Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Al Maliki to remain in office

Dubai: Iraq's beleaguered Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki will stay on, his spokesman said on Saturday, de****e the growing dissent within his government and a wave of American reports that have questioned his ability to rule.

US President George W. Bush, meanwhile, refused to consider early troop reductions, saying new offensives in the war-torn nation were just in their "early stages".

Al Maliki's spokesman, Ali Al Dabbagh, brushed aside a sombre report presented earlier by the US intelligence community, which said "Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively" and sectarian violence "probably will intensify."

"This government was elected by millions of Iraqis in a democratic process. It is not up to the Americans to change the Prime Minister," Al Dabbagh told Gulf News by telephone from Baghdad.

However, he admitted there were "many truths" in the report but said it was because government efforts are being challenged by "terrorist groups." Bush, in his weekly radio address yesterday, said the war against Al Qaida in Iraq was just beginning and asked for patience.

"We cannot expect the new strategy we are carrying out to bring success overnight. But by standing with Iraqis as they build their democracy, we will deliver a devastating blow to Al Qaida."

Gulfnews: Al Maliki to remain in office

Yazidis, fearing extermination, flee their areas

The tiny pre-Islamic Iraqi sect known as Yazidis is in danger of extinction. The nearly half a million Yazidis in Iraq are currently the target of deadly attacks by both Sunni and Shiite Muslim groups, forcing most of them to flee their areas.

The deadliest attack took place on August 14 when four suicide-bombers blew themselves up in two villages, killing more than 500 Yazidis and injuring hundreds more.

The bombing has been described as genocide and the most devastating this peaceful community has been subjected to in modern history.

The two villages are located almost on the fringes of what Iraqi Kurds call now ‘Kurdistan’ where Kurdish militias are in control. The bombing has sent a signal to this hitherto secretive community that there is no safe haven for them in the country.

The Yazidis are shunned by other religious groups in Iraq as they are mistakenly believed to be the followers of ‘Satan’ the scourge of Jews, Muslims and Christians.

And the group has been at the center of persecution from all sides, namely Iraqi Kurds, who are predominantly Sunni Muslims.

Yazidis speak Kurdish and the Kurds are currently more accommodating towards them in a move analysts believe is meant to help them expand their enclave by adding predominantly Yazidi villages and towns to it.

The sect’s secretive nature has led to the promulgation of legendary stories about their religious practices which their enemies have distorted to include even acts of debauchery.

But the Yazidis pursue a conciliatory faith. The creed is a combination of ancient religious tenets in Mesopotamia and Persia as well as Islam, Judaism and Christianity.

Their ‘Satan’ is not the fallen angel of the heavenly religions. For them he is an upright figure like a prophet who preaches love, tolerance and forgiveness. Therefore, following the teachings of their angel, the Yazidis are not permitted to start aggression and are under obligation to live peacefully with neighboring faiths.

But the association with the devil or ‘Satan’ has made them targets of persecution throughout the centuries and their holy shrine or ‘Mecca’ north of Mosul was burned down several times in the past mainly by Kurds.

Former President Saddam Hussein respected the community and is said to be the only Iraqi Muslim leader to have donated money for the construction of a Yazidi shrine.

One of Saddam Hussein’s military commanders during his eight-year war with Iran was a Yazidi Lt.-Gen whose heroic tactics had propelled him to fame across the country before he was killed in a ferocious battle in southern Iraq.

And today the Yazidis live under fear and terror and have abandoned all hope of being accepted as citizen with equal rights among Arab Muslims whether Sunni or Shiites.

Sunni terror groups and Shiite militia gangs kill Yazidis with impunity because in their eyes they are infidels who have either to adopt Islam as religion or be killed.

They have lost their businesses – mainly liquor shops and bars – across the country apart from Kurdish-controlled areas. And currently no single Yazidi family exists in areas outside the Kurdish enclave.

But Yazidis’ main towns, shrines and villages have traditionally been either inside or close to areas which are predominantly Arab. And the Yazidi villages and towns bordering Arab-controlled areas are in grave danger and many of their inhabitants are now fleeing to Kurdish north.

The Kurds currently tolerate the Yazidis and under their regional constitution they enjoy rights equal to other Muslim Kurds.

But Yazidis have bitter memories of Kurdish persecution. With Iraq’s future and conditions unpredictable they, like other minorities such the Mandeans, Christians, Shebeks and other smaller groups, fear for their own lives and existence.

For this reason, many of them have opted to flee Iraq altogether, mainly to the secular state of Syria and then hopefully to a European country.

Azzaman in English

Generals differ on timing of Iraq troop cuts

WASHINGTON: As the Bush administration mulls over options for withdrawing forces in Iraq, fault lines are beginning to emerge in a debate between commanders in the field who favor slow reductions and senior generals at the Pentagon who favor cutting the number of combat troops more deeply.

Among others, General Peter Pace, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and General George Casey Jr., the Army chief of staff, are said to be leaning toward a recommendation that steep reductions by the end of 2008, perhaps to half of the 20 combat brigades now in Iraq, should be the administration's goal.

Such a drawdown would be deeper and faster than General David Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq, is expected to recommend next month, administration officials said.

"If you're out in Baghdad you might have a different priority for where you want the troops," an administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the White House has not authorized public remarks on the options being considered.

It has been known since the spring that the White House was considering options for reducing combat forces in Iraq by almost half in 2008, which could bring overall troop levels below 100,000. But the shape of the debate is only beginning to emerge.

George W. Bush will have to weigh whether such steep reductions in 2008, even if cast only as a goal, would risk eroding what a new National Intelligence Estimate has described as measurable but fragile security gains achieved in Iraq in recent months.


A Pentagon official who supports a sharp drawdown described the steep troop reductions as "what we're shooting for, our initial goal." The official said a drawdown to roughly 10 brigades would enable the Army to give many soldiers at least a year at home for every year they are deployed, an objective of Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Most soldiers are now serving 15 months in Iraq and get a year or less at home.

A combat brigade generally has around 3,500 soldiers, though some of the units in Iraq have as many as 1,000 additional troops.

With more than 160,000 troops now in Iraq, Casey warned recently, "We're consumed with meeting the current demands and we're unable to provide ready forces as rapidly as we would like for other contingencies. He added, "This is a temporary state and one we must pass through quickly if we're going to preserve and sustain our all-volunteer force and restore strategic depth."

But the assessment that Petraeus is preparing to deliver next month is likely to call for at most modest reductions in troop levels by next spring. At that point the five additional brigades added this year under the president's troop increase are likely to be withdrawn gradually.

Administration officials said Bush was acutely aware that some reduction next year would be required, and they said he planned to use next month's debate to outline a plan for gradual troop reductions. He has not decided on a timetable or whether to go beyond pulling out the five additional brigades, officials said.

"At this point the only question is when the drawdown begins and how fast it proceeds," said one senior administration official who has been deeply involved in the internal debate. "But to get there, something has to give."

White House officials said Bush had yet to receive a formal proposal from Pace or other officials about how large a troop withdrawal to make.

"The president has received no recommendation regarding our future force posture in Iraq," Gordon Johndroe, a White House spokesman, told reporters in a briefing at Crawford, Texas He was responding to a report in The Los Angeles Times that Pace plans to advise Bush to reduce forces in Iraq by almost half by the end of next year.

In a statement, Pace said he could not comment on what size withdrawal he would recommend. "I have not made or decided on any recommendations yet," he said.

"I take very seriously my duty to provide the best military advice to the president," he added. "I provide that advice privately to the president."

With violence in Iraq expected to remain high into next year, it may be impossible for the United States to reach a force level of 10 brigades by late 2008, several Pentagon officials conceded. Bush and his commanders may decide on a less ambitious goal of reaching a force level of 12 to 15 brigades, and even that could be dependent on improvement in security conditions and in the Iraqi forces' capabilities, they said.

What Bush announces next month may also be constrained to some extent by his warnings in recent months that publicizing a withdrawal could embolden the enemy in Iraq. He also has to take into account an assessment released this week by the nation's intelligence agencies that cautioned that reducing forces too quickly could jeopardize recent security gains.

Generals differ on timing of Iraq troop cuts - International Herald Tribune

Iran & Iraq trade outlook positive

The outlook for the future of trade exchange between the two neighboring countries of Iran and Iraq in the year 2007 is very positive.

A top official from Iran and Iraq joint Chamber of Commerce stated that the volume of trade exchange between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Iraq should reach $1.8b by the end of 2007.

Jahanbakhsh Sanjabi-e-Shirazi referred to the launching of banking relation and insurance system between the two countries and standardizing of export services as two of the most important elements contributing to the increase of trade exchange between Iran and Iraq in 2007.

He added, "the private sector of Iran can also take part in technical and engineering activities in Iraq, which could help the increase of trade exchange between the two countries".

Iran's export to Iraq in the current Iranian calendar year already surpassed $1.2b.

According to a ten-year-outlook, trade exchange between Iran and Iraq is expected to increase to $10b.

http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=4436

Australia and Iraq to enlarge bilateral cooperation

Australia uttered that it would like to enhance its relations with Iraq in different fields and to start a new phase of cooperation that encompasses economy and trade fields in the two countries.

This statement was voiced by the Australian Ambassador in Baghdad when Trade Minister Abdul Falah Al Sudani received him, according to the ministry’s press spokesman. The latter also signaled that both parties got along to enlarge the bilateral cooperation and to sign huge economy and trade contracts in order to meet the needs of the ratio card.

http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=4437

Oil Committee in Kirkuk to sell a part of its crude oil

Jamal Mawlud member of Oil, Industry and Minerals Committee in Kirkuk Province Council affirmed that the regional Administration intends to sell a part of Oil production in order to soothe oil derivatives crisis from which the city suffers.

http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=4438

Cork trying to buy Iraqna towers to cover entire country

A Cork Telecom source said it is trying to reach an agreement to purchase the towers and property of Iraqna Mobile in order to cover all Iraq after winning a mobile phone license.

Tawfeeq Shekhani, Director of Information at Cork Telecom Company, said "We are trying now to reach an agreement with the company Iraqna to buy its towers and property, and if successful we will have no problem in covering all Iraq's cities."

The government announced that MTC Atheer, Asia Cell and Cork Telecom had won the auction of licenses for national mobile phone networks--held in Amman, Jordan, early Friday morning--for $3.75 billion.

Iraqna Company skipped this auction, and its license will end late this month; the companies that have won the new licenses will replace Iraqna which been preoccupied with its extensive network in central and southern Iraq.

Shekhani added, "If we do not reach agreement with the Iraqna Company, we will first expand in the areas of Kirkuk and Mosul and then other cities, and we expect to reach all parts of Iraq within six to eight months."

Cork Telecom Company is one of the oldest mobile companies in Iraq; it began working in Kurdistan in 2000 in the governorates of Erbil and Dohuk, and then expanded to include Sulaymaniyah and the outskirts of Mosul and Kirkuk. According to the company officials, it now has more than a million and a half subscribers.

Although Cork Telecom, located in Erbil, had a partnership with the Sana-Tel in Sulaymaniyah it was not linked to central and southern networks, so making a call from Erbil using Cork to other cities in Iraq required an international call at about 50 cents per minute. Also, other network users cannot connect easily with Cork subscribers in most areas of Iraqi Kurdistan. The company says that this was because it did not own an Iraq-wide license, but that now it can expand its network in accordance with the new contract.

Shekhani said that prices of calls will remain the same and added, "the prices of local and international calls will not rise, and our mobile phone charges are among the cheapest in Iraq." Cork Telecom charges 6 cents/minute for local calls, and reduced rates from 12 midnight to seven of 3 cents/minute.

http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=4442

De****e political changes Economic reforms are incomplete

An economic expert said that the political change in Iraq was accompanied by a change in principle of Iraq's economic vision, but details of the economic reforms are not yet complete. He noted that community involvement in the formulation of economic policy requires a democratic approach be followed by the State, involving concerted efforts of the concerned community of civil society organizations, university professors, the private sector, economic spe******ts and others in drafting of an economic vision.

Manaf Al-Saiyigh, expert at the Iraqi Center for Economic Reform, added that in the absence of this interaction between society and government any policy will suffer from a lack of understanding in society, and could lead to opposition and rejection. Perhaps the policy of rationalizing oil prices is the clearest example of this; in ****e of its correct basis it remained misunderstood and did not receive required support and acceptance. There is no doubt that the State was often too embarrassed to follow the adjustment policy.

Al-Saiyigh noted the existence of other policies with significant economic impacts such as privatization, reform of governmental supports, and implementation of the investment law, which doubtless will arouse strong reactions.

In practice, he said, "The visible evidences of community participation in the formulation of economic policies are symposia, conferences and articles. As lead economics organization, the Iraqi Center for Economic Reform regulates research on economic issues."

http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=4443

Iraq body count running at double pace

This year's U.S. troop buildup has succeeded in bringing violence in Baghdad down from peak levels, but the death toll from sectarian attacks around the country is running nearly double the pace from a year ago.

Some of the recent bloodshed appears the result of militant fighters drifting into parts of northern Iraq, where they have fled after U.S.-led offensives. Baghdad, however, still accounts for slightly more than half of all war-related killings - the same percentage as a year ago, according to figures compiled by The Associated Press.

The tallies and trends offer a sobering snapshot after an additional 30,000 U.S. troops began campaigns in February to regain control of the Baghdad area. It also highlights one of the major themes expected in next month's Iraq progress report to Congress: some military headway, but extremist factions are far from broken.

In street-level terms, it means life for average Iraqis appears to be even more perilous and unpredictable.

The AP tracking includes Iraqi civilians, government officials, police and security forces killed in attacks such as gunfights and bombings, which are frequently blamed on Sunni suicide strikes. It also includes execution-style killings - largely the work of Shiite death squads.

The figures are considered a minimum based on AP reporting. The actual numbers are likely higher, as many killings go unreported or uncounted. Insurgent deaths are not a part of the Iraqi count.

The findings include:

Iraq is suffering about double the number of war-related deaths throughout the country compared with last year - an average daily toll of 33 in 2006, and 62 so far this year.

Nearly 1,000 more people have been killed in violence across Iraq in the first eight months of this year than in all of 2006. So far this year, about 14,800 people have died in war-related attacks and sectarian murders. AP reporting accounted for 13,811 deaths in 2006. The United Nations and other sources placed the 2006 toll far higher.

Baghdad has gone from representing 76 percent of all civilian and police war-related deaths in Iraq in January to 52 percent in July, bringing it back to the same spot it was roughly a year ago.

_According to the Iraqi Red Crescent Organization, the number of displaced Iraqis has more than doubled since the start of the year, from 447,337 on Jan. 1 to 1.14 million on July 31.

However, Brig. Gen. Richard Sherlock, deputy director for operational planning for the Pentagon's Joint Chiefs of Staff, said violence in Iraq "has continued to decline and is at the lowest level since June 2006."

He offered no statistics to back his claim, but in a briefing with reporters at the Pentagon on Friday he warned insurgents might try intensify attacks in Iraq to coincide with three milestones: the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks in the U.S., the beginning of Ramadan and the report to Congress.

The U.S. military did not get all the additional American forces into Iraq until June 15, so it would be premature to draw a final statistical picture of the effect of the added troops.

But initial calculations validate fears that the Baghdad crackdown would push militants into districts north of the capital, including Diyala province where U.S. force and Iraqi soldiers have conducted major operation to clear its main city, Baqouba, of al-Qaida in Iraq fighters.

In July, the AP figures show 35 percent of all war-related killings occurred in northern provinces. The figure one year ago was 22 percent.

The final death count for August also will likely be further oriented to the north after the savage Aug. 14 attack by suspected al-Qaida truck bombers near the Syrian border in Ninevah province. At least 500 villagers from the Yazidi sect were killed in the deadliest civilian attack of the war.

In the first months of this year, many extremists fled to Baghdad and regions to the north after Sunni tribesmen in Anbar, the sprawling desert province west of the capital, turned on their erstwhile al-Qaida allies.

Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said many militants are trying to hang onto footholds in central Iraq.

"Most of the force shifts are still in the Baghdad ring and Diyala," he said in a recent interview, predicting more spectacular attacks in the days leading to next month's report to Congress by U.S. commander Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker.

"Will it lead to more bloody attacks as they try to exploit the American political debate? Yes."

Nora Bensahel, a military analyst at the Rand Corp., said that northern Iraq had become increasingly destabilized over the past few months.
The insurgents have made a "concerted effort to concentrate attacks in other parts of the country," Bensahel said, in part to escape the increased U.S. troop presence in Baghdad and in part to give the impression that no place in Iraq is safe.

Mostly, she said, the insurgents have shifted their focus to the Baghdad suburbs, but they are particularly keen to undermine the notion that northern Iraq is a "success story" for Washington and its key Iraqi partners - including the Kurds who have maintained a near-autonomous state in the north since the early 1990s.

Staging attacks in the north "has a symbolic effect," she said.
And beyond that, Bensahel said the tactic puts the United States in a difficult situation.

"There isn't an ability to move north in any significant numbers without abandoning Baghdad" - a change in strategy that Washington is not prepared to make, she said.

But a huge problem also looms in the south, the center of Shiite political and spiritual influence and the site of Iraq's main oil fields.

There are daily gunbattles between the Mahdi Army militia - loyal to radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr - and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, the powerhouse Shiite political party that controls most of the bureaucracy and police forces in southern Iraq.

This month, the governors of two southern provinces loyal to the Supreme Islamic Council were killed in roadside bombings.

The clashes are expected to grow more intense as Britain draws downs its forces in southern Iraq over the coming months. The effect of the shrinking British presence is already being felt, said Cordesman in an assessment released Aug. 22.

"The end result was to turn the four provinces in southeastern Iraq over to feuding Shiite factions whose actions were mixed with corruption, extortion and links to criminal activities," he wrote.

And there are increasing signs that whole regions of the south are inclined to seek increased autonomy from the center - moves that many Iraqis fear could lead to partition of the country.

In Najaf - the spiritual heart for Shiites around the world - the provincial spokesman, Ahmed Deibel, told AP early this month that the gas turbine generator there had been removed from the national electricity grid. The unilateral action has contributed to several nationwide power blackouts.
He said the provincial plant produced 50 megawatts, while the province needed at least 200 megawatts.

"What we produce is not enough even for us. We disconnected it from the national grid (Aug. 1) because the people in Baghdad were getting too much, leaving little electricity for Najaf," he said.

The No. 2 U.S. commander, Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, has also expressed fears of a big insurgent attack in the final days before the report to Congress, but also claimed the offensives have shaken militant fighters in Baghdad and environs.

"Due to the constant pressure and depletion of their leadership, extremists have been pushed out of many population centers and are on the move, seeking other places to operate within the country," Odierno said last week.

"As a result, we are now in pursuit of al-Qaida and other extremist elements, and we'll continue to aggressively target their shrinking areas of influence," he said.

"Over the coming weeks, we plan to conduct quick-strike raids against remaining extremist sanctuaries and staging areas," Odierno said.

Iraq body count running at double pace | Iraq Updates

Maliki slams U.S. Senators, French FM

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki severely criticized U.S. Senators and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner for their calls for his ouster.

"We were glad that you are now siding with us and the victims of the former regime, which you used to side with in the past. You have to observe courtesy. We demand apology for the (Iraqi) government," Maliki, addressing France, said in a press conference he held in Baghdad after inaugurating the cabinet's press center on Sunday.

"We received French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and we were so optimistically pleased with the new French stance, but then he gave statements that can never be up to diplomatic courtesy when he called for changing the (Iraqi) government," said Maliki.

"We want an official apology from the French government, not the French foreign minister," he added.

The Iraqi premier also criticized U.S. Senators Carl Levin and Hillary Clinton, who also called for changing his government.

"Levin and Clinton spoke of Iraq as if it were part of their possessions. They are both Democrats and have to respect the outcome of democracy," he stressed.

Maliki, moreover, reiterated calls for the return of Iraqi politicians opposing the political process.

"Some politicians, unfortunately, did not stand the political process and the developments in the country. We will keep on trying to merge them into the process and solve the problems they expressed," he said.

Maliki slams U.S. Senators, French FM | Iraq Updates