Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

N.Y. Oil Falls From Record on as Turkish Assault Fears Ease

Crude oil fell from a record as concern eased that a Turkish assault on Kurdish militants in northern Iraq was imminent.

Turkey's government, which came under pressure to invade Iraq after eight Turkish soldiers were missing after fighting near the Iraqi border, said it would give diplomacy a chance. An Iraqi pipeline carried 153,000 barrels of oil a day last month to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

``First the Turks were going to invade, then they weren't going to invade,'' said Roger Read, an analyst with Natixis Bleichroeder Inc. in Houston.

Crude oil for November delivery fell $1.04, or 1.2 percent, to settle at $87.56 a barrel at 2:50 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The November contract expired today. The more actively traded December contract fell 93 cents to $86.02.

The Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, has agreed to find a political solution to the conflict with Turkey ``away from violence and fighting,'' the group said in a statement today on the Web site of Iraq President Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan movement.

Turkey's government will give diplomacy a chance. Spokesman Cemil Cicek said the government was calling for ``common sense and unity.''
``The PKK statement was not as bearish as expected, as they only reaffirm a cease-fire they say has been in place since June,'' said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York.

Raid Not `Imminent'

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said a Turkish raid on rebels in Iraq wasn't ``imminent.'' The U.S. says it wants Turkey to show restraint as a cross-border offensive against the PKK may exacerbate regional violence.

The latest clash yesterday between Turkey's army and Kurdish militants near the border with Iraq killed 44 people. Thirty-two members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, who had crossed into Turkey from Iraq, and 12 Turkish soldiers died in the fighting, the Turkish armed forces said on its Web site.

``It looks like the White House is putting a lot of pressure on the Turks to hold off now and the Turks are saying they will wait a bit,'' Mueller said.
U.S. stock markets rose today, retracing some of last week's losses and lessening concern that world economic growth may slow, reducing energy demand.

``This morning, everyone wanted to throw themselves out a window, and now that the Dow is up, they figure the economy is going to be OK,'' Read said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 22.93 at 13,544.95 as of 2:10 p.m. New York time. It fell 366.94, or 2.6 percent, on Oct. 19.

Oil touched an intraday record of $90.07 on Oct. 19, the highest since futures began trading in 1983, after Turkish lawmakers approved a resolution to strike militants in Iraq, home to the world's third-largest oil reserves.

Brent crude oil for December settlement fell 52 cents to $83.27 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Twenty of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News on Oct. 19 said crude oil may decline this week.

Bloomberg.com: Commodities

Parliament holds closed session to hear reports on Turkish threats

The Iraqi parliament held a closed session on Monday to debate Turkish threats of military action in northern Iraq and hear reports by three ministers in this regard, a parliamentary media source said on Monday.

"The parliament began its 19 session of its second legislative term in the Baghdad-based Palace of Conferences under the chairmanship of Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani and with the participation of over 150 parliamentarians from different political blocs," the source told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).

"Today's session will discuss Turkish threats with the participation of Iraqi government representatives," the source said, in reference to Minister of Foreign Affairs Hishyar Zibari, Minister of Defense Abdul Qadir al-Ubeidi and Minister of State for National Security Affairs Shirwan al-Waili.
According to the source, the session "will be closed and the three ministers will provide clarification with regard to the threats and the procedures they have taken to resolve the crisis."

"The ministers were invited at the request of several parliamentarians to debate the Iraqi-Turkish crisis in the parliament."

On Sunday the Turkish army said 12 soldiers were killed and 15 others were wounded during clashes with Kurdistan Workers Party's (PKK) fighters.

Meanwhile, a PKK foreign relations official claimed that the Turkish army "lost more than it announced" during the clashes that occurred on Saturday evening along the Iraqi-Turkish borders.

The Turkish parliament approved on Wednesday a memorandum forwarded by the government allowing the Turkish army to hunt down members of the PKK, or Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan in Kurdish, in northern Iraq. Only 19 out of 555 legislators in the Turkish parliament voted against the proposal. The Turkish parliament made the decision after PKK fighters on the Turkish-Iraqi border areas waged armed attacks that killed nearly 15 Turkish soldiers two weeks ago.

Parliament holds closed session to hear reports on Turkish threats | Iraq Updates

Crisis over Turkish Kurdish guerrillas is part of U.S. agenda

The remote and inaccessible mountains in Turkey, Iran and Iraq have never been the exclusive territory of one state. These are dark and difficult mountains where anyone can hide but no government or force can find.

Therefore, the transfer of Turkish Kurdish guerrillas to one of Iraq’s mountains does not mean that the nearly 30-year old Turkish crisis has immediately become an Iraqi issue, with its consequences boomeranging on the conditions in the country as a whole.

In the shadow of U.S. occupation of Iraq, this issue cannot practically be separated from the U.S. agenda.

Ankara can directly negotiate with Washington over the Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party or PKK because the Americans are the ones who possess a good picture of PKK’s movements and horizons.

And Ankara should remember that the American side has outstanding interests in Turkey whose tide may rise and ebb depending on circumstances.

This state of affairs became quite clear when the Turks turned down a U.S. request to use the Incirlik Air Base for attacks on Iraq in 2003.

A few days ago, the strain in relations entered a new stage when a U.S. congressional panel, in defiance of President George W. Bush, approved a measure calling the killings of Armenians early in the last century “genocide.”

There are obviously a number of cards whose use the two friends and allies have opted to defer for the time being. They may not become enemies but certainly these cards will introduce a new concept to their alliance.
The Turks are still in the midst of the struggle for membership of the European Union which may not materialize in 20 years from now.

But from the geographical vantage point, they can approach Europe and make good use of their E.U. relations in case their American ally loses interest. So the Turks apparently have an alternative to replace Washington.

But there is no other country in the region to make up for Turkey as far as Washington is concerned.

True, Iraq is under U.S. control, but it may take Washington decades to turn it or perhaps part of it into a strategic ally to rival the loss of Turkey.

The PKK file evolves within these confines. Therefore, it will remain an outstanding file. It will only be solved when the suitable time comes to have far more important files resolved. And it will take long for that to happen.

Crisis over Turkish Kurdish guerrillas is part of U.S. agenda | Iraq Updates

Expert urges Government to rely on National Company to develop Oil

Iraq must solely rely on its National Oil Company to develop new oil fields and boost output, a top analyst says.

Dr. Mohammed Ali Zainy, senior energy economist and analyst at the London-based Center for Global Energy Studies, said foreign firms would shun entering Iraqi markets so long as there is lack of security.

“To imagine that foreign firms would enter Iraq and start developing oil fields de****e the aggravating security conditions is not logical,” he said in an interview.

The experience of the years since the 2003-U.S. invasion has illustrated that stability and peace in Iraq are a far fetched dream. While foreign firms have fled the country, the NIC has steadfastly proceeded ahead with its activities de****e mounting insecurity.

It currently administers the giant fields of Kirkuk and Rumeilah in Basra and so far has managed to maintain exports at nearly 1.5 million barrels a day.

Zainy said he did not expect foreign firms to be able to add substantially to Iraqi output.

“The development of new fields in Iraq in order to produced 2 million barrels more will require seven years and an estimated cost of $30 billion,” he said.

While the NIC can add the same volume in much less time and at a much lower cost, he said.

Zainy is not against the presence of foreign oil giants in Iraq by he wants their activities to complement those of the NIC.

His remarks come as the Iraqi parliament is set to have another look at the proposed Oil and Gas Law which the U.S. and some Iraqi factions support but meets tough opposition from others.

Zainy asked the government to turn the NIC into an effective tool in the exploration and development of crude oil in Iraq.

He said the company boosted the country’s output to 4 million barrels a day in the 1970s in cooperation with foreign oil firms from France, Brazil, India and the former Soviet Union.

The NIC, with the assistance of these firms, added 45 billion barrels to proven Iraqi reserves in the same decade, he said.

It is not clear whether the government will heed Zainy’s advice. Officials say the government, under U.S. pressure, wants to strike separate contracts with foreign firms.

The Kurdish region has already signed several such deals but Zainy lambasted the Kurdish authorities, saying their actions in this regard “are against the interests of the Iraqi people.”

Expert urges government to rely on national company to develop oil | Iraq Updates

US calls for swift action by Iraq

Turkey said yesterday it will exhaust diplomatic channels before launching any military strike into northern Iraq to root out Kurdish rebels, who killed at least a dozen Turkish soldiers in fighting over the weekend.

Turkey has built up its forces along the border with Iraq in anticipation of an incursion against rebel bases but Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has said he will hold off for a few days to let the United States try to curb the Kurdish separatists.

Washington, in turn, urged the Iraqi government yesterday to act swiftly to stop Kurdish rebels from mounting further attacks in Turkey.

"We do not want to see wider military action on the northern border," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said.

Washington and Iraq have been calling on Turkey to refrain from a military push into the largely autonomous Kurdish region, one of the few relatively stable areas since a US-led invasion in 2003.

The office of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, said the rebels would announce a ceasefire yesterday evening.

Erdogan is under pressure from his military and the public to strike in Iraq against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) rebels, who have killed some 40 soldiers in the past month.

After speaking with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Sunday, Erdogan agreed to hold off for a few days and he left for an official visit to Britain yesterday.

Erdogan has been resisting a cross-border operation and his foreign minister, Ali Babacan, was quoted yesterday as saying: "We will try all diplomatic means before carrying out any military operation."

But the decades-long fight against the PKK, which wants an independent homeland in southeast Turkey and northern Iraq, is highly emotive and Ankara confirmed eight of its soldiers were missing after the recent fighting.

Turkey has deployed as many as 100,000 troops, backed by tanks, F-16 fighter jets and helicopter gunships along its border with Iraq in anticipation of a possible incursion.

US calls for swift action by Iraq | Iraq Updates

President Talabani Receives Ambassador Crocker

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani received yesterday in his residence in Baghdad the American Ambassador Ryan Crocker. They discussed in the meeting the developments in the political process and the security situation in the country.

They stressed on the necessity of solving all the problems, in correspondence to the success in fighting terror and achieving security and stability in Iraq.

Also they discussed the efforts to calm down the situation between Turkey and PKK elements. President Talabani stressed the necessity of solving this issue peacefully, which helps in achieving peace in the whole area and strengthening the mutual relations between Iraq and Turkey.

PUKmedia :: English - President Talabani Receives Ambassador Crocker

Turkish Foreign Minister to Visit Baghdad

Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babachan will arrive in Baghdad today to discuss the crisis of the borders with the Iraqi officials, and the ways to treat the PKK elements presence on the borders of Iraq and Turkey.

It’s worth mentioning that the PKK Party announced yesterday its willingness to cease fire and move towards political work and solve problems in diplomatic ways.

PUKmedia :: English - Turkish Foreign Minister to Visit Baghdad

Barzani and Rice Hold Talks to Reduce the Tension between Iraq and Turkey

President of Kurdistan Region, Massud Barzani in a phone call yesterday on phone with US Foreign minister Condoleezza Rice, talked about their effort to reduce the Tension between Iraq and Turkey diplomatically.
They talked about the existence of PKK elements in Kurdistan Region, and Kurdish leaders’ efforts to solve this issue.

Barzani rejected any aggressive operation in the area and stressed his trying his best to resolve PKK issue.

PUKmedia :: English - Barzani and Rice Hold Talks to Reduce the Tension between Iraq and Turkey

Nervous US vows Help for Turkey against PKK Rebels

WASHINGTON - President George W. Bush Monday promised US cooperation in Turkey's struggle against Kurdish rebels operating out of northern Iraq, but Washington also urged restraint after deadly border clashes.

Bush telephoned Turkish President Abdullah Gul and "expressed his deep concern" about the weekend attacks by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), White House national Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

"The president reaffirmed our commitment to work with Turkey and Iraq to combat PKK terrorists operating out of northern Iraq," he said, without spelling out what kind of US help might be extended.

The Chicago Tribune reported Tuesday that Bush told Gul that US officials were seriously looking into options beyond diplomacy.

Cruise missile launches against PKK targets have been discussed, but air strikes using manned aircraft were an easier option, the Tribune reported, citing an official familiar with the conversation.

"In the past, there has been reluctance to engage in direct US military action against the PKK," the official told the Tribune.

"But the red line was always, if the Turks were going to come over the border, it could be so destabilizing that it might be less risky for us to do something ourselves.

Now the Turks are at the end of their rope, and our risk calculus is changing," the official told the Tribune.

In remarks published Tuesday Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the United States may consider a joint operation with Turkey against the Kurdish rebels.

"We may conduct a joint operation with the United States against the PKK in northern Iraq ... We expect to work jointly, just as we do in Afghanistan," Erdogan said on a flight to Britain Monday, the mass-selling Hurriyet newspaper reported.

Erdogan said he got a signal that Washington might become involved during a telephone conversation with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Sunday.

"She was worried. I saw she was in favour of a joint operation," Erdogan said. "She asked for a few days' time and said she would come back to us."

He said President Abdullah Gul was to speak with US President George W. Bush soon.

Erdogan added that the issue would be also high on the agenda of his meeting with Bush in Washington, scheduled for November 5.

Meanwhile Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan was due in Baghdad on Tuesday for talks with Iraqi leaders about the crisis, a Baghdad foreign ministry statement said.

Babacan was expected to meet top Iraqi leaders including Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, President Jalal Talabani and Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari.

"Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari will hold a press conference with the Turkish foreign minister today" in Baghdad, a foreign ministry statement said.

Zebari had announced the visit in the Iraqi parliament on Monday but there was no immediate confirmation from Babacan.

The PKK said it had captured eight Turkish soldiers after an ambush Sunday on a military unit near the village of Daglica on the Iraqi border, which left 12 troops dead.

Erdogan has threatened to launch a military drive into northern Iraq unless Baghdad clamps down on the rebels and turns over the PKK leaders it accuses of masterminding cross-border attacks.

The United States, which uses the Incirlik air base in southern Turkey as a major staging post for supplies headed to its forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, fears any incursion could gravely undermine its battle to stabilize Iraq.

In a video-conference with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, Bush pressed for more action from authorities in Baghdad and Iraq's Kurdish north against the PKK.

"The prime minister agreed with President Bush that Turkey should have no doubt about our mutual commitment to end all terrorist activity from Iraqi soil," Johndroe said.

"They agreed to work together, in cooperation with the Turkish government, to prevent the PKK from using any part of Iraqi territory to plan or carry out terrorist attacks."

As tensions soared, Rice and visiting British Foreign Secretary David Miliband called for Turkey and Iraq to work together against the PKK.

"We continue to believe that cooperation and coordination between Turkey and Iraq is the most effective means to eliminate the PKK threat," the top US and British officials said in a joint statement.

"At a time when we are seeing real progress in the security situation inside Iraq and efforts to promote peace in the region, the Iraqi government must demonstrate its commitment to regional stability," they added.

The PKK, the Turkish acronym for the Kurdistan Workers Party, contends that the government has oppressed minority Kurds for decades.

The group, which is fighting for Kurdish self-rule in southeast Turkey, said in a statement that it was ready for a ceasefire "if the Turkish army stops attacking our positions, drops plans for an incursion and resorts to peace."
More than 37,000 people have been killed since the PKK took up arms against the Turkish state in 1984.

However, Washington fears that its influence with Turkey has been undermined by a push in the US Congress to describe the World War I massacre of Armenians by Ottoman Turks as "genocide."

After the resolution was approved by the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Turkey recalled its ambassador to Washington and has threatened to cut off logistical support to the US war efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

PUKmedia :: English - Nervous US vows Help for Turkey against PKK Rebels

Director of the Foreign Relations Department for KRG Met US Senior Officials

Mr. Falah Mustafa Bakir Director of the foreign relations department for the Kurdistan Regional Government on his visit to US, accompanied by Mr. Qubad Talabani KRG representative in US met General Mark Kemit, US Deputy Defense Secretary.

In the meeting, they discussed the political process, national reconciliation in Iraq and Kurdistan region situation as well as the efforts to promote peace in Iraq.

They talked about the Tension between Iraq and Turkey, and promoting KRG’s relation with the neighboring countries. KRG’s policy stressed to find a political solution for the issue.

US deputy defense secretary expressed the threatening of incursion by Turkish army. He was not with a military operation to solve this problem.

Also Bakir met General Carter Ham from US Defense Ministry. They discussed the political process in Iraq and Kurdistan region, and Turkeys Parliaments late decision for cross-border operation.

PUKmedia :: English - Director of the Foreign Relations Department for KRG Met US Senior Officials