Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Full brigade to leave Iraq by years end

The U.S. military will begin implementing a phased withdrawal of its troops from Iraq by drawing down troop numbers by a full brigade by the end of the year.

U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of multi-national forces in Iraq, laid out a plan to draw down the number of U.S. combat brigades from 20 to 15 by next summer.

The 1st Calvary, 3rd Brigade Combat team operating in Diyala province will leave Iraq in December and not be replaced, The Washington Post reported.

A neighboring unit will expand its current operations into Diyala province after the 1st Calvary brigade withdraws.

U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Benjamin R. Mixon said the 1st Calvary brigade would eventually be replaced, however, noting the drawdown won't affect the mission in the volatile Diyala province.

"We definitely are not going to let up on the enemy anytime soon by having less combat power," Mixon told the Post.

The Pentagon said other units would expand or reassess their missions in Iraq to compensate for any breaches caused by troop drawdowns.

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Iraq sees only limited Turkish strikes

Iraq anticipates only limited Turkish air strikes on Kurdish separatists in the north of the country and wants the guerrillas to leave as soon as possible, Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari said on Thursday.

In an interview with Reuters, Zebari said the Iraqi government was "not comfortable" with a vote in Turkey's parliament on Wednesday giving its military the green light to hunt members of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) in Iraq.

Turkey's decision has alarmed Washington and other allies who fear an incursion into northern Iraq would bring chaos to the region, threaten oil supplies and harm U.S. attempts to quell relentless violence in the country.

"If something happens it is possibly going to be air strikes on some suspected PKK positions," Zebari said. "But to talk about a major military offensive and major cross-border incursion, that I do not expect."

Zebari's comments were the first reaction from the Iraqi government since the vote in Turkey and he underlined that Baghdad saw further dialogue with Ankara as the only way to resolve the festering PKK problem.

"Our formal request is that they leave Iraqi soil and leave Iraq for its people and do not bring us more problems than we're already suffering," Zebari said, adding that the PKK should leave "as soon as possible".

It was the first public call by Zebari, who is a Kurd, for the PKK to leave Iraq.

"(Turkey has) a problem, we are ready to discuss it, talk about it and fulfil our commitments. But the starting point should be sitting at the dialogue table to agree on mechanisms."

He said the Iraqi and Turkish governments were still talking about the issue and that he expected a Turkish ministerial-level team to visit Baghdad next week.

IRAQI PROTESTS

Zebari warned there was a risk a Turkish incursion would be seen as an attempt to destabilise the one relatively calm region in Iraq, rather than just a targeted attack on the PKK.

"My expectation is that there will definitely be resistance, especially if the army enters populated areas, then there will be resistance from the Peshmerga and the people there," he said, referring to the Kurdish armed forces.

The United States, Ankara's NATO ally, welcomed a visit to Turkey this week by Iraqi Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi and other efforts by Baghdad to coordinate with its neighbour.

"What you have now is the Americans and the Iraqis working together with the Turks... against the PKK," said spokeswoman Dana Perino. "That's what a good neighbour does."

"What we want to see is for Turkey to not send additional troops into that region."

Thousands of people took to the streets in several northern Iraqi towns on Thursday to protest against the Turkish vote.

Carrying banners with slogans in English, Kurdish, Turkish and Arabic, the marchers called for peaceful dialogue with their northern neighbour to end the crisis, but vowed to resist any military invasion of their Kurdistan region.

Kurdistan is a self-governing, largely autonomous region within Iraq.
The sharp rise in PKK strikes on Turkish security forces in southeastern Turkey this year has put Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan under pressure to launch a major operation.

PKK fighters hide in inaccessible, remote mountain bases near the Turkish and Iranian borders and are seldom seen in the towns and villages of the Kurdish region.

Zebari said it was not a question of whether Iraqi wanted to drive the PKK out, but rather an issue of military capability given its forces were battling militants elsewhere in Iraq. Many Kurdish army units have been transferred to Baghdad.

"We are not saying that we do not want to, or we are not ready to, it is only a matter of time," said Zebari, adding that the Turkish parliamentary vote was counterproductive.

"The Iraqi government is not comfortable with such a decision. This permission is a sword hanging over the neck of Iraq and its unity and sovereignty, and we take it seriously."

Iraq sees only limited Turkish strikes - Yahoo! News UK

BAGHDAD - Iraq's leaders grappled Thursday over the death sentences for three former Saddam Hussein regime heavyweights — including the notorious enforcer known as "Chemical Ali" — amid warnings the hangings could enflame sectarian violence and derail efforts at reconciliation.
But any serious delays in carrying out the executions also risk backlash from the victims of Saddam's attacks, including Kurds who faced a brutal crackdown in the 1980s that led to the death sentences.
The bind grew more difficult as Sunni leaders pressed to delay the hangings, saying they could incite violence and cripple already fragile bids to improve ties between Iraq's rival groups.
A court last month upheld the genocide and war crimes convictions against the three former regime insiders for their roles in the "Operation Anfal" campaign against autonomy-seeking Kurds in the 1980s that claimed more than 100,000 lives.
Baghdad's attacks — including the use of poison gas in the Kurdish town of Halabja — came to symbolize the cruelty of Saddam's grip on power and brought the nickname "Chemical Ali" to one of the masterminds, Saddam's cousin Ali Hassan al-Majid.
The others sentenced were former Defense Minister Sultan Hashim al-Tai and Hussein Rashid Mohammed, former deputy operations director of the Iraqi armed forces.
The court ordered the hangings to occur within 30 days. They were put off until the end of the holy month of Ramadan, which ended earlier this week.
But U.S. and Iraqi officials said the men remained in U.S. custody Thursday amid a swirl of legal questions and growing worries about the fallout.
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, who opposes the death penalty, said he would not sign off on the execution as technically required by Iraq's constitution. As a Kurd, Talabani's refusal carried special clout because of strong Kurdish desire to settle scores with Saddam's henchmen.
The trial brought emotional testimony from relatives of victims and survivors who told tales of being forced from their homes and surviving horrific attacks, including the poison cloud that engulfed Halabja in 1988 and left more than 5,000 people dead.
"Our understanding is that there are still discussions within the government of Iraq about how to proceed with this case and we are waiting for further clarification on the issue," U.S. Embassy spokeswoman Mirembe Nantongo said.
Nantongo confirmed the three men were still in U.S. custody but would not specify where for security reasons.
But an American military official, who requested anonymity in exchange for disclosing the information, said the men were still at Camp Cropper, a U.S. detention facility near the Baghdad International Airport. Saddam was held there until he was hanged in December.
Insurgents are routinely executed and sentenced to death in Iraq, but this case stands out because of the passions it stirs and the potential stakes at play.
Sunnis see it as another blow after losing their privileged status with the fall of Saddam in 2003. The Shiite-led government and court officials have insisted that the appeals court decision was final.
Asked by reporters at the White House whether Chemical Ali was going to be executed anytime soon, Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh replied: "Well, I think so, yes, in the coming days the execution will come."
Tariq al-Hashemi — one of two vice presidents and a Sunni — was equally insistent that the executions could not be carried out without approval by the three-man presidential council, which includes himself, Talabani and Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi, a Shiite.
He warned that the executions could stir Sunni violence and undermine efforts to unite Iraq's various groups.
"The American troops who are keeping the convicted people must not hand-over them to any side without permission from the presidency council," al-Hashemi said in a statement, responding to rumors in recent days that the executions were imminent.
But Munir Hadad, a judge and tribunal spokesman, said Saddam and three other former regime officials had been executed without the president's signature.
"There is no need for a presidential decree because four people were executed without such a decree," he said. "It is a political problem and not legal one. Legally, there is no problem. It is political interference."
The constitution says the three-man presidential council — the national president and the two vice presidents — must sign off on death sentences. Iraqi legal experts, however, are divided over whether that rule applies to the special court trying former regime figures.
The sticking point in the current case appears to be the government's decision to hang al-Tai, who was considered by many Iraqis of all sects as a highly regarded officer de****e his ties to Saddam.
Al-Tai, a Sunni Arab from the northern city of Mosul, negotiated the cease-fire than ended the 1991 Gulf War, when a U.S.-led coalition drove Iraqi forces from Kuwait. He also surrendered to U.S. forces in September 2003 after weeks of negotiations. His defense lawyers claimed the Americans had promised al-Tai "protection and good treatment" before he turned himself in.
In an interview broadcast late Thursday by the Dubai-based Al-Arabiya television, Talabani said al-Tai did not deserve to be executed and called him "a competent soldier who carried out orders or risked execution."
"I will urge that he be granted a stay of the execution," he said.
"I am against the execution of Iraqi officers, even those who committed crimes in Kurdistan. I think, we have had enough executions, bloodletting brings more bloodletting. I don't like gallows," he said. "As for Ali Hassan al-Majid, he was not an officer and I have no authority to determine the fate of Chemical Ali."
An Iraqi government official, who is a top aide to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, told The Associated Press an agreement had been made with American authorities to carry out the executions on Sept. 11, but U.S. officials refused to hand over the convicts after the legal issues were raised by al-Hashemi.
A possible compromise was under consideration to first execute Chemical Ali and then work out the details for the others, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

Turkey says army pursuit of PKK "decisive"

Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said here Thursday his country's parliament's approval for military incursion into northern Iraq to hunt down Kurdish rebels if necessary "is decisive" but has not specific timing.

Babacan, at a joint news conference with Arab League secretaray general Amr Moussa, warned against any attempt to test Turkey's determination to defend itself "particularly in this sensitive issue." He said Turkey "defended and still defending the principle of preserving the unity of Iraq and sovereignty of its territories." The Turkish government has exerted efforts with the Americans and the Iraqi government to terminate the "terrorist elements" and has received promises to complete the mission but nothing was achieved, he said.

Turkey and the Arab League seek "security for everybody," said Babacan.
Moussa, meanwhile, hoped the tensin between the Turkish and Iraqi government would be defused. He said the security of Turkey was of interest to the Arab countries.

"We realize, like everybody does including the Turks, the uncertain security situation in Iraq and how difficult it is to fully control it in line with the deteriorating security conditions on the Iraqi arena," said Moussa.

The Turkish foreign minister had met earlier today with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Prime Minister Ahmad Nazif and Foreign minister Ahmad Abul Gheit.

Babacan's visit to Egypt is part of a tour to the region, which is taking him to Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Israel and occupied Palestinian territories.

Turkey says army pursuit of PKK "decisive" | Iraq Updates

Fearful Iraq Kurds protest Turkish threat
Several thousand Iraqi Kurds in northern cities of Arbil, Dohuk denounce Ankara’s possible incursion.

Thousands of Iraqi Kurds rallied in two Kurdish cities on Thursday, holding aloft red, white and green flags of Kurdistan that are banned in Turkey and calling for international support.

Kurds in the regional capital Arbil and the border city of Dohuk were fearful that a Turkish parliamentary decision to authorise a military incursion meant troops imminently crossing the border to hunt down rebels.

"No, no to the Turkish threat, yes yes to peace," chanted one protestor in Arbil. "Violation of the Kurdistan border is a violation of the people of Kurdistan," read a banner held by another.

Several thousand students, government workers and union representatives massed outside the UN building in Arbil, the seat of Iraq's autonomous Kurdish regional government, to denounce the developments in Ankara.

The Turkish parliament gave permission to the military on Wednesday to launch an incursion into northern Iraq to crack down on rebels from the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) on Iraqi territory.

Carrying Kurdish flags and banners written in Arabic, Kurdish and English, protestors called for help to stop the Turks from launching any military action.

"We demand that the Iraqi government and international community stand together against the Turkish threat," one protestor said.

Tight security surrounded the protest which saw traffic stopped in the centre of Arbil as demonstrators handed over a letter to the UN representative in the city.

"The best way to treat the PKK issue is to hold a dialogue between the Turkish leadership and the Kurdish leadership," said Karim Ali, a 21-year old student draped in a Kurdish flag.
"Why are they threatening us, we are not a part of the PKK issue?" he asked.

Another protestor accused the Turks of having a hidden agenda targeting Iraqi Kurdistan, not just the PKK rebels.

"As big as this demonstration is, I think it will not be any use because the Turkish have decided to destroy the Kurdistan experiment," said Ahmed Salim, 19. "I don't think we can stop the Turkish threat."

In Dohuk, the main city on the border with Turkey, some 5,000 demonstrators gathered holding banners saying, "We condemn the Turkish threat," and calling for support from the international community.

They brandished Kurdish flags and pictures of the late Mustafa Barzani, the father of modern Kurdish nationalism whose son Massoud is president of the autonomous Kurdish region.

The rebel PKK has waged a bloody campaign for Kurdish self-rule in southeastern Turkey since 1984. The conflict has claimed more than 37,000 lives.

Turkey says the PKK enjoys free movement in northern Iraq and is tolerated or even actively supported by Iraqi Kurdish leaders, something they strongly deny.

A Turkish government bill seeking a one-year authorisation for military intervention in Iraq was approved by a landslide on Wednesday.

The law leaves it up to the government to determine the timing and scope of any incursion and the number of troops to be sent.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stressed that parliamentary approval will not mean immediate military action, signalling that there could still be room for diplomacy.

Fearful Iraq Kurds protest Turkish threat | Iraq Updates

Blood and Oil in Kurdistan

Until recently, the US saw Iraqi Kurdistan as the only safe pocket in an endless minefield. Now Turkish plans to invade northern Iraq risk transforming the region into Washington’s biggest nightmare, pitting one NATO ally against the other.

Things were different before the Bush administration decided to hit Iraq. The arrest of Kurd rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan in 1999 had left the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in a mess. Syria had distanced itself from the rebels, seeking to make amends with Turkey, while Iraqi Kurd leader Masud Barzani went on to cooperate with Ankara.

In November 2002, Turk Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan rose to power. Putting emphasis on the common Muslim identity of Turks and Kurds alike and awarding more language rights to Kurds as part of EU-minded reforms, his AK Party appeared more credible than its predecessors.

After the invasion, everything changed. With the Baathist resistance prevailing among the Sunnis and Iran exerting influence among the Shiites, Washington has had to tolerate the transformation of Iraqi Kurdistan into a de facto independent state and source of separatist ambitions for Turkey’s Kurds.

Barzani has already struck a deal with the Texas-based Hunt Oil company, one of Bush’s donors, sidestepping Baghdad. The US Senate resolution calling for three self-governing regions – for Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds – and the impending referendum on Kirkuk, expected to give Kurdistan control of 40 percent of Iraqi oil, were the last straw for Ankara.

The US is investing in Iran’s Kurds for a regime change in Tehran. With the help of Mossad, the CIA is training the Kurdish separatist group PJAK which has ties to the PKK.

Washington’s Kurdish card is on fire, as it brings Turkey closer to the “axis of evil” countries Syria and Iran.

Blood and oil in Kurdistan | Iraq Updates

Iraq wants Kurdish separatists to leave soon

Iraq wants Kurdish separatist guerrillas based in northern Iraq to leave as soon as possible, Iraq's Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari said on Thursday.

Zebari said he did not expect Turkey to launch a major military operation in Iraq anytime soon, saying that if it were to attack it would probably be limited airstrikes on suspected Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) positions.

"This party is not present with the approval of the Iraqi government or the government of the Kurdish region. The Iraqi government has asked them and other military groups to leave Iraq," Zebari told Reuters in an interview.

"Absolutely, with no doubt, our formal request is that they leave Iraqi soil and leave Iraq for its people and do not bring us more problems than we're already suffering. Kurdistan is a stable area and it is not in the interests of any party, or any side, to threaten its stability."

Asked if the government was giving the PKK a timetable to leave, Zebari said: "As soon as possible."

Zebari said the Iraqi government was not comfortable with a Turkish parliamentary vote this week giving its military permission to cross into northern Iraq to hunt down PKK members.

"The Turkish decision does not serve Iraqi-Turkish relations, especially as it gives Turkish forces the authorization to violate the sovereignty of another country," Zebari said.

"The Iraqi government is not comfortable with such decision," he said. "This permission is a sword hanging over the neck of Iraq and its unity and sovereignty and we take it seriously."

Iraq wants Kurdish separatists to leave soon | Iraq Updates

'Kurd rebels must leave Iraq'

Iraq sees only limited Turkish air strikes on Kurdish separatists in the north of the country and wants the guerrillas to leave as soon as possible, Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari said yesterday.

Zebari said the Iraqi government was "not comfortable" with a vote in Turkey's parliament on Wednesday giving its military the green light to hunt members of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) in Iraq.

"If something happens it is possibly going to be air strikes on some suspected PKK positions," Zebari said. "But to talk about a major military offensive and major cross-border incursion, that I do not expect."

"Our formal request is that they leave Iraqi soil and leave Iraq for its people and do not bring us more problems than we're already suffering," Zebari said, adding that the PKK should leave "as soon as possible".

"[Turkey has] a problem, we are ready to discuss it, talk about it and fulfil our commitments. But the starting point should be sitting at the dialogue table to agree on mechanisms."

He said the Iraqi and Turkish governments were still talking about the issue and that he expected a Turkish ministerial-level team to visit Baghdad next week.

Zebari warned there was a risk a Turkish incursion would be seen as an attempt to destabilise the one relatively calm region in Iraq, rather than just a targeted attack on the PKK.

"My expectation is that there will definitely be resistance, especially if the army enters populated areas, then there will be resistance from the Peshmerga and the people there," he said, referring to the Kurdish armed forces.

The Kurdish administration called for direct negotiations with Ankara.
Thousands of people took to the streets in several northern Iraqi towns on Thursday to protest against the Turkish vote.

Meanwhile, Turkey wants to give diplomacy a chance, Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said.

A meeting in Istanbul of the foreign ministers of Iraq's neighbours set for November 2 will be "an occasion to discuss all problems in Iraq including our problem with terrorism," Babacan said after meeting Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

"I want to reaffirm that the fight against terrorism is carried out in cooperation with the United States and with the Iraqi central government," Babacan said.

Also, Kuwait urged Turkey to exercise utmost restraint.
"We have been following with great concern the developments on the Turkish-Iraqi borders. We hope that our brothers in Turkey will observe the maximum degree of self-restraint," Foreign Minister Shaikh Mohammad Al Sabah said.

'Kurd rebels must leave Iraq' | Iraq Updates

Oil Jumps Over $90 a Barrel

Crude oil prices on Friday rose to a fresh all-time high above $90 a barrel as the US dollar sunk to a new low against the euro.

Persistent worries about tight supplies ahead of the winter peak season and fresh geopolitical tensions also helped to push prices higher.

Nymex November West Texas Intermediate hit $90.02 a barrel in overnight trading. It later was 10 cents higher at $89.57 a barrel, extending Thursday's $2.07 price jump. It is the sixth straight trading day that oil set a record high.

Edward Morse, chief energy economist at Lehman Brothers in New York, said that financial flows betting on further US dollar weakness ahead of the Group of Seven meeting and the US Federal Reserve meeting were propping up the oil price.

The dollar traded on Friday to $1.4303 against the euro, after touching earlier a record low of $1.4311 per euro. Investors are betting on a further interest rate cut when the Federal Reserve meets on October 31.

A lower dollar cuts the purchasing power of the barrel, suggesting that producing countries, such as Saudi Arabia, would try to keep the oil price higher to compensate for it. The strength of the euro, the sterling pound and other currencies also mean that some countries, particularly in Europe, are partially insulated from the oil price rally.

David Moore, a commodity strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, said: "The dollar fell to new lows overnight. That fact has been a boost to all commodity prices."

The Nymex December West Texas Intermediate contract which will become the oil market benchmark early next week traded at $88.01 a barrel, after hitting $88.49 a barrel.

Nauman Barakat, senior vice president at Macquaire Futures in New York, warned that traders have built massive December options calls -rights to buy oil at a certain price- at $90 and $100 a barrel, providing the backdrop for "additional upward impetus."

Kevin Norrish of Barclays Capital said that the issue no longer seems to be whether oil will reach $100 a barrel, but when.

"Until there is a clear prospect of the [supply-demand] gap being filled, then the course is set for the market to take out $90, $100 and $110 in fairly quick succession," Mr. Norrish said.

Low inventories crude oil inventories ahead of the winter season are also supporting prices, traders said.

OECD crude oil and products stocks have fallen below their 5-year average, after the inventories suffered a counter-seasonal drop in the third quarter.

The IEA estimates that between July and September inventories fell at a rate of 360,000 barrels a day, sharply diverging from a 10-year average of increases in that period of about 260,000 b/d.

Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil contract are running 19 per cent below last year.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which controls 40 per cent of the world's crude oil output, denies that the market is tight, instead blaming speculation, the weakening of the dollar and Middle East tensions for the 13 per cent jump in prices in the past week.

The price jump could force OPEC to call for an emergency meeting ahead of its head of state summit in Riyahd, Saudi Arabia, in late November, and its ministerial meeting in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, in early December.

Saudi Arabia, the cartel's leader, has remained silent on whether to increase production further, but at the last OPEC meeting it pushed for a production boost in ****e of strong opposition from other countries, suggesting the kingdom is concerned about the impact of high oil prices on the global economy.

OPEC officials said the cartel's ministers were just returning from holidays after the end of the Ramadan, implying it may take extra time for the group to discuss a new production increase.

PUKmedia :: English - Oil Jumps Over $90 a Barrel

Ali al-Dabagh Urged Turkey not to Conduct a Cross-border Incursion

On his visit to Whitehouse and in a statement on Turkish late decision, Mr. Ali al-Dabagh Iraqi government spokesman urged turkey not to conduct a cross-border incursion into Iraqi territories for pursuing PKK elements.

PUKmedia :: English - Ali al-Dabagh Urged Turkey not to Conduct a Cross-border Incursion