Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Iraq leftists protest key oil bill

BAGHDAD (AFP) - Dozens of Iraqis protested in central Baghdad on Saturday against the expected debate in parliament later this month of a draft oil law Washington deems a cornerstone of reconciliation efforts.

The demonstration was called by left-wing groups opposed to moves to open up Iraq's oil and gas sector to Western firms in the same bill that aims to reassure Sunnis that earnings will be fairly shared among the country's divided communities.

Protest organisers used microphones to denounce the draft law, which has already been approved by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's cabinet, saying it should not be passed while the United States is still calling the shots.
"The occupier is trying to impose this law by pressurising the weak Maliki government which rapidly endorsed the law and sent it to the so-called House of Deputies for endorsement," trade union leader Subhi al-Badri told AFP.

"The occupier has interfered and even demanded that deputies shorten their leave in order to endorse such a vital law which is the main reason behind the occupation," he added.

Parliament reconvenes for the debate next week after a month's summer holiday but Washington had opposed MPs even taking that recess.
"This very law aims at stealing the wealth of Iraq," Badri said.

"We will work to bring down the law with the support of five million Iraqi workers and our response will be halting oil exports and dismissing foreign companies from Iraq, including those which have started work."
Norway's DNO, Turkish group Petoil and the Canadian company Western Oil Sands have already signed production-sharing contracts with the autonomous Kurdish regional government in the north.

Communist party official Rashid Ismail said consideration of a bill so important to Iraq's economic future should be delayed until security has been restored.

"We reject the law because it has been drawn up under the tragic circumstances the country is experiencing," he said.

Tens of thousands of Iraqis have been killed and more than four million fled their homes since US-led forces invaded in 2003.

The draft oil and gas law provides for earnings to be shared equally between Iraq's 18 provinces in a bid to allay Sunni fears they will be monopolised by Kurdish and Shiite provinces which contain the oilfields.
But it also opens up Iraq's long state-controlled hydrocarbons sector to foreign involvement.

Iraq leftists protest key oil bill - Yahoo! News UK

Iraq's offshore oil wealth protected by navy force

Offshore Basra (Iraq), Aug 30: Maintaining heavy naval security for the two southern Iraqi offshore oil terminals remains one of the most critical missions for the US-led coalition forces, according to top naval commanders.

Four years after the coalition ousted Saddam Hussein, both Al Basrah (ABOT) and Khawr al Amaya (KAAOT) terminals, 50 km offshore from Basra, continue to be heavily guarded. US Navy SEALS and Polish Special Forces secured them during the opening hours of Operation Iraqi Freedom in March 2003.

"The mission of coalition forces here is very important for the economic revitalization of Iraq," Commander of the Combined Task Group (CTG) Captain Paul Severs said.

Severs said that ensuring the safe flow of oil out of Iraq was necessary to help the Iraqi government raise funds to push ahead with its reconstruction and economic revitalization plans.

Commanding officer of the Royal Australian Navy frigate HMAS Anzac, Captain Ian Middleton, whose country will assume the next command of the task group, emphasized the importance of securing the oil fields for the benefit of the Iraqis.

"The country needs revenue and it could only come at the moment through these oil platforms so we have to protect them," he said.

The importance of the two offshore fields, which account for more than 80 percent of Iraq's current revenues, was clear with the early decision to provide protection from a dedicated naval task force, known as Combined Task Force 158 (CTF-158), set up under the command of the Bahrain-based US Navy 5th Fleet.

CTF-158, which is mainly made up of US, British, and Australian forces, also conducts training for Iraqi marines and naval forces to prepare them to handle their own security.

Iraqi Marines are already providing security for the platforms as first response teams backed-up by US Navy personnel.

"We the coalition just provide protection for the platforms but its the Southern Oil Company that owns and sells the oil," Severs said.

Iraqis control the oilfield development and operations through the Southern Oil Co (SOC), which is overseen by the Iraq National Oil Company (INOC). The Iraqi oil ministry has overall supervision.

ABOT, built in the 1970s, is the main stop for super tankers, which export Iraqi oil overseas, accounting for about 95 percent of the offshore production.

One and a half million barrels of crude oil are pumped daily via ABOT, which is about half of the terminal's loading capacity of three million barrels per day.

The ABOT platform renovations are nearly completed, unlike its sister platform KAAOT, which is six kilometres to the east and less then five kilometres from the contested borders with Iran.

KAAOT, which was built in late 1950s, sees less super tanker activity and like the rest of the country's oil infrastructure, suffers from years of neglect, damage from the consecutive wars, sanctions, and continued terrorist threats.

The dilapidated state of KAAOT is evident from the scraps of metal covering the platform, due to neglect, a fire in May 2006, which injured several Iraqis and other events.

Both offshore platforms are still bullet-riddled and have shell craters from the wars.

ABOT reopened for business in July 2003, while KAAOT reopened in February 2004.

Severs, who said that any possible British pullout from southern Iraq would not affect their mission, declined to comment on whether the threat to the platforms, which were targeted in a three-pronged suicide attack from boats loaded with explosives in April 2004, has decreased or increased.

He did however point out that the threat was still present, adding that the coalition was prepared to deal with such threats.

The 2004 attacks claimed the lives of three US service members, two Navy sailors and a Coast Guard man, prompting the coalition to declare a 3,000-metre warning zone and 2,000-metre exclusion zone that extends around each terminal.

US Navy and Coast Guard ships as well as Australian, British and Iraqi ships carry out the enforcement of the zone.

Both Severs and Middleton said that they were unconcerned about the nearby Iranian naval activity de****e the increasing tension between Washington and Tehran.

"We watch them operate in their waters and international ones just like they watch us operate here," said Severs.

Middleton described relations with the Iranian Navy as cordial, de****e the March 23 incident where the Iranian Revolutionary Guard detained 15 British sailors from the HMS Cornwall for 12 days, alleging that they had entered Iranian territorial waters.

"We do bear that in mind and we have procedures in place to prevent reoccurrence of that," Middleton said.

Lt Commander Eric Young, the gunnery officer on Australia's HMAS Anzac, which is part of a network that oversees coalition surveillance and security for the platforms, said they understood Iran's concerns about the large presence the coalition has just outside their borders.

One of the difficulties, they face with enforcing the security zones, is the 300 contacts on their radars to keep track of every day, Young added.

According to coalition officials, most of the vessels, which breach the 3,000-metre warning zone, which occurs several times daily, are local fishing dhows that do not have GPS systems or are trying to take shortcuts to save fuel and time.

Iraq's offshore oil wealth protected by navy force @ NewKerala.Com News Channel

Heating fuel crisis worsens as winter approaches

Kerosene prices have skyrocketed owing to the surge in demand as winter approaches.

Iraqis use mainly kerosene for heating and the one million liters a day Iraqi refineries produce hardly meet a fraction of domestic needs.

Baghdad alone needs four million liters a day during the three winter months in central Iraq, according to Maeen al-Kadhimi, head of Baghdad provincial council.

He said the Ministry of Oil has no capacity to furnish Baghdad with its needs. He said he feared fuel crisis this winter will be harsher in the years since the U.S. invasion.

The country needs at least 15 million liters of kerosene a day to meet the need for heating in winter but Kadhimi said there was no way for the Oil Ministry to make such a huge volume available.

Iraq currently imports most of its fuel needs. The country’s fuel import bill has ballooned to billions of dollars a year.

Iraq’s refineries, which prior to the U.S. invasion could meet almost all of the country’s needs for fuel, are operating at much below the capacity.

The Oil Ministry has a contract with Iran for the supply of 1.5 million liters of only kerosene every day but Kadhimi said Iran could only deliver half a million liters a day.

http://www.azzaman.com/english/index.asp?fname=news\2007-09-01\kurd.htm

Welcome to the new US embassy in Iraq

Baghdad is a city of ruins — of burnt-out homes, of shops wrecked by suicide bombs, of the crumbling shells of Saddam-era palaces and ministries destroyed by smart bombs in the US invasion of 2003.

There is one notable exception. It is probably the only big new building project in the capital in the past four years. It is the new US Embassy on the west bank of the Tigris which the contractors will transfer to the US government officially today.

A towering wall renders the huge new embassy almost invisible from ground level. For security reasons the State Department has refused all requests for media tours — promising instead to release pictures of the interior at some later date. The only way to view it is from the roof of the Babylon hotel, across the river.

What you can see through the haze of heat and pollution is a complex of two dozen smart new dun and grey blocks set in 104 acres of grounds ringed by that impregnable wall. It is a fortress within the fortress that is the green zone. It is designed to repel any physical attack and. when it opens for business in a few weeks, it will be protected by a detachment of Marines with their own barracks. It is not, however, invulnerable to criticism.

This is the largest US Embassy built — roughly the size of Vatican City — and at $600m the most expensive. At a time when millions of Baghdadis outside the green zone receive only a couple of hours of water and electricity daily, Iraqis observe that this project has been completed on time, on budget, and is entirely self-sufficient with its own fresh water supply, electricity plant, sewage treatment facility, maintenance shops and warehouses. “People are very angry,” said one young Iraqi. “It’s for the Americans, not for the Iraqis.”

There are two office blocks that will house 1,000 staff, six apartment blocks containing 619 one-bedroom units, spacious residences for the Ambassador and his deputy, a school, shopping centre and food court; a swimming pool, tennis and basketball courts; a gymnasium, cinema, beauty salon and social club. This is known because the architects — Berger Devine Yaeger, of Kansas City — posted drawings on its website briefly until the State Department ordered their removal. The embassy was built with imported labour. Critics also portray the new compound as a symbol of American isolation and occupation, and a sign of how little confidence the US has in Iraq’s future.

The Peninsula On-line: Qatar's leading English Daily

Some see 'coup' as Iraq's best hope
Ex-premier Allawi building political bloc to challenge al-Maliki

AMMAN, Jordan - In the lobbies of luxury hotels and the apartments of exiles, an assortment of Iraqi politicians has been spending the summer vacation plotting a new Iraqi coup -- a non-violent, parliamentary coup to be sure, but a coup nonetheless, that would oust Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, declare a state of emergency and install a new government.

At the forefront of these efforts is former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite who was Washington's first choice to lead Iraq after the U.S. occupation authority ended. He now is being presented by his followers as the best hope of saving Iraq from what they say is certain catastrophe.

But Allawi's is by no means the only name in circulation. Another former prime minister, two current vice presidents, a former planning minister, an Iraqi general from the old regime and an independent Sunni parliamentarian are among those being mentioned as potential alternatives.

"Everyone is desperate to be prime minister," said Saleh al-Mutlaq, a Sunni politician who has thrown his support behind Allawi but who has also been mentioned as a potential candidate. "Iraq is producing prime ministers."

The dream of dislodging the Shiite-led government by forming a coalition from a disparate assortment of disgruntled Sunnis, Shiites and secularists dates to the beginning of the year, when the plotting to replace al-Maliki began in earnest in the relative safety of Amman. But the effort was given new momentum by a statement from President Bush last week, in which he hinted for the first time that U.S. support for al-Maliki was waning.

"If the government doesn't ... respond to the demands of the people, they will replace the government," Bush said at a news conference in Quebec. "That's up to the Iraqis to make that decision, not American politicians."

Al-Maliki's opponents are making their way back to Baghdad in time for Monday's reopening of parliament determined to do just that, by forming a parliamentary majority that could outvote the Shiite-Kurdish coalition on which al-Maliki depends.

In a bid to muster Kurdish support, aides said Allawi plans to meet this weekend in Kurdistan with the region's president, Massoud Barzani, and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani.

"There's been a definite change in tone from Washington, and the momentum and drive to support Allawi will increase," said Jaafar al-Taie, a political analyst involved in the new coalition's campaign. "It's not only that Maliki must go, but that the whole system must go."

According to Allawi's published program, the parliamentarians would not only appoint a new government but also suspend the new constitution, declare a state of emergency and make the restoration of security its priority.

Encouraged by signs

Whether the U.S. would countenance what amounts effectively to the unraveling of the entire political process built since its March 2003 invasion is unclear. The day after he seemed to endorse al-Maliki's removal, Bush backtracked, reiterating his support for the prime minister and calling him a "good guy."

But Allawi's supporters are heartened by signs that Washington is coming round to the view that al-Maliki might not be a permanent figure.

Two days before Bush spoke, Allawi signed a $300,000 contract with the Washington lobbying firm of Barbour, Griffiths and Rogers to represent his interests, according to a copy of the contract obtained by the Web site Iraqslogger.com and confirmed by Allawi on CNN. The head of the firm's international relations department is Robert Blackwill, a longtime adviser to Bush who served as his special envoy to Iraq.

"Even when Bush tried to modify what he said, he did not go so far," said Izzat Shabandar, a strategist with the Allawi bloc. "We know that Bush from inside would like to replace Maliki, but he did not say it clearly. He chose to say it in a diplomatic way."

As a secularist, Allawi has pledged to end the politics of sectarianism that have plagued Iraq. He is pro-Western, an old Washington ally, who would seek to prise Iraq away from Iran's sphere of influence. He also has the support of former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party and most Iraqi Sunni insurgent groups, excluding Al Qaeda in Iraq, which have indicated they would stop fighting if Allawi were installed.

But those features also make him unpalatable to the Shiite majority, who suffered most under Baathist rule and who have borne the brunt of the insurgency's wrath. Allawi's 10-month tenure in 2004-05 was marked by rampant allegations of corruption, and several of his closest aides have been charged in connection with millions of missing dollars.

So other alternatives are being pondered. The name of Adel Abdel-Mahdi, the current Shiite vice president, frequently crops up. He was favored by the U.S. over al-Maliki after the last election, and he has Shiite and Kurdish support.

But Abdel-Mahdi is also a member of the Iran-founded and backed Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution, making him unacceptable to many of the staunchly anti-Iranian Sunnis falling into line behind Allawi.

Former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, who succeeded Allawi, is also back in the picture, making a push to lead a breakaway faction of al-Maliki's Dawa Party. But al-Jaafari hardly fared better than al-Maliki, his former aide, as prime minister, and many Sunnis remain deeply suspicious of him.

Other names circulating include lesser-known figures with no grass-roots support but also no controversial ties, such as the former planning minister in Allawi's government, Mehdi al-Hafidh; an independent Sunni parliamentarian, Mithal al-Alusi; and even a former general in Hussein's army, Raed al-Hamdani.

Still, the parliamentary math doesn't add up in favor of the Allawi bloc. To secure a majority, the coalition must win the support of the Kurds, who thus far have remained staunchly behind their Shiite allies, or the Sadrist bloc loyal to anti-American Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr.

Sadr has withdrawn his ministers from al-Maliki's government, and his aides have met several times with the Allawi bloc. But Sadr's suspension of the Mahdi Army militia's activities earlier this week was taken as a sign of support for al-Maliki ahead of the crucial progress report due to be delivered this month to Congress by Gen. David Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq.

Exploring alternatives

Though Allawi has flown from Amman, where he usually lives, to Kurdistan to try to woo Kurdish leaders, several previous efforts in the past have foundered on the Kurds' conviction that a Shiite-led government would better secure their interests in the new Iraq.

Nonetheless, al-Maliki's failure thus far to deliver on almost all the key measures of progress set forth by the Bush administration and evidence that his coalition is falling apart suggest Washington may soon have to explore alternatives, said al-Mutlaq.

"The Americans finally will support us because they don't have another solution," he said, sipping tea and chain-smoking in the coffee shop at one of Amman's top hotels as a steady stream of Iraqi exiles and members of parliament wandered in and out. "If all these things don't work out, it is the people who will make a coup. They will rise up, and there will be a coup all over Iraq."

Some see 'coup' as Iraq's best hope -- chicagotribune.com

Saudis mull next move on Iraq embassy

JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia (AFP) - Saudi Arabia is examining a report by a technical team which recently visited Iraq to decide its next move on reopening its embassy in Baghdad, a minister said on Saturday.

"A delegation went to Baghdad to undertake technical contacts to pave the way for the opening of Saudi Arabia's embassy in Baghdad," Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Nizar bin Obaid Madani told reporters in the Red Sea city of Jeddah.

The mission was warmly received and received "full cooperation" from officials in Baghdad, Madani said.

His remarks followed a meeting of foreign ministers of the six Gulf Cooperation Council member states, and were aired on the Saudi news channel Al-Ikhbariya.

"We are currently studying the report presented by the delegation, and in the light of its content we will proceed to take the next steps to open the embassy there," Madani said.

Saudi Arabia announced during a visit by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice a month ago that a diplomatic mission would go to Iraq to consider reopening its embassy.

The move would mark a new stage in ties between the Sunni authorities in Riyadh and the Shiite-led Baghdad government.

Oil-rich Saudi Arabia has been suspicious of the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, fearing that it is under the influence of its Shiite regional rival Iran.

Iraq reopened its embassy in Saudi Arabia last February after it had been closed in December 1990 on the eve of the 1991 Gulf War when ties were broken off by Saddam Hussein's regime.

The two countries restored diplomatic relations in July 2004, a year after the US-led invasion and ouster of the Iraqi dictator. But Saudi Arabia's embassy in Iraq remained shut because of insecurity in the war-torn country.

Saudis mull next move on Iraq embassy - Yahoo! News UK

GIX = Gulf Iraqi Expo - 1st - 3rd November, 2007 - Manama, Bahrain

Al Warka is gold sponsor and the official bank of GIX

Al Warka Bank for Finance and Investment has joined GIX as gold sponsor since this big event will bring the Iraqi officials and businessmen together with reputable companies from the Gulf and *********.

In addition, the bank has signed an agreement with GIX organizers to be the logistic partner and the official bank of the event.
The agreement was signed by the CEO of I-vision for Public Relations and Media from the organizers part and by the Executive Manger Shaymaa Sadi Taqi from the bank part.

Al Warka bank, through its branches throughout Iraq, will provide the Iraqi businessmen who are interested in attending the event with the registration applications. The bank will also offer the registered individuals credit cards with 30% discount.

With its most efficient team, the bank is one of the pioneer banks in Iraq in the finance and investment services. Al Warka Bank works within the highest standards, using the most updated techniques of investment methods which help the customer in taking the right financial decision in the right timing.

In addition to the credit cards (Visa cards), the bank will launch Western Union services ********* and internet banking services also ATM services starting from the first of next September through its financial and investment department –HQ.

The organizers will provide the bank with promotional material and a specially- programmed software to be used for attendees registration.

http://www.gixexpo.com/Warka%20bank%20-%20English.pdf

Iraqi government plagued by corruption

1 hour, 16 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (AFP) - A US government report has reportedly found that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government is plagued by corruption and has quashed investigations of political allies.

The draft report from the US embassy in Baghdad says Maliki's government is failing to stop officials from committing fraud and is undermining its own watchdog agency, preventing it from carrying out effective investigations, National Public Radio reported on air and on its website.


The government has withheld funds from the commission on public integrity, the country's anti-corruption agency, and in some cases the prime minister's office has quashed probes into politicians allied with the government, NPR said.


Some ministries, such as the interior ministry, "are seen as untouchable because of their political connections to the government," NPR correspondent Corey Flintoff said from Baghdad.


The US report and accounts from employees at government ministries give the impression "that corruption is completely sapping the country's resources," with top officials at the interior ministry profiting from contracts for equipment, Flintoff said on NPR's program "All Things Considered."


The report recommends the State Department provide more support to the Iraqi watchdog agency, including using US forces to protect the agency's staff, some of whom have been murdered on the job, NPR said.


The Iraqi investigators should be allowed to carry weapons and their families should receive police protection, the US government report also said.


NPR said the report was "sensitive" but not classified.


An embassy official told NPR the report was still in draft form and that there was some question about the reliability of some of the sources cited in it.

Iraqi government plagued by corruption - Yahoo! Canada News

Iraq leftists protest key oil bill

11 hours ago

BAGHDAD (AFP) — Dozens of Iraqis protested in central Baghdad on Saturday against the expected debate in parliament later this month of a draft oil law Washington deems a cornerstone of reconciliation efforts.

The demonstration was called by left-wing groups opposed to moves to open up Iraq's oil and gas sector to Western firms in the same bill that aims to reassure Sunnis that earnings will be fairly shared among the country's divided communities.

Protest organisers used microphones to denounce the draft law, which has already been approved by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's cabinet, saying it should not be passed while the United States is still calling the shots.

"The occupier is trying to impose this law by pressurising the weak Maliki government which rapidly endorsed the law and sent it to the so-called House of Deputies for endorsement," trade union leader Subhi al-Badri told AFP.

"The occupier has interfered and even demanded that deputies shorten their leave in order to endorse such a vital law which is the main reason behind the occupation," he added.

Parliament reconvenes for the debate next week after a month's summer holiday but Washington had opposed MPs even taking that recess.

"This very law aims at stealing the wealth of Iraq," Badri said.

"We will work to bring down the law with the support of five million Iraqi workers and our response will be halting oil exports and dismissing foreign companies from Iraq, including those which have started work."

Norway's DNO, Turkish group Petoil and the Canadian company Western Oil Sands have already signed production-sharing contracts with the autonomous Kurdish regional government in the north.

Communist party official Rashid Ismail said consideration of a bill so important to Iraq's economic future should be delayed until security has been restored.

"We reject the law because it has been drawn up under the tragic circumstances the country is experiencing," he said.

Tens of thousands of Iraqis have been killed and more than four million fled their homes since US-led forces invaded in 2003.

The draft oil and gas law provides for earnings to be shared equally between Iraq's 18 provinces in a bid to allay Sunni fears they will be monopolised by Kurdish and Shiite provinces which contain the oilfields.

But it also opens up Iraq's long state-controlled hydrocarbons sector to foreign involvement.

AFP: Iraq leftists protest key oil bill

The Benchmarks Iraq Is Meeting -- And One It Thankfully Is Not

September 01, 2007

The Government Accountability Office has confirmed the obvious: the "benchmarks" the U.S. Congress set out to assess progress in the Iraq war will not be met by a September deadline.

Unfortunately, it turns out that Iraq is making major strides in meeting another set of benchmarks: those imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

At the end of 2005, the IMF entered into a stand-by agreement with Iraq. The deal makes IMF funding available to Iraq in exchange for the country adhering to certain IMF policy dictates. More important than the IMF monies, however, adherence to the agreement was a condition for Iraq receiving major reductions in its obligations to repay the enormous debts acquired under Saddam's regime.

The IMF has just released Iraq's most recent Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding, dated July 17. The conceit of these documents is that they are "country-owned" and constitute a report on a country's own decision to pursue the policies to which it has committed with the IMF. Everyone understands, however, that the policies are imposed by the IMF, and the reports are the supplicant country's attempt to stay in the good graces of its financial master. Combined, the documents just released report on Iraq's progress in meeting IMF-demanded policies.

With one crucial exception -- privatization of the oil sector -- Iraq reports it is making concrete progress in satisfying IMF demands that it turn its economy over to private corporations, cut back on government size and the government's role in the economy, and withdraw labor protections.

The Iraqi government reports that:

* "We will continue resisting undue wage and pension increases and bonuses."

* It is strictly limiting hiring in the public sector "in order to keep the wage bill within the budgeted amount."

* It is cutting back on public pension expenditures, including by eliminating inflation indexation -- a huge effective reduction in pension payments in a country where the inflation rate is 19 percent.

* Those public enterprises that have not been sold off or given away to private corporations -- a top priority of former Coalition Provisional Authority head Paul Bremer -- will be forced to operate like for-profit businesses, an almost certain prelude to subsequent privatization.

* It has undertaken measures to ensure foreign investors receive the same treatment as Iraqi firms.

* Tariff rates will be maintained at extremely low levels (5 percent), imposing enormous challenges for Iraqi firms that obviously must seek to operate in the most trying of economic circumstances.

But the news is not entirely bleak.

Apart from some non-trivial accounting issues, the one key area where the Iraqi government is not meeting IMF targets is privatization of the oil sector. (Presumably because this is also a key Congressional benchmark, the government does not acknowledge its growing troubles in this area. Instead, it states, "The GoI [Government of Iraq] will continue its efforts towards developing a competitive and transparent hydrocarbon sector. Draft hydrocarbon legislation will be submitted to the CoR [Council of Representatives] when final agreement between all concerned parties has been reached, possibly in the next few months. The envisaged legislative package includes a draft oil and gas law to regulate the sector, a draft law to reestablish the Iraq National Oil Company, a draft law reorganizing the MoO [Ministry of Oil], and a draft financial management law on the sharing of oil revenues.")

This remarkable -- and welcome -- failure reflects massive Iraqi opposition to Big Oil's designs to gain control of Iraq's oil resources, and the success of an international campaign to shine a spotlight on Big Oil's planned oil grab. Every ethnic and geographic grouping in Iraq believes Iraq's oil should be developed under the control of Iraqi state-owned companies rather than multinationals. Overall, Iraqis hold this position by a two-to-one margin, according to a July poll.

Says Antonia Juhasz of Oil Change International, "everyone thought this law was going to pass because no one knew what it was. Now that people know what it is, it seems far less likely that it will actually pass."

It is far too simple to say that popular mobilization can defeat the IMF's extraordinary power, because there are countless examples of governments imposing draconian IMF policies de****e popular uprisings, riots and insurrections. And Iraq appears to be acceding to most of what the IMF has demanded, outside of the crucial oil sector.

But especially because the IMF is now in a weakened state, a mobilized public in borrower countries now has a chance at resisting the IMF's Big Business-friendly, anti-labor, anti-public health, anti-development policies. Iraq has far more resources than the poor African countries still most subject to IMF authoritarianism, but Iraq is also beleaguered by chaos and division exceeding that in all but a few nations. If the Iraqis can push back against the IMF -- and the other powerful actors seeking to transfer control of Iraq's oil to multinational corporate control -- then there should be hope for resistance everywhere.

ZNet |Iraq | The Benchmarks Iraq Is Meeting -- And One It Thankfully Is Not