Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Iran has missed a golden opportunity to gain in Iraq

The Bush administration, beyond the daily temperature readings about the progress of the US troop surge in Baghdad, is making a subtle but important shift in its strategy for the Middle East - establishing containment of Iranian power in the region as a top American priority.

A simple shorthand for this approach might be "back to the future," for it is strikingly reminiscent of American strategy during the 1980s after the Iranian revolution. The cornerstone is a political-military alliance with the dominant Sunni Arab powers - especially Saudi Arabia. The hardware will be new arms sales to Israel, Egypt and the Saudis. The software will be a refurbished Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

"The message to Iran is, we're still powerful, we protect our friends, we're not going away," explains a senior State Department official.

While the Iraq part of the story still has to play itself out, the new approach isn't premised on success there, but the possibility of failure. Iraq will continue to straddle the Sunni-Shiite fault line. Rather than a bulwark against Iranian expansion, as it was under Saddam Hussein, the new Shiite-led Iraq will be a battleground. To the extent that it comes under radical Iranian influence, it too will have to be contained.

Though the Iranians appear strong in this new alignment, the reality is that they have missed a golden opportunity to consolidate their power. Where they once stood to gain tacit American acquiescence to their regional hegemony, they now confront growing American resistance. It's an Iranian mistake that's likely to have lasting consequences, reminiscent of the Islamic Republic's failure to consolidate its gains in the initial years of the Iran-Iraq war.

Early this summer, senior Bush administration officials still hoped that Iran might cooperate with the United States in stabilizing Iraq. The two countries shared an interest in the success of Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, the theory went. Thus Washington agreed to bilateral meetings with the Iranians in Baghdad to explore a joint framework for security in Iraq. The prospect of an American-Iranian condominium in Iraq frightened the Saudis, but the US persisted.

America's modest price for working with the Iranians was spelled out by Ryan Crocker, the American ambassador in Baghdad. Iran's Revolutionary Guards had to stop shipping deadly weapons to Shiite forces in Iraq that were destabilizing the country and killing American soldiers. US officials had intelligence resources to monitor whether Iran complied with this basic demand. "We're not seeing it," says the senior State Department official.

The frustration with Iran also helps explain the administration's growing disillusionment with Maliki, whose Shiite-led government might have been a joint US-Iranian project. He has proved to be a weak, sectarian politician who has been unable to stop the violence, provide services or halt Iraq's rampant corruption. The rationale for the US troop surge was that it would provide political space for this government to make compromises, but that isn't happening.

What modest progress the US has recently made in Iraq has largely been in the Sunni areas, such as Anbar province. It's an alliance of convenience: The Sunnis increasingly see US troops as their best ally for containing the power of Iran and its proxies in Iraq. As the leverage of America's new Sunni friends grow, there has been increasing interest in a new coalition to replace the feeble Maliki.

In "back to the future" mode, the name being mentioned these days is Iyad Allawi, a former Baathist who was interim prime minister and has strong support among Sunnis, even though he's a secular Shiite. Allawi has bundles of money now to help buy political support, but it comes from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, rather than the US
The administration will continue to "turn up the heat" on Iran, says the State Department official. The US will press for a third United Nations resolution next month imposing sanctions on Iran's nuclear program. America is readying a new weapon in the impending designation of Iran's Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization. That would squeeze the organization and all of the businesses it owns - banks, trading companies, tech companies that are part of the nuclear program - and seek to divide President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, himself a product of the guard, from Iran's less fanatical majority.

The problem with "back to the future," of course, is that we've been there before. Arms deals won't provide lasting security for Saudi Arabia; supporting authoritarian Sunni regimes won't stem the appeal of Islamic radicalism; and a fractured Iraq will keep the region in a permanent state of tension. But the new approach has the virtue of realism - preparing for the worst in Iraq rather than hoping for the best.

Syndicated columnist David Ignatius is published regularly by THE DAILY STAR.

Iran has missed a golden opportunity to gain in Iraq | Iraq Updates

Maliki and Friends

At the end of his visit to Syria, the statements made by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki in reply to comments made by the US President would initially make anyone think that he was the one awaiting Ambassador Ryan Crocker and General David Howell Petraeus’ report – not the US Congress!

The report due September and commissioned by Congress will examine the Iraqi government’s failure to establish political action and national reconciliation in Iraq.

As he has previously done before, Mr. al Maliki will later announce that his statements were misreported – a reiterated excuse that seems to have impressed the Syrians lately. The Iraqi prime Minister suffers from a real crisis on all levels; the first of which is his failure to deal with the diversity in Iraqi society – let alone unify it.

Unfortunately, al Maliki and his associates will be remembered in history as the ones who made the Iraqis lament the end of the days where they had security under the dictator Saddam Hussein. During the bygone era of the Baathist regime, those who criticized it were the victims; whereas now, everyone is the victim of sectarian strife.

Iraq is being ravaged from its north to its south and from its east to its west by this sectarianism right before Mr. Maliki’s eyes. Meanwhile, al Maliki has restricted himself to one course instead of devoting his efforts to the whole of Iraq. However de****e that fact, the Iraqi prime minister wants to escape from this reality by believing that the American criticism against him is only a consequence of his visit to Syria, whilst maintaining that the criticism is part of the US election battle.

This indicates that the Iraqi government is incapable of apprehending the reservations and criticisms leveled against it, not only from Washington, but also from inside Iraq and the Arab world.

The strange thing is that al Maliki rushed to criticize Washington without seeing what Iran is actually doing – not what it is saying. At a time when Tehran has adopted a sharper tone and threatened to burn the Gulf down if it was subjected to an American attack, it also released the American scholar whom it had accused of spying [Iranian-American academic, Haleh Esfandiari].

Al Maliki's insinuation to Washington that he has friends other than the US who are capable of supporting him, could only have meant Iran and Syria.

Iran which is selfishly pursuing Iraq and wants to turn it into its backyard through which it can dominate the region and fulfill its Islamic revolution project. Meanwhile, Damascus wants Lebanon at any price and appears to be more bent on occupying Beirut than liberating the Golan Heights.

Notwithstanding all these facts, al Maliki and his associates ignore the issue that concerns the Arab world the most, including many of Iraq’s citizens, including the Shiaa: the issue of Iraq's, which is recklessly dismissed by the prime minister and his aides.

Undoubtedly, no one wants a Westernized Iraq, but no one would accept a Persian Iraq either.

Here, one must remind Mr. Maliki, who brags about his new friends, the old saying that goes: “with friends like these, who needs enemies!”

Maliki and Friends | Iraq Updates

Bush faces pressure on Iraq as Maliki Cabinet crumbles

As the Iraqi government continued to crumble Friday, the US intelligence community, military and a senior Republican senator ratcheted up the pressure on US President George W. Bush to bring US troops home from Iraq. France, on the other hand, said it was ready to provide assistance on the ground in Iraq, while a US general in central Iraq said any withdrawal of US soldiers in his region would be "a giant step backward."

With just weeks to go before US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker and military commander General David Petraeus are to report to Congress on progress in Iraq, US intelligence agencies released a grim forecast of more violence and stalemate.

"Levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high, and the Iraqi government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance," the National Intelligence Estimate found.

The report said there had been "measurable but uneven improvements" in Iraqi security since January under the troop increase, but that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government would become more precarious over the next six to 12 months.

"Broadly accepted political compromises required for sustained security, long-term political progress and economic development are unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments," it said.

In a sign of the political deadlock, the secularist bloc of former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi announced that its ministers, who had been boycotting Cabinet meetings, would quit the government altogether.
Maliki has been trying to knit back together his national unity government after key groups quit, notably the main Sunni Arab bloc, the Accordance Front, which pulled out on August 1.

Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, the only Accordance Front leader to remain in office, said the bloc's ministers would return only if their demands for reforms were met.

The Front has said its demands include more influence over policy in areas like security and an improvement of basic services in predominantly Sunni Arab provinces.

The United States has dispatched an additional 30,000 troops to Iraq this year and pushed them from big bases into neighborhood outposts in an effort to quell sectarian violence in Baghdad and neighboring provinces.

Meanwhile, France said on Friday it may be prepared to provide assistance to Iraqi troops and police, a further sign of a thaw in relations with the United States after France's foreign minister visited Baghdad this week.

Bernard Kouchner's three-day trip to Baghdad was seen as part of President Nicolas Sarkozy's effort to improve relations with Washington after a bitter fallout over the US-led invasion under previous President Jacques Chirac.

But General Peter Pace, the outgoing chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, was reportedly poised to urge Bush to cut US force levels in Iraq by nearly half next year to ease the strain the war has placed on the military.

Pace, who leaves his post in September, was likely to advise Bush that maintaining more than 100,000 of the 162,000 troops now present through 2008 will place severe strains on the US military, the Los Angeles Times said, citing Bush administration and military officials.

Pace and the Joint Chiefs worry that the Iraq war "has degraded the US military's ability to respond, if needed, to other threats, such as Iran," the newspaper said.

In addition, one of the most prominent senators in Bush's Republican party says the president should start bringing some troops home by Christmas to show the Baghdad government that the US commitment to Iraq is not open-ended.

Warner said on Thursday that the troop withdrawals are needed because Iraqi leaders have failed to make substantial political progress de****e an influx of US troops initiated by Bush early this year.

"We simply cannot as a nation stand and continue to put our troops at continuous risk of loss of life and limb without beginning to take some decisive action," he told reporters after a meeting at the White House with Bush's top aides.

Meanwhile, Army Major General Rick Lynch said on Friday that any reduction of American troops in his area of Iraq this year would be "a giant step backward" and would allow insurgents to regain sanctuaries wrested from them in hard fighting.

Lynch's comments implicitly confirm White House officials' warnings that the surge will fail to reach at least one key benchmark: handing Iraqis the responsibility for the security of their country by November 1. - Reuters, AFP, AP

Bush faces pressure on Iraq as Maliki Cabinet crumbles | Iraq Updates

Iraqi Aide: US Reports Not in Interest of Iraq's Political Process

Yasin Majid, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's media adviser, has asserted that the reports issued by American institutions, whether it is the Central Intelligence Agency, "CIA", or members of Congress, "are not in the interest of the political process in Iraq and merely reflect their viewpoints."

Answering a question from Asharq Al-Awsat question about the Iraqi Government's reaction to the recent US intelligence assessment of the situation in Iraq, Majid said: "The government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is pressing ahead with the political reform process regardless of the reports from American institutions. These are these quarters' viewpoints and the reality says something else."

Majid pointed out that the internal vision of the political, economic, and security reforms differs from the vision of those looking at there forms from outside and recalled that the intelligence assessment was contrary to the White House's response as expressed by President George Bush when he said the decision to change Al-Maliki "is the Iraqi people's decision because he knows it was the Iraqi people who chose this government."

On his part, Dr. Basim Sharif, the Iraqi parliamentarian and prominent member of the Islamic Al-Fadilah Party, said the assessment was made to justify the American forces' failures in Iraq "and this does not mean giving an image of Al-Maliki's Government that is far from the reality. This government has been unable to put an end to this country's problems."

Iraqi Aide: US Reports Not in Interest of Iraq's Political Process | Iraq Updates

Aftermath of INL's withdrawal in Baghdad press

Iraqi newspapers on Saturday focused on the tense political situation that developed after the withdrawal of former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's Iraqi National List (INL) from Nouri al-Maliki's government, and political leaders' efforts to contain the crisis.

The government-funded al-Sabah newspaper published the INL's withdrawal statement, which was read out at a press conference on Friday by leading member Iyad Jamal al-Din. According to the newspaper, al-Maliki will have no option but to form a parliamentary majority government if mediation attempts with the Sunni Iraqi Accordance Front (IAF) and the INL fail to dissuade them from their decision to quit the government.

The INL, which has five portfolios in the government, announced on August 7, 2007 that it would suspend its participation in the government, and threatened to "withdraw entirely from the government if its demands continued to be ignored." The INL, which had 25 seats in the 275-member parliament, forwarded 14 demands to the government, including reconsidering the law on terrorism, filtering the army and police of "disloyal elements" and suspending the debaathification law pending an enactment of a new law.

"The minister of science and technology, who belongs to the Communist Party, one of the parties inside the INL, has declined to quit the government, while the others agreed," Jamal al-Din said.

The INL portfolios included justice, communications, science and technology, human rights and a minister of state.

Al-Ittihad newspaper, issued by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), covered Iraqi President Jalal al-Talabani's meeting with a U.S. Senate delegation and his assertion that national reconciliation between Iraqi factions is moving forward.

On its front-page, the newspaper also highlighted al-Talabani's condolences to the death of former Iraqi President Abdul Rahman Aref, who died in the Jordanian capital Amman on Friday.

Meanwhile, al-Adala newspaper, the mouthpiece of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), previously known as the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), highlighted on its front page a recent statement made by the council's head Abdul Aziz al-Hakeem in which he called on the Iraqi government to clamp down on armed groups and the outlaws. The statement was made after the assassination of the governors of Diwaniyah and Muthanna by unidentified armed groups a few days ago.

On its front page al-Mada newspaper, an independent daily, published a main headline that read, 'Preparations for the Shaaban visit: Security forces massively deployed in Baghdad, curfew on vehicles in Karbala.'

"Baghdad's operations command put the Iraqi army and police on alert in preparation for al-Shaabaniya visit, scheduled for this Wednesday," the newspaper wrote.

Aftermath of INL's withdrawal in Baghdad press | Iraq Updates

Iraqis frustrated with U.S. policy in Iraq-Kurdish MP

A leading figure from The Kurdistan Alliance parliamentary bloc said on Saturday the U.S. is not the only party that felt disappointed over Iraq for the Iraqis are also frustrated with Washington's policy in the country, describing the National Intelligence Estimate as "a prologue to Crocker- Petraeus report" expected in September.

"If the U.S. administration was disappointed over the Iraqi leaders, Iraqis had been frustrated with the U.S. policy (in Iraq) over the last four years," Moahmoud Othman told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI) over the phone.

The Kurdish politician who criticized the content of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), a declassified summary of it released on Thursday, said "the NIE reported the Kurdish leaders as not compromising on essential issues but the truth is that the Kurdish leaders are playing key roles in solving most crises in the country."

Othman who is affiliated to the second largest bloc in the Iraqi parliament also added "it is true that the Kurds are interested in defending their autonomy within Kurdistan region, but they are also interested in the Iraqi issues and Presidents Jalal al-Talabani and Massoud al-Barazani play an important role in finding solutions to the lingering issues to push the political process forward."

On Thursday, a declassified file of NIE described the Kurdish leaders as protecting the autonomy of the Kurdish region and "reluctant to compromise on key issues."

"NIE is but a prologue to the Crocker and Petraeus report expected to be released in September," Othman told VOI.

The Kurdish politician expected for the report now prepared by the U.S. envy to Baghdad Ryan Crocker and the Top Military Commander in Iraq David Petraeus to duplicate the NIE's statements noting "the U.S. administration wants to inform the U.S. citizen that it had done all it could but it was the Iraqi government that failed to make progress."

"The NIE, statements by U.S. President George W. Bush and some senators are but an introduction to Crocer-Petraeus report which is expected to be announced on September 11," the Kurdish parliamentarian added.

Othman who admitted some failure on the part of the Iraqi government called upon the U.S. and Iraqi sides to share responsibility towards the mistakes committed noting "we can not say that the Iraqi government is a success for we know it suffers from difficulties but the responsibility behind these problems should equally shared by the U.S. and Iraqi sides."

Iraqis frustrated with U.S. policy in Iraq-Kurdish MP | Iraq Updates

Indefinite ban on vehicles in Baghdad

Baghdad's Operations Command imposed a ban on all vehicles and motorcycles in the Iraqi capital as of Saturday 6:00 am till further notice in order to protect the Shiite pilgrims leaving from Baghdad on foot to Karbala to observe a Shiite occasion, the official al-Iraqiya TV said on Saturday afternoon.

The ban on all vehicles in Baghdad came only hours after a car bomb blast claimed seven lives and wounded 20 others in the Shiite sacred city of al-Kazhemiyah in northern Baghdad.

On Wednesday, the Shiite Muslims are expected to observe the birth anniversary of the twelfth Imam, the guided Imam (Al-Mahdi in Arabic), causing large numbers of them to walk on foot to the Shiite sacred shrine of Imam Hussein, grandson of Prophet Mohammed, in Karbala, 108 km southwest of Baghdad.

The Iraqi government used to impose a ban on vehicle in the Iraqi capital fearing of attacks that might target the Shiite pilgrims during occasions observed by Shiite Muslims after 2003.

Indefinite ban on vehicles in Baghdad | Iraq Updates

'Mosul's Islamic emirate': Residents concerned, officials dismiss it as unfounded fears

Fears have grown over the establishment of an alleged Islamic emirate in Mosul after armed groups distributed leaflets to local citizens announcing the formation of an Islamic rule in the mainly Sunni city, while officials dismissed the matter as unfounded fears.

Hamid Qasim, a shopkeeper from Mosul's neighborhood of al-Dawwasa, told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI) that armed groups had threatened to attack police forces in the city and ordered local residents to stay home. "The street leading to the municipal council building and downtown al-Dawwasa street have been blocked for more than a month," Qasim indicated. "The city has become a scene of daily assassinations, in addition to blasts and mortar shelling targeting innocent civilians," Qasim added.

Rafat Najm, a local resident, said armed groups have taken control of the city and described officials' statements about the allegedly safe security situation in Mosul as false. "Armed groups are killing people without a deterrent. If a member of these groups is arrested, he is usually released within a few days. How come they (local authorities) ask us to cooperate with the security apparatus while the police are infiltrated by these groups?" Najm wondered.

Mahmoud from al-Mosul al-Jadida said that these groups have their own religion courts, where they impose Sharia punishments on people. Giving no information as to where the alleged courts are located, Mahmoud said that members of these groups arrested a young man a few days ago and whipped him up to 80 times in public for allegedly harassing a girl in the city's popular market.

Meanwhile, Ninewa's Governor Darid Kashmoula warned "terrorist" groups that local police will strike with an iron fist against any attempt to resume terrorist activity in Mosul. "We are not terrified of their statements about the establishment of an Islamic emirate in Mosul. The Iraqi people categorically reject this and want to restore stability and security to the city," Kashmoula explained.

Major General Wathiq al-Hamadani, the police chief in Ninewa, described armed groups' threats to turn Mosul into an Islamic emirate as an indication of the failure and "bankruptcy" of armed groups.

Hajim Sulaiman, a professor of sociology in Mosul University, accused armed groups of attempting to provoke sectarian conflict between the city's religious communities. Mosul is inhabited by a large number of Christians, Assyrians, Armenians and Kurds. "How could there be an Islamic emirate where different religious communities live?" Sulaiman wondered.

Mosul, the capital city of Ninewa province, is located 405 km north of the Iraqi capital Baghdad.

'Mosul's Islamic emirate': Residents concerned, officials dismiss it as unfounded fears | Iraq Updates

British forces won't leave Basra soon – official

The Multi-National Force (MNF) spokesman denied on Saturday a decision that British forces in Basra would be withdrawn soon, adding British forces would soon hand over the base in the former presidential palaces and joint coordination center to the Iraqi police.

"There is no decision or program to pull British forces out of Basra at present," Maj. Matthew Bird told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).

He pointed out that withdrawal of "500 British troops in Basra will take place by the end of this year," adding "the cut in the number of British soldiers in Basra has nothing to do with any emergency circumstances or changes in the British policy in Iraq. It was a plan approved during the time of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair in February 2007."

British newspaper The Guardian had quoted military sources on Friday as having said that British soldiers would withdraw from the Iraqi city of Basra in two weeks' time.

"Handing over those two camps should not be viewed as withdrawal of British forces from Basra.

Rather, it should be considered a significant step to help Iraqi forces take over security responsibilities," said Bird.

The British forces in Basra have two bases in the city's international airport, 25 km northwest of the city, and former presidential palaces, where the British and U.S. consulates are located.

Both bases come under constant daily attacks with Katyusha missiles and mortar shells by unidentified armed groups.

The British forces in Basra, 590 km south of the Iraqi capital Baghdad, keep 5,500 troops within the Multi-National Force in Iraq after withdrawing 1,600 soldiers during the past few months.

Britain is the United States' prime ally in the March 2003 invasion of Iraq.

British forces won't leave Basra soon – official | Iraq Updates

Turkish artillery shell northern Iraqi areas

Turkish artillery anew shelled areas inside Iraqi territories with no reports of casualties, an official source from the Kurdistan Democratic Party said on Saturday.

"Nearly 25 artillery shells fell near villages of Kashan, Afiyliyah, and Ghali Basaqa of Zakho district and villages of Karah, Spindar and Baloka of al-Imadiyah district on Friday evening," the source, who declined to be named, told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).

Local residents from the bombed areas told VOI that Turkish artillery shelling left no casualties.

Zakho, about 510 km north of Baghdad, is located near to the Iraqi borders with Turkey, while al-Imadiyah district lies to the east of Zakho near the Turkish borders.

The northern Iraqi borders have been a scene of tension and repeated Turkish artillery shelling. Turkey says its forces are hunting for the banned Turkish Kurdish Workers' party (PKK) fighters hiding in the border areas inside Iraq's Kurdistan.

Turkish artillery shell northern Iraqi areas | Iraq Updates