Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Iraq wants Blackwater to pay $136 mln compensation

The Iraqi government wants U.S. security firm Blackwater to pay $8 million in compensation to each of the families of 17 people killed in a shooting, a senior government source said on Tuesday.

The source said the figure was roughly in line with compensation paid by the Libyan government to the families of the 270 people killed in the 1988 Lockerbie airline bombing over Scotland.

"We want them to pay $8 million for each family," the source told Reuters. "The same level as the compensation for the Lockerbie victims."
Blackwater had been told of the demand, the source said. It was unclear what the private American firm's response was.

Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said on Sunday an investigation set up by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had found Blackwater "deliberately killed" the 17 people in the September 16 shooting in western Baghdad.

Blackwater has said its guards responded lawfully to a hostile threat against a U.S. State Department convoy it was guarding, but Dabbagh said the investigation had also found there was no evidence they had come under fire.

The incident caused outraged among Iraqis who see security contractors like Blackwater as private armies which act with impunity.
Blackwater employs about 1,000 people in Iraq. Its founder, former U.S. Navy SEAL Erik Prince, told a Congressional hearing last week that his men had come under small-arms fire and "returned fire at threatening targets".

U.S. and Iraqi officials working on a joint committee have also begun investigating the shooting.

A larger U.S. inquiry into the operations of private contractors in Iraq is also under way, while U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has ordered tighter controls on Blackwater.

The State Department will also send diplomatic security agents to accompany each convoy protected by Blackwater guards.
A Libyan intelligence agent was found guilty in 2001 of the bombing of a Pan Am flight over Lockerbie, which killed 270 people including 189 Americans.

In March 2003, Libya reached a political settlement with the United States and Britain to accept civil responsibility for the bombing, with Libya agreeing to pay about $2.7 billion in total compensation.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...1-ArticlePage2

Opinion Piece -

The way ahead: US and Iraq's oil economy
Once most US troops leave Iraq, Iran will fill the vacuum and would control the Iraqi government, writes Alok Ray.

The death toll of US soldiers in Iraq is mounting everyday and no victory of whatever kind is in sight. As a result, more and more Americans are questioning the wisdom of continuing the US military involvement in Iraq. By now, many of them also realise that the war started on the basis of a bunch of lies – the so-called Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) were never there and Iraq was not involved in any kind of terrorist activity against the US. Though, paradoxically, now that is happening after the US invasion of Iraq. These truths are being brought home by the media before an increasing number of Americans.

General Petraeus, the current US army chief in Iraq, recently presented evidence before the US Congress to show some improvement after the infusion of more American troops into Iraq in February 2007. He tried to show that the number of deaths due to sectarian violence in Iraq has come down, terrorist incidents are occurring less in Baghdad. In addition, ordinary Iraqis are getting fed up with the trouble created by foreign al-Qaeda terrorists and are cooperating more with Americans and local administration.

At the same time, the General and the US ambassador in Iraq both concede that the level of violence, though less than before, is still alarmingly high. They also made it clear that victory is by no means certain. It is only in the realm of possibilities – which, of course, is not saying much.

The sceptics are even questioning the significance of the statistics presented. They argue that sectarian violence has come down because millions of Iraqis have either left the country or moved to safer areas where their own people are in the majority. Further, though the violence has come down in Baghdad, it has increased in other areas. This is because of the infusion of more US troops in Baghdad. It follows that as soon as US troops withdraw, sectarian violence on a much bigger scale would erupt. some leaders of warring groups of Shias, Sunnis and Kurds, there is no real progress towards political reconciliation and an unified national government at the centre. Every group wants to have an assured share of the oil revenue and a role in administration which others are not willing to give.

Basically, there are three possible models for the future. A strong centralised Iraq, a loose federation of areas ruled by the three groups or a breakup of the country into a number of independent states. But, then, as one commentator put it: “US has already killed the only person who could make the first model work, namely Sadam Hussein.” It is difficult to predict whether the country would eventually settle for the second or the third alternative after a protracted civil war which would definitely be more violent and wide spread after the US troops leave.

The final outcome would also depend on two factors – how far Iran would go in supporting the Shia majority in Iraq and the form in which US military would be present in Iraq even after a major troop withdrawal takes place following a possible victory of the Democratic candidate in the US Presidential election next year.
By this time, several influential commentators in US have gone on record to suggest that the Iraq war is basically a war for oil and not against terrorism. The latest to join the rank is Alan Greenspan, the former Governor of Federal Reserve, in his most recent book. From that perspective, Iran is now the number one enemy of US, not al-Qaeda. Many observers in US feel that once most US troops leave Iraq, Iran will fill the vacuum and would control the Iraqi government.

If so, then Iran would have a dominant influence in deciding the price of oil and who would get the lucrative oil contracts in these oil-rich areas. US-aligned Saudi regime is not very stable either and its character may change as a result of pressures from both fundamentalist forces and democratic nationalists. An Islamic fundamentalist movement is also gaining ground in Egypt which has so far been more favourably inclined towards US and Israel than many other Arab states. So, US may lose much of its control over Arab oil in the coming years.

Some analysts are advising the US government to prepare for this eventuality by imposing a high tax on oil right now. This would reduce the US demand for oil and its dependence on imported oil, while at the same time lowering the level of carbon pollution and global warming. It would also increase the profitability of alternative energy sources and encourage the innovation of new energy-saving technologies and products. But all these would hurt the standard of living of Americans dependent on cheap oil. It is unlikely that US politicians would go for this unpopular decision and risk political hara-kiri, unless they are forced by circumstances as in the early 70’s when OPEC hiked the price of oil fourfold at one go.

In the mean time, as a strategic move, the US administration may undermine the present democratically elected government in Iraq if it gets more aligned with Iran. It may even covertly support the insurgents against the central government by providing them arms and finance which may lead to an eventual breakup of the country if it serves the US oil interest.

(The author is currently a Visiting Professor of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, USA)

Deccan Herald - The way ahead: US and Iraq's oil economy

US warns Turkey against raids into Iraq

Washington - The United States on Tuesday warned Turkey not to conduct raids in Iraq to retaliate for a deadly attack by Kurdish rebels.

Ankara has said it will consider cross-border incursions to respond to the ambush and killing of 13 Turkish soldiers in Turkey on Monday by the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK).

The United States urged Turkey to cooperate with the Iraqi government to halt attacks by the PKK, which has bases in northern Iraq.

'In our view, it is not going to lead to a long-term, durable solution to have significant incursions from Turkey into Iraq,' US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with his top officials Tuesday to discuss options for responding to the long standing threat posed by the PKK.

The Turkish media reported that the military has been shelling targets in Iraq.

The Turkish military has been seeking permission to go into Iraq for months to destroy PKK bases. Monday's attack has fuelled opposition parties' demands to support the more aggressive move.

The United States and Baghdad worry incursions could destabilize one of Iraq's safest regions that largely consists of Kurds.

The Iraqi and Turkish governments signed an agreement last week to cooperate on countering the PKK, but Baghdad rejected Turkish demands to allow the use of its military in Iraq.

The PKK launched its violent campaign for independence of autonomy from Turkey in the 1980s.

US warns Turkey against raids into Iraq - Middle East

Iraq did not call for compensation from Blackwater - spokesman

Baghdad - The Iraqi Government did not release any statements calling for compensations from Blackwater, the US security company, Iraqi Government spokesman Ali al-Dabagh said Tuesday.

'The government's position is still the same and any news about compensations is not true,' al-Dabagh told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.

On September 16, personnel working for Blackwater returned fire after an alleged ambush on their convoy, killing 11. Those killed were 'innocent civilians,' according to the government.

Iraqi media had earlier reported, citing an Iraqi government report, that Iraq demanded that Blackwater should pay every victim's family as much as 8 million US dollars in compensation.

The report also asked the US to have no connection with Blackwater security company for six months. According to the report, since Blackwater took over security for US diplomats in Iraqi in 2003, its guards have killed 38 Iraqis and wounded about 50 in shootings.

It also said Blackwater's licence to operate in Iraq had expired in 2006, which means it had no immunity from prosecution under the laws imposed by the US in Iraq after the 2003 invasion.

Both the US embassy in Iraq and the Iraqi government launched separate investigations into the incident to determine whether the Blackwater team reacted improperly. The shootings also raised questions about the role of private firms that provide security for US embassy and Iraqi government officials.

Baghdad vowed on Sunday to prosecute the guards responsible for the attacks, after a special investigative committee assigned by the Iraqi government to probe the matter concluded that the security personnel had not been provoked.

The committee deemed the shooting 'a deliberate crime' and recommended that the guards be brought to justice and be tried under Iraqi law.

Al-Dabagh had told reporters on Sunday evening that Blackwater was accused of violating the rights of the Iraqi people, and that the investigation had shown that the Blackwater convoy 'did not come under fire, neither direct nor indirect, and it was not hit even by a stone.'

The Washington Post had reported earlier that US military reports from the scene bolster Iraqi allegations that the private security guards overreacted.

A senior US military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the US newspaper that Blackwater's reaction was 'obviously excessive, it was obviously wrong.'

'The civilians that were fired upon, they didn't have any weapons to fire back at them. And none of the (Iraqi police) or any of the local security forces fired back at them,' he said.

Last Friday, reports said that US government security agents would begin accompanying private armed guards that protect US diplomatic convoys.
The announcement was considered a first step by the US to tighten the supervision of companies such as Blackwater.

Iraq did not call for compensation from Blackwater - spokesman - Middle East

Iraq Stock Exchange index up by 0.102%

Baghdad, Oct 9, (VOI) – The index of Iraq's Stock Exchange (ISX) increased by 0.102% on Tuesday, closing at 38.139 points.

A statement published on the ISX Web site recorded a trading volume of more than 774 million shares worth over 1.081 billion Iraqi dinars (871,000 U.S. dollars) through the implementation of 301 contracts.

33 companies were traded, and 21 companies did not participate on the trading floor because of their General Assembly meeting during which they decided to increase their capital.

Non-Iraqi investors participated in Tuesday's session with two contracts in the fields of banking and services, with more than 15 million shares worth over 33 million dinars.

Iraqi Middle East Investment Bank and Mamoura Realestate Investment were the companies traded by non-Iraqi investors.

Shares of 33 joint stock companies, including 14 banks, one investment, two services companies, 13 industrial companies, one hotel company, and two agriculture companies were traded in the session. With regards to the traded banking companies, there was a 1.8% increase in the index of Bank of Baghdad, while the index of Credit Bank of Iraq and North Bank dropped by 1.3 % and 1.2%. The price index of eleven banks maintained a consistent rate with the previous session.

The bank sector index closed at 37.130 points, the same as the previous session.

The industry sector index, where six companies traded, closed at 11.814 points, 0.373% higher than the previous session.

The statement concluded that 33 companies were traded in Tuesday's session out of 93 companies registered in Iraq's Stock Exchange, of which eight indexes went up, seven dropped, and 18 maintained their previous price.

Aswat Aliraq

Turkey Prepares for Operation in Iraq

Turkey said Tuesday it had begun preparations for a military operation into Iraq to chase separatist Kurdish rebels who have launched deadly attacks on soldiers in recent days.

Private NTV and CNN-Turk news channels reported that the government has decided to seek parliamentary authorization to launch a possible cross-border military operation in Iraq to pursue the rebels there. It was not clear when the government would seek the authorization.

A statement released after a meeting of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and security officials did not say that such an operation would definitely occur. Turkey has said it would prefer that the United States and its Iraqi Kurd allies in northern Iraq crack down on the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK.

"Institutions concerned have been given the necessary orders and instructions to make all kinds of legal, economic and political preparations to end the presence of the terror organization in a neighboring country in the upcoming period, including if necessary a cross-border operation," the statement said.

The statement did not mention any preparations by the military, which declared months ago that it was ready for an incursion into Iraq.

It said the PKK, which has fought for autonomy for Turkish Kurds since 1984, was trying to increase attacks in order to disrupt economic, social and political development in Turkey that had sapped support for the group.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the attacks were a "source of deep concern" for the Iraqis, Turks and the U.S. He urged Iraq and Turkey to cooperate against terrorists.

"If they have a problem, they need to work together to resolve it, and I'm not sure that unilateral incursions are the way to go," he said. "Sovereign states make decisions about how best to defend themselves. We have counseled, both in public and private, for many, many months, the idea that it is important to work cooperatively to resolve this issue."

The United States opposes a Turkish military operation in the relatively peaceful north of Iraq because it would complicate efforts to stabilize the rest of the country. Such an operation could be costly and inconclusive for Turkey, jeopardizing ties with Western allies, and hardening animosity among Turkey's minority population of Kurds.

Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul said parliament would have to approve any large-scale operation into Iraq, but said Turkish troops were entitled to limited, cross-border operations if they were attacked by rebels from Iraqi territory.

"If we're talking about hot pursuit, then there is no need for parliamentary authorization. If it's a cross-border operation, then there is need for one," Gonul said.

Backed by airpower, Turkish soldiers pressed ahead with a major offensive against separatist rebels in Sirnak province, close to the Iraq border.
Soldiers targeted suspected escape routes used by fighters and tracked rebels in the Gabar, Cudi, Namaz and Kato mountains in operations that began after 13 soldiers were killed in an ambush Sunday. Two more soldiers died in explosions Monday.

Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabagh said the violence in Sirnak and the killings of the Turkish soldiers was of "great concern" to Iraq. He extended condolences to the victims' families and solidarity with the Turkish people, but stressed that regional cooperation is key to confronting all terrorist groups.

Al-Dabagh invoked a September counterterrorism agreement signed by Iraq and Turkey that prohibits Turkey from sending troops to Iraq's north, and said that preserving that agreement was the way to maintain the security and sovereignty of both countries.

Turkey had demanded the right to send troops into Iraq's north to pursue Kurdish rebels. Iraq did not agree to the demand under pressure from the leaders of its semiautonomous Kurdish region.

Turks are furious that PKK rebels carry out attacks on Turkish soil and then slip across the border to mountain hideouts in the predominantly Kurdish region of northern Iraq. Turkey has accused Iraqi Kurds of tolerating their ethnic brethren in the PKK; one punitive measure at Turkey's disposal is to close the border with northern Iraq, hurting the economy of the landlocked region.

Still, the latest images of soldiers' coffins draped in the red and white Turkish flag intensified pressure on Erdogan.

Opposition leaders, chastened by defeat in general elections in July, condemned Erdogan's ruling party. One opposition group called for a cross-border operation, and another blamed the PKK attacks on the government's "lack of determination" to fight terrorism.

Nihat Ali Ozcan, a terrorism expert, noted that a cross-border offensive could disrupt efforts to assimilate its minority Kurdish population into the political process, especially after a bloc of pro-Kurdish lawmakers won seats in the July elections after an absence of more than a decade.

Erdogan also has a sensitive relationship with his own military, which has put the Islamic-rooted government on notice that it will not tolerate any effort to undermine Turkey's secular traditions.

The PKK is branded a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the European Union. Its war with Turkey has claimed tens of thousands of lives.

Iran, which is also fighting a Kurdish rebel group linked to the PKK, reopened five border crossing points with Kurdish-run northern Iraq on Monday. The border points had been closed Sept. 24 to protest the U.S. detention of an Iranian official.

Turkey Prepares for Operation in Iraq | Iraq Updates

Pressure on Turkish PM to order Iraq invasion

Turkey's Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, came under intense pressure on Monday night to order an invasion of northern Iraq following the deadliest attacks for over a decade on the Turkish military and civilians by separatist Kurdish guerrillas.

Erdogan, who has resisted demands from the Turkish armed forces for the past six months for a green light to cross the border into Iraqi Kurdistan, where the guerrillas are based, called an emergency meeting of national security chiefs to ponder their options in the crisis, a session that some said was tantamount to a war council.

A Turkish incursion is fiercely opposed by Washington since it would immensely complicate the United States campaign in Iraq and destabilise the only part of Iraq that functions, the Kurdish-controlled north.

Two Turkish soldiers were killed on Monday in booby trap explosions laid by guerrillas of the Kurdistan Workers' party (PKK) -- fighters classified as terrorists by Ankara, Washington and the European Union. Those casualties followed the killing of 13 Turkish soldiers in the south-east on Sunday when PKK forces outgunned a Turkish unit of 18 men without sustaining any casualties, according to the Kurds.

Last week, in an ambush also ascribed to the PKK, gunmen sprayed a bus with automatic fire in the same region, killing 13 civilians, including a boy of seven.

The Turkish media described the toll from the attacks as the worst in 12 years in a conflict spanning several decades that has taken almost 40 000 lives.

Erdogan is known to think little of the invasion option, making the pragmatic calculation that it would probably fail. Western diplomats in Ankara agree that an invasion could be counter-productive. The Turkish military raided Iraqi Kurdistan dozens of times in the 1990s but were unable to suppress the insurgency.

After a Cabinet meeting dominated by the Kurdish conflict, Cemil Cicek, the Turkish government spokesperson, said on Monday: "What is at issue here is how much any action we decide to take would bring us closer to a result." He did not rule out an invasion but queried its "usefulness".

The prime minister, however, is being challenged by the army command, which earlier this year demanded his authority to invade. He is also vulnerable to a mounting public clamour to act because of the upsurge in guerrilla activity and the heavy casualties being suffered. Hardline Turkish nationalists entered Parliament in Ankara following elections in July and they are also baying for Kurdish blood.

Following the soldiers' deaths on Sunday, Erdogan signalled a shift in policy without specifying how. "Our campaign against terrorism will continue in a different manner," he said. The Turkish military has just declared 27 "security zones" on the Iraqi and Iranian borders off-limits to civilians, suggesting to some that it might be gearing up for an invasion.

But de****e the rising violence, Erdogan has opted for politics in his attempts to defuse the conflict with the Kurds. His Justice and Development party (AKP) enjoyed a stunning success among the Kurdish minority, concentrated in the south-east, in the July elections and he has also focused on political pacts with Baghdad to get the better of the guerrillas.

Last week Iraqi and Turkish interior ministers signed an accord aimed at combating the PKK by trying to cut the rebels' funding and logistics, and agreeing to extradite captured "terrorists". The accord, however, took three days to thrash out; Turkish insistence on a "hot pursuit" formula, allowing cross-border raids, was denied, and scepticism is high as to whether Baghdad can deliver.

Officially, Ankara refuses to recognise or deal with the government of Iraqi Kurdistan, although there have been back-channel attempts over the past year to engage with Massoud Barzani, the president of the Iraqi Kurdish region.

Erdogan's options are also constrained by strong US hostility to an invasion. While Turkish public opinion has been strongly anti-American since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, much of the logistical support for the US troops goes to Iraq via Turkey. Relations are also under severe strain because of US congressional moves to brand the 1915 massacres of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey as "genocide".

Erdogan sent aides to Washington on Monday to lobby Congress on the "genocide" resolution. Ankara is also warning that it could block the logistical support to the US in Iraq if the resolution is passed.

PKK guerrillas

The Kurdish separatist guerrillas of the Kurdistan Workers' party, or PKK, have been at war with the Turkish state since the early 1980s. Although it is now said to favour home rule within Turkey over secession, the PKK has historically pursued the breakaway of Kurdish-dominated south-east Turkey as a prelude to unifying Kurdish lands in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. Turkey pursued a scorched earth policy in the 1980s and 1990s, destroying thousands of villages, sending millions of Kurds west and leaving about 37 000 dead. Turkey's biggest coup came in 1999 with the capture of the PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who was jailed for life.

Pressure on Turkish PM to order Iraq invasion | Iraq Updates

Turkey issues fresh warning of military incursion into Iraq
Ankara says ready to take all measures necessary to stop ‘terrorist’ actions of PKK

Turkey on Tuesday threatened a military incursion in northern Iraq as part of stepped up measures against Kurdish rebel bases there following the deaths of 15 soldiers in weekend attacks.

The government said in a statement that it had given orders allowing for all legal, economic and political measures, "including a cross-border operation if necessary," against a "terrorist organisation in a neighbouring country".

The statement was taken to refer to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) presence in Iraq.

Earlier, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had met senior government and military officials to discuss tougher action against the PKK after the rebels killed 15 soldiers in weekend attacks. The group is listed as a terrorist group by Ankara and much of the international community.

Ankara says the PKK enjoys free movement in northern Iraq and obtains weapons and explosives there for attacks across the border.

It has also accused Iraqi Kurds of tolerating and even supporting the rebels.

The government has forwarded to parliament a proposal to authorise such a venture, the CNN-Turk television channel reported, adding that it was currently under consideration.

Spontaneous demonstrations were meanwhile held Wednesday across various Turkish cities in support of incursions.

The Turkish military has long sought authorisation to strike against PKK bases in northern Iraq but Ankara has held back pressure from the United States. Washington does not want its Iraqi Kurdish allies forced into confrontation with the Turkish army.

Turkey and Iraq signed an accord last month to combat the PKK but failed to agree on a clause allowing Turkish troops to engage in "hot pursuit" against rebels fleeing into Iraqi territory, as they did regularly in the 1990s.

Washington meanwhile immediately issued a warning to Ankara.
"I am not sure that unilateral incursions are the way to go, the way to resolve the issue," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said in Washington.

"We have counseled them both in public and private for many, many months (on) the idea that it is important to work cooperatively to resolve this issue," McCormack added.

Many observers here doubt whether the embattled Baghdad government, which has virtually no authority in northern Iraq, can cajole the Iraqi Kurds into action against the PKK.

The group's 23-year armed campaign for self-rule in southeast Turkey has left more than 37,000 dead.

A PKK ambush on Saturday killed 13 soldiers in southeast Sirnak province bordering Iraq, the worst losses the army has suffered against the rebels since 1995.

Another soldier was killed in a clash with the rebels Saturday and one early Monday in a remote-controlled landmine explosion.

The attacks followed the killing of 12 people, mostly civilians but including anti-PKK Kurdish "Village Guard" militia, in an ambush on a minibus in Sirnak on September 29.

Tuesday's government statement said rising PKK violence was due to a series of economic, social and political measures that had improved the living conditions of the country's sizeable Kurdish community, leading the PKK "to lose popular support" in the southeast.

Under European Union pressure, Turkey has in recent years broadened Kurdish cultural freedoms and lifted emergency rule in the southeast of the country.

The July 22 parliamentary elections saw Erdogan's Justice and Development Party considerably increase its support in the region at the expense of the country's main Kurdish political movement, the Democratic Society Party.

Turkey issues fresh warning of military incursion into Iraq | Iraq Updates

Higher demand for dollar in daily auction

Demand for the dollar was higher in the Iraqi Central Bank’s auction on Tuesday, reaching $71.705 million compared to $42.700 million on Monday.

In its daily statement, the bank said it had covered all bids, including $5.565 million in cash and $66.140 in foreign transfers, at an exchange rate of 1,232 dinars per dollar, the same as yesterday.

The 13 banks that participated in Tuesday's session offered to sell one million dollars, which the bank bought at an exchange rate of 1,230 dinars per dollar.

In statements to the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI), Ali al-Yasseri, a trader, said that the higher demand was only for foreign transfers, while the cash retreated as the price in the market is still less than the price in the auction.

The Iraqi Central Bank runs a daily auction from Sunday to Thursday.

Higher demand for dollar in daily auction | Iraq Updates

American Withdrawal and the Second Stage

In preparation for the American withdrawal from Iraq, activity is in full swing to fill the imminent vacuum in Baghdad.

The Iranians are not the only ones who are preparing for this; the Syrians are also getting ready. A recent report in the New York Times details Syria’s intentions towards Baghdad.

Iran has, in fact, been present in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime. As for Syria, it has been one of the disrupters of the Iraqi project however from afar. Nevertheless, what is new today is Damascus’s endeavour to reorganise the Baathist rather than the Sunni elements as is commonly believed, in order to ensure Syrian influence in Iraq.

In his interview with the BBC, the Syrian President stated that his country has influence over Lebanon; an influence that he described as positive. We all know that this is not true. This is the problem with Syria and Iran before it. The intervention of both countries can never be positive. Syria and Iran are two models that are not in accord with the future. Hence, it is from here that the Arab world’s problem arises since the two key political players today are Iran and Syria.

Syria wants the Golan Heights without war and wants to win America over without having to adopt a moderate approach or refrain from interfering in Lebanon or Iraq. At the same time it denounces other Arab countries as traitors because of their relationship with Washington. Meanwhile, President Bashar Assad himself stated in a recent interview that Washington must be a third party to ensure peace with Tel Aviv.

It is for this reason that Damascus, like Iran, is playing the Hamas card, a movement that is affiliated to the Muslim Brotherhood, while it suppresses the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria. Damascus is also playing the Shia Hezbollah card in Lebanon. It is now weaving the web for the Baath party of Iraq under the “Sunni” umbrella in Baghdad, in the same way that Iran stifles the Sunnis of Iran but allies with Hamas!

Iran, by imposing fait accompli or reaching an agreement with the United States, wants to dominate the Arab world and to resume exporting the Islamic revolution.

All this is taking place in light of what can be mildly described as a decline in Arab action towards Tehran and Damascus and the deteriorating Iraqi situation. This is not to belittle Tehran or Damascus or control over Iraq but rather to impose stability on the region and prevent those who seek to abuse from tampering with Arab countries and disrupting development projects, and to be free from Iranian influence and Syrian tampering.

This is the main problem. America will leave the region and we will find ourselves opening a new chapter that is no better than where we are today. After the devouring of Iraq and Lebanon at the hands of Iran and Syria, the Gulf region will be under the siege of the Islamic revolution and under pressure from Syrian meddling. In this case, we could only welcome the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups, which will launch their own branches in many Arab countries under Iranian sponsorship and Syrian support.

It is then that we will see many Khaled Meshaals, Hassan Nasrallahs, Rustum Ghazalis and corps, the names of which will begin with “Jerusalem”, and we do not know where this will all end. Therefore, in light of the American exit and the lack of Arab activity, the region will witness its second stage of downfall; however, this time, it will be in the hands of Tehran and Damascus. As the popular saying goes: with friends like these, who needs enemies?

American Withdrawal and the Second Stage | Iraq Updates