Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Military Incursion not a Foregone Conclusion

If you believe the press Turkish forces will be across the border as soon as they get the nod from the parliament… However, this is not the case. All this talk of an incursion is more to do with easing Turkish public furor over the killings of our soldiers.

It is clear that the public pressures have forced the authorities to talk about a cross border operation into northern Iraq against PKK camps.

The Turkish public has been made to believe that a cross border operation is a magical solution to wipe out the PKK from northern Iraq and to end the violence in Turkey. Of course this is not true and Turkish Chief of Staff General Yasar Buyukanit knows this as much as Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Turkey has to enter deep into northern Iraq and stay there for several months if it wants to prevent the terrorists from using this area to stage attacks inside Turkey. This needs huge resources and as such an operation will be have internationally complications it will push Turkey into corner with the United States and European Union…

Both the U.S. and EU have already issued warnings to Ankara in the past 24 hours not to seek such an adventure.

We feel that even if the parliament gives the authority to our forces to enter northern Iraq we do not think this will be in the form of a massive incursion…

All we are seeing now is a public affairs exercise to keep the public happy with the magical words of "cross border operation."

The Turkish public has been treated to a very strong adverse propaganda to the extent that people are now screaming for revenge.

We feel there is much Turkey can do and will do but that may not be in the form of such a military incursion. That is why the security summit talked about "legal, economic and political measures" to dislodge the PKK in northern Iraq besides talking about the cross border operations option.

Ankara has to convince the Iraqi Kurdish leadership with tangible examples that they have a lot to lose economically if they do not take serious measures to scuttle the PKK in their region. This simply does not mean they have to send their peshmerga forces to the mountains to dislodge the PKK but they can take active measures so that the PKK militants "do not feel at home" in their region.

It is no secret that there is some visible sympathy among some Kurds for the PKK and that the militants are getting encouragement if not direct support.

All this has to stop.

PKK should be isolated in their mountain hideouts which is not the case today…

We have said over an over again that the Iraqi Kurdish leaders have to make some gestures to Ankara. But this has not been the case.
The Iraqi Kurds have to do something immediately if they do not want to face the wrath of Ankara…

PUKmedia :: English - Military Incursion not a Foregone Conclusion

Turkey Should not Resort to an Incursion

The regional government in northern Iraq called on Turkey Thursday not to carry through on its threat to mount an armed cross-border incursion against Kurdish separatists.

"Recourse to military action is not going to help resolve the question of security on our borders," regional government spokesman, Jamal Abdullah, told Agence France-Presse.

PUKmedia :: English - Turkey Should not Resort to an Incursion

PKK rebels say heading from Iraq to Turkey-statement

Rebels from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), fighting for an independent homeland in southeastern Turkey, said on Friday they are moving back into Turkey from northern Iraq.

The rebels also warned in a statement that they will target Turkey's ruling AK Party and main opposition CHP.

The announcement comes as Turkey's government prepares to seek permission from parliament to carry out a cross-border offensive against an estimated 3,000 rebels it says are based in northern Iraq.

The PKK is considered a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the United States and the European Union.

PKK rebels say heading from Iraq to Turkey-statement | Reuters

Kuwait to Host Iraq Neighbors Meeting

The Persian Gulf State of Kuwait will host Interior ministers of Iraq's neighbor countries to discuss ways to achieve stability in Iraq.

The head of the Interior Ministry's Legal Department, Major General Khalid al-Ossaimi, said a number of issues are on the agenda but the ministers will focus on Iraq's security concerns on the October 23rd meeting.

The one-day meeting will be preceded by a gathering of experts on October 20 and 21, he added.

The interior ministers' meeting comes ahead of a major conference of Iraq's neighbors planned for Istanbul in late October in which the neighbors will discuss Iraq's problems.

In a similar conference held in Sharm el-Sheik, Egypt, neighbors promised to stop foreign terrorists from joining Iraq's insurgency, a pledge that is not fulfilled yet.

According to US officials, more than 50 percent of foreign insurgents are from Saudi Arabia.

PUKmedia :: English - Kuwait to Host Iraq Neighbors Meeting

Turkey Recalls Ambassador to U.S.
The government's move in response to the genocide bill approved by a House panel may foreshadow more forceful measures

Turkey recalled its ambassador to Washington on Thursday and denounced as "unacceptable" a congressional panel's vote declaring the early 20th century slaughter of Armenians by Ottoman Turks a genocide.

Even as the Bush administration scrambled to try to stem the diplomatic fallout, Turkish President Abdullah Gul castigated the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Thursday for its 27-21 vote, saying the decision "has no validity and is not worthy of the respect of the Turkish people."

The withdrawal of Ambassador Nabi Sensoy, coming only hours after the committee vote Wednesday, was a clear signal of Turkish disapproval and is widely expected to be followed by retaliatory steps after weeks of threats that House action would have serious consequences.

Turkey is likely to calibrate its response, Turkish officials and independent analysts said. The government in Ankara could start with relatively mild moves and ratchet them up if the full House votes to adopt the nonbinding resolution later this year, as is expected. One early step may be for the Turkish parliament to authorize its military to cross into Iraq in pursuit of Kurdish extremists. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he will request that authorization, which could come next week.

PUKmedia :: English - Turkey Recalls Ambassador to U.S.

PM urges Iraqis to set nation's high interests as top priority

Baghdad, Oct 12, (VOI) – Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Friday called on the political blocs and the groups of the Iraqi people to "set the nation's high interests as top priority and to work on enhancing national unity and reconciliation."

"I would seize this delightful opportunity to urge all groups of the Iraqi people to fend off sedition, disseminate a spirit of dialogue, reconciliation and tolerance and consolidate peace all over our beloved Iraq," Maliki said in a statement on the occasion of Eidul-Fitr as received by the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).

Maliki stressed the need that "scholars, clerics, intellectuals and politicians should enhance the culture of dialogue and coexistence."
The awqaf (endowments) ministry in the autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan region and the Sunni Endowment announced that Friday will be the first day of the month of Shawal and Eidul-Fitr, the festivity that follows the holy fasting month of Ramadan.

Meanwhile, Shiite Muslims in Iraq are still waiting for statements by the Shiite clerics in the holy city of al-Najaf to determine the beginning of the month of Shawal and Eidul-Fitr, expected to be Saturday or Sunday.


Aswat Aliraq

Iraq Union Agreement with Iraq Ministry

One of Iraq’s two major oil unions has apparently signed a truce with its nemesis, the federal government, over challenging the draft oil law.

The Al-Sabah newspaper reports the General Unions of Oil Employees in Basra, also known as the General Union of Oil Workers, reached an agreement at a recent meeting.

The two sides have been at odds over a variety of working conditions demands, as well as a draft oil law that the unions claim was made without enough input and contained oil contracts they fear will give too much to foreign and private oil companies.

Faraj Rabat Mezban, GUOE’s director of culture and media, said 19 union leaders met with Nabil Ahmed, a representative for the Ministry of National Security.

That ministry includes the oil protection force, which guards oil sector installations, and other forces and confronted striking oil workers in June.

In the agreement the GUOE affirmed the Parliament is the sole legislative body in Iraq but that anyone is able to object or comment on proposed or passed legislation, a reference to the ongoing debate over the oil law.

The union also agreed to scale back on threats, provocation and civil disobedience over unmet demands, which some members have made to the media.

The workers and ministry officials will put together a list of demands, which will be taken to the Council of Ministers and the Ministry of Oil.

United Press International - International Security - Energy - Briefing

Analysis: Hunt, State talked on Iraq oil
A representative from Dallas-based Hunt Oil Corp. did talk with the U.S. State Department prior to signing a controversial oil deal with Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government, according to an internal department communication obtained by United Press International.

Hunt Oil, whose chief executive officer is connected to the Bush administration by campaign donations and a seat on an intelligence advisory board, had previously denied the meeting.

The company now says the meeting took place but that Hunt did not seek advice from the U.S. government on investing in a country with the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves.

The Sept. 8 production-sharing contract with the KRG set off Baghdad, which accuses the region of unilaterally and illegally signing oil deals. The Hunt deal wasn’t the first or final such contract signed between private oil companies and the Kurds, who say they have the constitutional right to sign deals and blame Baghdad for its inability to make headway on a national oil law.

The U.S. government has been cautious in comment, aside from maintaining that it hurts their efforts in bolstering the ability of the central government to reconcile and rule the country.

A day after the Kurds announced two more oil deals, with Canadian and French companies, Hunt Chief Executive Officer Ray Hunt told the Wall Street Journal: "The State Department must have been misinformed. … We did not consult with anyone in the (U.S. government) prior to signing our agreement."

On Sept. 5, according to the State Department communication transmitted Sept. 6, the Hunt official in charge of the region met in Irbil, the KRG capital, with officials from the U.S. Agency for International Development.

“Hunt is expecting to sign an exploration contract with the KRG,” the communication stated.

“Asked about concerns over potential conflicts between the recently passed KRG hydrocarbon law and a national law, (the Hunt official) said the 'significant opportunity' outweighs the legal ambiguity,” the communication states. “Unlike the large players, Hunt is not looking at the entire Iraqi market. He also thought that it may take years to pass a national law.”

When asked about the conflicting statements, Jeanne Phillips, Hunt senior vice president for corporate affairs and international relations, confirmed the Sept. 5 meeting and a Hunt delegation led by David McDonald, Hunt general manager for Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

"It is correct that four Hunt technical representatives involved in a due diligence meeting for risk analysis and opportunity assessment in the Kurdistan region of Iraq properly met with USAID officials in Irbil in a routine, courtesy meeting seeking information on the risks of doing business in the Kurdistan area,” McDonald, who is now in Iraq, said in a statement passed on to UPI by Phillips. “We specifically noted that Hunt was interested in evaluating petroleum opportunities. We did not seek advice as to whether or not Hunt should proceed with an exploration contract, and we were never advised not to do so."

State Department spokesman Tom Casey, when asked Sept. 28 if there were any meetings, said, “I’m not sure how much contact there was between the company and officials, either in Baghdad or here.

“Our public and private advice to any company anywhere in the world, regardless of who’s running it or who’s on the board … we don’t think that these kinds of deals are helpful,” he said, a message that jives more with the department communication than McDonald’s recap of the meeting.

Ray Hunt is no ordinary Texan. He’s known as a maverick, the first foreigner to set up shop in Yemen, and now entering the unknown but highly prospective world of Iraqi Kurdistan oil. He’s donated $75,000 over the past two years to Republican Party fundraising committees and $35 million to the George W. Bush presidential library at Southern Methodist University.

He also sits on the National Petroleum Council, an industry advisory board to the secretary of energy, and the president’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, whose members the president selects to advise him “concerning the quality and adequacy of intelligence collection, of analysis and estimates, of counterintelligence, and of other intelligence activities,” according to the White House Web site.

This connection has raised concerns of at least two members of Congress. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, a candidate for his party’s presidential nod, decried the deal nearly immediately and called for an investigation.

Rep. Edward Markey, D-Mass., has sent a letter to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice demanding answers to a dozen questions, including:

“Are you concerned that the involvement of such a high-level adviser to the president in this contract will create the impression that the negation between Hunt and the Kurdish government was sanctioned by you, or, indeed, by the president himself?”

“The White House has had no contact with Hunt Oil. I'm not aware of any contacts between Hunt Oil and other offices,” White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe told UPI. “This was a private transaction."

Phillips, the Hunt vice president, said neither Ray Hunt nor any other official met with any other branches of the U.S. government.

“I know for a fact he hasn’t talked to anyone himself in the government prior to this deal being signed,” she said. “We just don’t, as a matter of policy, we don’t pick up the phone, regardless of what people might imagine, we just don’t pick up the phone and ask permission to drill oil.”

United Press International - International Security - Energy - Analysis

Iraq's ex-oil chief accuses Kurds of suspect contract

An Iraqi oil minister under executed dictator Saddam Hussein accused the Kurdistan Regional Government of awarding an oil contract last month to a US company for areas outside its territorial control.

In an interview published in the latest edition of the Middle East Economic Survey, Jordan-based Issam Chalabi said the production-sharing contract signed with Hunt Oil will cause more friction between the Baghdad government and the Kurdish authorities.

Baghdad has already criticised the Kurdish authorities for signing deals with international oil companies before the federal oil law has been approved.

If confirmed, the latest development would suggest the KRG may have broader political ambitions for control of oil and gas in the disputed areas adjacent to its territory in northern Iraq, said Chalabi.

The Hunt deal covers four structures in Blocks 6, 7 and 8 - Jabal Kand, Fajir, Nerjis and Ain-Sifni - in the Dahuk area in the northwest of the KRG region, he said. The Kurdish authorities have released no specific details of the deal.

Chalabi, who held the Iraqi oil portfolio from 1987 to 1990, said "the first three structures fall outside the jurisdiction of the KRG, in the Nineveh governorate."

He told MEES that Hunt's signing with the KRG for terrain outside its three governorates of Dahuk, Arbil and Sulaimaniyah would have negative legal and political implications.

"This will be considered a very serious matter from a political point of view between the central government and the KRG," he said, adding that this was especially true since Hunt Oil is a US company.

The former minister said his suspicions about the Hunt agreement were raised because, in contrast to other awards made by the KRG, no information about the blocks concerned or their location was announced by the Kurdish authorities.

Speaking in general terms about Kurdish contracts with international oil companies, Chalabi said he supported the Iraqi government's denouncement of the contracts as illegal.

"I think they are absolutely right, because even if you go to the constitution it says in Article 111 that oil and gas are the property of all the Iraqi people.

"This means agreements ought to be signed by the only body that represents those Iraqi people, and in the absence of an oil law that gives particular authorisation to anyone else, it must be only the central government that has the right to sign these contracts," he said.

Iraq's ex-oil chief accuses Kurds of suspect contract - Yahoo! News

Ishiba clarifies remark on Japan oil used for Iraq operations

Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Friday denied sharing an opposition lawmaker's suspicion that oil provided by Japan may have been used for U.S. operations in Iraq without a legal basis, trying to clarify his remarks in parliament Thursday.

"I was not trying to say I'm aware of a problem regarding oil misuse," Ishiba told a press conference, referring to his remarks over Japan's refueling in 2003 of the U.S. Aegis destroyer Paul Hamilton, which may have been involved in operations in Iraq. Ishiba said what he meant about the problem is that the government must carefully confirm whether oil provided by Japan is used only for U.S.-led antiterrorism operations in and near Afghanistan in compliance with a special law that authorizes the refueling mission in the Indian Ocean.

Japan Today - News - Ishiba clarifies remark on Japan oil used for Iraq operations