Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Crude Oil Trades Near $83 a Barrel on Turkish-Kurdish Tensions

Crude oil traded near $83 a barrel amid concerns that Turkey may invade Iraq, home to the world's third-largest oil reserves, to quell Kurdish rebels.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan told reporters his country would pursue the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, regardless of diplomatic costs, according to an Agence France- Presse report. Northern Iraq holds some of its largest oil fields, including Kirkuk, the source of much of Iraq's exports.

``There's some war-mongering to put the fear back into the market,'' said Kevin Blemkin, a broker at MF Global Ltd. in London. ``Turkey could try to attack rebels in Kurdistan, possibly effecting oil pipelines.''

Crude oil for November delivery rose as much as 39 cents to $83.47 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $82.12 a barrel, up 4 cents, at 1:14 p.m. in London.

Oil gained 2.2 percent yesterday, its biggest gain this month, after the U.S. Energy Department reported at unexpected fall in crude stockpiles last week. Prices peaked at $83.67 a barrel, 23 cents shy of the Sept. 20 record of $83.90.

Saudi Arabia has the world's largest reserves of crude, followed by Iran and Iraq. Iraq produced 2.075 million barrels of crude oil a day in September, according to Bloomberg estimates.

Brent crude oil for November settlement traded at $80.06 a barrel on London's ICE Futures exchange at 1:19 p.m. local time.

Tropical depression 15 in the Atlantic is forecast to remain several hundreds miles away from the U.S. coastline next week, posing little threat to oil installations. A two-day oil workers strike in Nigeria was called off yesterday without affecting exports from Africa's largest oil producer.

Bloomberg.com: Energy

Resigning of al-Mosul Governor

Duraid Kashmola, al-Mosul Governor announced his resignation today from his job, because of the security descent in the city.

In a press conference, Kashmola told the reporters that he is going to resign because of the security descent, the indifferent of the security ministries to the demands of the governorate and the incapability in achieving peace and security in it.

PUKmedia :: English - Resigning of al-Mosul Governor

Turkey Ready to Face Criticism over Iraq

Turkey is prepared to pay the diplomatic price for any attack on Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq, the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said today.

Amid fears that a Turkish incursion would destabilise one of the few relatively peaceful regions in Iraq, Mr. Erdogan said the government was becoming impatient after a series of rebel attacks, and was making preparations in case a cross-border strike was deemed necessary.

"There could be pros and cons of such a decision but what is important is our country's interests," Mr. Erdogan told reporters in response to a question about the international repercussions of such a decision.

PUKmedia :: English - Turkey Ready to Face Criticism over Iraq

Turkey won't wait for US permission for Iraq strike

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Friday he would not wait for US permission to order Turkish armed forces to cross into Iraq to fight Kurdish rebels. The United States had asked no one in the run-up to its own invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Dogan news agency quoted hiom as saying.

"Without asking for permission or receiving it, the US travelled thousands of kilometres to hit Iraq. No one should give us any advice(on a cross-border operation)," Erdogan said.

In addition to dismissing statements from US officials who have advised Turkey not to launch a cross-border operation to wipe out Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) bases in northern Iraq, Erdogan also accused European politicians of hypocrisy on the PKK issue.

"I condemn (those in Europe) who say 'the PKK is a terrorist organization, but...'," he said. "There are no 'buts' in this issue."

The Turkish parliament is expected to vote next week on a resolution giving permission for the armed forces to launch a wide-scale cross-border operation to attack PKK bases.

While the resolution is expected to pass easily, it is not clear when or if Turkish forces would actually launch such an operation.

Washington fears that such an operation could lead to unrest and fighting in Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq, the one area of Iraq which is relatively calm.

Earlier on Friday one Turkish soldier was killed and two injured in a landmine blast in the south-eastern province of Sirnak. The mine is believed to have been planted by the PKK.

More than two dozen people, soldiers and civilians, have been killed by the PKK in the past two weeks generating enormous outrage from politicians and the Turkish media.

The Raw Story | Turkey won't wait for US permission for Iraq strike

Iraq's Finance Minister is visiting Syria soon to resolve unsettled issues

Iraqi Minister of Finance will be visiting Syria soon to solve the financial problems between the two countries after many Iraqis escalated their demands of $ 120 million from the Syrians and also Syria demanding Iraqis of half a billion dollars, as the Ministries of Finance in each of the two countries had signed an agreement years ago, according to which the Syrian Commercial Bank returned Iraqi blocked assets (about 160) million dollars to the Iraqi government.

Dr. Ratib Al-Shallah, Chairman of the Syrian Federation of Trade Chambers, said in a statement that no amounts paid to Syrian exporters, who delivered goods to Iraq during the oil-for-food phase, and that news of funds being transferred to the Commercial Bank of Syria are incorrect. He added that the important thing now is to solve the unsettled financial accounts because that would make trade relations more transparent and based on a white sheet of paper because the existence such unsettled accounts would cause confused relations.

Dr. Mohamed Al-Hussein, Minister of Finance, called for the need to address this issue between officials of the two countries during the latest visit of Al-Maliki to Damascus, in order to ensure better relations and make way for new trade deals between the two countries and on solid foundations, adding that in all cases the interests of the two countries is to speed up the settlement of those financial problems.

http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=4713

Turkish Tanks Attack Iraq

Turkish tanks and artillery have begun shelling suspected PKK guerrilla positions in towns and villages in Kurdish Northern Iraq. An incursion and possible outright invasion now seems imminent. A Turkish army almost the size of the American occupation forces, some 140,000 Turkish troops are poised on the Iraqi border waiting for Parliamentary approval which is likely to come next week. If the Turks are to invade it will have to be soon, before the mountains separating the countries become impassable with Winter snow.

The US and Iraqi governments have vehemently opposed the idea and have no forces left capable of dealing with the turmoil that will ensue in the previously relatively calm north. However, Ankara looks likely to ignore the appeals of the US and Iraq, if there is no viable alternative offered to control the PKK guerrillas. Some 4,000 of these fighters who struggle for independence of the Kurdish region of Turkey are suspected of hiding in safe havens in Kurdish Iraq from where they cross the border to engage Turkish forces in hit and run attacks. An attack near the Iraqi border in which 13 Turkish troops were killed has sparked the recent crisis. However, there has been a steady and massive build up of Turkish forces since Spring this year. The Turks fear that the increasing autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan will become independent and thereby act as a magnet for Kurds in Turkey to split away and unify with their brethren across the border.

Any all out invasion will create total warfare in Iraq with every province beginning in a state of civil war or insurgency. The Turks will face massive opposition from Kurdish troops and people and they will find themselves in an unwinnable impasse like the USA. With Kurdish minorities also resitive in the other bordering states of Iran and Syria such a move threatens to create a volcano that could potentially result in the redrawing of the map of the Middle East.

Turkish Tanks Attack Iraq

The most prominent jihadist factions in Iraq unite Politically

In a new step affirms the conviction of the factions of the Iraqi resistance to the need to close ranks and to unite as a strategic option to achieve the aims to liberate Iraq and to preserve the unity and the Arab and Islamic affiliation, Yesterday was announced the formation of “The Political Council of The Iraqi Resistance”, which included the most prominent jihadist factions of resistance to the occupation and who support them.

HAQ agency- exclusive

In a new step affirms the conviction of the factions of the Iraqi resistance to the need to close ranks and to unite as a strategic option to achieve the aims to liberate Iraq and to preserve the unity and the Arab and Islamic affiliation, Yesterday was announced the formation of “The Political Council of The Iraqi Resistance”, which included the most prominent jihadist factions of resistance to the occupation and who support them.

In the first statement for the formed factions, which HAQ news agency got a copy from it, said that with the first days of the occupation, the valiant heroes stop to defend the religion, land, honor and respond to deter criminals and enemies, and this blessed march will not stop only after cleaning Iraq from all the forms of occupation.

And the blessed steps between jihad factions continue to convergence, coordination and cooperation on the goodness, including this advanced step, “where we met in Baghdad (22-Shaaban 1428 H, 4-9-2007): -

1-Jihad and Reform Front with its four groups:
A-Islamic Army in Iraq;
B-Mujahedeen Army;
C-Ansar al-Sunna group "legitimate council"
D-al-Fatheen Army

2-The Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas _ Iraq)

3-Islamic Front for the Iraqi Resistance (Jama)
And the statement added that "We agreed on the formation of (Political Council of The Iraqi Resistance)."

The establishment statement confirmed that the political program includes a number of basic principles Which is “the occupation of Iraq is injustice and aggression, and is religiously and legally unacceptable, and resistance to the occupation is guaranteed by all divine laws and that there is no legitimacy for any Constitution or system or government or law signed under occupation and that Iraq is part and integral part of the Arab and Islamic nations, and working to establish the identity of Iraq as an Arabic and Islamic country is the most important of our priorities”.

http://76news.net/eng/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=439&Item id=2

Inventories and Iraq Put Oil Price Under Pressure

Unexpected U.S. crude oil inventory figures have put crude oil prices again under pressure. Statements coming from the U.S. Department of Energy’s statistical arm, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), have shown that U.S. fuel inventories have dropped sharply.

The latter figures have resulted in fear in the market that there could be a major supply crunch this winter for the American market. The latter situation could also be the case for other Western markets, but no facts have yet emerged showing this. The International Energy Agency has, however, indicated that Western crude stock levels have been at their lowest level in the last five years.

The EIA has reported that U.S. crude oil stockpiles have decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week to their lowest level since January 2007. Based on OPEC production developments, main market analysts were expecting stocks to increase by 900,000 barrels last week. Even though market fundamentals were already showing a conflict between data provided and developments in OPEC and non-OPEC producers, analysts kept their optimism.

The EIA figures now have shown that market developments are still very negative. American sources have reported that supplies of distillates have declined by 600,000 barrels last week, while heating oil stockpiles rose 1 million barrels. Gasoline supplies rose 1.7 million barrels.

Contradicting statements are still being made by most consultancies, such as the International Energy Agency, the energy watchdog of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, which stated that it has cut its fourth quarter demand growth estimate by 320,000 barrels per day to 2.03 million bpd. The main reason for the contradictory move has been based on the agency’s assessment that high crude oil prices will force consumers to substitute oil for natural gas.

The IEA also stated that the continuing weakening of the U.S. dollar will have an upward effect on crude prices. Oil analysts have reported that taking all into account, the EIA report is a validation of the IEA report, which concluded that crude inventories held by the 30 nations of the OECD fell by 21 million barrels in August to 2.66 billion barrels - 70.4 million barrels lower than last year.

As has been stated before, the production increase by OPEC of around 500,000 bpd in November has not resulted in a cool-down of the market. After some initial positive effects, the OPEC move has now been assessed as not substantial at all. The move in Saudi Arabia to increase its exports by 10% in the coming days also has been taken onboard as cosmetic.

Crude oil prices have shot up to levels above $83 per barrel as other discerning news emerged at the same time. Turkish threats to start a major military operation in Iraq’s Kurdistan, largely to destroy the military bases of the Turkish-Kurdish rebels of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), could result in a major destabilization of the whole region.

Turkish military operations have been halted the last two years, as the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq has prevented this to happen. PKK forces have been able to feel rather safe in Iraq’s Kurdistan, which has become a defacto independent region, ruled by Kurdish parties that are still part of the Baghdad government. American officials have warned that they will not allow Turkish forces to enter Iraq to quell PKK operations the next months.

A major political confrontation already has been brewing between Ankara and Washington, as Turkish generals have been preparing to invade Iraq openly. At the same time, a U.S. House of Representatives vote on the Armenian issue has ended in a declaration that the killings of hundreds of thousands of Armenians by Turkey at the end of World War I was genocide, putting additional oil on the fire.

The coming months will continue to be volatile, as crude oil does not seem to be heading to a slowdown. Price levels will keep high, as market fundamentals only show a tendency for further constraints.

Resource Investor - Energy - Inventories and Iraq Put Oil Price Under Pressure

PKK claims it has left Iraq as Erdogan talks tough on invasion

The main Kurdish rebel group, the PKK, tried to deflect a Turkish attack on its bases in northern Iraq by claiming yesterday it was redeploying into Turkey.

Such a redeployment would remove the main reason for the Turkish government to mount a cross-border attack into Iraqi Kurdistan; but Ankara is likely to treat the statement with scepticism.

The US was yesterday trying to persuade Turkey against military action that could destabilise one of the few relatively peaceful regions in Iraq. But the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, kept up the rhetoric, claiming Turkey was ready to pay any price for a military incursion, including jeopardising US relations.

The Turkish parliament is set to vote next week on an attack. The government and military want to move against PKK bases because of the rising death toll from attacks. The PKK, classed as a terrorist group by the US and EU, is fighting for autonomy for Turkey's Kurds.

Reflecting the deterioration in US-Turkish relations this week, Mr Erdogan said Turkey did not need Washington's permission to attack PKK bases. "Did they (the US) seek permission from anyone when they came from a distance of 10,000km and hit Iraq?" he said.

"We are making necessary preparations to be ready in case we decide on a cross-border operation, since we don't have patience to lose more time."

The PKK statement taunted the Turkish government by insisting it would still attack government targets, including politicians. But it portrayed its offensive as Turkish rather than Iraqi-based: "The source of this war is in north Kurdistan [eastern Turkey] ... the guerrillas are not moving to the south [northern Iraq]; they are moving to ... places in the north."

US-Turkish relations have been strained by a Congressional resolution this week portraying the killing of up to 1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman Turks between 1915 and 1917 as genocide. The resolution has been passed by a House of Representatives committee and is due to go to a full vote of the House and Senate. As well as an attack into Iraq, Turkey could deny the US use of its ports and air space.

PKK claims it has left Iraq as Erdogan talks tough on invasion | The Guardian | Guardian Unlimited

Lawmakers says State Department blocks Iraq info

Four U.S. congressional committee chairmen on Friday accused the State Department of suppressing information about corruption inside Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government.

In a letter to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, the four senior Democrats said endemic corruption was fuelling the Iraqi insurgency, endangering U.S. troops and undermining their chances of success.

California Rep. Henry Waxman of the House of Representatives oversight committee; California Rep. Tom Lantos of the foreign affairs committee; Missouri Rep. Ike Skelton of the armed services committee and Wisconsin Rep. David Obey of the appropriations panel said the State Department was stonewalling their attempts to get at the truth.

"The refusal of State Department officials to answer questions about the extent of corruption in the government of Iraq undermines our ability to work together to eliminate this source of support for the insurgency," said the letter.

"The American people and Congress deserve honest answers about the extent of corruption in the Maliki government and whether corruption is fuelling the insurgency and endangering our troops."

The State Department rejected the lawmakers' claims.

"I don't think ... we're trying to hide any basic facts," spokesman Tom Casey told reporters.

The letter referred to a congressional hearing last week in which a former Iraqi judge said government corruption was "rampant" and cost tens of billions of dollars.

The State Department representative at the hearing only responded to questions that portrayed the Iraqi government positively, the letter said, promising to answer others in a classified format.

The lawmakers said the State Department instructed officials last month not to answer questions in public about the Iraqi government's performance or its ability to tackle corruption.

Casey said there was nothing wrong with officials saying they would only discuss classified, confidential information behind closed doors.

The department also retroactively made secret two reports on corruption that had been widely distributed as "sensitive but unclassified," the letter said.

"The wholesale and even retroactive classification of all information is wrong and a misuse of the official classification procedures," wrote the lawmakers.

Casey said the department would see if more information could be released publicly with sensitive portions redacted.

The State Department is at loggerheads with several congressional committees over a range of issues, including the conduct of its lead security contractor in Iraq, Blackwater, which is under investigation over a shooting incident on September 16 in which 17 Iraqis were killed.


Lawmakers says State Department blocks Iraq info - Yahoo! News UK