Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Deadly artillery battle in oil-rich Iraqi area
Mahdi militia fires mortars at U.S., Polish, Iraqi forces in southern town

BAGHDAD - Shiite militiamen fired mortars at two military bases and shot at a Polish helicopter south of Baghdad during clashes Monday that killed as many as five Iraqi civilians, including two children, and wounded 20, officials said.

The Polish Defense Ministry said two Polish soldiers suffered minor injuries.

The fighting in Diwaniyah, a mainly Shiite city about 80 miles south of Baghdad, began when fighters from the Mahdi Army militia fired four mortar rounds at the main U.S. and Polish base and nine rounds at a patrol base manned mainly by Iraqis and Polish troops, an Iraqi military official said.

Deadly battle in oil-rich Iraq area - Conflict in Iraq - MSNBC.com

Oil Trades Above $86 After Rising on Turkey-Iraq Border Tension

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded above $86 a barrel after rising to a record yesterday on concern oil shipments may be disrupted if Turkish forces pursue Kurdish militants in Iraq.

Prices climbed as much as 3 percent yesterday after Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan formally asked lawmakers to sanction military action against rebels based in Iraq, holder of the world's third-largest oil reserves. Oil also gained as the dollar fell to a two-week low against the euro and U.S. equities declined the most in two months.

This is something that Turkey has probably wanted to do for a long time,'' said Tom Hartmann, commodity broker at Altavest ********* Trading Inc. in Mission Viejo, California. ``You have the weak dollar, and concerns about the U.S. economy, and that is just spilling into the buying of commodities.''

Crude oil for November delivery was at $86.35 a barrel, up 22 cents, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:30 a.m. in Sydney.

The contract settled $2.44, or 2.9 percent higher, at $86.13 yesterday. It reached $86.71, the highest since being introduced in 1983.

``The market is looking for any excuse to move higher,'' Brad Samples, commodity analyst for Summit Energy Services Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky, said yesterday. ``Eventually this speculative move will exhaust itself because the fundamentals don't justify these prices. There's plenty of supply.''

Turkish lawmakers have been asked to approve legislation allowing the military to launch attacks on bases of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, during the next year. Last week, Erdogan said there were no plans for immediate action.

Northern Iraq

Iraq's oil-rich northern region is controlled by a semi- autonomous Kurdish administration. Oil pipelines run through southern Turkey where many of the PKK attacks have occurred.

The risk to oil supplies from a Turkish attack ``most likely is far less than the market is pricing in,'' Altavest's Hartmann said. ``It's not really a win-win for either of these parties to get into a tit-for-tat bombing of infrastructure.''

Today's intraday high passed the previous all-time inflation- adjusted record reached in 1981 when Iran cut oil exports. The cost of oil used by U.S. refiners averaged $37.48 a barrel in March 1981, according to the Energy Department, or $84.73 in today's dollars.

Crude-oil and other commodities also rose because the U.S. dollar declined against the euro, enhancing their appeal as an investment. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 0.8 percent to 1,548.71 yesterday after Citigroup Inc., the largest U.S. bank, said loan defaults will plague the financial industry for the rest of the year.

Currency Impact

``You don't hear a lot of complaining about high prices except in the U.S.,'' Robert Ebel, chairman of the energy program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said yesterday. ``The rise in prices is a lot less impressive in other currencies.''

In U.S. dollars, West Texas Intermediate, the New York-traded crude-oil benchmark, is up 41 percent so far this year. Oil is up 31 percent in euros, 35 percent in British pounds and 39 percent in yen.

Oil ``is going to soon hit $90 and go north of $100 next year,'' said Peter Schiff, chief executive officer of Darien, Connecticut-based brokerage Euro Pacific Capital, with $700 million in customer accounts. ``We should see $150 to $200 oil in the next two to three years because of the drop in the dollar. Once Asian countries allow their currencies to appreciate, demand will explode there.''

Brent crude oil for November settlement rose $2.20, or 2.7 percent, to close at a record $82.75 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday.

OPEC members have said a falling dollar justified higher prices because oil-producing countries sell oil in dollars and often buy goods in euros. OPEC will discuss the impact of the falling dollar when members meet on Dec. 5, Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil said yesterday.

Bloomberg.com: Energy

US badly needs a new gameplan in Iraq

There has always been talk, a lot of talk, that the United States went to war in Iraq over the Middle Eastern nation's vast oil supplies.

I have to say, I've always agreed with that sentiment, especially since no one found any of the weapons of mass destruction that George Bush was determined to protect the rest of the world from.

C'mon, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said it best, even if he backtracked later under White House pressure. "I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil," he said in his memoir.

Sadly, and much like the war against the spread of communism in Vietnam, the US has not only bungled any chance of getting Iraqi oil, it has shot itself in the foot and driven prices up too.

Oil prices are hitting record highs each week, topping $84 a barrel last week. That predicted fall price dip that analysts were sure was just around the corner never materialised and people in Europe and North America are probably facing down some pretty expensive heating for their homes this winter. Even the dreaded $100 barrel of oil is seeming more of a given all the time.

And de****e repeated promises from a raft of US officials in Iraq - most notably General David Petraeus, the current US military commander in Iraq, and US Ambassador Ryan Crocker who claim that steady progress is being made - there seems to be little that is going right.

Aside from the accusations that US-based private security firm Blackwater has been shooting civilians, the coalition of the increasingly unwilling has been unable to get Iraqi oil flowing once again.

The nation has more than 110 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and more than 112 billion barrels of oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and estimates place Iraqi reserves between 220 billion and 300 billion barrels of undiscovered oil. That is a whole lot of energy lying beneath improvised explosive devices and scarred terrain.

But de****e its wealth of natural resources, oil continues to trickle slowly and painfully out of Iraq. The US is having a hard time keeping what is working safe, much less tackling the rebuilding and upgrading necessary to bring Iraq's infrastructure up to par.

According to Washington-based think tank Brookings Institution, there have been roughly 400 insurgent attacks against Iraq's oil infrastructure since 2003.

An attack on the Kirkuk-Bayji pipeline in mid-September killed 26 and injured 59, and energy-related targets will continue to appeal to insurgents who want to keep the chaos going.

Although oil started flowing north into Turkey this September, after being at a standstill since the start of the war thanks to a steady pattern of attacks, even that is now looking shaky thanks to some Turkish saber-rattling.

It is no surprise that Turkey, which has always been threatened by the resurgence of the Kurds in Northern Iraq, is huffing and puffing and threatening to invade the semi-autonomous region, citing the need to fight Kurdish terrorism at home.

But such a move could cut off one of the US's routes into the region and add to instability already precarious thanks to the regular rants coming out of Tehran.

The US is in serious need of a new - or perhaps their first real - gameplan, considering all they've done so far is drive up energy prices while destabilising the region they depend on the most to keep their engines running.

Gulfnews: US badly needs a new gameplan in Iraq

Hunt, State Dept. get Iraq oil deal query

Congress's watchdog committee wants details from the U.S. State Department and Ray Hunt regarding the recent controversial Hunt Oil deal with Iraqi Kurds.

In letters sent Monday to U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker and the chief executive officer of Dallas-based Hunt Oil Corp., two leaders in the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform are requesting documents they say will help determine whether the committee will launch an investigation into the oil deal.

Hunt and the Kurdistan Regional Government announced the deal Sept. 9, which drew immediate criticism from Baghdad. The KRG has moved forward on its own regional oil law and signed nearly a dozen oil deals with foreign oil firms.

The KRG blames the central government for not moving forward fast enough on a national oil law. It's stuck in Parliament among factions who can't decide the extent of federal control over the oil sector and how much access foreign firms should have to it.

"By signing a contract directly with a regional government, you may have undermined U.S. national policy of working toward the passage of an oil revenue sharing plan, which the Bush Administration has called a critical step towards national political reconciliation in Iraq and the return home of U.S. troops," Reps. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., chairman of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, and Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, chairman of the Subcommittee on Domestic Policy, wrote in a letter to Hunt.

They questioned if the decision to sign the deal was based on secret information gained by Ray Hunt sitting on the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. The selective board is appointed by the president and evaluates the intelligence he receives.

Waxman and Kucinich have asked Hunt to hand over "any information you received in your capacity as a member Â… relating to Iraq, Kurdistan, the Iraqi national hydrocarbon law, U.S. diplomatic efforts at national Iraqi reconciliation, as well as any information regarding negotiations, contracts, or other interactions with the Kurdistan Regional Government," as well as any "communications, including e-mails," between Hunt and U.S. officials regarding these topics.

Hunt has until Nov. 2 to provide the info, as does Crocker, who is being asked for similar documents.

"We have received the letter from the committee requesting certain limited information," Jeanne Phillips, senior vice president of Hunt, said in a statement. "As we have stated before, our policy as a company is to act independently when determining where to explore for oil and gas around the world."

Hunt, State Dept. get Iraq oil deal query : World

Iraq discusses long-term oil supply deal with Turkey

Dubai: Iraq is in talks for a long-term Kirkuk crude oil supply contract to Turkey, oil industry sources said, as the improved reliability of its northern export pipeline inspires more confidence in increased oil revenues.

The link to to Turkey has been exporting without interruption for two months after repeated sabotage since the US-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

If Iraq can maintain the flow from the Kirkuk oilfields then more long-term contracts would follow, oil sources said yesterday. Oil is Iraq's principal source of the hard currency needed to rebuild its shattered economy.

Iraq issued a sales tender for up to 6 million barrels on Sunday for loading by early November.

If all the cargoes sail on time, Baghdad will have sold around 18.5 million barrels of Kirkuk oil since late August - or nearly 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) - boosting Iraq's total exports by around 20 per cent.

Iraq issues tenders to sell oil from the pipeline terminal at Turkey's Mediterranean Ceyhan port, fed by the pipeline, when it cannot guarantee the flow.

Exports through the line remains sporadic, but the volume pumped since late August has already surpassed the total in 2006 of around 9.6 million barrels.

The flow was halted yesterday after another 1.3-1.4 million barrels came through the line at the weekend, a shipping source said. There were about 6.9 million to 7 million barrels in Ceyhan storage tanks, he added.

Gulfnews: Iraq discusses long-term oil supply deal with Turkey

Tariq Jawher: Kurdistan Region parliament closely observes the Situation

“Kurdistan Region parliament held an unusual session about the threats of Turkey on January 24th, announcing a declaration including 6 points in which it stressed on the existence of friendly relations between Kurdistan region and Turkey and preserving those ties upon good-neighbor policy and the common interests.” Tariq Jawher, the information advisor for the Iraqi Kurdistan parliament exclusively told PUKmedia today.

“Kurdistan Region parliament has invited representatives of Turkish parliament and government through Media channels to visit Kurdistan region, to discus the issues and to see the facts closely as they are. Kurdistan Region parliament also asked the European countries, US and UN to put pressures on Turkey not to interfere in Iraq’s internal affairs.” He added.

“Kurdistan Region parliament stresses that the Iraqi parliament and the Iraqi federal government should have responsible stands on such interferences of Turkey.” He said as well.

“Currently Kurdistan Region parliament closely observes the situation daily and in light of the developments and predictions will Has its clear stands ,if necessary it is likely to hold another unusual session for calculating the situation.” Jawher concluded.

PUKmedia :: English - Tariq Jawher: Kurdistan Region parliament closely observes the Situation

Iraqi VP to visit Turkey for talks over Kurdish issue

Iraqi Vice President Tariq Al- Hashimi will arrive in the Turkish capital on Tuesday for a two- day working visit to Turkey, Prime Ministry Press Center said in a statement on Monday.

Turkish sources told Xinhua that Hashimi will hold talks with Turkish leaders over the Kurdish issue related to the militants of the banned Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) in northern Iraq.

Earlier in the day, Turkish government Spokesman and Deputy Prime Minister Cemil Cicek said the government has submitted to the parliament a motion for a cross-border operation to fight against the PKK in Iraq.

Cicek indicated that the motion was only targeted at the PKK, adding that it would be valid for one year.

Last Friday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey has long been seeking the cooperation of Iraq and the United States in its fight against the PKK, but there has been no crackdown on the rebels.

The PKK has increased its attacks on government troops in southeastern Turkey, which led to rising Turkish demands for an incursion into northern Iraq to crush the rebels based there.

The group, listed as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States and the European Union, launched an armed campaign for an ethnic homeland in the mainly Kurdish southeastern Turkey in 1984, sparking decades of strife that has claimed more than 30, 000 lives.

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Iraqi Kurdistan PM says oil contracts legal (Again)

The government of Iraqi Kurdistan has reiterated that the oil deals it has signed with foreign companies this year are legal and said most of the returns would be shared with the rest of Iraq.

Nechirvan Barzani, Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, told Al Jazeera that he had waited a long time for Baghdad to pass a long-awaited law organising the country's oil sector, but the regional government decided to move ahead with its own legislation following lengthy delays.

"We waited a lot for Baghdad but there was a lot of pressure on us and on me personally to pass a law .... yet there was no response from Baghdad," he said in an interview aired on Sunday.

"Everything was meant to come from Baghdad but by May or June nothing had happened so we presented a law and ... it was passed unanimously by the Kurdish parliament."

Iraq's central government agreed on a draft oil law early this year, under which control and revenue from Iraq's oil reserves are to be shared among Baghdad and Iraq's provinces, but the law has since been stalled by political infighting.

The draft has yet to be approved by the national parliament in Baghdad and Barzani said amendments had since been made which the Kurds had not agreed to, and it was not clear what the law in its current form contained.

Frustrated by delays, the Kurdish Regional Government approved its own oil law in August and said last month it had signed a production-sharing contract with a unit of U.S.-based Hunt Oil Co and with Impulse Energy Corp. It has signed eight contracts so far and expects to sign two more soon.

Barzani said the contracts were in line with Iraq's constitution, which allows provinces substantial control of natural resources, and with the revenue-sharing provisions of the draft oil law.

"If we are convinced that the Iraqi constitution is federal ... then what we did is according to the constitution, no more no less," he said in an interview that was dubbed into Arabic.

"Under these contracts, we get 17 percent of all sales of oil produced from our land and the rest will be distributed among all the other Iraqi regions. So if we are sharing all this with Iraq and not saying it is all ours, what is all the fuss about? There are some who just want to keep everything in Baghdad's control."

But Iraq's Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani has repeatedly said the contracts were illegal and complained about a lack of transparency by the Kurdish authorities.

He said crude from the deals could not be legally exported because the draft law states that only Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organisation holds the right to export oil.

Iraqi Kurdistan PM says oil contracts legal | Markets | Reuters

Basra oil attack marks dangerous change

Threats to Iraq’s oil sector have turned south as a guard of a Basra pipeline was killed in a gunfight with would-be bombers.

Iraq’s northern pipeline, which ships crude to Turkey, has been the main target for those disrupting the flow of oil. Attacks have rendered it mostly useless in the past four years, though recent investment in reconstruction and protection has allowed more oil to flow from Kirkuk to Ceyhan, Turkey.

In Basra, where most of Iraq’s oil is located around and the port city where nearly all of the exports go to market from, there is little of the insurgent activity. Most of the violence is intra-Shiite Iraqi fighting, a power struggle that is dangerous but steers clear of the oil sector; the competing groups see the oil sector as a prize, not a target.

On Sunday the oil protection forces interrupted a bombing operation, Voices of Iraq reports.

“The clashes occurred during the early hours of Sunday in the district of al-Zubair and near the al-Jamei mosque, western Basra, when gunmen were trying to plant an explosive charge beneath Pipeline 14, which carries oil derivatives to most Iraqi refineries,” according to a security apparatus source who spoke to VOI on condition of anonymity.

One guard was killed and another hurt. But it also could mark a new trend in Iraq that, if successful, could cripple the entire industry of the world’s third-largest oil reserves and the country itself, which depends on the oil revenue for nearly all its budget.

United Press International - International Security - Energy - Briefing

Ankara to Seek Go-Ahead for Iraq Incursion
Turkish ministers prepare motion seeking parliament’s approval for military crackdown on PKK rebels in Iraq.

The Turkish government met Monday to prepare a motion seeking parliamentary approval for a military incursion into neighboring Iraq to crack down on Kurdish rebel bases there.

"The ministers will discuss the ... motion (which) will be sent to parliament once it is signed by all the ministers," a government official said.

The cabinet is expected to seek a one-year authorisation for a military operation in northern Iraq, where an estimated 3,500 rebels of the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) are based.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said international pressure would not deter Ankara from sending troops into northern Iraq, adding that "the cost has already been calculated."

The United States has repeatedly urged Turkey against such action.

Ankara says it has no other option because neither Washington nor Baghdad are helping end the safe haven the PKK enjoys in northern Iraq.
Ties between the two NATO allies took a fresh blow last week when the US House Foreign Affairs Committee endorsed a bill branding the Ottoman massacres of Armenians during World War I as genocide.

The army said at the weekend that it had shelled Iraqi territory after PKK rebels attacked a Turkish military outpost with rockets and gunfire from across the border.

Mounting violence by the PKK, listed as a terrorist group by Turkey and much of the international community, has turned up pressure on Erdogan for tougher measures against the rebels.

He hinted last week, however, that military action is unlikely to be immediate.

"It does not mean that everything will happen once we have the authorisation," he said. "We want to have the authorisation in hand so we can decide swiftly when it becomes necessary."

Ankara says the PKK enjoys free movement in northern Iraq and obtains weapons and explosives there for attacks inside Turkey.

It has accused the Iraqi Kurds, who run the region, of tolerating and even supporting the rebels.

Washington is also under fire for what Ankara considers to be its failure to help curb the PKK, which the United States also lists as a terrorist group.

Turkish criticism of Washington increased recently after it emerged that US weapons given to Iraq had ended up in PKK hands.

Turkey and Iraq signed an accord last month to combat the PKK but failed to agree on a clause allowing Turkish troops to engage in "hot pursuit" -- as they did regularly in the 1990s -- against rebels fleeing into Iraqi territory.

Observers here also doubt that the embattled Baghdad government, which has virtually no authority in northern Iraq, can cajole the Iraqi Kurds into action against the PKK.

The PKK has waged a bloody campaign for Kurdish self-rule in southeast Turkey since 1984 in a conflict that has claimed more than 37,000 lives.

PUKmedia :: English - Ankara to Seek Go-Ahead for Iraq Incursion