Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Supreme council, Sadrists agree on activating compact

Officials from the Islamic supreme council and Sadrists agreed on accelerate activating the honor compact which was made between Mr. Abdulazeez Hakeem and Mr. Muqtada Sadr.

This agreement made at fast breaking banquet which held by the supreme council and invited Sadrist Parliament's figures and leaders in Najaf after signing the compact between the head of the council and the leader of the Sadrists, Sadrledeen Qupanachi, senior member of the council, said.

He added that the meeting supports unity of Shiite sect, Shiite Sunni's ties and Iraq as a whole.

The meeting was attended by many figures of the council who represent Badr Org. and Mihrab martyr Org. as some Sadrist's figures.

Supreme council, Sadrists agree on activating compact | Iraq Updates

New reform current raised by Ja'fari

Dr. Ibrahim Ja'fari would raise soon proposal of new reform current, Nahidh Hindi, Ja'fari's advisor said.

He mentioned that the project which would raise by previous PM wouldn’t include forming new party or bloc, but would provide many solutions and opinions to solve recent crises in the country.

Hindi denied that the project includes pro Saddam or excommunicators, mentioned that Ja'fari works to apply secularism in working and life, while he confirmed that the new national current aims to face challenges with new vision.

He referred to the project's rejection of sectarian or ethnic federalism, but it supports the federalism in every province according to constitution.

New reform current raised by Ja'fari | Iraq Updates

Iraq budget targets water and school investments

Iraq has prepared a US$42 billion ($55.9 billion) budget for 2008, an increase of US$1 billion on this year, says Finance Minister Bayan Jabor.

Jabor said US$10 billion would be spent on investment projects outside the Baghdad region, focusing on schools and water projects. An additional US$4 billion unspent this year would be rolled over into next year, boosting spending to US$46 billion.

"It will include investment money for US$10 billion and it targets supporting the southern, northern and western provinces. Their share will be increased by 55 per cent," he said.

"Also some amounts from 2007 will be given to the ministries and provinces. This will give extra money for the budget which means it is around US$46 billion."

Jabor said Iraq calculated 2008 revenues based on assumed oil exports of 1.7 million barrels per day at US$50 per barrel. Average exports in 2007 have been 1.6 million bpd, he said.

The 2008 budget also assumes an exchange rate of 1260 dinars to the US dollar, the same as this year. But the government may strengthen the Iraqi currency to 1200 to the dollar during the course of the year, Jabor said.

AdvertisementThe Government strengthened the dinar by 13 per cent against the dollar last year after raising interest rates to limit the use of dollars in the economy and stem inflation. This helped boost central bank foreign currency and gold reserves to US$22 billion, he said.

Iraq's dependence on oil revenues will fall to 88 per cent next year from 94 per cent because of income from telecommunications .

http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=4703

The White House Refuses the Press Reports about Iraq

The White House spokeswoman Dana Perino rejected the results of some press reports as saying that there is no hope to achieve the national reconciliation in Iraq, especially the report of the Washington Post which mentioned that the reconciliation became a hope that cannot be reached.
And in a press conference in the White house, she answered the reporters about this matter. And here below are the questions and answers about Iraq:

Q) Dana, following on something else in the gaggle this morning -- Deputy Prime Minister in Iraq is quoted in a recent Washington Post article as saying, "I don't think there is something called reconciliation. There will be no reconciliation as such." And in the same article, a Vice President says, "There's been no significant progress for months." When you're asked about this, you often point to this agreement in -- I think it was late August -- this statement of purpose, which is now six weeks old. It's getting really hard to find any evidence of forward progress in reconciliation. Would you agree with that?

MS. PERINO): I can understand how some people would see it that way, and I know that the Iraqis are --

Q) What other way is there to see it?

MS. PERINO): Well, I said that -- well, I think that if you're in the Iraqis' shoes and you're looking at what is a complex situation, and you have a de-Baathification law that's in front of parliament, and that parliament needs to act, you have a president, President Talabani, who is bringing people together to work on the national oil law, and you have provincial elections that are moving -- that they're trying to move forward as well -- those are the three big key issues.

But on the -- at the provincial level, at the local government level, there is reconciliation taking place. And there -- in practice, some of these things are working. For example, I've pointed to before, the central government is providing the provinces with funds in order to run their services so that there is a buy-in from the local public, that they feel that they are getting response from their government, and it's starting to really take hold in those local provinces. And the central government, the federal government, is starting to take notice. And they know that they need to get this work done. I believe that they're committed to it. The President presses them on it, and he believes that they'll get it done.

PUKmedia :: English - The White House Refuses the Press Reports about Iraq

Al-Dabagh: We Reject any Turkish Incursionin Kurdistan Region Lands

The Iraqi Government official spokesman Ali al-Dabagh, announced that the government rejects any Turkish military incursion into the territory of Iraq’s Kurdistan to pursue PKK elements.

In a press conference to al-Arabiya satellite TV channel, today, he said that the Iraqi government hasn’t signed any agreement with Turkey that allows them to enter Kurdistan territory.

He also said that “we realize the existence of PKK elements’ existence in the border areas damages the two countries interests, but Iraq is a sovereign country and we will not allow any infringement of its boders.”

The Turkish government gave the green light to the army to follow PKK elements in the mountainous areas of Iraqi Kurdistan, after PKK has killed 15 Turkish soldiers.

PUKmedia :: English - Al-Dabagh: We Reject any Turkish Incursionin Kurdistan Region Lands

President Talabani’s Assistant for Trade Affairs receives Trade Unions Secretary of Czech Republic

President Talabani’s Assistant for Trade Affairs Abdullah Haji Saieed, received Mr. Majid Shames Toma, Trade Unions secretary of Czech Republic on 10,10,2007.

During the meeting, Mr. Abdullah Haji Saieed talked about Kurdistan Region’s relationship with Czech Republic, the Czech companies that are working in the fields of trade, investment and industry in Kurdistan and Kurdistan Region’s facilitation for that purpose.

Trade Unions Secretary discussed the fields of their work and a protocol is going to be signed between both sides for the development of investment in Kurdistan.

He invited President’s Assistant to visit Czech to consolidate the relation between both countries.

PUKmedia :: English - President Talabani’s Assistant for Trade Affairs receives Trade Unions Secretary of Czech Republic

What Can Turkey Do?

1-Turkey is already conducting hot pursuit operations against the PKK sometimes entering a few kilometers into Iraqi territory. But this is limited in scope and does not yield the expected results of preventing PKK infiltration.

2-Turkey can order a cross border operation that would be designed to penetrate deeper into Iraqi territory and get to the PKK bases. But by the time the Turkish forces reach these areas the terrorists bands would have escaped.

3-Turkey can stay in a vast area of northern Iraq after a cross border operation trying to control the areas where PKK is holed up but this would have international repercussions for Turkey from the U.S. and European Union.

4-Turkish jets could bomb the areas where the PKK is holed up in northern Iraq but that would hardly achieve anything as such tactics have proven ineffective against any guerrilla group in the past. 5-Military, political and economic operations against the PKK could be conducted in close collaboration with Iran and if possible with the Iraqi Kurds. Turkey has to deploy effective security teams that will operate in a wide corridor from Tunceli to 60 kilometers inside northern Iraq against the PKK. This will need close cooperation from Iran and the Iraqi Kurds.

ECONOMIC OPTION

1-Turkey could shutdown its Habur border crossing into Iraq and thus exert pressure on Iraq, on the Americans and the Iraqi Kurds. But this would also have serious repercussions for the local population in southeastern Turkey that depend on Habur. If the Turkish and Iranian borders were closed together in coordination with Iran this would have a devastating effect on the Iraqi Kurds.

2-Turkey could cut electricity exports to Iraq and create a severe energy shortage in northern Iraq. It could also stop air travel from Istanbul to Erbil and Suleimania. Turkey can also close its airspace to planes flying to and from northern Iraq. Such steps would really hurt the Iraqi Kurdish economy.

3-Turkey could tell its contractors to quit northern Iraq and return home. This would not have much effect these days because many of the companies are very unhappy with the work they do in northern Iraq and are fed up with local obstacles and already want to leave but are stuck because of financial problems. There are also Turkish oil companies active in the region.

4-Ankara could impose sanctions on Iraqi Kurds doing business and control the activities of Iraqi Kurdish companies in Turkey. There are several such companies in Mersin and Istanbul that could be affected by sanctions.

*****

The killing of 13 Turkish soldiers in a PKK ambush has created an uproar again in Turkey with the public and opposition demanding swift action against the terrorists.

Turkish leaders have promised strong measures with Deputy Prime Minister and government spokesman Cemil Cicek saying "this is where words end..." Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said new and different measures will be introduced in the fight against the terrorists...
The military and economic options are limited but this does not mean affective measures can be put in place.

Turkey feels it's problem lies in northern Iraq where the PKK militants are holed up in camps in and round the Kandil Mountains. The area is controlled by the Iraqi Kurdish autonomous administration led by Massoud Barzani. However, the Kurds say they cannot control the area.

Similar attacks in the past have increased Turkish public demands for a cross border operation. The military has been insisting for months that a cross border operation into Iraq is needed to deal a heavy blow to the PKK and stall it. The government has preferred a wait and see approach.

But the latest killings of soldiers has rekindled demands for urgent action with a cross border operation on top of the list.

A close study of recent events shows that Turkey is already launching hot pursuit operations to chase PKK militants into Iraq. But this is limited in scope as they enter about 5 kilometers into Iraq and swiftly withdraw.

What the military wants is a more comprehensive operation but that would mean Turkish forces would have to enter deep into Iraqi territory around Kandil and move 60 kilometers in hostile land. This would not be in the scope of hot pursuit rules. However, experts say by the time Turkey moves into the area the PKK bands would have taken off and melted into the terrain... They would regroup and return once the Turks depart.

So for this reason the military would prefer an extended stay in the region to prevent the PKK from taking up positions again. This is easier said than done both militarily and politically. The costs would be huge and the strains on the military would be great. But beyond that Turkey would have to fight new diplomatic wars on the international arena against the Americans and the European Union as well as other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council...

The U.S. has already warned Turkey not to take any unilateral action in Iraq. Besides this Turkey has signed an counter-terrorism agreement with Iraq recently that introduces a series of measures to crack down on the activities of the PKK. But the Turkish military is still unhappy with the agreement because it does not allow for hot pursuit.

Turkish jets could bomb the PKK camps in northern Iraq but experts say this would be a waste of time and resources as air strikes are known to have limited effect on a guerrilla insurgency.

So what is left is really a joint Turkish-Iranian military operation against the PKK in the Kandil Mountains with the blessing of the Iraqi Kurds.
Turkish military experts have explained to The New Anatolian that PKK militants are active on a vast band that stretches from the eastern province of Tunceli all the way across eastern and southeastern Turkey 60 kilometers into Iraq. "You need well trained fast acting specialized mobile units to counter the PKK and move across Turkey if necessary all the way into northern Iraq," the TNA was told.

Here the cooperation of the Iraqi Kurds are needed. Iraqi Kurdish leaders have often said they aren't about to send their forces off on a treacherous struggle with hardened guerrillas in difficult terrain. Iraq's Kurds fought the PKK several times before in the 1990s, and they're not looking forward to repeating the ugly experiences. Plus, the Iraqi Kurds say their peshmerga are already stretched thin. Besides keeping Arab terrorists out of the Kurdish region, peshmerga are also helping the Iraqi army in Mosul and Baghdad.

Iran also complains about Iraqi Kurds allowing PKK affiliated PJAK militants operating inn their territory. Iran has stepped up security operations against the Kurds inside its territory while shelling Kurdish villages across the border.

Iran recently closed its borders with the Kurdish region citing terrorist concerns but in fact they were protesting the arrest of an Iranian by the Americans in Suleimania.

It is interesting to note that the border closing paid off and the Iraqi Kurds had to send a delegation to Tehran to convince the Iranians that they would put up an effective fight against the Kurdish militants. Iran opened the border gates on Monday for a trial period to see if the Iraqi Kurds would keep their promise. diplomatic sources said.

Observers say Turkey should coordinate its fight against the PKK with Iran. There are already signs that this is happening as Turkey and Iran reportedly shelled the Iraqi Kurdish areas in succession. But the participation of the Iraqi Kurds are needed in this process.

To enlist their active help there are suggestions in Ankara that economic measures are needed against the Iraqi Kurds.

Turkey could shutdown its Habur border crossing into Iraq and thus exert pressure on Iraq, on the Americans and the Iraqi Kurds. Habur provides the logistics support for the American forces in Iraq. It is also the only border crossing from Turkey into Iraq.

But such a move could have serious repercussions for the local population in southeastern Turkey that depend on Habur. If Habur closes the locals who sustain a living from the gate could suffer badly and in return seek remedies by helping the PKK.

If the Turkish and Iranian borders were closed together in coordination with Iran this would have a devastating effect on the Iraqi Kurds and probably push them to cooperate effectively with Ankara and Tehran.
Turkey could also cut electricity exports to Iraq and create a severe energy shortage in northern Iraq. The Duhok province relies completely on Turkish electricity as well as many areas in the region. This could cause deep resentment in the area. Turkey can use this pretext dealing a heavy blow to the Iraqi Kurds who want to travel to Europe via Turkey.

Turkey could also stop air travel from Istanbul to Erbil and Suleimania. Sweden and Austria have declared the northern Iraq airspace as unsafe and suspended all flights to and from the region. Thus Austrian Air has stopped scheduled flights to Erbil.

Turkey can also close its airspace to planes flying to and from northern Iraq. In recent weeks Turkey has denied the flights of a German charter plane which was flying for the so-called Kurdistan Airlines.

Such steps would really hurt the Iraqi Kurdish economy.

Besides all this Turkey could tell its contractors to quit northern Iraq and return home. This would not have much effect these days because many of the companies are very unhappy with the work they do in northern Iraq and are fed up with local obstacles and already want to leave but are stuck because of financial problems.

Ankara could also impose sanctions on Iraqi Kurds doing business and control the activities of Iraqi Kurdish companies in Turkey.
All these would be geared to forcing the Iraqi Kurds to cooperate against the PKK but it would need active Iranian help.

PUKmedia :: English - What Can Turkey Do?

Turkey Authorizes Troops to Enter Iraq to Fight Rebels

Turkey took a step toward a military operation in Iraq on Tuesday, as its top political and military leaders issued a statement authorizing troops to cross the Iraq border to eliminate separatist Kurdish rebel camps in the northern region.

Turkey moved toward military action in the face of strong opposition by the United States, which is anxious to maintain peace in the region, one of the rare areas of stability in conflict-torn Iraq. But more than two dozen Turkish soldiers have been killed in recent days, and the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed far more determined than before to act decisively.

A government official without authorization to speak publicly on the issue who asked not to be identified by name, said preparations were under way to seek parliamentary approval for a cross-border military operation, a request that would be the first formal step toward an offensive.
The Associated Press reported that the request would be submitted to Parliament as early as Wednesday.

Government offices and institutions have been ordered “to take all economic and political measures, including cross-border operations when necessary, in order to end the existence of the terror organization in a neighboring country,” said the statement, which was released by Mr. Erdogan’s office, after he met with political and military leaders in Ankara.

A Turkish military offensive into northern Iraq, while unlikely, would have far-reaching consequences for the United States. Turkey is a NATO member and has the region’s most powerful army. Turkey’s support of the United States in the Iraq war is crucial. The United States’ Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey supplies the military in central Iraq.

Sean McCormack, a State Department spokesman, said the United States had encouraged Turkish officials to work together with the Iraqi government.

“In our view, it is not going to lead to a long-term, durable solution to have significant incursions from Turkey into Iraq,” he said at a news briefing in Washington.

But Iraq’s government has little authority in the region, which is controlled exclusively by Kurds, and an accord reached by Iraq’s interior minister and senior Turkish officials last month did not include permission for military operations, a formulation that frustrated Turkey.

Relations between the United States and Turkey are delicate on another front. A bill on the Armenian genocide — the killing of more than a million Armenians by Turkey at the end of World War I — is due before the House Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday. Turks have been working to prevent its consideration, with Mr. Erdogan making phone calls Tuesday, according to a Turkish member of Parliament in Washington to work against the bill.

Its passage “would be insulting to Turkey,” said Egeman Bagis, the Parliament member. “It would mean losing Turkey’s support in the region.”

He did not say precisely what that might mean. Turkey ended military cooperation with France last year after France voted to make denial of the Armenian genocide a crime.

“It could make it very difficult for Turkey to continue supporting” the United States in Iraq, Mr. Bagis said.

Turkey’s foreign minister, Ali Babacan, made a similar appeal to Israeli authorities on a visit over the weekend, asking them to press Congress to drop the matter. Turkey has close relations with Israel, and Turkish officials have bristled at a recent statement by the Anti-Defamation League declaring that the killing of Armenians was “tantamount to genocide.”

Some analysts said that given the complex relationships among Turkey, Iraq and the United States, Turkey would continue to consider military action a last resort.

Edip Baser, a retired general who was special coordinator in a United States-Turkey effort against the Kurdish Workers’ Party in 2006, said it was likely that political and military leaders would wait for the appropriate time to act.

The government official who asked not to be identified by name said: “Our government will soon start technical consultation with the military to see what they need in order to end this violence that make our hearts bleed. First, there needs to be necessary preparations and assessments. We can say that they have already started.” Senior cabinet members, state officials and high-ranking military officials met Tuesday after President Abdullah Gul, Mr. Erdogan and Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, the leader of the Turkish Army, vowed to strengthen efforts against the Kurdish Workers’ Party, the Kurdish rebel group.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/10/wo...hp&oref=slogin

Turkish warplanes attack suspected rebel positions on Iraq border

Turkish warplanes bombed positions of suspected Kurdish rebels Wednesday, and the prime minister said preparations for parliamentary approval of a military mission against separatist fighters in Iraq were under way.

A cross-border operation could hurt Turkey's relationship with the United States, which opposes Turkish intervention in northern Iraq, a region that has escaped the violence afflicting much of the rest of the country.
U.S. officials are already preoccupied with efforts to stabilize areas of Iraq outside the predominantly Kurdish northern region.

Turkey and the United States are NATO allies, but ties have also been tense over a U.S. congressional bill that would label the mass killings of Armenians by Turks around the time of World War I as genocide. President Bush strongly urged Congress to reject the bill, saying it would do ''great harm'' to U.S.-Turkish relations.

Turkish troops blocked rebel escape routes into Iraq while F-16 and F-14 warplanes and Cobra helicopters dropped bombs on possible hideouts, Dogan news agency reported. The military had dispatched tanks to the region to support the operation against the rebel Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, in response to more than a week of deadly attacks in southeastern Turkey.

Turkish authorities also detained 20 suspected Kurdish rebels at a border crossing with Iraq, the office for the governor of Sirnak said in a statement.

Dogan said the military had installed night vision cameras at strategic points to prevent any rebels fleeing at night. The agency said there was fog Wednesday morning in the Gabar and Cudi regions of Sirnak province, near the Iraq border, forcing warplanes to fly low.

The military activity followed attacks by PKK rebels that killed 15 soldiers since Sunday and prompted Turkey's government to push for a possible cross-border offensive against separatist bases in Iraq. Turkish Kurd rebels have been fighting for autonomy in southeast Turkey since 1984 in a conflict that has claimed tens of thousands of lives.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said preparations for a parliamentary authorization for a cross-border mission were under way, but did not say when the motion would reach the floor. The preparations ''have started and are continuing,'' he said.

A member of the governing Justice and Development Party said a request for parliamentary approval for a cross-border ground offensive was unlikely to come to the floor before the end of a four-day religious holiday on Sunday. He asked not to be named because he was not authorized to speak to reporters.

Turkish troops targeting the guerrillas' suspected escape routes in mountainous areas in Sirnak province have ''squeezed'' a group of about 80 rebels on Mount Gabar, in Sirnak, the Hurriyet newspaper reported. Escape routes were being bombed by helicopter gunships while transport helicopters were airlifting special commando units to strategic points.

Turkish troops were also shelling suspected PKK camps in the regions of Kanimasa, Nazdur and Sinath, in northern Iraq, from positions in Turkey's Hakkari province, just across the border, Hurriyet reported. Tanks were positioned near the town of Silopi, in Sirnak province, the paper said.

At least one artillery unit was seen positioned on the Turkish side of the border, across from the Iraqi Kurdish town of Zakho, with guns facing toward Iraq.

The paper said the government would impose an information blackout on its preparations for a possible cross-border offensive.

On Wednesday, an opposition nationalist party that has long been advocating an incursion into Iraq called on the government to swiftly take the motion to parliament and said it would back it.

If parliament approves, the military could choose to immediately launch an operation or wait to see if the United States and its allies, jolted by the Turkish action, decide to crack down on the rebels.

Turkey conducted two dozen large-scale incursions into Iraq between the late 1980s and 1997. The last such operation, in 1997, involved tens of thousands of troops and government-paid village guards.

Other punitive measure at Turkey's disposal including cutting electricity supplies and closing the border with Iraq.

Santa Barbara News-Press

Turkish firms leave as tensions rise over Kurdish rebels

In a surprise move, Turkish firms working in northern Iraq have begun to terminate their activities in anticipation of a major Turkish military incursion.

Turkish troops are amassing on the border in preparation of a possible military operation against Turkish Kurdish rebels in the area.

The rebels are said to be using the Iraqi Kurdish region as a springboard for attacks inside Turkey.

The Kurdish regional government says it has mobilized its militias, locally known as peshmerga, to confront any military incursion by Turkey.

Many companies are said to have evacuated their employees and ended their contracts, according to Ahmad Ajar, head of the Turkish Businessmen Society in Arbil.

“Major companies are ending their work in northern Iraq and on way to return home,” he said.

The semi-independent Kurdish region relies heavily on relations with neighboring Turkey and Iran. Turkish and Iranian firms, contracts and investments provide jobs for tens of thousands of Iraqi Kurds.

The relative stability of the region has been luring Turkish and Iranian firms but the countries are reported to be reducing their activities in response to political tension.

Turkey’s investments in the region are estimated at $5 billion.

Iran also plays a vital role in business and development of the region. Its closure of the five border crossings with the enclave has dumped business activity, particularly in the border Province of Sulaimaniya.

On Monday, Iran opened one of the crossings following a visit by high-ranking Kurdish officials to Tehran.

The closure, in response to U.S. troops’ detention of a visiting Iranian official, has led to shortages in basic commodities and loss of business and employment to tens of thousands of Kurds.

Kurdish officials say they have been losing $1 million in lost trade every day since the closure of the crossings last month.

http://www.azzaman.com/english/index.asp?fname=news\2007-10-10\kurd.htm