Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Nechirvan Barzani: We Will not Allow the use of our Territory for Attacking Neighboring Countries

KRG PM, Nechirvan Barzani called for a political solution to the issue of PKK in Turkey, stressing that this issue can not be solved through military option.

KRG PM, in statements to al-Jazeera satellite channel yesterday said: “We, as KRG will not allow our territory, or any part of Iraq, to be used for launching attacks against any neighboring state.”

“PKK is not only a problem for Turkey, but it caused us problems in the past. It is not true that we take advantage of the problem of PKK, but our view is that as long as this problem can not be solved by war we should search for a political solution. " He added.

Barzani said: “We are very sorry about the death of 13 Turkish soldiers, and we condemn this incident, which did not help in solving the problem. The problem becomes more complicated, whenever more blood was shed. We must put an end to this violence.”

“Turkish politicians have to change their thinking on this issue and find a new solution to the problem of PKK. While PKK says in many occasions that they are ready for a political settlement, we have to try to find a peaceful solution with Turkey and all the other sides.” He said as well.

KRG PM criticized the Iraqi federal government because it had not consulted KRG before the signing of the security agreement with Turkey in last September.

PUKmedia :: English - Nechirvan Barzani: We Will not Allow the use of our Territory for Attacking Neighboring Countries

Oil bursts through $85 a barrel

Oil prices burst through $85 a barrel to reach new highs today on the back of growing energy demand forecasts and fears that escalating conflict between Turkey and Kurds in northern Iraq could hit supplies in the Mediterranean.

Crude ended at a record level on Friday but has since gone on to hit even greater peaks of $85.19 as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) said demand for its products would average 31.43m barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2007, up 100,000 barrels a day on previous estimates.

"It now appears more likely that the US economy could weather the financial crisis without a sharp downturn in economic activity," said a report by Opec economists at the group's Vienna headquarters.

Soaring oil prices helped push gold to a 28-year high today as investors were attracted to precious metals because of global uncertainty and the falling dollar. Platinum also swept to record highs on concerns about supply as demand remains strong.

Expectations of higher oil demand have also fed into Opec's first quarter estimates with the organisation predicting there would be 120,000 more barrels needed a day than had been anticipated.

The new forecasts come amid rising fears that Turkey will take unilateral action against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq. "The main risk to supplies is currently on an escalation of the Turkish army, Kurdish militia conflict, where we believe the risk for disruptions to the Mediterranean supplies would be real," said Olivier Jakob of Petromix in Switzerland.

The market is already jumpy because last week the International Energy Agency, adviser to 26 industrialised nations such as Britain and the US, predicted that demand would surge by 2.1m barrels a day during 2008. Opec insists "the current supply and demand forecasts predict that the market will be fundamentally balanced over the coming quarters".

Oil bursts through $85 a barrel | | Guardian Unlimited Business

Exploring for oil spoils in Iraq

The quickening pace of oil deals between Kurdish regional leaders and foreign companies is another sign that Iraq is spinning out of control and the Bush administration has no idea how to stop it.

President George W. Bush set enactment of a national oil law that centralizes development and ensures an equitable division of the profits as a key benchmark of progress. Iraq's leaders, who have little interest in equity or reconciliation, have blithely ignored it. So the Kurds have taken matters into their own hands, signing nine legally questionable exploration deals with foreign companies.

The administration has complained that the deals "needlessly elevated tensions" between the Kurds and the central government. But it apparently hasn't leaned very hard on the one American oil company involved, Hunt Oil of Dallas, which has close ties to the White House.
Iraq's oil ministry, meanwhile, has warned that the contracts will be either ignored or considered illegal.

We cannot blame the Kurds for wanting to get on with exploiting their region's lucrative oil deposits for energy and for profit. While the rest of Iraq is convulsed in violence and politically paralyzed, the Kurdish-administered northeast is the one relatively peaceful region, with functioning schools and government, a separate army and booming business.

The oil contracts, however, are a dangerous attempt to establish facts on the ground, fanning even more distrust and resentment. The Sunnis, many of whom live in areas without any oil resources, fear they will get shut out completely from the country's oil wealth. The Shiite-dominated government suspects that the Kurds are looking for the resources to secede from Iraq. Any sign that Iraq is about to break up will encourage even more dangerous meddling by neighboring Turkey and Iran.

The Kurds agreed to a carefully constructed compromise national draft oil law last February and insist they remain committed to sharing oil revenues with the rest of the country. But as The New York Times' James Glanz reported last month, the compromise appears to have collapsed in an ever more bitter struggle among the Shiite-led government in Baghdad and the Sunnis - who both insist on a strong central government role in letting contracts and running the oil fields - and the Kurds, who demand more regional control.

Foreign oil companies are so eager for profits that they don't seem worried about whether the deals are legally binding or how they may contribute to Iraq's chaos.

The White House needs to send a clearer warning to these companies - American and foreign - about the dangers of their course. It should also urge the companies to bring their own pressure on Iraqi officials to adopt a law that ensures that whatever system emerges is transparent, accountable and profitable for all Iraqis. Ignoring that is a recipe for continued chaos.

Exploring for oil spoils in Iraq - International Herald Tribune

Opinion Piece

Al Qaeda in Iraq Said to Be Defeated

Oct. 15, 2007 (Pensito Review delivered by Newstex) -- This appears to be The U.S. military believes it has dealt devastating and perhaps irreversible blows to al-Qaeda in Iraq [AQI] in recent months, leading some generals to advocate a declaration of victory over the group, which the Bush administration has long described as the most lethal U.S. adversary in Iraq. Of course, it could be White House propaganda to seed good news into the media, however one of the reporters, Thomas Ricks, is the author of "Fiasco," a book on the Bush administration's disastrous war planning. And while the defeat of bin Laden's franchise group in Iraq is good news for Iraqis and U.S. troops, it is not necessarily a positive development for war advocates, including Pres. George W. Bush who has used AQI as a bogeyman to prolong the fight -- as he did in July, addressing a pro-war group in South "It's hard to argue that Al Qaeda in Iraq is separate from bin Laden's Al Qaeda when the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq took an oath of allegiance to Osama bin Laden," Mr. Bush said, referring to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a leader of the affiliated group in Iraq who was killed last year. Mr. Bush called the two similarly named groups "an alliance of killers," and said, "No enemy is more ruthless in Iraq than Al Qaeda"... "We'll stay on the hunt, we'll deny them safe haven, and we will defeat them where they have made their stand," he said. "However difficult the fight is in Iraq, we must win it. And we can win it." It is possible that news about the defeat of AQI is the first step in a strategy by the administration to declare victory in Iraq and get out.

The views expressed on blogs distributed by Newstex and its re-distributors ("Blogs via Newstex") are solely the author's and not necessarily the views of Newstex or its re-distributors.

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Turkish government draws up motion for Iraq incursion

Turkey moved a step closer Monday to a possible incursion in Iraq as the government drew up a motion seeking parliament's approval for military action against Kurd rebel bases there, de****e US opposition.

"We have decided to send the motion to parliament today," Deputy Prime Minister Cemil Cicek told reporters after a cabinet meeting, adding that the house was expected to vote on the measure this week.

Ankara hopes it will not be forced to resort to military action, Cicek said.
"We hope that there will be no reason to use the authorisation, we hope there will be no need for that," he said.

The motion seeks a one-year authorisation for a military operation in northern Iraq, where an estimated 3,500 rebels of the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) are based.

Parliament is expected to approve the measure, but a top Turkish military commander said it was too early to speculate on the timing of any cross-border operation.

"We will look at the season, the requirements and other aspects. But it is impossible to say anything right now," the deputy head of the general staff, General Ergin Saygun, told the CNN-Turk news channel.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinted last week that military action was unlikely to be immediate.

"It does not mean that everything will happen once we have the authorisation," he said. "We want to have the authorisation in hand so we can decide swiftly when it becomes necessary."

The United States has repeatedly urged Turkey against such action.
Turkey says it has no other option because neither Washington nor Baghdad are helping end the safe haven that Ankara insists the PKK enjoys in northern Iraq.

Ties between the two NATO allies took a fresh blow last week when the US House Foreign Affairs Committee endorsed a bill branding the Ottoman massacres of Armenians during World War I as genocide.

The army said at the weekend that it had shelled Iraqi territory after PKK rebels attacked a Turkish military outpost with rockets and gunfire from across the border.

Mounting violence by the PKK, listed as a terrorist group by Turkey and much of the international community including the United States, has increased the pressure on Erdogan to take tougher measures against the rebels.

Ankara says the PKK enjoys free movement in northern Iraq and obtains weapons and explosives there for attacks inside Turkey.

It has accused the Iraqi Kurds, who run the region, of tolerating and even supporting the rebels.

Turkish criticism of Washington increased recently after it emerged that US weapons given to Iraq had ended up in PKK hands.

Turkey and Iraq signed an accord last month to combat the PKK but failed to agree on a clause allowing Turkish troops to engage in "hot pursuit" -- as they did regularly in the 1990s -- against rebels fleeing into Iraqi territory.

Observers here also doubt that the embattled Baghdad government, which has virtually no authority over northern Iraq, can cajole the Iraqi Kurds into action against the PKK.

The PKK has waged a bloody campaign for Kurdish self-rule in southeast Turkey since 1984 in a conflict that has claimed more than 37,000 lives.

Turkish government draws up motion for Iraq incursion - Yahoo! News UK

Turkey mulls letting troops enter northern Iraq

Turkey's cabinet asked parliament on Monday for permission to launch an attack on Kurdish separatists in northern Iraq that Washington fears could sow chaos in one of the most peaceful areas of the wartorn country.

Government spokesman Cemil Cicek said Turkey still hoped military action against the Kurds, who use the mountainous region as base for attacks inside Turkey, would not be needed.

"But the most painful reality of our country, our region, is the reality of terror," he told a news conference.

He said the motion, which parliament is expected to approve on Wednesday, would be valid for one year and would allow multiple cross-border operations.

The United States has urged restraint on Turkey, a key NATO ally on the fringes of the Middle East. But Washington's influence in Ankara is being severely undermined by a U.S. Congressional move to brand as genocide the mass killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915.

The lira fell more than 2 percent against the dollar on Monday on fears of military action. Ankara's tough rhetoric has also helped drive global oil prices higher in recent days. Oil zoomed to an all-time high above $85 a barrel on Monday.

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's centre-right government is under heavy public pressure to act after a series of attacks on Turkish troops by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which seeks an independent homeland in eastern Turkey.

CRITICISM OF BAGHDAD

Cicek said Turkey's sole target, if its troops entered northern Iraq, would be the PKK militants, about 3,000 of whom are believed to be hiding there.

Cicek repeated criticism of Iraq's failure, de****e Turkish pressure, to take action against the PKK on its territory. An Iraqi deputy state minister would hold talks in Ankara with Turkish officials on Tuesday.

In the text of the motion, seen by Reuters, the government states continued commitment to Iraq's territorial integrity and defends its right under international law to send troops across the border as an act of self-defence.

Turkey's powerful military, the second largest in NATO, has long called for permission to chase PKK rebels into Iraq, where it says they are allowed to operate with impunity.

A top general said on Monday it was too early to discuss the exact timing or scale of a possible operation against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq.
"If this duty (Iraqi incursion) is assigned to us, we will look at the scale on which it will be carried out. It is not possible to say this right now," deputy chief of General Staff, General Ergin Saygun told reporters.

Turkey mulls letting troops enter northern Iraq - Yahoo! News UK

US, Iraq debate Blackwater expulsion

Baghdad: US and Iraqi officials are negotiating Baghdad's demand that security company Blackwater USA be expelled from the country within six months, and American diplomats appear to be working on how to fill the security gap if the company is phased out.

The talks about Blackwater's future in Iraq flow from recommendations in an Iraqi government report on the incident Sept. 16 when, Iraqi officials determined, Blackwater guards opened fire without provocation in Baghdad's Nisoor Square and killed 17 Iraqi citizens.

The Iraqi investigators issued five recommendations to the government of Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki, which has since sent them to the US Embassy as demands for action.

Point No. 2 in the report says: "The Iraqi government should demand that the United States stops using the services of Blackwater in Iraq within six months and replace it with a new, more disciplined organization that would be answerable to Iraqi laws."

Sami Al Askari, a top aide to Al Maliki, said that point in the Iraqi list of demands was nonnegotiable.

"I believe the government has been clear. There have been attacks on the lives of Iraqi citizens on the part of that company (Blackwater). It must be expelled. The government

has given six months for its expulsion and it's left to the US Embassy to determine with Blackwater when to terminate the contract. The American administration must find another company," he told AP.

In talks between American diplomats and the Al Maliki government, Al Askari said, the US side was not "insisting on Blackwater staying." He was the only Iraqi or American official who would allow use of his name, others said information they gave was too sensitive.

In an interview to be broadcast Monday on PBS, television presenter Charlie Rose asked Blackwater chief Erik Prince about the issue.

"We'll do what we're told and, you know, make the transition as smooth as possible," Prince said.

Gulfnews: US, Iraq debate Blackwater expulsion

Iraq urges Turkey to solve crisis through diplomacy

Iraq's government urged Turkey on Monday not to resort to military action and to seek a diplomatic solution to end attacks by Kurdish separatists in northern Iraq.

Turkey's cabinet asked parliament on Monday for permission to launch cross-border operations on the separatists, who use the mountainous north of Iraq as a base for attacks in Turkey.

"The Iraqi government calls on the Turkish government to pursue a diplomatic solution and not a military solution to solve the (problem) of terrorist attacks which our dear neighbour Turkey has witnessed from the PKK," said Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh.

Dabbagh urged Turkey to be "wise and patient" and noted the security accord the two neighbours signed late last month.

Under the accord, Iraq and Turkey pledged to take all necessary measures, including financial and intelligence, to combat the PKK and other militant groups. They will hold meetings every six months to coordinate their work.

"The Iraqi government is making continuous efforts not to allow any group which threatens security in the region to be present on Iraqi soil," Dabbagh said.

However, Iraq has also said its own security forces are too stretched tackling insurgents elsewhere in the country to be sent to tackle the PKK.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L15644328.htm

Iraqi Kurds ask Turkey for negotiation

Kurdish leaders in Iraq vowed to increase efforts to stop Kurdish militants from provoking an attack by Turkey, KUNA reported Monday.

"As a government of Kurdistan region, we will not allow our soil or Iraqi land to be used in launching attacks on any neighboring country," Nechirvan Barzani, prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, said in a statement to Turkish leaders.

Barzani, who urged all sides to seek a political solution, apologized to Turkey for the deaths last week of 13 Turkish soldiers killed by Kurdish PKK militants, KUNA reported Monday.

"We condemn this incident," Barzani said. "The more blood is shed, the more the problem becomes complicated."

The Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan, or PKK, is an armed group founded in the 1970s to create an independent so******t Kurdish state from land in southeastern Turkey, northeastern Iraq, northeastern Syria and northwestern Iran.

Meanwhile, The New Anatolian in Ankara reported Monday the PKK is trying to provoke the Turkish army into a full-scale attack in northern Iraq while the United States and the European Union remain opposed to Turkey crossing the border.

Turkish military leaders say the PKK's escalating rocket attacks can only be halted by an incursion deep into Iraqi territory, the New Anatolian reported.

Iraqi Kurds ask Turkey for negotiation : World

Kirkuk Oil Inventory At Ceyhan At 7.98 Million Bbl - Shipper

Total inventory of Iraqi Kirkuk crude oil available at the Turkish export terminal of Ceyhan stood at 7.98 million barrels at 10:30 a.m. local time Monday, a shipping agent said.

The shipping agent gave no update on the current flow rate of oil along the pipeline, although in recent days oil has flowed at 3,000 cubic meters an hour, a rate which equates to around 472,000 barrels a day.

Exports of Kirkuk oil have been sporadic in recent years as sabotage and technical problems have mostly idled the pipeline to Ceyhan since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003. When the line is out of action, Iraq has to rely on exports from a Basra terminal.

Before the invasion, Iraq used to export between 700,000 and 800,000 barrels a day from the north via the Ceyhan port.

But the resumption of exports from Iraq over the last two months has seen tenders issued for more than 12 million barrels from Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization, or SOMO, according to Dow Jones Newswires estimates.

While Mediterranean crude market participants await further news on the possibility of Turkish troop movements into northern Iraq, fears of a Turkish incursion pushed crude oil futures prices to fresh highs earlier in the trading session.

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