Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Sunnis want reforms before return to power: Iraqi vice president

Iraqi Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi said here Friday that his Sunni party has no immediate intention to return to the embattled Baghdad government unless its demands for reform are met.

"We have no such plan or desire at the moment," Hashimi told reporters after talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul.

"If the government moves on our reform package listing the expectations of the Sunni bloc, we could return to the government. The reform package is a precondition," he said.

The Sunni National Concord Front, led by Hashimi's Iraqi Islamic Party, quit Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki's unity government on August 1, leaving him with only 23 ministers in the 40-member cabinet.

The Front accuses the government of failing to rein in Shiite militias and of the arbitrary arrest and detention of Sunni citizens.

In a bid to save his crumbling government, Maliki, a Shiite, has formed a new alliance of Shiite and Kurdish factions, but the Front has slammed it as a futile exercise.

Gul, for his part, urged Hashimi to reconsider his position, underlining that sectarian and ethnic rifts could jeopardize Iraq's unity.

"The situation in Iraq is not easy, but evryone should know that any kind of break-up would not be a solution but the worst situation," the Turkish minister said.

"The Middle East is already a region with problems and it could not bear such a burden. A break-up is not an alternative either for Iraqis or for Iraq's neighbours," he added.

Gul underlined Ankara's support for a national compromise in Iraq embracing all Iraqi groups.

"We say that the more inclusive this compromise is, the better," he said. "We are in contact with all groups in Iraq and are encouraging them in this direction."

Turkey fears that the turmoil in Iraq may result in the disintegration of its southern neighbour and lead to the creation of an independent state in the autonomous Kurdish-held north of Iraq.

Such a state, Ankara fears, could threaten its own stability, setting an example for its own restive Kurdish community.

Turkish officials accuse Kurdish leaders running northern Iraq of turning a blind eye to, and even supporting, armed Turkish Kurd rebels using bases in their region to attack Turkey as part of their 23-year separatist campaign.

Earlier this month, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Maliki signed a memorandum of understanding to end the safe haven that the rebels of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) enjoy in northern Iraq.

Hashimi assured Turkey that he opposed the PKK presence in his country.
"We cannot accept Iraq to become a source of terrorism... an area which poses a threat to its neighbours," he said.

Ankara has threatened a cross-border operation to strike at PKK bases if Baghdad and Washington fail to curb the group, listed as a terrorist organisation by Ankara and much of the international community.

Hashimi, who also met with Erdogan Thursday, was to wrap up his visit later in the day.

Sunnis want reforms before return to power: Iraqi vice president | Iraq Updates

13 killed as US troops battle Baghdad militants

US soldiers battled Shiite fighters in Baghdad on Friday, killing 13 people, a day after a fierce clash between Al-Qaeda militants and a rival group left dozens dead.

US attack helicopters fired on Shiite militants in Baghdad's northwestern Shuala neighbourhood in the pre-dawn firefight, killing 13 people, including two women, a medic and security officials told AFP.

Shuala is one of the main strongholds of the Mahdi Army, the Shiite militia loyal to anti-American Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

Doctor Mohammed Abbas from the Al-Noor Ho****al in Shuala said the facility had received 13 corpses of those slain.

"Those dead were killed by shrapnel and two of them are women," he said, suggesting that some of the dead could be civilians. "We have also admitted 15 wounded people."

The US military said eight militants were killed after one of its patrols came under attack.

"We have initial reports that an American patrol was engaged by small arms fire in Shuala this morning resulting in eight enemy killed in action," it said in a statement to AFP.

An Iraqi security official said US troops clashed with militiamen between 3:00 am (2300 GMT Thursday) and 5:00 am (0100 GMT) Friday.

"American soldiers in helicopters fired at militants in Shuala area before dawn," he told AFP on condition of anonymity.

Hamdallah al-Rikabi, a spokesman for Sadr's movement in western Baghdad, confirmed the clashes.

Pictures by an AFP photographer showed a car riddled with bullets, its window panes completely shattered.

Hundreds of Iraqi Shiites later took the dead to the central holy city of Najaf for burial, the photographer said.

Beating their chests and chanting anti-American slogans, the mourners loaded the coffins draped in Iraqi flags on taxis and vans and proceeded to Najaf.

In the past few weeks the US military has killed or captured dozens of Shiite militants from splinter groups who it says have broken away from the main Mahdi Army and indulged in attacks on coalition and Iraqi forces.

The clashes came a day after suspected Al-Qaeda fighters battled police and members of a rival Sunni insurgent group in a town northeast of Baghdad.

The battle in the town of Kanan in the restive Diyala province left at least 23 people dead, including a Sunni sheikh who had recently turned his support to the police to fight Al-Qaeda in Iraq group, police said.

The US military claims that a number of Sunni tribal chiefs and representatives have started supporting coalition and Iraqi forces to fight Al-Qaeda in Iraq militants, blamed for much of violence besetting the country.

Iraqi forces were meanwhile stepping up security in the central holy city of Karbala ahead of the expected arrival of hundreds of thousands of Shiite pilgrims to mark the anniversary on Tuesday of the birth of Imam Muhammad al-Mahdi, Shiite Islam's 12th imam and one of the most revered.

Shiite Muslims believe the imam disappeared centuries ago from the northern Iraqi town of Samarra and will return one day to save the world.

Police Brigadier General Raed Shawkat of Karbala province said checkpoints were being installed across the Shiite region which has the restive Sunni province of Anbar to the west.

"We have set up checkpoints to ensure gunmen do not enter the province," he said, adding a vehicle curfew would be imposed from Saturday.

Over the past few years Sunni extremists have regularly attacked Shiite pilgrims during various festivals in Iraq.

The US military announced one more American soldier had died and four were wounded in an explosion in the northern Iraqi province of Salaheddin on Friday.

His death brought the military's losses in Iraq since the March 2003 invasion to 3,722, according to an AFP count based on Pentagon figures.

13 killed as US troops battle Baghdad militants | Iraq Updates

Iraqi leadership precarious, US intelligence warns

US spy agencies have given a grim assessment of Iraq's future, warning that the leadership is unable to govern effectively and a drawdown of US forces could increase sectarian violence.

The new intelligence estimate released Thursday also predicted that security improvements made over the past six months will erode if the US military narrows its mission to supporting Iraqi security forces and fighting Al-Qaeda.

The update, which represents the consensus of 16 US intelligence agencies, comes just weeks before General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, and US Ambassador Ryan Crocker offer their own assessment of US strategy in a report due on September 15.

The US intelligence community "assesses that the Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition" as well as Sunni and Kurdish parties, the new estimate warned.

Barring "a fundamental shift in factors driving Iraqi political and security developments," compromises needed for "sustained security, long-term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to emerge," the assessment said.

The declassified judgments of the assessment were released by the office of the Director for National Intelligence Mike McConnell, and came amid mounting US frustration over the lack of political progress in Iraq.

Attempts by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to bridge Iraq's ethnic and sectarian divides have so far failed. Seventeen members of his 40-person cabinet have resigned, and the daily bloodshed takes a stiff toll on ordinary Iraqis.

Iraqi leaders who are already "unable to govern effectively" will struggle to achieve national political reconciliation, it warned.

Since its January assessment there have been "measurable but uneven" improvements in Iraq's security, the report said, adding however that the "level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high."

Earlier in the year US President George W. Bush ordered 30,000 more troops to Iraq -- boosting US forces on the ground to 160,000 -- in a bid to improve security.

Iraqi security forces have performed adequately, but have not improved enough to conduct major operations independent from US-led coalition forces, the report said.

Changing the coalition's mission to focus on providing combat support for Iraq's security forces and fighting Al-Qaeda "would erode security gains achieved thus far," it warned.

The conclusions could be used by the Bush administration to justify prolonging the surge, de****e growing domestic opposition to the war and calls for a troop drawdown.

The White House said the assessment shows that US strategy "has improved the security environment in Iraq, but we still face very tough challenges ahead."

"This is a government that is learning, frankly, learning how to govern. And, no, it is not moving nearly as fast as everyone in Washington would like it to move," said spokesman Gordon Johndroe, reiterating support for the government "because they are trying right now in Baghdad to move forward."

Just hours after the assessment came out influential Republican Senator John Warner urged Bush to start a limited withdrawal of US troops from Iraq by Christmas.

The move would send a signal the Maliki administration and regional nations that the US commitment to Iraq is not open-ended, said Warner, who returned recently from Iraq.

"Certainly in 160,000-plus (US troops in Iraq), say, 5,000 could begin to redeploy and be home to their families and loved ones no later than Christmas of this year," he said.

The United States "simply cannot, as a nation, stand and put our troops at continuous risk of loss of life and limb without beginning to take some decisive action which will get everybody's attention," Warner said.

He added: "I really firmly believe the Iraqi government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Maliki, have let our troops down."

The intelligence report said that perceptions of a US pullout "probably will encourage factions anticipating a power vacuum to seek local security solutions that could intensify sectarian violence and intra-sectarian competition.

Maliki has so far failed to deliver any major pieces of legislation aimed at promoting reconciliation between Sunnis and Shiites.

Bush this week expressed his frustration with the lack of progress, only to reaffirm his support for Maliki the following day, calling him a "good man with a difficult job."

Iraqi leadership precarious, US intelligence warns | Iraq Updates

Iraq ex-president dies in Jordan
Abdel Rahman Aref dies of natural causes at age of 91 in Amman.

Former Iraqi president Abdel Rahman Aref, who was ousted by Saddam Hussein's Baath party in 1968, died in Jordan on Friday at the age of 91, his family said.

Aref, who had been living in Amman for three years, died of natural causes at Al-Hussein Medical Centre, a military ho****al in the Jordanian capital, according to a family source.

Aref, who is survived by five children, took part in the 1958 military coup led by his brother Abdel Salam Aref that overthrew the Iraqi monarchy.

After his brother died in a helicopter crash, he ruled the country from 1966 to 1968, until he himself was ousted in a Baathist coup and then lived in exile in Turkey before returning in 1979.

Saddam's Baath party ruled Iraq for decades until it was toppled by the US-led invasion of 2003.

Iraq ex-president dies in Jordan | Iraq Updates

US general warns of bloody ‘Ramadan Offensive’ in Iraq
US intelligence warns that Iraq's government to become more precarious in coming months.

A senior US general warned Thursday of "sensational" attacks during the upcoming Ramadan period in Iraq directed at swaying perceptions of a key upcoming US report on progress in the war there.

Brigadier General Richard Sherlock, deputy director for operational planning for the Pentagon's Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that insurgents are likely to attempt to make use of the coincident sixth anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, the onset of Ramadan, and the much-awaited US progress report to accelerate attacks in Iraq.

"Overall, violence in Iraq has continued to decline and is at the lowest level since June 2006," Sherlock told reporters.

"However, for the last few years, the Ramadan period has tended to be the most violent time of the year in Iraq."

"And with the upcoming assessment from Ambassador (Ryan) Crocker and General (David) Petraeus, the start of Ramadan in mid-September, and the sixth anniversary of the September 11 attacks on our nation, we can expect the enemy to increase their attempts to create both sensational attacks and large numbers of casualties in order to affect the reception of that report and the will of the coalition and the people of Iraq."

US intelligence: Iraqi leadership precarious

Iraq's government will become more precarious in the coming months and a drawdown of US forces could increase sectarian violence, US spy agencies said in a grim report Thursday.

The new intelligence estimate also predicted that security improvements made over the past six months will erode if the US military narrows its mission to supporting the Iraqi security forces and fighting Al-Qaeda.

The US intelligence community "assesses that the Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition" as well as Sunni and Kurdish parties, the new estimate warned.

The declassified judgments of the assessment were released by the office of the Director for National Intelligence Mike McConnell, and came amid mounting US frustration over the lack of political progress in Iraq.

Attempts by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki to bridge Iraq's ethnic and sectarian divides have so far failed. Seventeen members of his 40-person cabinet have resigned, and the daily bloodshed takes a stiff toll on ordinary Iraqis.

Barring "a fundamental shift in factors driving Iraqi political and security developments," compromises needed for "sustained security, long-term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to emerge," the assessment said.

Iraqi leaders who are already "unable to govern effectively" will struggle to achieve national political reconciliation, it warned.

Since its January assessment there have been "measurable but uneven" improvements in Iraq's security, the report said, adding however that the "level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high."

Earlier in the year US President George W. Bush ordered 30,000 more troops to Iraq -- boosting US forces on the ground to 160,000 -- in a bid to improve security.

Iraqi security forces have performed adequately, but have not improved enough to conduct major operations independent from US-led coalition forces, the report said.

Changing the coalition's mission to focus on providing combat support for Iraq's security forces and fighting Al-Qaeda "would erode security gains achieved thus far," it warned.

US general warns of bloody ‘Ramadan Offensive’ in Iraq | Iraq Updates

DNO rejects 700 mln US$ bid for Iraqi Kurdistan oil licenses from unnamed oil firm

DNO ASA said it has rejected an unsolicited 700 mln US$ bid by 'a large international oil company' for its licenses in Kurdistan region (northern Iraq).

The Norwegian oil minnow said it has 'reviewed the interest and decided not to pursue the matter further'.

The suggested price, it said, was based on information available in the market as of early July 2007.

'No further comments can be given due to confidentiality requirements,' DNO added.

Dno Asa DNO expecting first export of oil from Iraqi Kurdistan in November

DNO ASA said it is expecting the first export of oil from its Tawke field in Kurdistan region (northern Iraq) in November this year, assuming it secures the relevant permission from authorities in the region.

Speaking after the release of its second quarter results, DNO said it is aiming to begin the export of oil into Turkey via pipeline from November.

Oil fields in Kurdistan region

The Kurdistan Petroleum Law was ratified by the region's parliament in August, and DNO said it expects the federal law to be approved in September.

According to this schedule, he said, exports could begin the following month.

Due to the political situation in Iraq, DNO is currently being forced to sell its oil in the local market.

De****e criticism, Al-Maliki won't go voluntarily

Istanbul - "Will he drop the Americans now or not?," is the question with which everyone in Baghdad is currenty asking as they see their premier's always worried-looking face is seen on television screens. When Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki came into focus at the beginning of 2006 as compromise candidate elevated by the United States, he made it clear that he would also not voluntarily step down in the event that Washington withdrew its support.

"This government was elected by the Iraqi people," al-Maliki hit back self-confidently this week, after warning US President George W Bush if his government failed to meet the requirements of the Iraqi people, "then that people will replace you."

What has left al-Maliki so full of himself is also his knowledge of how difficult, in face of the awkward balance of power in Baghdad, it would be to find a new prime minister who is liked both by the US as well as accepted by the majority of Iraqi parties.

Al-Maliki belongs to the Shiite Dawa party, from which the previous head of the government Ibrahim al-Jafari came. The party is a religious one. In contrast with the two other important Shiite parties, it does not control a militia.

Moreover, it is less close to the Iranian leadership structure than its rival al-Sadr movement and the Islamic High Council in Iraq.

These two reasons above all, for Washington, made a head of government from the Dawa party appear rather acceptable and for Iraq's Sunnis too, as a candidate of the other Shiite parties.

That a Shiite must be head of government results from majority conditions in Iraq where Shiites are in the majority and with parliamentary elections in 2005 in which nearly all religious Shiite parties were elected.

It may be that al-Maliki has so far not been able to meet US demands in creating a national reconciliation with the Sunnis and radical forces of Iraqi society.

But even US Ambassador in Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, conceded recently that even the fulfilment of all demands placed by Washington would not automatically lead to an improvement of the situation in the Iraq.

This is because those people who blow up themselves with fuel tank trucks, behead policemen and ensure that at least a dozen bodies of murder victims are strewn on roads in Baghdad each day, would not be reached by these measures anyway, Crocker says.

With regard to foreign policy, al-Maliki sits between a rock and a hard place at present. He places himself against neighbouring states Syria and Iran, regarded by the US as the region's largest troublemakers, which can tempt Tehran and Damascus to pour still more on the fire in the Iraqi civil war.

However, if he co-operates closely with them, he must count on warnings from Washington.

Therefore there observers who believe that it is no coincidence that al-Maliki was admonished by Bush precisely at the moment that he was paying a visit with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus.

And in Dubai on Friday a headline in the daily Gulf News previwing a forthcoming visit by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said: "Ahmadinejad's visit to Iraq may accelerate al-Maliki's departure."

De****e criticism, Al-Maliki won't go voluntarily - Feature : Middle East World

Iraq Requests an Agreement for Water

In an interview with Rueters in the Syrian capital, Iraqi minister of water resources Abdul Latief Rashid said “the water problems are getting worse and we need an agreement. Some of people said that the next war is going to be for water, but this will not solve the case, water problems will aggravate as long we delay solving it.”

”We must cooperate with the neighbor countries for having a fair quantity of water, and already we have started. It’s very important to collect information for their plans”, he added.

He also said “I hope that the water issue won’t be used for political aims”, and he refers to the decrease of water level in the Euphrates in Iraq and said “we need guaranties that the projects which is under constructing inside Turkey and Syria won’t make a negative impact on our country.”

PUKmedia :: English - Iraq Requests an Agreement for Water

Iranian Bombardment Resumes

On Friday noon, August the 24th the Iranian artillery bombarded the border villages of Kurdistan region including villages of Krnaka, Ashkoka and Sinamoka in Qandil valley of Sangaser sub-district which includes to Pishder district, Abdullah Muhammad director of Sangaser sub-district told PUK media on Friday.

It the first time the Iranian artillery shells those villages, though the bombardment left no casualties but it caused fear and anxiety to local citizens of those villages and the surrounding areas of Sidakan, he added.

PUKmedia :: English - Iranian Bombardment Resumes

White House Refines Take on Al-Maliki

The White House on Wednesday sought to dispel the impression left by President Bush that he was distancing himself from embattled Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in advance of a new assessment of the war and conditions in Iraq.

Bush on Tuesday had offered a tepid endorsement of the Iraqi government, expressing frustration at the lack of progress and saying it was up to the Iraqi people to decide whether to replace those in power. The remark brought an angry response from al-Maliki who said, "No one has the right to place timetables on the Iraq government. It was elected by its people."

The White House set out to reframe Bush's comment and the way it was interpreted.

National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said the president's words were not intended to signal a withdrawal of support for al-Maliki. As a result of the heavy media coverage of his remarks at the North American summit in Canada, Bush will insert a direct line of support for al-Maliki in his speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars conference, Johndroe said.

"Prime Minister Maliki knows where the president stands," Johndroe told reporters ahead of Bush's speech. The spokesman said that after Bush's comments in Canada, the White House had tried to make clear Bush was not distancing himself from Maliki.

"It appears that did not come through for whatever reason," Johndroe said.

When they met in Jordan last November, the president called al-Maliki "the right guy for Iraq." Now, he continually prods al-Maliki to do more to forge political reconciliation before the temporary military buildup ends.

The flap over al-Maliki stole the spotlight from Bush's attempt to compare the war in Iraq to U.S. involvements in Asia that lost popular backing but eventually proved their worth and led to lasting peace.

"The ideals and interests that led America to help the Japanese turn defeat into democracy are the same that lead us to remain engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq," Bush said in advance excerpts of Wednesday's VFW speech.

"The defense strategy that refused to hand the South Koreans over to a totalitarian neighbor helped raise up an Asian Tiger that is a model for developing countries across the world, including the Middle East," Bush said.

Bush often uses historical comparisons in urging patience on Iraq, but White House aides hope a specific focus on Asia will get skeptics to rethink their positions on Iraq and get beyond the daily, violent setbacks there.

Bush even cites Vietnam as a cautionary tale for those urging troop withdrawals today.

"Three decades later, there is a legitimate debate about how we got into the Vietnam War and how we left," Bush said. "Whatever your position in that debate, one unmistakable legacy of Vietnam is that the price of America's withdrawal was paid by millions of innocent citizens whose agonies would add to our vocabulary new terms like 'boat people,' 're-education camps' and 'killing fields.'"

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., quickly dismissed Bush's position.

"President Bush's attempt to compare the war in Iraq to past military conflicts in East Asia ignores the fundamental difference between the two," he said. "Our nation was misled by the Bush administration in an effort to gain support for the invasion of Iraq under false pretenses, leading to one of the worst foreign policy blunders in our history."

Bush's speech at the VFW is the first in a planned two-punch combo.
After comparing the current war against extremists with the militarists of Japan and the communists in Korea and Vietnam in Wednesday's speech, he plans to discuss the war in Iraq in the context of its implications for the broader Middle East in a speech next Tuesday at the annual American Legion convention in Reno, Nev.

The president's address at the convention was preceded by a two-day parade of presidential hopefuls and Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, who addressed the group Monday.

Petraeus and Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, are to report to Congress before Sept. 15 about the impact of the troop buildup that Bush ordered in January. Their report will provide the basis for Bush's decisions about the way forward in Iraq.

White House Refines Take on Al-Maliki - Examiner.com