism

Iraq's Kurdistan presidency on Friday called upon Iraqi political parties to attend an expanded conference in Arbil to discuss the federal system, criticizing the politicians' rejection of the U.S. Senate unbinding resolution on dividing Iraq.

"We call upon all Iraqi parties' representatives to attend an expanded conference in the region's capital Arbil, to discuss all issues related to building the federal system," Kurdistan region presidency said in a statement received by the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).
The statement, which did not set a date for the proposed conference, said "invitation will be extended to all Iraqi political parties to attend it."

Meanwhile, the statement criticized the voices rejecting the U.S. Senate unbinding resolution on federally dividing Iraq, noting that those rejected the resolution "either they did not read it carefully or they expressed their chauvinistic thought and faith in the centralized system return into the country."

The U.S. Senate resolution, the statement said, "comes in harmony with the Iraqi constitution according to which the political process was established in the country."

Ten days ago, the U.S. Senate approved, with 75 votes for and 23 against, a "non-binding" draft resolution envisaging the division of Iraq into three Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni entities, with a federal government in Baghdad undertaking border security and oil proceed management.

Initiators of the draft said it was "the only solution" to halt violence sweeping the country.

The plan was opposed by Iraqi officials, parties and religious clerics but was welcomed by the Kurdish leaders.

Kurds now enjoy an autonomous governance of their region that includes three provinces in northern Iraq.

Kurdish leaders call for conference on federalism | Iraq Updates

Kirkuk's destiny sparks controversy in legislative, executive circles

Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution pertaining to the status of oil-rich Kirkuk has long been a prominent subject of discussion in Iraqi political circles, with the supreme committee entrusted with its implementation saying debate will not change basic paragraphs in the article.

Aalia Nasif, the Constitutional Amendments Committee's rapporteur, accused the Kurdistan Coalition (KC) of "ignoring" the committee and parliamentary discussions on the topic. Speaking to the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI), Nasif said, "Article 140 is one of the most contentious subjects of discussion in political circles. It is for this reason that it should be handled thoroughly by the committee."

Nasif, who is also a member of the Iraqi National Slate (INL) with 22 seats in the 275-member parliament, said that de****e its alliance with the Kurdish bloc, the Shiite Unified Iraqi Coalition (UIC) has a different perspective on the implementation of the article. "The INL and the Sunni Iraqi Accordance Front (IAF) believe that it should be postponed," she noted.

Slamming the Kurdish alliance for "working apart from the committee and other blocs," Nasif said that the committee is still considering a package of constitutional amendments that she said will be introduced in the near future.

Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution is related to the normalization of the situation in Kirkuk, an important and mixed city of Kurds, Turkmen, Christians and Arabs. Kurds seek to include the city in the autonomous Iraq's Kurdistan region, while Sunni Arabs, Turkmen and Shiite Arabs oppose the incorporation. The article currently stipulates that all Arabs in Kirkuk be returned to their original locations in southern and central Iraqi areas, and formerly displaced residents returned to Kirkuk, 250 km northeast of Baghdad.

A referendum, provided for in the Iraqi constitution, was scheduled to be held by the end of the current year on including the city into the Kurdistan region.

An Iraqi parliament vote in early September extended the work of the concerned committee until the end of 2007, delaying the referendum on Kirkuk's status that was expected by the end of 2007.

Seeing no contradiction between the mission of the amendments'' committee and the implementation of the article, Mahmoud Othman, a veteran politician and a member of the Kurdish coalition, said that his bloc does not mind putting off the referendum for "legal, not political reasons."

"Some bodies are attempting to postpone the referendum for political reasons. We believe this is illogical. We want to draw Kurdistan's administrative borders," Othman indicated.

Saleh al-Motlak, the leader of the Sunni National Dialogue Front (NDF) which has 11 seats in the Iraqi parliament, described article 140 as a "time bomb that should be included in the proposed constitutional amendments."

"We seek an amendment that is acceptable to Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen," he added.

Meanwhile, Raed Fahmi, the head of the supreme committee concerned with the implementation of the article, said that the majority of parliamentary blocs had generally agreed on the article. "We are working in accordance with an article in the Iraqi constitution, de****e all heated controversy surrounding it.

Debate within the Constitutional Amendments Committee is over the timing of the implementation of the article, not its cancellation," Fahmi explained.

Kirkuk's destiny sparks controversy in legislative, executive circles | Iraq Updates

Higher demand for dollar, exchange rate still stable

Demand for the dollar was higher in the Iraqi Central Bank’s auction on Sunday, reaching $66.055 million compared to $62.615 million on Thursday.

In its daily statement, the bank said it had covered all bids, including $8.445 million in cash and $57.610 in foreign transfers, at an exchange rate of 1,233 dinars per dollar, unchanged for the fourth consecutive session.

None of the 15 banks that participated in Sunday's session offered to sell dollars.

In statements to the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI), Ali al-Yasseri, a trader, said that the commercial revival of the local market with the Muslim Eid al-Futr be celebrated next week encouraged traders to buy more dollars in today's auction session.

The Iraqi Central Bank runs a daily auction from Sunday to Thursday.

Higher demand for dollar, exchange rate still stable | Iraq Updates

Iran reopens one border crossing with Kurdistan-Spokesman

The spokesman for Iraq's Kurdistan government said Iranian authorities on Sunday afternoon reopened one border crossing with Kurdistan, while others crossings' reopening was put off till Monday for "technical reasons."
"Brwiskhan crossing on the Iranian-Iraqi borders was reopened, today at 3:00 pm," Jamal Abdullah told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).

The spokesman added "reopening of two more crossings was put off till Monday for technical reasons."

Iran announced on Saturday that border crossings with Iraq's Kurdistan region would be reopened on Sunday after two weeks' closure in protest against the U.S. arrest of an Iranian trade delegation member in Sulaimaniya.

On Thursday a senior Kurdish delegation headed to Tehran to convince Iranian government to reopen the crossings on the borders between Iran and Kurdistan region.

Iran reopens one border crossing with Kurdistan-Spokesman | Iraq Updates

Czechs plan to withdraw troops from Iraq

The foreign minister of the Czech Republic says his ministry is working on a plan for the gradual withdrawal of his country's 100 troops from Iraq.

The Czech troops are deployed in southern Iraq as guards at a British base. Three other servicemen deployed in Baghdad as part of a NATO mission training Iraqi forces are expected to remain.

Speaking on Czech public television, Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg did not give any details on the timing of the pullout.

He said the Czech Republic still needed to consult with its allies in Iraq.

The troops are deployed under a mandate approved by the parliament that expires at the end of the year.

Czechs plan to withdraw troops from Iraq

Almost half of British troops could be out of Iraq by June

British troop numbers in Iraq could be almost halved by June, Gordon Brown is expected to tell MPs.

After the political backlash over his claim last week that 1,000 soldiers would be 'home for Christmas', the Prime Minister will try to head off further criticism by setting out more detailed plans.

These will promise dramatic falls in force levels next summer - provided the fragile security in Basra does not collapse.

The existing force of 5,300 troop will be reduced to around 3,000 or even fewer in the next rotation of British Army units planned for May and June 2008, Mr Brown is set to tell the Commons.

The announcement will be carefully-worded, with caveats linking further withdrawal to the state of security in Basra in the coming months.

But the pledge remains a political gamble, as any failure to meet the timetable due to renewed violence in Basra risks being seen as a major setback in foreign policy.

The Premier will avoid any mention of Afghanistan, according to sources, de****e the fact that troops pulling out of Iraq are likely to find themselves sent to bolster the fight against the Taliban.

Mr Brown's statement also risks reopening the rift with Washington over the UK's future role in Iraq.

Senior U.S. military figures are frustrated by British military withdrawals and by what many see as the UK's loss of control in Basra.

The last remaining British troops inside the city pulled out last month and all units are now based at the heavily-defended airport a few miles away.
They are maintaining what the Ministry of Defence calls an 'overwatch' role - ready to surge back into the city if local Iraqi police and army units lose control.

Levels of violence have fallen, although the airport base remains under regular attack from insurgents with mortars and rockets.

Serious doubts remain over the effectiveness and the loyalty of the Iraq police in the city.

With the situation still fragile, British commanders know they must retain enough troops to be able to defend themselves, or even to stage a 50-mile fighting withdrawal to the Kuwaiti border in extreme circumstances.

For that reason any reduction taking the force to as few as 3,000 personnel will be possible only if security improves in the coming months.
Mr Brown's statement in the Commons will coincide with a march past Parliament by the Stop The War Coalition.

Almost half of British troops could be out of Iraq by June| News | This is London&

Thanks seaview for all your digging

Petraeus Puts Heat on Iran Over Iraq Violence
EAST OF BAQUBA

The U.S. military commander in Iraq stepped up accusations over the weekend that Iran was stoking violence in Iraq and said Tehran's ambassador to Baghdad was a member of the Revolutionary Guards Qods force.

Washington accuses the force, the elite unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, of inciting bloodshed in Iraq and of training and equipping militias who have attacked U.S. troops.

General David Petraeus, speaking at a U.S. military base about 30 km (20 miles) from the Iranian border on Saturday, said Iran was giving advanced weaponry to militias in Iraq.

"They are responsible for providing the weapons, the training, the funding and in some cases the direction for operations that have indeed killed U.S. soldiers," Petraeus told a small group of reporters when asked if the Iranian government was responsible for killing U.S. troops.

"There is no question about the connection between Iran and these components, (the) attacks that have killed our soldiers."

Petraeus did not say how he knew Iran's ambassador to Baghdad, Hassan Kazemi-Qomi, was a member of the Qods force.

"The ambassador is a Qods force member," said Petraeus, before appearing to suggest that Kazemi-Qomi was not under the U.S. military spotlight because he was a diplomat.

"Now he has diplomatic immunity and therefore he is obviously not subject (to scrutiny). He is acting as a diplomat."

The Iranian embassy in Baghdad had no immediate comment.

Kazemi-Qomi has twice met U.S. ambassador Ryan Crocker in Baghdad this year for landmark talks on ways to stabilize Iraq. The discussions have made little headway, with both sides accusing each other over the violence in the country.

The Qods force is a special unit of the Revolutionary Guard Corps. There are varying estimates of its strength but it is in charge of Tehran's support for groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories.

Iran's military acknowledges the existence of the Qods force, although it tends not to give details of its role.

Tehran routinely denies U.S. accusations about its role in Iraq's violence, as well as Western allegations its nuclear programme is aimed at developing atomic weapons.

President George W. Bush has said he is committed to diplomacy to resolve the dispute over Iran's nuclear programme but he has not ruled out taking military action.

But Petraeus said he had no doubts about the Qods force.
"There should be no question about the malign, lethal involvement and activities of the Qods force in this country," he said.

Petraeus listed the type of weapons he said Iran was supplying to militias in Iraq.

He said this comprised advanced rocket-propelled grenades, shoulder-fired "Stinger-like" air defense missiles and 240mm rockets. This was in addition to components used to make explosively formed projectiles (EFPs), a particularly deadly roadside bomb that has killed hundreds of U.S. troops in Iraq.

Petraeus also suggested there was an Iranian link in the assassination of two provincial governors in southern Iraq in August. Both were killed by roadside bombs.

"They are implicated in the assassination of some governors in the southern provinces," said Petraeus.

Asked to be more specific, he said one case "was clearly an explosively formed projectile."

"They only come from Iran and they are only used by militias so it's a sort of a signature trademark of militia extremists. The other case the suspicion is the same, we just don't have the same quality of forensics."
Asked if there was intelligence directly linking Iran to the two bomb attacks, he said: "I would not comment on this."

Petraeus Puts Heat on Iran Over Iraq Violence | Iraq Updates

Taking the lead on Iraqi oil

This August, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq passed an oil and gas law to regulate the oil sector in our region. So far, we have signed eight production-sharing contracts with international oil and gas companies. We expect to sign another two in the near future.

We were deeply disappointed by the negative reaction of several officials in Baghdad to these contracts. In the last several months it has become clear to us that many in the Iraqi Oil Ministry are locked in a time warp dating back to the regime of Saddam Hussein, in which Baghdad holds tight control of all the resources of Iraq and uses these resources to create obeisance and loyalty to the centre.

The KRG production sharing contracts are fully consistent with the Iraqi Constitution, which gives the regions of Iraq substantial control over natural resources. The contracts are also fully consistent with the draft Iraqi oil law that was agreed to this March, but has yet to be passed by the Iraqi National Assembly. The Kurdistan region's oil law, passed in August by our parliament, is 100% faithful to the agreed draft of the Iraqi law, and includes provisions for the KRG to share its oil revenue with the rest of Iraq in the same 83%-17% ratio. If we had intended to "go it alone," why would we ever consider passing a law which requires us to give 83% of the revenues to the rest of Iraq? We waited five months for the Iraqi Assembly to pass the agreed draft - they have not acted, and there is no sign that they will act anytime soon. We decided to "lead from the front."

The Bush administration and Congress have been pressing the government in Baghdad to move ahead on a fair, transparent and efficient oil law. So have we. Neither of us have had any success. Thus, we have chosen to pass in our own assembly the very same law that was agreed to by all parties in March of this year.

We hope our friends and supporters in the US will understand that this is not an attempt to usurp the nation's oil resources, but rather our best effort to move the process forward, leading by example to make these valuable resources work for the people of Iraq. The resources that can ease the suffering of the people of Iraq lie beneath our feet.

The Kurdistan Region has achieved great things since the liberation of 2003. We are proud to be described as the model for the rest of Iraq: tolerant, democratic, peaceful and working toward economic prosperity. We have been given a chance to build a bright future after decades of oppression and violence. Our political system, our judicial system, our physical infrastructure and our educational system all are in great need of modernisation, but we will persevere with the help of our friends and by the fruits of our labour.

In 2003, we chose voluntarily and openly to remain part of Iraq, and we will continue to do so. But does this mean that we have to be held back by the chaos and bloodshed that dominate the rest of the country? Must we sit idly by, waiting for Iraqi politicians to waste months debating oil legislation that has already been agreed upon by the major parties?

We have tried our best to be a loyal ally of the US. We have supported nearly every major initiative and decision that the US has sought in Iraq - sometimes contrary to what we consider to be in our best interests. We will continue to do so because we believe that there is no alternative to maintaining the US presence in Iraq. We want the US to remain, and we need American help. In return for our loyalty we ask understanding. We are not a "rogue province" seeking an early escape from the chaos that has become Iraq. We are a people and a region that have seen nothing but death, destruction and deprivation from Baghdad over the decades. Does it surprise anyone that we harbour deep suspicions about becoming reliant on the capital that has brought us such misery for so many years?

In the past, oil in the Kurdistan Region has been more of a curse than a blessing. The people have never benefited from our natural resources. Successive governments in Iraq have deliberately left our oil in the ground in an effort to keep our people poor and to deny our aspirations for a better way of life. Now, after so much suffering, we have a chance to turn this curse into a blessing. And we are asked to wait while the Iraqi parliament takes its vacation, and then considers new ways to manage our resources.

The answer is found in the principles of the Iraqi Constitution, the US Constitution and many others around the world - federalism. This is not just a concept to us. Federalism means that we have the liberty to develop our resources under the umbrella, but not the central control, of Iraq. It means that as 17% of the population we will receive 17% of the wealth, and that we will accordingly share 83% of our wealth with the rest of the population.

We want peace and prosperity for the rest of Iraq as well. We will contribute our fair share and more to that goal. But we cannot be asked to sit by and postpone our aspirations for prosperity in pursuit of a vision of a centralised Iraq that long ago passed from reality. We are trying to lead by example in all that we do. Our oil law, and the contracts we have signed, are nothing more than that.

Mr. Barzani is the prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq.

Taking the lead on Iraqi oil | Iraq Updates