Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Iraq Worried By Oil Price, Eyes Syrian Pipeline - Oil Min

Iraq's Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani said Wednesday he's concerned by high oil prices above $90 a barrel ahead of a gathering next month of leaders from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Saudi Arabia.

"We do not want oil prices to reach a level that would cause recession in the world economy and reduce demand on oil and eventually lead to collapse in prices," al-Shahristani told reporters.

He said ministers in OPEC were undecided on whether to increase output to ease oil prices. Iraq, a founding OPEC member, isn't bound by the group's production ceilings at present.

Shahristani, speaking in Amman, Jordan, said that Iraq has capacity to pump up to 2.4 million barrels a day of crude but is constrained by a shortage of export facilities and a poor pipeline network.

The minister added that the country plans to reopen a disused pipeline that pumped up to 200,000 barrels a day of crude from Kirkuk to Banias in Syria to help boost exports.

He said Turkey has assured the Iraqi government that the country's northern oil export route will not be impeded by any military action against Kurdish militants.

Heads of state from 12-member OPEC are due to meet in Riyadh next month amid surging oil prices.

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Iraq Steps Up Efforts To Cut Off Supplies To Kurdish Rebels

Iraq will create more checkpoints along its northern frontier to keep out supplies for Kurdish rebels, who have been striking the Turkish military in raids across the border, the Iraqi foreign minister said Wednesday.

Separately, the British defense secretary confirmed that Britain plans to turn over security to Iraqis in the oil-rich southeastern province of Basra in mid-December.

Hoshyar Zebari said Iraq would set up the checkpoints along with the border with heavily Kurdish southeastern Turkey to stop fuel, food and other supplies from reaching the Iraq-based Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK.

Free Article - WSJ.com

Violence Ebbing in Iraq, Figures Show

Violent deaths of U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians appear to have fallen sharply in Iraq in October, according to the latest Associated Press tally.

The AP's figures mirror other reports that the levels of bloodshed are falling here. But the meaning of these statistics is disputed, and experts generally agree that the struggle for security and stability is far from over.

The number of Iraqi civilians killed fell from at least 1,023 in September to at least 875 in October, according to the AP count.

That's the lowest monthly toll for civilian casualties in the past year, and is down sharply from the 1,216 recorded in October 2006. The numbers are based on daily reports from police, ho****al officials, morgue workers and verifiable witness accounts.

The count is considered a minimum based on AP reporting; the actual number is likely higher, as many killings go unreported.

The drop in deaths among U.S. military personnel in Iraq was even more striking, according to AP's records down from 65 in September to at least 36 in October. The October figure is by far the lowest in the last year, and is sharply lower than the 106 deaths recorded in October 2006.

The relative period of calm if that's what it is came during the Muslim fast of Ramadan, a time when militants have in the past escalated their attacks on U.S. forces.

Max Boot, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former editorial editor for The Wall Street Journal, said the apparent decline in deaths reflected the success of the buildup in Iraq of U.S. military personnel, who now number 170,000. They have also moved increasingly out of massive forward operating bases into violence-plagued areas.

"I assume it's happening because the surge is working, and working even better than those who advocated it envisioned," said Boot, who was an advocate of expanding the deployment of U.S. troops here. "This is pretty dramatic."

But Anthony Cordesman, an expert on the Middle East and military affairs with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the numbers he's seen so far mostly reflect a decline in the level of lethal violence against U.S. troops in Baghdad and Anbar province.

Data collected by the General Accounting Office, he said, don't justify the conclusion that the overall level of fighting has fallen off, or that the number of civilian deaths is declining, because they don't paint a full picture of the conflict.

The statistics don't reflect attacks that result in injuries, he pointed out. Nor is there reliable reporting of civilian deaths outside of Baghdad.

"I don't question that the level of violence has gone down in Baghdad and Anbar," he said. "But what is not clear at all is that you have reduced the level of tension between Kurd and Arab, that the level of Shiite-on-Shiite violence is down, that the level of ethnic cleansing is down."

The reduction in U.S. losses, he said, is mostly a result of the revolt of the Sunni tribal leaders in Anbar against al-Qaida in Iraq, and not the U.S. military buildup.

And he warned that that revolt against al-Qaida was in jeopardy unless Sunni leaders get more support from the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad.

"Does focus on one set of numbers tell you that the country is moving toward stability, security and political accommodation?" Cordesman said. "The answer is no."

There may be other, grimmer reasons the civilian death toll has receded. Sunnis have been driven out of Shiite neighborhoods, Shiites from Sunni areas and Christians out of both.

Many Iraqis have fled their country, or seldom venture out of their communities, offering fewer targets for suicide bombers or kidnappers.
Even those who think Iraq has turned a corner don't necessarily believe that the U.S. should dramatically scale back its commitment of troops at least in the short term.

Boot warns that the U.S. will have to maintain a military presence in Iraq for many years to come.

"We're going to need a long-term buffer force in Iraq," he said. "We will still need troops there to assure both sides that they will not be left to the tender mercies of their enemies."

The Bush administration hopes to cut the number of U.S. combat brigades in Iraq by 25 percent by next summer. But some doubt that the Iraqi army will be ready to take responsibility for the country's stability by then.

Iraqi security services are still struggling to overcome divisions between Shiites and Sunnis and build truly national forces. Iraq's top political leaders, aligned along religious and ethnic lines, are sharply divided over where to lead the country.

Maintaining even relative calm here has taken tremendous effort. Baghdad, for example, has been turned into a fortress. Huge concrete blast walls ring buildings and highways, checkpoints choke traffic and Humvees equipped with weird protruding devices to foil roadside bombs roar through the streets.

The Iraqi government, with U.S. help, is in the process of trying to double the size of its national police force, from 16,000 to 33,000, in the space of just one year.

There has been talk among the U.S. military of declaring victory against al-Qaida here, according to news accounts, because of recent success in killing and capturing the terror group's leaders, and disrupting its networks.

Much of that progress has been made with the aid of Sunni leaders fed up with the group's violence.

The top commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, on Sunday lauded success in what had been some of the most volatile Sunni neighborhoods in Baghdad, including Ghazaliyah, Amariyah, Azamiyah and Dora. But he said al-Qaida remains "a very dangerous and very lethal enemy."

As if to underscore his words, a suicide bomber blew himself up Monday outside a police camp in the city of Baqouba, killing at least 29 people. The same day, Iraqi forces discovered 16 corpses in the basement shelter of a building in a Sunni-dominated area of Baghdad.

Brig. Gen. Qassim al-Moussawi blamed the killings on al-Qaida militants, who controlled the neighborhood until they were driven out about a month ago.

ABC News: Violence Ebbing in Iraq, Figures Show

Iran open to talks with US on Iraq

Tehran is willing to hold further talks with Washington on improving security in Iraq, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said on Wednesday.

Mottaki also said that Iran would present a plan on Iraq at a meeting of Iraq's neighbors in Istanbul this weekend but gave no details of what such a plan would propose.
Washington has said it is willing to attend a new round of talks with its long-time foe, whom it accuses of fuelling Iraq's sectarian violence by arming and funding Shiite militias. Iran denies the charge.

"About the readiness of the Americans for a new round of talks ... I respond that we do consider positively this initiative," Mottaki told a joint news briefing in Baghdad with his Iraqi counterpart Hoshiyar Zebari.

It was not clear whether he was referring to ambassadorial level talks or the sub-committee set up by Iran, Iraq and the United States to improve cooperation on Iraqi security. The committee has met only once, in August.

"I had a positive response from [Mottaki] that the Islamic Republic is ready to continue the dialogue because this is a very useful and important channel for dialogue and helping the situation in Iraq," Zebari told reporters.

The United States last week imposed sanctions on more than 20 Iranian companies, major banks and individuals and designated Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction and its Quds Force a supporter of terrorism.

The United States military says the Quds Force is supplying rockets, mortars and sophisticated roadside bombs to Shiite militias in Iraq to kill American soldiers and weaken the Iraqi government.

"Unfortunately, United States officials and the government of the United States are lying to their people. The Islamic Republic of Iran is sorry for the killing of people of Iraq, even American soldiers," Mottaki said.

Mottaki was in Baghdad for talks with Iraqi leaders ahead of the Istanbul conference.
"Our delegation participating in the conference will deliver a [plan] regarding the situation in Iraq," he said.

US ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker said last week that Iran's involvement in Iraq "continues to be a mixed, cloudy picture." He said he expected more talks with Iran, although no further meeting was scheduled.

Crocker has met twice with his Iranian counterpart to raise Washington's accusations of Iranian meddling in Iraq. His first meeting, in May, was considered groundbreaking as the two countries have not had diplomatic ties for almost 30 years.

Also on the Iraqi security front, the British defense secretary said Wednesday that the level of violence in the southeastern province of Basra was still not acceptable but they were at "the stage" where only the Iraqis can improve the situation.

Defense Secretary Des Browne, who was making his seventh visit to Iraq since taking office 18 months ago, made the comments as he confirmed that British-led forces will turn over security to Iraqis in the predominantly Shiite province in mid-December.

Basra will be the ninth of 18 provinces to revert to Iraqi control, de****e US President George W. Bush's prediction in January that the Iraqi government would have responsibility for security in all of the provinces by November.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who first announced the handover plans on Monday, promised during a meeting with Browne to continue to work to develop Iraqi security forces "in order to hasten the process of transferring the security files all over Iraq," his office said in a statement.

British-led forces already have pulled back from the center of the provincial capital to the airport outside the turbulent city.

Browne said that the British would remain prepared to help the Iraqis when needed and 500 troops principally involved in logistics would be based outside the country, mainly in Kuwait.

"I didn't say it was an acceptable level of security," he said when asked about recent violence in the city. "But we have reached the stage in Basra that it is very clear that if the situation is to improve there then it is the Iraqis themselves that will improve that situation." - Agencies

The Daily Star - Politics - Iran open to talks with US on Iraq

Iraqis say ready to take control of oil terminals

Iraqi soldiers aboard the patrol boat scan the waters around them before they give permission to U.S. sailors to approach the Gulf oil terminal.
For the first time since U.S.-led forces toppled Saddam Hussein more than four years ago, Iraqi soldiers are taking charge of protecting the country's greatest assets against insurgents under a plan to hand over control to Iraqis.

"The Iraqis are doing the job," said Australian Captain Philip Spedding, who manages coalition Northern Gulf operations. "They're the ones manning the gun positions and the radar, talking on the radio. It's close to transition point on the terminals."

Iraq's southern oil fields and export facilities have largely escaped the kind of insurgent attacks that had regularly hit pipelines and oil installations in other parts of Iraq.

But Iraqis guarding the two terminals point to neighboring states and saboteurs as potential threats. An armed Iranian lookout post is visible from one of the terminals.

Rival Shi'ite militias are vying for control of oil exports in southern Iraq, which contains the otherwise landlocked country's only access to the sea, as British troop gradually hand over control to Iraqis.

Sailors from U.S.-allied countries have been training Iraqis since soon after the 2003 invasion, in an effort to rebuild a navy devastated by sanctions and wars.

They said training was beginning to pay off.

Iraqi troops guarding the two terminals, on which the country's tattered economy relies, say they are ready to take full responsibility for their protection. U.S. and allied troops say they have largely cut their role to that of supervisors.

"We're 100 percent ready. Iraq was always capable, but after the oppression we saw under Saddam Hussein, we were in a bad state," said Hani, an Iraqi guarding a terminal. Iraqi troops are not allowed to give their full names for security reasons.

On Monday, Kerbala became the eighth of Iraq's 18 provinces to be formally handed over to Iraqi security forces.

VITAL VULNERABLE OIL

An OPEC member, Iraq has the world's third largest oil reserves, and relies on its main terminal in the south at Basra for exports of about 1.5 million barrels per day.

As oil prices creep towards $100 a barrel, the terminals' role in rebuilding Iraq's shattered economy increases.

Iraq's oil infrastructure has suffered frequent attacks by militants aiming to destabilize the country, by denying the government petrodollars to rebuild. At least three attacks on Iraqi oil pipelines were reported since September 19.

Three km (1.86 mile) exclusion zones ring each terminal after suicide bombers in speedboats attacked one platform in 2004. Iraq's Khor al-Amaya oil terminal is riddled with bullet and missile holes from Iraq's 1980-88 war with Iran.

BETTER TRAINING

Since April, ammunition allowances for training have been raised to some 3,500 rounds per person per week, from six rounds before, British troops monitoring Iraqi marine security said.

"They're out on their own. They're not being babysat... When we first arrived it was difficult to get them to wear their uniform, let alone be marines. Now they're functioning as a unit," Lieutenant Commander Iain Doran said.

A U.S. sailor said his Iraqi counterparts had learned to build a rapport with the crews of the vessels they inspect, compared to previous gun-toting and aggressive searches.

Many of the Iraqis working to guard the oil terminals were in Saddam's army, and they said better wages and services under coalition control had led to more professionalism and enthusiasm.

Growing attacks by militants in Iraq had also helped boost a sense of cohesion and purpose, others said.

Although Iraqis have been trained to take over oil terminal security, Australian and some Iraqi military sources said the main obstacle to an imminent handover was a lack of equipment.

Ten to 15 ships are needed to enforce the exclusion zones around both terminals alone, and Iraq only has five relatively small craft to police all its territorial waters, they said.

Logistical support, such as the provision of supplies and spare parts, was also lacking, they added.

"They might be competent from a human dimension, but is the equipment side there to support them consistently?.... The current patrol boats are small and there's not many of them," Spedding said, declining to give a timeline for readiness.

But most Iraqis protecting the terminals said they were ready and eager to take control regardless.
"We're ready to hold both terminals without any outside help... We have no doubt in our ability," Abu Yusef said.

Iraqis say ready to take control of oil terminals - Yahoo! News

AsiaCell postpones mobile service in Arbil

Arbil, Nov 1, (VOI) - The head of the AsiaCell's office in Arbil said on Thursday that the mobile service in the city, scheduled to start today, was postponed until further notice for "technical reasons."

"AsiaCell's mobile service in Arbil was postponed until further notice for technical failure in the network with Korek Telecom," Othman Farag told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).

"The Communication Ministry in Kurdistan will release a statement later on Thursday to explain reasons behind the postponement," he added.
An official source from the AsiaCell had said yesterday that the company will launch its services in the city of Arbil on Thursday.

"We will start our services in Arbil tomorrow. The company's subscribers in Iraq have reached three and a half million since its establishment in 2000," Abdullah Hassan told the VOI on Wednesday.

The Iraqi government had announced last August that MTC Atheer, AsiaCell, and Korek Telecom won the three licenses in the auction for mobile phone lines in Iraq, which was held in the Jordanian capital Amman.

AsiaCell was providing its services throughout Iraq, except Arbil and Duhuk, where Korek Telecom was the main provider.

Meanwhile, the Public Relations Official in MTC Atheer, Ussama Batti told the VOI on Wednesday that his company will start its services in the Kurdistan region by the end of the year.

"We started working in Kirkuk, while we remain in the experimental period in Mosul. The company will launch services in Kurdistan by the end of the year," he explained.

Mobile phone services were first launched in Iraq in early 2004 following the collapse of the former Iraqi regime and the Cairo-based Orascom Telecom Holdings, Kuwait's Mobile Telecommunications Co, and AsiaCell were the winners in an auction that drew 35 bidders. Under the then contracts, Orascom's network covered central Iraq, including Baghdad; AsiaCell served northern Iraq, while Atheer Tel (from Kuwait) operated in the south.

There are eight million mobile subscribers in Iraq which has 26 million inhabitants.

The fixed phone lines network was damaged because of sanctions imposed on the country after the invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
Less than 4 percent of the Iraqi people have fixed phone lines.

Aswat Aliraq

Turkey Closes its Air in front of the Flights from-to Kurdistan

The Turkish government started sanctions against Iraqi Kurdistan under the pretence of the authorities support for PKK. Turkey closed its air in front of the flights heading to and from Kurdistan Region as the Turkish Medias announced.

Turkish deputy PM Cemil Cecik said “the sanctions are against the PKK and who supports them.”

No further details were known about the sanctions, but according to news these sanctions may also include cutting of the electricity to Duhok Province and preventing productions from entering the Region.

PUKmedia :: English - Turkey Closes its Air in front of the Flights from-to Kurdistan




Turkish Official denies Reports that Airspace over Iraq closed

Top Turkish officials on Thursday denied media reports that Turkey had closed its airspace as part of economic sanctions against northern Iraq, saying flights were running as usual.

"We have not received any order to cancel flights, neither to the north nor to the south of Iraq," a top Turkish civil aviation official told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak with the press.

CNN-Turk later quoted Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as saying "there is no decision to shut down Turkish airspace," without further elaboration.

Turkey's NTV television reported that the airspace had been closed, but then later revised its report to say that civilian flights from Turkey to northern Iraq would be canceled, citing unidentified officials. It did not say when the ban may take effect.

Within the past two weeks Turkey has canceled some flights to northern Iraq for "technical reasons" but not as part of a ban, the official said.

"They were not fit to fly," he said, adding he was not aware of a pending ban on air traffic.

The reports came after Turkey said Wednesday that it had taken economic measures designed to weaken Kurdish rebels and groups that support it.

Although the Turkish government did not use the term "sanctions," its statement was widely interpreted as the beginning of a strategy to cut off economic support for suspected associates of the rebel Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK.

PUKmedia :: English - Turkish Official denies Reports that Airspace over Iraq closed

A Closed Meeting between President Barzani and British Defense Minister

British Defense Minister Dess Brown visited today Kurdistan Region to held meetings with the officials in region, and especially President Barzani.

According to the news, a closed meeting is holding now between President Barzani and the British minister in Saladin resort, Erbil.

PUKmedia :: English - A Closed Meeting between President Barzani and British Defense Minister

Kurdish Rebels Call on Ankara for Peace Plan

QANDIL, Iraq - A top Kurdish rebel based in northern Iraq called on Ankara to present a peace plan that could end his group's armed rebellion against Turkey, in an interview with AFP on Thursday.

"I call upon Turkey to be courageous and present a peace plan to solve the problem. In this way it is possible to have a ceasefire," said Abdul Rahman al-Chadirchi, a senior leader in the rebel Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

PUKmedia :: English - Kurdish Rebels Call on Ankara for Peace Plan

Britain to hand over security in south Iraq by mid-December

Britain's defense secretary, Des Browne, said yesterday that his government intends to hand over security for southern Iraq by mid-December. While he acknowledged that sectarian power struggles and gangsterism continue in oil-rich Basra province, Browne said he has seen evidence that Iraqi security forces are improving in their response to the infighting and violence.

Also yesterday, Iraq's foreign minister said the country was holding indirect talks with the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, that soon would lead to the release of several Turkish soldiers captured in recent border clashes with Iraq's northern neighbor.

Britain to hand over security in south Iraq by mid-December -- baltimoresun.com