Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Is closing Habur enough to persuade Iraqis?

The Turkish government is seriously considering the imposition of economic sanctions on northern Iraq as a measure to deter the regional Kurdish government from backing the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) elements in the region.

Possible economic sanctions include cutting the sale of electricity to Iraq’s north, closing the Habur border gate, ordering Turkish companies to leave northern Iraq and chasing out any Turkish company that has even the slightest affiliation with the northern Iraqi regional government. The measures will be determined at the next Cabinet meeting and will subsequently go into effect.

Many analysts feel that such an embargo would cause serious problems for Iraq’s relatively stable north, which is highly dependent on Turkish investment as the driving force of its economy. From food to energy, all vital supplies are obtained from Turkey, and Turkish contractors are restructuring the north by constructing roads, ho****als, residential buildings, apartments and infrastructure. Turkey’s exports to Iraq have surpassed $3 billion, and the Habur border gate on the trade route between Iraq and Turkey has become the lifeline of the region’s trade, de****e the decrease in the number of trucks passing through the gate to 700 from 3,000 after the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Analysts opine that closing Habur would alone cause great losses in profits to the Barzani government in northern Iraq, which earns a healthy revenue from traffic through the gate. The regional government receives $100 per truck carrying goods to Iraq through the gate.

According to official figures, the total number of vehicles entering or exiting Iraq through the Habur gate was 824,659 last year. The number of passengers entering Turkey was 73,726, with 79,078 leaving the country. YTL 20.8 million in taxes was deducted at the border from goods and another YTL 1.64 million of penalties were imposed. Moreover, YTL 6.3 million worth of smuggled goods were seized in 643 operations against clandestine trade.

The entire $3 billion in trade Turkey conducts with Iraq passes through Habur. Turkey has been planning since 2003 to construct another gate in Ovaköy, a district just 15 kilometers from Habur, but it this plan has never been implemented due to fierce opposition from the US and the northern Iraqi regional government. The share of the trade with Iraq in Turkey’s total trade is only 1 percent, seen by many as a paltry figure.

Six hundred Turkish companies operate in Iraq’s north -- and these companies control 95 percent of the $2.8 billion market there. Furthermore, there are 1,200 Turkish companies throughout Iraq, employing tens of thousands of Iraqis. An embargo would therefore rapidly destabilize northern Iraq, which is claimed to be the brightest part of the war-torn nation. A recent feature story by Reuters noted that the signs for roadside restaurants in the area are in Turkish. “In a vast supermarket in Dahuk, the butter, cigarettes, cheese, and sweets are all produced in Turkey,” it reported.

Among the 600 Turkish firms in Iraq’s north, 150 have undertaken large construction projects in the Arbil and Sulaimaniya regions. In Arbil alone, there are 500 foreign companies actively operating, and 380 of them are Turkish. In Dahuk, another northern Iraqi area close to Habur, 65 percent of the total $350 million of business contracts were won by Turkish companies. Turkish firm Mak-Yol is constructing a $480 million airport in Arbil; Turkey’s Tepe Construction Company is building the $250 million Sulaymaniyah University. Turks are also quite active in other parts of northern Iraq, including Zaho, Akre and Behdinan. Infrastructural work completed by Turkish companies stood at $240 million in 2003 but jumped to $767.1 million in 2004 and $1.5 billion in 2005.

The embargo will definitely affect northern Iraq and possibly trigger a destabilization, but it will inflict some negatives on Turkish companies as well. Among the companies that will be hit the hardest is the Army Pension Fund (OYAK), which has the biggest share in the northern Iraqi reconstruction pie. OYAK is the number-one cement exporter to this region and sells many tons of cement from its factories in Mardin, Adana, Bolu and Ünye. The cement factory in Mardin alone earned YTL 89.1 million in profits in 2006 from its sales to Iraq. Moreover, OYAK’s iron and steel manufacturing plants in İskenderun and in Ereğli also sell heavily to Iraq. Its subsidiaries earn millions of dollars in fields from paper to construction in Iraq’s north.

Although Turkey’s only direct gate to Iraq is Habur, it still has the ability to conduct trade with the rest of Iraq through alternative routes, such as the Akçakale gate at the Syrian border. Foreign Trade Minister Kürtad Tüzmen said on Wednesday that Ankara was capable of excluding the north and maintaining trade relations with the rest of Iraq. He noted that while the trade with Iraq is extremely important, when it comes to national interests such issues become negligible trivia.

Turkey’s truck drivers in the southeastern Anatolia region are concerned, however, by the growing possibility of an operation and its economic consequences. Any sanction would cause them to lose their livelihood. But the Turkish government’s intention of continuing trade with Baghdad and excluding only the north of the country from trade stands as an option for them.

Although businessmen in the East and Southeast are concerned with the possible consequences of a military operation in northern Iraq, entrepreneurs outside the region are strongly backing the idea of applying economic sanctions. Southeast Association of Businessmen and Industrialists (GÜNSİAD) Chairman Şah İsmail Bedirhanoğlu is wary of sanctions, since they may pave the way to losing northern Iraq’s trade partnership. Jordan would take advantage of the situation if the Habur gate is closed, Bedirhanoğlu noted, underlining that a possible operation would negate distance Turkey has covered in terms of trade relations with Iraq. Oğuz Satıcı, the chairman of the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM), said: “When the interests of the Turkish nation are the issue, economic losses or figures have no significance. We have no worries. When the issue in question is our motherland, everything else is a tiny little detail.” Doğan Karadeniz, the CEO of the Karadeniz Holding Energy Group, which supplies 9 percent of Iraq’s electrical power, said his company was ready to cut off the electricity they provided to Iraq if the Turkish government asks them to.

Turkey’s Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Mehdi Eker said on Wednesday that the government had no intention of inconveniencing the innocent people living in the region. At the opening ceremony of the Middle East Trade and Industry Fair in Diyarbakır, Eker told the press that they were trying to do their best to prevent the adverse consequences of an operation on the people of the region, but he emphasized that the government is poised to take all measures necessary to destroy the PKK.

TODAY'S ZAMAN

Al-Maliki Receives a Phone Call from Ahmadi Najad

Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki received a phone call from the Iranian President Mahmood Ahmadi Najad. They agreed on the necessity of facing the PKK activities which harm the relations between Iraq, Turkey and Iran.

They also stressed that the military action is not the only way to solve the issue, which must be solved by peaceful ways.

PUKmedia :: English - Al-Maliki Receives a Phone Call from Ahmadi Najad

Erdogan Threats to Send Troops Across the Border into Kurdistan Region

Turkish PM Recep Tayeep Erdogan threatened to give order to the Turkish armed forces to enter Kurdistan Region in pursuit of PKK elements.

In front of crowds in Azmit, he said that “We can't say when or how we will do it, we will just do it. We don’t need permission from anyone.”

Turkey gathered about 100.000 soldiers supported by jetfighters, helicopters, tanks and artillery near the Iraqi border against almost 3000 PKK elements.

”The military planes are carrying surveillance missions to gather information about PKK camps, while soldiers are searching for mines”, military sources said.

PUKmedia :: English - Erdogan Threats to Send Troops Across the Border into Kurdistan Region

Closing the Roads Leading to al-Adhamiya in Baghdad

Early this morning, all the roads leading to al-Adhamiya and Raghba Khatoon were closed, because of information saying that al-Qaeda elements are in these areas to attack trucks carrying money to one of the banks.

Some terrorists were arrested, and the storming campaigns are still going on as security sources said.

Meanwhile, clashes happened between terrorist groups resulted in killing 4 of them, and their bodies are still in the streets.

PUKmedia :: English - Closing the Roads Leading to al-Adhamiya in Baghdad

President Talabani Receives a Phone Call from Ahmadi Najad

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani received a phone call from the Iranian President Mahmood Ahmadi Najad, who stressed his support for the Iraqi people to live in peace, and expressed his will to make all efforts to end the tensions between Iraq and Turkey.

On his side, President Talabani expressed his wish that the Iranian President spends his efforts with the Turkish Foreign minister, who currently visits Iran to use talks instead of threats and military solutions.

Both Presidents stressed the need to end this tension by the diplomatic ways.

President Talabani thanked the Iranian President on his support for the Iraqi people.

PUKmedia :: English - President Talabani Receives a Phone Call from Ahmadi Najad

The Iraqi Federal Government at what Level is Free in its Foreign Policy?

Though the Turkish parliament passed a decision which authorizes the Turkish army, for one year, to launch cross-border opiratioin into Kurdistan region and Iraqi territory, but the international efforts on national and international levels are going on for a peaceful solution for the crises. Amid this the Iraqi government sent several delegations to Turkey to find a solution for the issue and preventing the outbreak of a war in the area. Meanwhile a constitutional subject appeared which is the Iraqi federal government at what standard is free and independent in making its foreign policy?

The statuses of the Iraqi Regions, in that regard, are at what level?

Depending on the Iraqi constitution, however, according to article 110, the first item of this constitution the Iraqi government owns the authority to designate its foreign policy as part of its general policy, but that authority has been limited by measures which have been set for its administration in other articles and items of the Iraqi constitution.

Firstly, concerning the signing of international agreements the Iraqi government only owns the authority to sign international agreements then these agreements should be ratified by the Iraqi parliament in majority of 2/3 of its voters, depending on article 61, item 4.

Article 61,4th item stipulates: “The Iraqi parliament is authorized to the deed of passing international agreements and treaties according to a law which is to be passed by majority of 2/3 of its voters.”

Also, according to article 72, item 2 of the Iraqi permanent constitution, these international agreements should be issued and passed by the Iraqi parliament.

Since passing and signing any international agreement requires the consent of the Iraqi parliament and the Iraqi President, on one hand and on the other hand according to international law, any agreement to be implemented, should be passed by a local authority arranged by a law from the Iraqi parliament. In that frame work, KRG is recognized as an Iraqi Federal Region according to article 117 of the Iraqi constitution, therefore, in any problem and any case which causes hazards to the authority of the KRG and its border ,KRG should be consulted and not to be marginalized. Because any change, regarding those aspects requires the consent of the Kurdistan Region Parliament and the Kurdistan region population.

In this regard, the best example is the article 141 of the same Iraqi constitution which talks about the constitutional red lines and any constitutional changing which reduces the authority of the Federal Regions.

So, concerning this issue the Iraqi federal government is not free in its foreign decision foreign policy, since it is related to the border of Iraq and Kurdistan region, on one hand, and the military attacks on the Iraqi territory on the other hand.

Therefore, it is better that the peaceful solution to be the key option and Kurdistan region to be granted its position and not to be marginalized on pretexts that this issue is related to the diplomatic relations between two countries.

Any solution without the participation of the Kurdistan region will not have any impact on ending that tension and any military operation will cause instability in the area.

PUKmedia :: English - The Iraqi Federal Government at what Level is Free in its Foreign Policy?

President Talabani discusses with Maliki Results of the Iraqi Delegation’s visit to Turkey

President Jalal Talabani before noon today, Sunday, Visited the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mr. Nouri Al-Maliki and discussed with him the whole issue of Iraq and political developments and security challenges.

During the meeting, which was attended by Hoshiyar Zebari, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdelkader Mohamed Jassim Ubaidi, Minister of Defense and a number of members of the delegation to Turkey, the Iraqi political process and the outcome of the Iraqi delegation's visit to Turkey were discussed.

following the meeting during a press conference, President Talabani said: “Today we are honored to meet with the Prime Minister, Dr. Nuri al-Maliki and we discussed the general situation in the country, including the visit of the Iraqi delegation to Turkey, and we have supported the stance of the Iraqi delegation and appreciated their efforts, and we wish the Iraqi-Turkish relations to be appeased, improved and there will be mutual respect.”

President Talabani also said that he had discussed with the Prime Minister, several other issues and that their views were identical on the issues discussed.

His Excellency affirmed his support for the Prime Minister, Mr. Nouri Al-Maliki.

PUKmedia :: English - President Talabani discusses with Maliki Results of the Iraqi Delegation’s visit to Turkey

Iran favors Peaceful Solution on Kurds, Iraq says

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has told Iraq he supports a crackdown on Kurdish guerrillas in northern Iraq but wants a peaceful solution to the crisis, Iraq's government said.

A statement from Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's office released overnight said Ahmadinejad had phoned Maliki to discuss the issue. Turkey is massing troops on the border and threatening to invade if Iraq cannot stop cross-border attacks.

"The two men have agreed the necessity of confronting the terrorist activities of the PKK, which damage the interests of Iraq, Turkey and Iran," the statement said.

"They agreed that military action is not the sole option in dealing with the crisis, which should be resolved by peaceful means."

Ahmadinejad also phoned Iraqi President Jalal Talabani overnight, Talabani's office said.

PUKmedia :: English - Iran favors Peaceful Solution on Kurds, Iraq says

State of Emergency has not been announced in Kurdistan Region

Concerning whether KRG has taken any preparations about a possible Turkish military incursion into Kurdistan region territory, KRG official spokesman, Jamal Abdullah exclusively told PUK media today that he thinks such a possible Turkish military incursion is very far, therefore KRG neither announced state of emergency nor is expected to announce.

PUKmedia :: English - State of Emergency has not been announced in Kurdistan Region

Customs Police seize smuggled goods

Basra, Oct 28, (VOI) – Basra customs police seized a large amount of goods that have been smuggled from Umm al-Qasr Port and western Basra while they were en-route to be sold in markets, an Iraqi police source said on Sunday.

"Customs police forces seized on Saturday night a truck loaded with 473 rice bags which were intended to be distributed by ration cards. The amount seized was smuggled from Umm al-Qasr Port and were en-route to be sold in local markets," the head of the customs police in the 4th Zone, Colonel Khalaf al-Badran, told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI) by phone.

"The truck driver was arrested and handed over to concerned authorities," the source indicated.

Meanwhile, 25 vehicles and other 25 boat engines were also seized for illegally entering the area, he added.

"Customs police also confiscated dozens of smuggled sheep and 22 camels while they were on their way to a neighboring country," al-Badran noted.

The Shiite city of Basra lies 590 km south of the Iraqi capital Baghdad.

Aswat Aliraq