Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

White House sees new backing from Congress over Iraq

WASHINGTON (AFP) - US President George W. Bush is gaining support among both wavering Republicans and anti-war Democrats for his embattled Iraq strategy, a top White House aide said Sunday.

Speaking as Congress awaits a pivotal report on the progress of Bush's "surge" of nearly 30,000 more troops, new White House counselor Ed Gillespie said the deployment was curbing Iraq's rampant bloodshed.

During August, he told Fox News, the surge "has had the intended effect of helping to secure the population, and that is now translating into the goal of allowing for progress to be made on the political front in Iraq as well."

"And so I think that we hear from members of Congress from both sides of the aisle who have been over to Iraq during this August break who have come back and have seen this progress and have told their constituents about it."

US lawmakers will return from their summer break for a week of hearings and political theater to set the stage for Bush's critical progress report on the Iraq war, due by September 15.

In the week of September 9, war commander General David Petraeus and US ambassador to Baghdad Ryan Crocker will deliver their verdicts on the surge effort, in one of the most significant appearances in Congress for years.

This week, three hearings in Congress will examine a report by the Government Accountability Office, which reportedly says the Iraqi government has fallen woefully short of benchmarks for progress set by US lawmakers.

At stake is the fate of Bush's last-ditch strategy, announced in January, to deploy an extra 28,500 troops into Iraq, after a highly unpopular four-year war that has killed more than 3,700 US troops and tens of thousands of civilians.

The president wants to maintain the surge into early next year, but Democrats are set to try again to force him to bring most combat forces home by May. They insist that Iraqi authorities have failed to hold up their end of the bargain.

"The purpose of this surge was to give breathing room to acquire some political reconciliation. There is no political reconciliation," Democratic Senator Joseph Biden, a 2008 White House contender, told CBS.

"It doesn't matter how many troops we put there. Unless you have a political settlement, when we leave we're going to leave chaos behind. You'll find you have a regional war," he said.

The White House has taken heart from a UPI/Zogby poll last week that said 54 percent of Americans believe the Iraq war is not lost. But the poll also found that 49 percent of respondents said the surge strategy was not working.

Gillespie said the mood of some dissident Republicans would be clearer this week when Congress reconvenes.

"But my sense is that people agree that it would be premature to impose an artificial time line for withdrawal on our troops at a time when we are seeing progress being made," the White House counselor said.

"And a policy of premature, precipitous withdrawal from Iraq would be the wrong policy and would have very dangerous consequences for the American people here at home," he said.

Late last month, influential Republican Senator John Warner broke ranks with the White House and called for Bush to pull some troops out of Iraq by Christmas, to pressure the Iraqi government into taking more responsibility.

Speaking on CNN Sunday, fellow Republican Senator Richard Shelby said Warner's call was "on the right track" but that "General Petraeus is the one to deliver that message."

"My own personal belief is that we will be withdrawing some troops," said Shelby, who had a close call on a visit to Baghdad last week when the C-130 plane his congressional delegation was travelling in came under rocket fire.

Shelby said that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki "didn't seem to have time to meet with" his delegation -- which included two other Republican senators and a Democratic representative.

"And I thought that was a bad sign in itself," he said, joining other US lawmakers who have been pressuring Maliki in recent weeks.

"We should send the strongest message in the world to the Iraqi government that if you are not going to do something, we're going to leave."

White House sees new backing from Congress over Iraq - Yahoo! News UK

Sadr movement threatens government to make "unexpected" decisions

Najaf, Sept 2, (VOI)- The office of the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in Najaf on Sunday threatened in a statement the Iraqi government and local authorities in Karbala to make decisions described by the statement as "unexpected" if it failed to start a fair and impartial investigation into the incidents that took place last week in Shiite sacred city of Karbala.

"The Sadr movement has been trying since the beginning of the acts of violence last week to stop Muslims' bloodshed," the Sadr movement's head-office in Najaf said in a statement received by the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).

The statement added "in view of the delay in the works of the investigation committee over the last two days, we urged the Iraqi government and the local authorities in Karbala to conduct an impartial and fair investigation into the recent incidents, otherwise the Sadr office will find itself obliged to make "unexpected" decisions."

Last week, Karbala witnessed armed clashes between the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army and Iraqi security forces near the holy Shiite shrines of Imam Hussein and his brother Abbas.

Aswat Aliraq

Americans pushing to stop Ahmadinejad's Iraq visit

Baghdad: The expected visit of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Iraq in what will be the first ever visit of an Iranian president to the country, has split Baghdad government.

Ahmadinejad's remark that Iran is ready to fill the vacuum that would be left after US troops withdraw from Iraq has also put the trip under spotlight.

Sources in Dawa Party, headed by Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki, revealed that Americans have notified Al Maliki about their reservations towards Ahmadinejad's expected visit.

The source told Gulf News: "There is a split in Iraqi government's stance - some welcome the ... visit while others are ... reluctant because Iran has not taken serious measures to stop ... Iraqi militias."

Sources in the Sunni Islamic Party, led by Tarek Al Hashemi, told Gulf News: "There is an American pressure on Al Maliki not to come close to Iran and thus it is unwise for the Iraqi Prime Minister to apologise to Ahmadinejad."

Key concerns

Ahmad Al Khafaji, member of Dawa Party, told Gulf News: "[Some inside the government seek postponement] of Ahmadinejad's visit to Baghdad. Yet information reveals contacts continued between the two countries to fix a date for the Iranian President's visit to Iraq for the first time in three decades."

During Ahmadinejad's visit, the security situation will be a significant concern to Al Maliki government.

Sattar Al Khalidi, a researcher in Iranian affairs, told Gulf News: "Al Maliki's recent visit to Iran was supposed to touch upon all matters concerning the two countries but there is an urgent Iranian desire for Ahmadinejad's visit to Baghdad and I think they seek to provoke Americans out of it. As for some elements in Iraqi government, they believe that Ahmadinejad's visit is a moral achievement of Al Maliki's government apart from being an irritation to the Americans."

A Baghdad newspaper close to the opposition commented: "The Iranian President's visit to Baghdad will not come up with benefits for Iraq particularly when Karbala events showed that Iran did not take measures to stop militia activities which led to an armed rebellion against Al Maliki government."

Abu Haider Al Mossawi, leader of Badr Organisation of the Islamic Supreme Council led by Abdul Aziz Al Hakim, thinks the opposite. He told Gulf News: "President Ahmadinejad's visit demonstrates that Iraq and Iran are independent countries .... It is possible to ask Iran to play a positive role to support Iraq's security situation. As for irritating Americans, it is a reality happening with or without Ahmadinejad's visit."

Gulfnews: Americans pushing to stop Ahmadinejad's Iraq visit

Middle East Economic Survey

VOL. L
No 36
3-September-2007

Perspectives On Iraqi Oil And Politics
By Walid Khadduri

The following is the paper delivered by Walid Khadduri to the Oxford Energy Seminar on 29 August, and published here with the author’s permission. Dr Khadduri was formerly Economics Editor of al-Hayat and Editor-In-Chief of MEES.

During the past quarter of a century, Iraq was devastated by wars and international sanctions, with scant investment in the oil industry during this turbulent period. Iraq today needs a modern oil industry that can increase production capacity to a level commensurate with its huge proven reserves of 115bn barrels distributed over approximately 80 fields that are variously developed, semi-developed, or undeveloped. Production has been limited to around 2mn b/d, with exports averaging 1.5mn b/d in 2007. However, serious security problems continue to haunt the country, with a heavy toll on the economy generally and the oil sector particularly.

As many as 1,001 civilian contractors have been killed since the 2003 invasion, according to a 7 August press release from the US Labor Department. Furthermore, the oil industry is considered a primary target by the insurgents with an approximate average of around one daily attack during 2005 and 2006. The Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) estimates that as of the beginning of December 2006, some 374 incidents had targeted the oil/gas industry in 2006, including attacks on oil pipelines, production installations and personnel. A total of 285 incidents were recorded in 2005, and 185 in 2004.

Dominant Oil Issue

Whatever the real reasons for the invasion of Iraq in 2003, oil was considered by Iraqi and international public opinion as one of the main reasons behind the adventure. But the oil issue remained dormant in Iraq, without much public discussion, until 2007, when work started in earnest to draft the oil law. A public debate ensued as to whether the war was because of oil and whether the oil law would serve the best interests of the Iraqi people. The Maliki government tried to draft an oil law that would launch the Iraqi oil industry in new directions. However, the timing was not conducive for a constructive debate. It took place during the height of a civil war, sectarianism, occupation, the failure of the religious parties to govern and administer, and the absence of an effective government, as well as rising corruption, chronic shortages of petroleum products and electric power.

The US Government Accountability Office report published in early May 2007 said that “between 100,000 and 300,000 b/d of Iraq's declared oil production over the past four years is unaccounted for and could have been siphoned off through corruption or smuggling.” This translates into an average loss of crude oil and petroleum products revenue of around $10mn daily to the Iraqi Treasury. The mid-July 2007 Iraqi Ministry of Oil General Inspector Office report stated that, “Iraq lost around $24.7bn since 2003 because of violence and political instability which have damaged existing projects and delayed new ones.”

With such damaging reports, as well as the turbulent history of oil politics in Iraq, and with the importance of oil to the country’s economy, it is not surprising that the oil law became embroiled in the country's many political problems and encountered much opposition from scores of oil experts and professionals and the oil workers union, as well as various political parties.

Bush Administration Priority

The Bush administration placed the oil law high on its Iraqi priorities for 2007, mainly to address its own domestic agenda and demonstrate to the Democrat-led Congress that was progress being achieved in Iraq, de****e the military and political setbacks, and in order to win support for extending the mandate of the troops. The sudden US high-profile interest and public pressure to hastily pass the oil law raised many questions since it is not possible for international oil companies (IOCs) to invest and operate in Iraq in the absence of the minimum requirements for safety, particularly in the absence of a new Social Contract among the Iraqis, and while Iraq is a major theatre in the world war against terrorism, while its army has been dissolved, and Congress is deliberating an eventual withdrawal of US troops.

The prospects for a more peaceful future also look bleak. The US is discussing with Iran ‘the Security of Iraq’, while the jury is still out on the balance of power among the political parties and militia in the oil-rich south and a decisive referendum is scheduled at end-2007 on the future of the northern oil city of Kirkuk, on whether it should join the Kurdistan Region or not. Meanwhile, Turkey is threatening to invade the north, and the long-discussed confrontation between Washington and Tehran appears to be more serious than in the past, with southern Iraq as a possible battleground for this conflict, if and when it erupts.

The Oil Law

The federal oil law is a package of upstream sector and revenue sharing legislation, as well as legislation to regulate the Ministry of Oil and the Iraq National Oil Company (INOC). In May 2006, Oil Minister Husain al-Shahristani formed a committee of three prominent Iraqi oil experts to draft the oil law: Thamir al-Ghadhban, oil adviser to Mr Maliki and former oil minister; Faruq al-Kassim, expert with the Norwegian oil industry with extensive experience in drafting oil laws for developing countries; and Tariq Shafiq, founding member of the Iraq National Oil Company, now with the London-based consulting firm, Petrolog & Associates. The draft, completed in August 2006, was adopted by the Ministry of Oil and submitted to the prime minister, who in turn appointed a ministerial subcommittee, headed by the Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh, to review it. The committee represented a spectrum of interests, including federal representatives and officials from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The committee’s deliberations, over eight months, focused mainly on the role and status of the provinces versus the federal authorities, finally agreeing unanimously on a draft during 1Q 2007. Nonetheless, the KRG authorities disassociated themselves from this early version, alleging that they did not receive a copy of the four attachments, three of which allocate the discovered fields between the Iraq National Oil Company (INOC), the Ministry of Oil, and the regions, while the fourth defines 65 exploration blocks.

Not surprisingly, the main disagreements were between the KRG representatives and federal officials. The differences were expected since the hydrocarbon articles of the constitution are confusing and ambiguous. Consequently a series of political compromises were made by both sides, at the expense of an efficient management system. The problem is that the 2005 constitution does not specifically define oil policy as one of the functions of the federal authorities, de****e the fact that Iraq earns over 90% of its annual revenue from crude oil exports (around $34bn in 2007). Jurisdiction on drawing up oil policy and monitoring the industry was left purposely vague, leaving the door open for different interpretations of who is responsible for the upstream sector.

Articles 110 And 109

Article 110 of the constitution refers to the joint formulation of various economic activities, but does not mention oil policy: “The following competencies shall be shared between the federal and regional authorities: First: To administer customs in coordination with the government of the regions and governorates that are not organized in a region. This will be organized by law. Second: To administer the main sources of electric energy and its distribution. Third: To formulate the environmental policy to ensure the protection of the environment from pollution and to preserve its cleanness in cooperation with the regions and governorates that are not organized in a region. Fourth: To formulate the development and general planning policies. Fifth: To formulate the public health policy in cooperation with the regions and governorates that are organized in a region. Sixth: To formulate the public educational and institutional policy in consultation with the regions and governorates that are not organized in a region. Seventh: To formulate and organize the main internal water sources policy in a way that guarantees fair distribution. This will be organized by law.”

Article 109 calls for federal and regional cooperation of already producing fields, but there is purposely no mention of jurisdiction over newly discovered fields: “First, The federal government with the producing governorates and regional governments shall undertake the management of oil and gas extracted from current fields provided that it distributes oil and gas revenues in a fair manner in proportion to the population distribution in all parts of the country with a set allotment for a set time for the damaged regions that were unjustly deprived by the former regime and the regions that were damaged later on, and in a way that assures balanced development in different areas of the country, and this will be regulated by law. Second: The federal government with the producing regional and governorate governments shall together formulate the necessary strategic policies to develop the oil and gas wealth in a way that achieves the highest benefit to the Iraqi people using the most advanced techniques of the market principles and encourages investment.”

KRG Oil Minister Ashti Hawrami was clear in his own mind about who is responsible for managing the oil industry, stating in a speech in Irbil on 6 August 2007, following the passage by the local parliament of the Kurdish oil and gas law, that “under the Constitution of Iraq, oil and gas management is primarily a regional right, and our success depends upon us exercising that right.”

Articles 111 And 112

There was also contradiction between articles 111 and 112. Article 111 stipulates that “all powers not stipulated in the exclusive authorities of the federal government shall be the powers of the regions and governorates that are not organized in a region. The priority goes to the regional law in case of conflict between other powers shared between the federal government and regional governments.” Article 112 states that “the federal system in the Republic of Iraq is made up of a decentralized capital, regions and governorates, and local administrations.”

The final draft of the federal oil law basically represents a series of political compromises that overlaps federal and regional roles in the oil decision-making process. Two of the authors of the original federal oil law have spoken publicly against the final draft, as did the State Consultative Council, which reviews all bills sent by the cabinet to the federal parliament. In a memo addressed to the cabinet on 31 May 2007, the Council stated, among other things, that: “The Council is of the opinion that the authority to issue permits for drilling, development, and production and the permits for development and production should be the sole authority of the central authority (federal) because oil and gas are the property of the Iraqi people, and the government represents the Iraqi people, moreover, the regions and the governorates do not have experience in this field.”

These differences over the interpretation of the hydrocarbon articles in the constitution do not bode well for a dynamic and modern Iraqi oil industry. What could happen in the future under these ambiguous allocations of responsibility is a delayed oil decision-making process in the Federal Petroleum Committee, to be headed by the prime minister. It will be responsible, among other functions, for establishing regional production quotas within Iraq’s overall OPEC quota. The constitution and the oil law also ignore other issues, such as the fact that there are already around 415 structural surface and subsurface anomalies that straddle provincial boundaries, hence it is important for the sake of an efficient resource management of the country’s oil and gas potential to administer the industry in a unitized manner, and with unified plans.

Kurds’ Oil Law

The Kurdistan parliament, as if to challenge the federal authorities and to hurry them to deliberate on the federal draft, passed on 6 August, 2007 its local oil and gas law. This is based primarily on the KRG interpretation of articles 109-115 of the constitution, which omit petroleum from the list of exclusive powers of the federal authorities and view the role of the federal government as merely administrative, ie, responsible for exports and marketing. These articles give the regional government the right to initiate contacts and negotiate with IOCs. A model contract was published and posted on the KRG website.

The KRG has also preempted the issuance of the federal law and signed production-sharing contracts with IOCs, and announced that it will hold a large-scale licensing round based on production-sharing agreements (PSA), now that the local law is passed, even though the federal law does not specify PSA as a model contract. Contracts have already been signed with a number of IOCs. KRG officials put preliminary estimate of the oil reserves in their region at 45bn barrels, some 25bn barrels of them proven, compared to Iraq’s proven reserves of around 115bn barrels. They also expect oil production from their region to exceed 200,000 b/d by 2008.

The Ministerial Economic Subcommittee also witnessed differences over the “oil-revenue distribution system”, the second item in the “oil law package”. It was finally agreed between the representatives of the federal authorities and the KRG to establish two “regulated and monitored” accounts into which external and internal revenues would be deposited. The external account would include items such as oil export earnings and foreign assistance funds. The internal fund consists of taxes and customs. The federal government would deduct first what is required for the federal budget and the remainder would be automatically distributed monthly to the KRG, which would receive 17% of the net revenue, and to the other provinces “according to their entitlement”. A Fund for Future Generations was also established without specifying what percentage of the oil revenue would be appropriated to it annually, nor how funds would be withdrawn from it and for what purpose.

The federal government plans, once the federal law is approved, to auction up to 15% of the nation’s oil and gas land resources. The emphasis on exploration so soon, when there are already scores of discovered fields awaiting development has raised questions concerning the priority that should be allotted for exploration at this stage. Prioritizing discovered fields would raise production capacity to around 5mn b/d early in the next decade, and would be of much financial benefit for the country in the near future.

Also a matter of concern are reports circulating widely among the IOCs that half-a-dozen discovered giant fields would be awarded to major US firms, without a bidding process, to compensate for the $2 trillion cost of the war and the occupation, and to reward Washington for overthrowing the previous regime. The oil law provides for production-sharing contracts and development-production agreements; but it does not state clearly what kind of contracts apply to the already discovered fields, leaving the door open for awarding production-sharing contracts for this category of oil-bearing regions, without any geological risk being undertaken by the operator.

Political Stability/New Oil Industry

The challenge of building a modern oil industry in Iraq, with the cooperation of IOCs, lies not only with soothing the political fears of the public as a result of past experiences, but also assuring the presence of a credible and transparent political system, with the minimum assurances of security and stability. Today over 4mn Iraqis, around 2% of the population, have been displaced domestically because of ethnic cleansing or forced immigration. Approximately 70,000 civilians have been killed since 2003 and are more are losing their lives daily. Al-Qa΄ida terrorists control several entry routes to Baghdad (west, east and south) and major districts of the capital. Armed militias and gangsters operate without due process of law. The weakening of state institutions and dissolution of the armed forces have provided an opportunity for neighboring countries to spread their influence and increase their interference in Iraqi affairs. This is especially the case with Iran, which has wide and diversified contacts with the militias.

The decline of the influence of Baghdad has also provided for unhealthy and dangerous relations between some of the provinces and neighboring countries. There is fear that the Turkish army may invade northern Iraq because of allegations that PKK fighters are attacking Turkish targets from bases there, and with the aim of deterring the establishment of a Kurdish state. Iranian influence is rising in Basra, which has around 90% of the country’s oil reserves. The bottom line is that Iraqis have to agree on what kind of a political and social system they want for their country. This necessitates the drawing up of a new Social Contract, with broad popular support, rather than one conceived on the basis of the majority rule of a single religious sect. The experience since 2002 has proven to be a total failure.

A modern oil industry, with the help of the IOCs, could assist in invigorating the country with more financial resources and opportunities, provided it is done in a credible and transparent manner after the end of the occupation. But it is not easy to build a modern oil industry in Iraq under the current unstable conditions. After establishing the rule of law across the country will come the challenge of turning a new page in relations with IOCs, given Iraq’s checkered history with them in the past.

Finally, the Iraqi oil law model should also be of concern to neighboring oil producing countries. For if this model takes hold, and Washington adopts it as an example to be followed by other countries in the region, with greater power and authority given to the provinces at the expense of the oil ministries and national oil companies, then it will mean a radical change in the way Middle Eastern oil industries are managed, which would cause much dislocation and setbacks for steady and secure supplies of oil.

Perspectives On Iraqi Oil And Politics

BP ready to take Iraq oil, gas opportunities

Mon Sep 3, 2007

DUBAI (Reuters) - BP is ready to compete for the opportunities that arise in Iraq's oil and gas sector once the country passes its oil and gas law, a senior executive said on Sunday.

Iraq's parliament has yet to debate the controversial oil law, but was expected to consider it this month. Washington has pushed Iraq for months to speed up passage of the oil law, which is among legislation it sees as pivotal to reconciling warring Iraqis and attracting foreign investment.

"We've studied all of Iraq and absolutely have a view on which are the relatively good looking prospects," Steve Peacock, president of BP's Middle East and South Asia Exploration and Production unit, told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in Dubai.

"Whether it turns out to be a licensing round or some other form of offering, we're ready."

Iraq's oil minister said last month the government hopes to call an open tender to develop its oilfields as early as this month if the law was passed. Developing the oil sector and boosting export revenues are key to reconstructing the country's shattered economy.

The contracts and terms that Iraq may offer oil companies to work on its prized oilfields have yet to be defined.

The type of contract was much less important than ensuring the terms were attractive for both the oil company and the government, Peacock said.

"There are many forms of contract that can find that sweet spot in the middle," Peacock said.

Oil companies tend to regard short-term service agreements as less of a lure than longer-term production sharing agreements.

Service agreements could be attractive if the terms compensate for the skills, tools and experience that international oil companies bring to the table, Peacock said.

BP would be unable to send people to work in Iraq until the security improves, he said.

"We hope that happens soon for the sake of Iraqi people, not just so that we can go in and do business," he said.


RUMAILA

Recommendations that BP has made to Iraq on the southern Rumaila oilfields have had a positive effect on output there, Peacock said.

Studies that BP carried out on Rumaila, one of Iraq's largest oilfields, showed that production could be boosted quickly with application of modern techniques, he added. He declined to detail the potential increase.

"This ought to be encouraging for Iraq, although I can't say if all the fields look lie Rumaila."

Years of war and sanctions and more recently insecurity have led to chronic underinvestment in Iraq's oil sector and led to concern of permanent damage to oil reservoirs at fields such as Rumaila.

BP, like many other international oil companies hoping for eventual access to the world's third-largest oil reserves, has a memorandum of understanding with Iraq's central government to provide technical assistance and training.

BP was also looking at gas and alternative energy opportunities in Iraq, he said.


REGION

BP was eyeing potential opportunities for growth in the Middle East in Jordan, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Oman, Peacock said.

BP's focus for new opportunities was on producer plans to boost oil capacity and recovery rates and also developing supplies to meet the region's rapidly growing gas demand, he said. A petrodollar-fuelled boom is driving gas demand higher across the Middle East.

BP was also eyeing plans by governments in the region to encourage the capture and storage of greenhouse gas emissions, he said.



BP ready to take Iraq oil, gas opportunities | Business | Reuters

‘Iraq oil law can pass by easy majority’

Published: Sunday, 2 September, 2007, 06:18 AM Doha Time

DUBAI: Iraq’s draft oil law should pass by a comfortable majority when parliament meets to discuss it after the end of its summer break in September, Iraqi Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi said.

“The oil law was completed in cabinet... the draft that was approved in cabinet is the one that will be presented to parliament,” he told Reuters.

“The parliament remains now in recess and will return at the start of September when we will reaffirm that the law will be presented to the parliament.”

The controversial federal oil law has been approved by the Iraqi government after months of talks but has yet to be debated by parliament, which must approve it if it is to pass into law.

The law, which decides who controls the world’s third-largest oil reserves, is now in limbo while Iraq’s parliament takes its summer break.

No date has been set to debate the law, which aims to provide a legal framework to attract foreign investment and sets up a new state oil firm to oversee the sector.
Washington has pushed Iraq for months to speed up its passage and that of other legislation, which it sees as pivotal to reconciling warring Iraqis, rebuilding Iraq’s shattered economy and attracting foreign investment.

The draft oil law aims to ease tension by ensuring Sunni Arabs share in oil profits though most of the reserves are in the Kurdish north and the Shia Muslim south of the country.
But there has been fierce debate over the shares and how much control regional governments will have over the existing and undiscovered oil reserves, as well as the sorts of contracts that will be included.

Abdul-Mahdi said that some appendices to the law could be included to ensure the broadest possible political consensus, even though the law was expected to pass comfortably as it is.

“There are some parliamentary blocs that call for the addition of some appendices to this law. Fine, the committee is studying this and the appendices could be included in this law de****e the fact that if the voting took place in parliament now... the law would be expected to pass with a comfortable majority,” he said.

“But in the interests of national consensus, it is seen that their addition would be more beneficial and get a higher level of consensus than the comfortable majority that would be expected if it was presented now.”

Abdul-Mahdi was among Iraq’s top five Sunni, Shia and Kurdish political leaders who have announced that they had reached consensus on measures considered vital to fostering national reconciliation in a country riven by sectarian strife.

The agreement was one of the most significant political developments in Iraq for months and was welcomed by Washington.

Iraqi officials said the leaders agreed on draft legislation to ease curbs on former members of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party entering the military and civil service and endorsed the draft oil law, though a statement from President Jalal Talabani’s office said more discussion was needed on the oil law. – Reuters

Gulf Times – Qatar’s top-selling English daily newspaper - Finance & Business

Iraq PM says key draft law sent to parliament

03 Sep 2007

Source: Reuters

BAGHDAD, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Iraq's government has submitted to parliament a key draft law aimed at easing curbs on former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party joining the civil service and military, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said on Monday.

The draft is one of the key measures the United States has said was needed to foster reconciliation between warring majority Shi'ites and minority Sunni Arabs.

Many Baath party members were Sunni Arabs who now feel persecuted by Maliki's government.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L03190508.htm

Iraqi dinar trading permit extended

Finance minister renews permit to trade Iraqi dinar in Israel, extended validity by two years

09.03.07

A special permit for trading Iraqi dinars in Israel has recently been renewed. Finance Minister Ronnie Bar-On decided on the move due to the widespread trade of the currency in the country.

Initially, the permit was issued for a period of one year; its renewal has extended its validity by two years, de****e the fact that Iraq is considered an enemy state.

According to estimates by Govev Investments, which has been trading the Iraqi currency over the past year, the currency turnover equals in value to over $20 million. The Iraqi dinar currently stands at $0.0008.

In the United States, the currency turnover has reached nearly $500 million since the Iraqi dinar began being traded there at the end of 2003, following the printing of new bills issued by the al-Maliki government, which was voted into office under the auspices of the American occupation.
The demand for Iraqi currency in Israel has increased since trading began, under the assumption that its value will also increase with the rehabilitation of Iraq and its economy.

Economists see a promising potential in Iraq to become a wealthy, modern country because of its oil and gas reserves, and its vast, fertile agricultural land.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...445047,00.html

Originally Posted by Lunar

‘Iraq oil law can pass by easy majority’

Published: Sunday, 2 September, 2007, 06:18 AM Doha Time

DUBAI: Iraq’s draft oil law should pass by a comfortable majority when parliament meets to discuss it after the end of its summer break in September, Iraqi Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi said.

“The oil law was completed in cabinet... the draft that was approved in cabinet is the one that will be presented to parliament,” he told Reuters.

Am I right in believing that the oil law being passed is the catalyst for a reval?

Originally Posted by investor

Am I right in believing that the oil law being passed is the catalyst for a reval?

Some people believe that as it could be a positive thought.Maybe we might see a modest RV. I think however at that time we will see the currency grow at a faster rate. Instead of a pip here and there. Keep in mind I believe there goal was to reach 1000 dinars to the dollar by the end of the year. I also believe the dinar buzz will be back twards the end of the year becase of this because we will see 4 pips here and 5 pips there ,kinda like what happened last year at the end and so that the goal will be completed.JMO TANK