Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Easy Scapegoat

Is the Iraqi prime minister to blame for his country's political stalemate?

Thursday, August 23, 2007; Page A18

AS THE CLOCK ticks toward a September evaluation of progress in Iraq, President Bush and congressional Democrats opposed to the war appear close to agreement on at least one key point: disappointment with the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Returning from a trip to Iraq, Sen. Carl M. Levin (D-Mich.), the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, on Monday called Mr. Maliki's government "non-functional" and urged the Iraqi parliament to vote it out of office. The next day Mr. Bush acknowledged "a certain level of frustration" and added that if the government didn't meet the demands of Iraqis, "they will replace the government." Mr. Bush retreated a little yesterday, saying Mr. Maliki was "a good guy" whom he supported, but the message was clear. Washington finds the Iraqi government's performance "extremely disappointing," as Ryan C. Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, put it.

The frustration is understandable enough. As American soldiers have fought and died to stabilize Baghdad and other key areas in recent months, the parallel progress toward political reconciliation expected by the White House -- and promised by Mr. Maliki -- has been virtually nonexistent. It's more likely than not that none of the major steps the administration hoped for by Sept. 15 -- a new oil law, constitutional changes, the curtailment of a ban on former Baathists -- will be completed. On the contrary, the divide between Mr. Maliki's Shiite alliance and Sunni parties seems to have grown, and the government's policies, whether in the distribution of reconstruction funds or the management of the police and army, continue to be tinged with sectarianism.

Mr. Maliki, who has scant personal support inside or outside of Iraq, makes an easy scapegoat. Yet Congress and the administration would be wrong to focus blame on him, for two reasons. First, the Iraqi prime minister's sectarianism is no worse than that of most of Iraq's current political leaders; the problem is not one of a single man or faction. Sunni politicians have contributed much to the paralysis in Baghdad. Last month they gave Mr. Maliki a week to meet a broad list of 11 demands, then withdrew from the government when, predictably, he did not deliver. The greatest obstacle to the oil law -- the measure the White House most counted on -- may be the uncompromising stance of Kurdish leaders.

More broadly, the frustration of Americans with Iraqis is based on the assumption that a political reconciliation among Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds is achievable within weeks or months. This is wishful thinking, driven by the common desire of the White House and Congress to end or at least wind down the U.S. mission. In fact, Iraqis are not yet ready to come to terms with each other and may not be for some years. They will settle their country's future on their own timetable, responding to events in Iraq rather than to pressure from Washington. Mr. Maliki is a poor prime minister, but a change of government would not quickly lead to the elusive accords. The coming debate about the future of the U.S. mission in Iraq needs to grapple with that reality.

washingtonpost.com

Analysis: Iraqi Leader's Flaws Impact US

Thursday, August 23, 2007; 3:03 AM

WASHINGTON -- Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was supposed to be the Bush administration's ticket out of Iraq _ a strong leader who could rap knuckles among the country's squabbling factions and speed the day when an independent Iraq could fend for itself.

After a disappointing year and a half in office, al-Maliki may still represent an opportunity for exit _ for those who see him as the personification of political paralysis and sectarian suspicion that the continued labors of U.S. troops cannot change.

"This frustration could become an exit strategy by default," said Carlos Pascual, director of foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution study center in Washington. "It's, 'The Iraqis didn't hold up their end of the bargain and so it's time to leave.'"

Pascual said that argument skips over the question of whether President Bush made bad decisions and hung unrealistic expectations on al-Maliki or anyone else who might try to unify warring Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds before they are ready to compromise.

Nonetheless, al-Maliki could be a convenient scapegoat in Washington, especially if the perception persists that even the White House has lost enthusiasm for him.

Democrats eager to quit the war as soon as possible, congressional Republicans increasingly at odds with Bush over Iraq and GOP presidential candidates looking for ways to part company with an unpopular Republican president can all point to al-Maliki as a bad gamble.

With a September deadline for a U.S. progress report on Iraq, the Bush administration had hoped to show that the al-Maliki coalition used a protective cushion of additional U.S. troops to finally pass symbolic laws such as one governing the sharing of oil profits.

There are now 162,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, of which 30,000 have arrived since February as part of Bush's revised strategy to stabilize Baghdad and to push Iraqi leaders to build a government of national unity.

Military efforts to stabilize the country have made strides in recent months, but political progress has lagged. The watershed September report will begin a political debate in earnest about how long the additional troops remain and when others might be redeployed or withdrawn.

On Wednesday, the Democratic presidential front-runner, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., joined Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, D-Mich., in urging the Iraqi legislature to get rid of al-Maliki _ and they urged the U.S. to bring its troops home.

Clinton voted in 2002 to authorize military action in Iraq and has since become a critic of the conflict. She traveled to Iraq just before launching her presidential campaign in January and expressed reservations about al-Maliki's leadership upon her return.

Washington speculation about al-Maliki's fate heated up Monday when Levin, back from a trip to Iraq, called al-Maliki's fractured coalition government "nonfunctional."

Bush and the U.S. ambassador in Iraq both gave blunt assessments of political stagnation in Baghdad a day later, and the president said it would be up to the Iraqi people to decide if their government deserved to be replaced.

After al-Maliki replied that he would "pay no attention" to his American critics and if necessary "find friends elsewhere," Bush tried to smooth things over.

Bush called al-Maliki a "good man with a difficult job" and said he supports the Shiite leader. The White House added the line to a speech arguing the case for remaining in Iraq de****e doubts and frustrations.

"As long as I am commander in chief we will fight to win," Bush said to heavy applause from a Veterans of Foreign Wars conference. "I'm confident that we will prevail."

Al-Maliki, seen by his rivals as too sectarian and even by some of his partisans as too weak, has been unable to deliver political reconciliation or any of the big legislative markers that the Bush administration has set.

"He hasn't really addressed even the two or three really critical things he could have maybe done something about," said Frederick Barton, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies' international security program.

Bush has stuck by al-Maliki as U.S. support for the war dropped and violence spread among the major Iraqi sectarian and ethnic groups. He made a point of rallying to al-Maliki last year, when a leaked memo from his White House national security adviser questioned al-Maliki's abilities.

Bush administration officials freely express dissatisfaction with al-Maliki's performance, and that of other Iraqi politicians, as U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker did on Tuesday, but there does not seem to be much appetite among U.S. officials to replace him.

Alternative candidates might be even less effective, or would take months to form the alliances needed to get something done. The process of picking a new leader could also be a repeat of the agonizing months of bickering that sapped U.S. and Iraqi support for the new democratic government early last year.

washingtonpost.com

Originally Posted by Lucky142

Britain should take a hard look at this withdrawal and renew a pact to stay the course until this thing is finished.

The British Government never had the full support from the British people to go into Iraq in the first place. The pressure on the Government to withdraw has been enormous.

History of Petrel Resources

Iraqi Hydrocarbon Law to benefit Irish Oil Company: Petrel Resources plc well placed to prosper in Iraq

The Iraqi authorities awarded Petrel in 2005, the contract to develop the Subba & Luhais oilfields located in Southern Iraq to a minimum capacity of 200,000 barrels of oil per day and 120 million cubic feet of associated gas. This $197 million development services contract (EPC) was the first contract awarded after the fall of Saddam in 2003.

Petrel Resources is an Irish and London listed oil exploration company established in the early 1980s. The Company moved from London’s Ofex Market to the London Stock Exchange’s Alternative Investment Market (AIM) in August 2000. The company made a loss of €415,570 in 2006.

Iraqi Hydrocarbon Law to benefit Irish Oil Company: Petrel Resources plc well placed to prosper in Iraq

SPAM ALERT

Marek (PM is down or I'd PM you....)

GFF is at it again....got another spam message from them with your return address.


e-mail me for a copy of it as I cannot send mail to [email protected] (fails)

Bush stresses support for the owners Wednesday and pledged not to abandon the Iraqi people
Thursday, August 23, 2007

Translated version of http://www.iraqhurr.org/

President Jalal Talabani suggesting that France investment in the oil industry and contribute to the reconstruction operations, and a visit to Syria Maliki entail a package of agreements

Thursday, August 23, 2007

The main axis of the Iraq file news for today :

- Questions about the position of the American administration Maliki
- President Jalal Talabani suggesting that France investment in the oil industry and contribute to the reconstruction operations
- Maliki visit to Syria entail a package of agreements

The cost of the past few days are signs that the United States took wash its hands of the Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. In this context comes the announcement in Baghdad by American Ambassador Ryan Crocker that he was disappointed at the lack of progress in the political process. American President himself has ceased to praise entrusted to the owners said in a press conference held late Tuesday in Canada :
"There is a process and the fundamental question that arises is, whether the government will meet the people's demands? The government failed to meet the people's demands pattern government again. This is left to the Iraqis, that their decision, American politicians. "

Bush's talk came one day after the call by prominent members of the U.S. Congress the House to dismiss the Iraqi government and al-Maliki saying it had failed to achieve a political settlement.
White House spokesman Gordon جوندرو said in turn that President Bush believes that al-Maliki and the Iraqi Presidential able to reach some sort of political arrangement that President Bush urging that whenever they occur, according to the spokesman.

Also on Tuesday described the American ambassador in Baghdad, Ryan Crocker progress at the political level as disappointing to a large extent for all the parties concerned, including Americans, Iraqis and even for the leadership itself, as he said then explained that the Americans and the Iraqi people are awaiting the results of a reminder that the American support for the government of Maliki not open to it indefinitely. However, Crocker also described the problems facing Iraq as a difficult but possible to address them and called for granting more time for these efforts. He also said that Washington would continue to support the government made last-Maliki with genuine efforts to achieve national reconciliation and then confirmed that these efforts are not responsible Maliki alone, but the responsibility of the entire government.

The response to the criticisms of the American Maliki today during his stay in Syria, saying only the right to impose a timetable on the elected government, attributed such criticism to the American elections draw nearer.
The Associated Press quoted Al-Maliki said in Damascus :
"One has no right to impose a timetable on the Iraqi government are popularly elected government," as he said, in reference to the conditions set by Washington and asked the government to achieve national reconciliation in the framework. Maliki was speaking at a press conference at the conclusion of his visit to Syria, "perhaps annoyed the person who made these statements in the nature of our visit to Syria," according to him, also said that such statements did not care much, but what is important is to ensure the democratic experience and commitment to the Constitution and we could find Friends in other places ", as mentioned by al-Maliki, who said also that some of the statements that are made by officials or legislators Americans Irresponsible statements.

This happens every few weeks ago to lift the American Ambassador Ryan Crocker and General David بيترايوس commander of the American forces in Iraq report to Congress in mid-September on the evolution of the situation on both the political and security report, which might change the American policy in Iraq.

Mustafa Al-Ani Director of the Department of National Security and Terrorism Studies at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai, noted in an exclusive Radio Free Iraq that the United States, which causes them to the dissatisfaction with the Maliki :
"Over almost a year since recognizes Maliki premiership, but was unable to introduce any political reforms were not able to achieve what I was expecting the United States. Now the United States is not doing anything that does not help the country to stability and that is too weak to be able to solve most of the militias and to be able the amendments to the Constitution or to address other issues, such as the issues of police and the army. "

Ani is also expected that in the case of the replacement of one person the Prime Minister is likely to be through the House and is chosen person is supported by the Council :
"They choose the personality from within the House, personal enjoyed the support of the Board and be one of the major Shiite parties also. However, the personal change may be useful because the House believed that al-Maliki very weak person is not a question here that the prime minister Shiite or not but relate the type of personality too. "

Political analyst Mustafa Ani noted that Maliki is losing support within the House as expressed good-Shamari, from the Virtue Party, saying :

(Voice Hassan Shamri)

While Abdel-Karim al-Samarra'i of the Iraqi Accord Front :
(Voice Abdul Karim Samurai)

In the meantime, President Jalal Talabani said that the withdrawal of Ministers of a democratic government does not mean that the government would collapse because of the absence of the ministers. This came in an interview with Talabani French newspaper Le Monde also responded to the proposal put French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who arrived in Baghdad on a surprise visit last Sunday. Kouchner had called for a conference outside Iraq in which all Iraqi political view to reaching an agreement, however, Talabani said that such a conference was not necessary and added that the Iraqi political talk with each other within their own country and meet one another every day and that everyone involved in this dialogue and thus these politicians will find a means of the agreement without the need to convene an international conference, as saying.
Talabani suggested that France contributing in the form of investments in the oil sector in the form of assistance in reconstruction and welcomed the visit Kouchner, described the visit as historic because it was the first French official to visit Baghdad since the fall of the former regime. It is noteworthy that Kouchner also called during his visit to Iraq to the French role and more international in Iraq.

He spent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki three-day visit to Syria accompanied by a delegation comprising a number of ministers and officials in various sectors.
Radio Free Iraq correspondent in Damascus Jumblatt شكاي summarized us different outcomes of the visit in the following report :

(Report جانبلاط شكاي correspondent of Radio Free Iraq in Damascus)

(Conclusion)

IRAQHURR.ORG

Economic Report

Iraqi Finance Minister talking about the budget, inflation, debt, Russian decision striking a large proportion of Iraq's debt

Thursday, August 23, 2007


Preparation and submission : Nazim Yasin

- These include the new program (economic report) up to the statements made by Iraqi Finance Minister Baqir Jabr strike during his recent visit to the Jordanian capital, and addressed economic issues including multilateral funds for the reconstruction of infrastructure and the public budget and oil production, inflation and debt.
In an interview today with Russian economic analyst for the resolution referred to by the Minister of Finance on the approval of the Iraqi Moscow to write off 93% of Iraq's debts.

- Finance Minister talking about the Iraqi budget, inflation and debt
As Finance Minister Baqir Jabr Iraqi strike magnitude of the funds required to rebuild the infrastructure in Iraq, including at least one hundred billion dollars.
He explained in statements made Monday during his recent visit to the Jordanian capital, that the Iraqi government needs to be between 100
And $ 150 billion at least for the renewal of infrastructure drainage, water and electricity to the bridge and the necessary needs of the population, after years of violence that destroyed many vital installations in the country's economy.
Reuters quoted him as saying that so far spent about four billion dollars on infrastructure projects during the current year is more than the total spent in the year 2006 when the cause of internal violence and the limited ability of the Iraqi private sector to use about 40% of the six billion dollars earmarked for in the budget.
It should be noted that the overall budget for 2007 has allocated fourteen billion dollars of investment. He quoted the Iraqi official that the government withdrew $ 7.4 billion from the Development Fund for Iraq, which deposited the proceeds of Iraqi oil and supervised by the United Nations.
He also pointed out that carried more than ten billion dollars of oil revenues deposited in the Development Fund for Iraq account at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York had not been used during the past year due to lack of implementation of projects.
He expected the Minister of Finance to inform the Iraqi draft budget for next year about 36 billion dollars based on current estimates of the production of oil. This means that the total anticipated budget for 2008 will be reduced by five billion dollars on the budget for the current year amounting to 41 billion dollars.
With regard to oil production, which provides a larger proportion of the general budget funds, the Iraqi official said that he had risen to 1.6 million barrels a day in July from an average of 1.5 million barrels a day in the first half of the current year. The oil production during the first six months of 2007 affected by the damage to the pipeline that links Kirkuk to the Turkish port of Ceyhan in the Mediterranean.
The Finance Minister also pointed to expectations of the Iraqi government to increase oil output soon to 1.7 million barrels a day. In this regard, quoted him as saying that the Oil Ministry plans based on the return of Iraq to export 3.4 million barrels per day, representing its share of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is expected to regain the economy recovered when it reaches this level of exports.
With regard to inflation, he said that he carried hit 46% during the period to June 2007 decreased by 57% during the first half of last year. He added that core inflation, which does not include fuel and transport decreased to 19% from 32%.
The Iraqi Minister of Finance talked about many economic aspects in a press conference held in Amman and was attended by Radio Free Iraq correspondent super Rasul Sarhan.
It was announced during the conference that the Iraqi delegation headed by Iraqi Central Bank Governor Sinan Shabibi will fly to Riyadh to complete talks on the final action to write off the debt owed to the queen Arabia and up to fifteen billion dollars.
On the subject of Iraq's debts also said that Moscow had agreed to write off 93% correlation denied this approval oil deal between Iraq and Russia.

(Follow-up press conference for the Iraqi finance minister - Oman)

- Russian decision striking a large proportion of Iraq's debt
The Iraqi Finance Minister Baqir Jabr strike in the statements made by the Amman correspondent reported Radio Free Iraq in the context of the follow-up voice, referring to previous recent Russian decision to write off a large proportion of Iraq's debts should be denied against a possible oil deal between the two countries.
It is expected that the Iraqi minister will fly to Moscow next week to agree on the details of the implementation of this resolution.
The observers pointed to a possible link between the decision to write off the debt and that Baghdad was ready to activate the old oil contracts with Russian companies in particular that the Iraqi Oil Minister Hussein Shahrastani had been conducted recently in Moscow talks on boosting bilateral cooperation in the field of energy.
More details in the context of the report which follows the audio briefing by Radio Free Iraq correspondent Mikhail الاندارينكو contains an interview with Russian Elena سوبونينا Analyst.
"Finance Minister announced that the Iraqi statement Jabr arrive to Moscow next week to hold talks on the details of the procedures for writing off Russia deserves its old Iraqi debts.
The Iraqi Finance Minister expressed the hope that Moscow remove 93% of Iraq's debts worth 13 billion dollars.
He also pointed out that his country does not link debt cancellation to offer concessions to Moscow in the extraction of Iraqi oil.
In an interview with Radio Free Iraq, the Russian Political Analyst Dr. Elena سوبونينا doubted that Moscow can benefit from the debt write-off Baghdad in order to entrench its place in the Iraqi oil industry. "

(Interview with the Analyst Elena سوبونينيا)

(Conclusion)

Translated version of http://www.iraqhurr.org/

What is holding up the delivery of the long-awaited Iraqi oil law?

by Munir Chalabi

August 22, 2007

As deadline after deadline and benchmark after benchmark passes and with all the pressure imposed by the IMF, the US Administration, the US oil lobby and International Oil Companies (IOCs) on the Iraqi government, the oil law, against all the odds, refuses to be born.

Desp ite all the attempts by the Occupation's Governing Council (GC) and its appointed puppet, Allawi's Government, as well as the efforts by both of the elected governments, several US/IMF deadlines have passed including one in December 2006, then in March, May and the latest one in July 2007, but the draft of the law has not even been presented officially to the Federal Parliament in Baghdad.

In parallel with all these deadlines and benchmarks, we have seen several versions of the drafts for the new Iraqi oil law leaked one way or another to the international press. This includes one in June 2006, another on January 15, then February 15, June 25, and finally July 3, 2007.

Many international political analysts and oil experts cannot comprehend how such unprecedented pressure can fail to produce results.

The answer to this is to be found within the methodology used in investigating the reasons behind the failure of the US Administration in achieving their objectives.

Analysts must not only look for external influences on any US plan in Iraq but they should also study and analyze the internal Iraqi causes affecting the success or the failure of the plan.

A. External factors and influences:

External influences were for the most part, behind the approval of a draft of the oil law, which will be the first and major step in the privatization of Iraqi oil wealth and will ensure that the oil will be produced and marketed by the IOCs with enormous profit to them.

Neither the US Republican administration nor the Democrats had any disagreement with this policy and made the approval of the oil law a benchmark for future US strategy in Iraq within the Iraqi Study Group report.[1]

The IMF made the approval of the oil law one of the main conditions for reducing the Iraqi international debts, as declared in December 1, 2005 in the Paris meetings between the IMF and representatives of the Iraqi Government.

The IOCs were united in their approval of the oil law and there were no indications from any of them to the contrary.

In addition, we have to remember that Iraq is still under US occupation. Over 180,000 US/multinational troops and over 50,000 active mercenaries are putting all types of pressure on the Iraqi government and parliament to ensure the success of the US oil plans.

Several international organizations which oppose the oil Law, including a number of environmental groups, anti-occupational movements and several international trade unions[2] provide vital support to the Iraqi anti-oil law movements and had very positive media campaigns. However, their effectiveness was understandably limited, as they could not influence the international decision-making powers.

B. Domestic influences and factors:

There are several Iraqi factors behind all the delays in the delivery of the oil law and these include:

1. The Disagreement between the Central Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government on several issues of the law including who should control the strategic oil policies and which giant oil fields should be given to the IOCs. The Kurdish Government insisted that several of the major oil fields which are allocated to the Iraqi National Oil Company under annex 2 of the draft, be moved to annex 3 in order to be given to the IOCs.

2. Increased Iraqi public awareness and pressure -- the public awareness has increased noticeably in the past year against the oil law. We have seen this public pressure mounting because of:

· An increased awareness by the public of the Iraqi civil society organizations, trade unions, in particular the IFOU ("Iraqi Federation of Oil Unions"[3]), oil experts[4], economists and the Iraqi media concerning the threat of the oil law on the future of the sovereignty of the nation, which has consequently increased the opposition to the law.

· More and more MPs are calling for the law to be carefully studied before its approval. The Iraqi parliament has gone into summer recess without discussing the oil law, but up until now the only members who are openly standing against the oil law are the MPs from Sadr's Movement and some individual members from the "Iraqi Accord," the Dawa Party and some independent MPs.

· The "State Shuraa Council," which is the highest legal office in the Iraqi Ministry of Justice, submitted on July 25, 2007, 13 legal comments on the "Draft Oil & Gas Law" to the Iraqi government. The main points included the need to first re-establish the Iraqi National Oil Company which was dissolved by the Baath regime in 1987 (in their first step to privatize the nation's oil wealth) before the Oil & Gas Law is be put to parliament. Also the Council emphasized the importance of the leading role of the central government in planning the strategic policies concerning the future of the nation's oil and gas wealth in accordance with the needs of article 111 of the Iraqi Constitution. The third vital comment by the Council was their recommendation that all agreements with any international oil companies should be approved by the Iraqi Parliament.

The Council's comments made it more difficult for the Iraqi Government to push the Draft Oil Law through the Iraqi Parliament.

· The latest Oil poll, which was carried out in June and July 2007 by KA Research, has shown that the Iraqis oppose plans to open the country's oil fields to foreign investment by a factor of two to one (63% oppose to 31% for).

3. The security crises: More and more Iraqis are questioning the wisdom of trying to rush the Oil & Gas law through parliament while the country is in such a devastating state.

· Thousands of innocent civilians are slaughtered every month due to suicide bombings by the Al-Qaeda/Baathist terrorists, the occupying forces' military attacks, the secret CIA controlled death squads and the sectarian clashes.

· Most Iraqi cities and towns have either no or severe shortages of electricity, clean water and other basic life necessities

· People are afraid to stay in their homeland and around four million are displaced, many driven from their homes by force.

Conclusions:

The legislation of the new Iraqi Oil & Gas Law by the Iraqi parliament has become the most important benchmark of the US Administration, its oil lobbies, the IOCs, the IMF, and the occupying forces. The Bush administration wants this law to be passed as soon as possible, whatever the cost to the Iraqi people.

The failure of the US policies in the occupation of Iraq, the success of the Democratic Party in the 2006 elections in controlling both legislative houses in the US, and the presidential elections next year, have made the Bush Administration and its allies more desperate in their attempts to reach a successful conclusion on the oil law in order to prepare the ground for a partial US withdrawal from Iraq, within the lifetime of this administration.

This has led to enormous pressure being imposed by the US administration and its forces on the ground in Iraq on Al-Maliki's government in the past eight months. They insisted that the government should go ahead and get this oil law approved by parliament, together with the re-Baathification law, and other privatization laws such as the privatization of the Iraqi oil processing industries which they succeeded in passing through parliament three days before the start of summer session.

The Bush Administration and their Ambassador in Baghdad had openly threatened to replace Al-Maliki's government with a new government, headed by their man in Iraq -- the old Baathist, Iyad Allawi. Al-Maliki has openly accused Allawi in several speeches of attempting to overthrow his government with the help of some units of the Iraqi army and security generals including the head of the Iraqi security forces, the old Baathist general Mohammed Al-Shahwani. These generals were appointed to their positions during Allawi's appointed government by the last US official administrator Paul Bremer back in May 2004, and are still taking their orders directly from the US embassy in Baghdad.

The US administration recognized that a US-led military coup d'etat would not result in any laws being recognized as legitimate by the international community if parliament were to be dissolved. They therefore moved to a new policy, which involved direct interference with the political process in Iraq through their more reliable allies to reorganize the political alliance on which the government relied in order to achieve their goals. They finally succeeded in achieving the establishment of such a front, which was called the "The front of the moderates" on August 15, between the two main Kurdish parties (KDP and PUK), two of the Shiite parties (the SCIRI and Al-Dawa party -- the Al-Maliki wing is called the "External organization"), with negotiations still ongoing to persuade the Islamic Party/Accord front -- the main Sunni party -- to join this new alliance.

The US administration made it clear that the new Iraqi government has important targets to accomplish, and they listed the oil law as the first priority and the re-Baathification law as a second main concern.

The claim of the US Administration that the oil and gas law will allow all Iraqis to share the oil revenue is no more than another peace of misinformation, as the "Revenue Sharing Law" is a separate federal revenue law which is still being negotiated between the different Iraqi parties representing all sectors of Iraqi society.

The US Administration is aware that time is not on their side, especially when it concerns the oil law. They now recognize that as more people come to understand the law, this will increase the chance of its defeat. This was the main reason behind all the attempted secrecy that surrounded any information about the oil law.

The latest oil poll which was carried out in June and July 2007 by KA Research has shown that the vast majority of Iraqis (91%) did not feel informed enough about the oil law. This included the 33% who said they knew a little information on the law, 30% who said that they were not very informed and 28% that stated that they knew nothing about it.

If the formation of the new political right wing alliance succeeds, then this will create for the first time, perilous circumstances which will allow the oil and gas law together with other US benchmarks to be passed through the Iraqi parliament within the next few months.

This danger is very real and should be seriously considered by all the parties who are opposing the law in their future planning.

There have been several attempts by some Iraqi groups opposing the law to raise several important issues, in order to prevent the law being approved by parliament within the near future. Issues such as this law should be treated as sovereignty issues due to their affect on the future of the nation and therefore should only be passed by a referendum.

It is time for the US administration to recognize that their attempts to get the Iraqi parliament to approve this oil law by using all manner of pressure and threats, will not guarantee their chances of succeeding in implementing a law which does not reflect the interests of Iraqis in any shape or form, in the near and long term future, as was the case with many of their original plans.

It is international law which states that the occupying forces have no right to impose laws which reflect their interests only, and do not reflect the interests of the occupied people and that such laws are null and void if any future elected Iraqi parliament declares them to be so.

ZNet |Iraq | What is holding up the delivery of the long-awaited Iraqi oil law?

That does it, Lunar, you've got me hitting the old bottle again...




Un-easy stomach-ally,

Thelema