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Former Iraq oil minister hopeful for Basra

A former Iraqi oil minister says political parties will resolve the sometimes violent power struggle in Basra as British troops pull back to the airport.

"There's a struggle for power everywhere," Ibrahim Bahrul-Uloom said on the sidelines of an Iraqi oil conference.

"Basra's very important, the richest city in the world as far as the reserves are concerned because Basra, only as a province, has 68 billion barrels of oil," he said. "But I think whatever we have seen right now from tension between the political side can be solved within the next few months."

Bahrul-Uloom, oil minister from September 2003 to June 2004 and May 2005 to December 2005, spoke at the Iraq Oil, Gas, Petrochemical and Electricity Summit, organized by the London-based Iraq Development Program.

Basra is the oil capital of Iraq, where most of the country's 115 billion barrels of proven reserves are located and nearly all its 1.7 million barrels per day of exports are sent to market.

It has seen upheaval as regional and national political and militia groups angle for control of the province and the lucrative black market for fuels and oil.

British troops have been the only Multi-National Force presence in Basra, and the country withdrew its remaining 500 troops from the city to the base at the airport.

Political parties in Basra, which also have power in the federal government, dispute control but have left fighting to their militias and rival gangs to be carried on in the streets. There is a fear that a surge in violence could spread far enough to negatively affect the oil sector.

Bahrul-Uloom said calming Basra depends on how politics in both Baghdad and Basra pan out, but he's hopeful.

"Now we'll see signs that things have slightly moved," he said, adding it won't be fixed "within a day or night" but rather will trickle down "from the center."

"A very difficult situation but part of the political change, environment and there are some mistakes that have been done in Iraq. Some of them coming from the previous regime. Some of them committed by us. Some of them committed by Americans. It's a cumulative process."

He said the biggest mistake was appointing key government positions based on party affiliation and not expertise.

Former Iraq oil minister hopeful for Basra : World

Iraqi peace talks held in Finland

HELSINKI, Finland, Sept. 4 Representatives from rival groups in Iraq are striving for middle ground via peace principles used in Northern Ireland and South Africa, it was reported.

Sixteen delegates from Sunni and Shiite tribes reached an agreement after four days of secret talks in Finland, Britain's Guardian reported Tuesday.

The delegates studied lessons learned from successful peacemaking efforts in Northern Ireland and South Africa, said a statement released late Monday from Crisis Management Initiative, the reconciliation group that facilitated the talks.

The talks were convened by the John W. McCormack graduate school of policy studies at the University of Massachusetts in Boston and organized by former Finnish president Martti Ahtisaari, The Guardian reported.

It was not clear how much influence the tribal representatives have in the Iraqi political process, The Guardian reported. Iraqi government officials said they welcome the talks but were not involved in them.

Iraqi peace talks held in Finland : World

Analysis: Bush's support on Iraq creeps up

WASHINGTON, Sept. 4 Public support for President Bush and his policy in Iraq appears to have bottomed out over the summer and was beginning to creep up again heading into September, according to the latest UPI/Zogby poll.

Twenty-seven percent of respondents rated the president's handling of Iraq as either excellent or good, compared with 24 percent in July and 23 percent in June. Seventy-three percent rated it fair or poor in August, compared with 75 percent in July and 76 percent in June.

Most of the movement is accounted for by higher approval ratings among Republicans that have risen by 10 points over the past two months. In August, 58 percent of Republicans rated the president's handling of Iraq as either excellent or good, compared with 48 percent in June and 50 percent in July.

The slight increase in support for Bush on the Iraq issue over the summer is borne out by other polls and the analysis of some political observers.

Pollster.com, which aggregates data from nearly 20 polling organizations, shows Bush's overall approval ratings at 33 percent at the end of August, up 3 percentage points since the low point in June.

"The end of August feels a lot better than the beginning of August when it comes to where we are relative to perceptions of our Iraq policy and what is working," Ed Gillespie, counselor to the president, told the Washington Times last week.

But the evidence also suggests that the public continues to have an overwhelmingly bleak view of the future of Iraq and the impact of the U.S. military operations there, and that the increase in Bush's ratings is more about improving perceptions of him than about changing views of the situation on the ground in Iraq.

For instance, 45 percent of respondents said they thought the U.S. troop surge was working, compared with 49 percent who believed it was not.

Forty-seven percent believe the Iraq war has increased the threat of terrorist attacks in the United States, and 53 percent say it made the threat of attacks worse ********* -- the same as October 2006 when UPI/Zogby last asked the question.

Indeed, by many measures the American public now seems more pessimistic about the outcome in Iraq. More than two-thirds, 69 percent, believe the conflict in Iraq is now a civil war compared with 60 percent last year. Nearly as many, 58 percent, believe that the country will eventually break into separate states, up from 35 percent last year.

John Zogby, president and CEO of Zogby International, told UPI the increase was the result of a more aggressive stance by the administration on Iraq, including a number of recent high-profile speeches in which Bush has defended his strategy and touted his view that the surge is succeeding.

"By going back on the offensive and giving more speeches, the president has been bringing some of his conservative and Republican base back into the fold," he said, "but not much."

"This is reflected in the president's job approval on Iraq as well as his overall approval rating."

De****e the president's improving approval ratings, there is much good news in the poll data for his opponents. Americans are growing increasingly impatient with the war, increasingly critical of the treatment of returning veterans and increasingly skeptical of President Bush's public statements.

Two-thirds of Americans, 67 percent, rate the President's job handling medical and other care for returning veteran as fair or poor -- including 62 percent of those with a family member in the armed services. Only 25 percent rate it excellent or good. Among politically vital independents, 71 percent rate it negatively, only 19 percent positively.

More than two-thirds of respondents, 68 percent, believe President Bush is receiving reliable information from commanders on the ground in Iraq, but only 43 percent believe that he is making reliable statements based on that information.

And more than a third of respondents, 37 percent, say they will only support a U.S. military presence in Iraq at or near current troop levels for another six months or less. Thirty percent say they would support current levels for more than two years.

The UPI/Zogby online poll of 6,711 adults was conducted Aug. 17-20. The margin of error for the sample, which was weighted to be nationally representative, is 1.2 percentage points.

Analysis: Bush's support on Iraq creeps up : World

U.S. says five Britons kidnapped in Iraq still alive

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The U.S. military believes that five Britons, a computer expert and four bodyguards, kidnapped in Baghdad in May are still alive, a top U.S. general said on Tuesday.

"We track every day where we think they might be," said Lieutenant-General Raymond Odierno, the day-to-day commander of U.S. troops in Iraq. "We have reason to think that they are still alive," he said without elaborating.

Gunmen in police uniforms kidnapped the five on May 29 from a Finance Ministry building in the capital where the computer expert had been giving a lecture.

Odierno said rogue elements of fiery anti-American Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army militia were suspected of being behind the abductions.

Sadr last week ordered the suspension of all Mehdi Army operations for up to six months, in what was seen as a move to reestablish his control over the militia, which the U.S. military says has fragmented into splinter groups.

"If you really want to have a ceasefire ... where are these hostages? Tell us about these hostages, we think that's something we should talk to them about," Odierno said.

"We want them to identify these rogue elements."
U.S. troops have launched an intensive search to find the men, and U.S. military commander General David Petraeus said in June there had been several unsuccessful attempts to free them.

U.S. says five Britons kidnapped in Iraq still alive - Yahoo! News UK

Coming months vital for U.S. Iraq strategy-general

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The next three to four months will be vital to determine if violence in Iraq can be cut further and security maintained with fewer American troops, the number two U.S. military commander in Iraq said on Tuesday.

Lieutenant-General Raymond Odierno said last week had seen the lowest number of violent incidents against civilians and security forces across Iraq in the past 15 months.

U.S. President George W. Bush, on a surprise visit to Iraq, raised the prospect of troop cuts after meeting top commanders at a desert air base in western Anbar province on Monday.

"I think the next three to four months is critical," said Odierno, head of day-to-day U.S. military operations in Iraq.

"I think if we can continue to do what we are doing, we'll get to such a level where we think we can do it with less troops," Odierno told a small group of foreign reporters at a U.S. military base near Baghdad airport.

Attacks in August were the lowest in 13 months, he added. Odierno gave no detailed numbers, but he said the attacks included all violent incidents such as bombings and shootings.

In fresh violence on Tuesday, a roadside bomb killed an Iraqi army major and four soldiers in the volatile oil city of Baji north of Baghdad. The Electricity Ministry also said eight workers had been kidnapped and killed in Baghdad on Monday.

During his seven-hour visit Bush met his top commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker. The pair are due to deliver their assessment of his Iraq strategy to the Democrat-controlled Congress on September 10.

Bush said his deployment of 30,000 more troops to Iraq, raising force levels to 160,000, had eased violence in some areas.

PARLIAMENT RECONVENES

"The most important thing is to see how sustainable that is. That will depend on how much progress is made towards national reconciliation," the head of the United Nations mission to Iraq, Ashraf Qazi, told Reuters in an interview before Bush's remarks.

Iraq's leaders are expected to get poor marks in Crocker's report to Congress over a series of political benchmarks Washington believes will help heal the deep sectarian rifts.

Iraq's parliament reconvened on Tuesday after a month-long summer recess. It has not yet passed any of the benchmark laws, including measures that would equitably share oil revenues, ease restrictions on former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party holding public office, and set a date for provincial elections.

Lawmakers complain the government has yet to submit the draft laws to them.

Parliament adjourned after about 90 minutes after lawmakers asked for time to read 10 bills that had been presented for their consideration, lawmaker Hussein al-Falluji told Reuters. The 10 bills did not include any of the benchmark laws.

Bush flew into Iraq's western Anbar province on Monday, choosing the former Sunni Arab insurgent stronghold once considered a lost cause to showcase what he said was one of the main success stories of his new military strategy.

He hailed what he saw as significant progress in quelling violence in Anbar, a former hotbed of the insurgency where Sunni tribal chiefs have joined with U.S. forces against al Qaeda militants.

Some military analysts point out, however, that the rebellion by Sunni Arab tribes against al Qaeda began before the troop build-up, so caution against using the pacification of the province as proof that the Bush's new strategy is working.

Odierno said Bush told his military commanders he wanted to reduce troop levels from a position of strength, not failure.

"What he said was he's going to listen to the commanders on the ground for their assessment," Odierno said.

"If their assessment is they feel that we can reduce the size of the force while maintaining (the) security and stability we have, then he will consider that and make a decision from that. And he'd be willing to listen to a reduction if that's what we recommend. I think that's where he's at."

Bush is under mounting pressure from Democrats and some senior Republicans who want U.S. troops to start leaving after more than four years of war in which 3,700 U.S. troops and tens of thousands of Iraqis have been killed.

Coming months vital for U.S. Iraq strategy-general - Yahoo! News UK

Bush arrives for APEC after surprise Iraq trip

SYDNEY (Reuters) - After a lightning visit to Iraq where he hinted at possible U.S. troop cuts, President George W. Bush arrived in Australia on Tuesday for an Asia-Pacific leaders' meeting amid heavy security and anti-war protests.

Trade and climate change will top the agenda at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, and Bush wants the forum's 21 economies to agree to a strongly worded pledge to reinvigorate the Doha round of world trade talks.

But the subject of Iraq will loom over Bush's visit to Australia, whose troop contribution there is featuring prominently in Prime Minister John Howard's re-election bid. Howard is a staunch Bush ally.

Stopping over at a desert air base in Iraq en route to APEC, Bush hailed progress in the war and raised the prospect of troop cuts after meeting top commanders.

Bush is likely to return to that theme on Wednesday morning at a joint news conference with Howard, whose support for Bush and the war has contributed to his weakness in the polls against opposition leader Kevin Rudd.

Australia has about 1,500 troops in and around Iraq. Rudd has vowed to pull non-essential troops from Iraq if he wins.

Bush will spend much of Wednesday with Howard, taking part in a lunch with troops and a dinner at Kirribilli House, the prime minister's residence on Sydney Harbour.

STRONG OPPOSITION

Bush plans to meet Rudd on Thursday and has made clear he would try to persuade the Labor Party leader to back down on his opposition to the Iraq war. Rudd has said he would not do so.

An opinion poll released on Tuesday, commissioned by the Medical Association for the Prevention of War, found 52 percent of Australians believed Bush was the worst president in U.S. history. Just 32 percent said he was not.

Highlighting the strong opposition to the war in Australia, several protests were planned for the APEC meetings, culminating in a major march by the "Stop Bush Coalition" on Saturday, when the leaders meet at the Sydney Opera House.

On Tuesday, antiwar protesters rallied in front of the city's main railway station hours before Bush arrived amid the nation's biggest ever security operation.

"We are here today on the eve of APEC to tell George Bush that he is not welcome, wherever he and his architects of death may travel," said U.S. Iraq veteran Matt Howard in Sydney.

Authorities have erected a 5-km (3-mile) security fence across the central business district to isolate the leaders in the Opera House and nearby hotels. A total of 5,000 police and troops are patrolling the city centre.
Protesters also plan to demonstrate against global warming, human rights abuses in China and nuclear proliferation.

CANDLE-LIT PROTEST

Members of the Falun Gong spiritual movement staged a candle-lit protest when Chinese President Hu Jintao arrived in the mining state of Western Australia on Monday.

"We'll be following him during his stay in Australia," Lucy Zhao, a Falun Gong campaign organiser, said at a small rally.

Although he has made climate change a major issue at APEC, Howard has said there will be no binding greenhouse gas emission targets. Green groups have said APEC will be a failure if the leaders fail to set such targets.

Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said the APEC hosts were looking for a broad-based approach to the issue.

"We will be pressing for a commitment by all APEC economies to the key elements of a genuinely global response to climate change," Downer said in a speech to foreign correspondents.

But some developing countries in the Pacific Rim grouping are uncomfortable that APEC is moving further away from its original mission of focusing on trade and investment.

The United States is pushing for a strong statement from APEC leaders in support of a world trade pact. A draft of the leaders' statement obtained by Reuters said they would pledge to ensure that the Doha round of global trade talks "enter their final phase this year".

Bush arrives for APEC after surprise Iraq trip - Yahoo! News UK

US says Ramadan could decide Iraq troop cut

BAGHDAD (AFP) - The US military will use the approaching Muslim holy month of Ramadan as an indicator of whether it can reduce US troop numbers in Iraq, a top military commander said on Tuesday.

Lieutenant General Ray Odierno made the remark a day after President George W. Bush in a surprise visit to Iraq hinted that the current level of 155,000 troops could be cut if the improved security situation is maintained in regions such as Anbar province.

The Iraqi government, meanwhile, said Bush's visit represented a stamp of approval for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who is fighting for his political life after making little headway in reconciling the country's bitterly divided communities.

The Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which this year begins around September 12, is often a time when insurgents launch brutal attacks on security forces and civilians.

The lead-up to Ramadan this year has so far seen low levels of violence, said Odierno, the number two commander of US-led forces in Iraq.

"Ramadan is big," Odierno said, adding that what happens in the next 45 days would be important.

"So far in the 30 days before Ramadan violence has been going down," he told a group of foreign reporters at a military base in Baghdad.
In the past, he said, violence had increased before and during Ramadan and then tapered once it was over.

"This year it has been going down (before the start Ramadan). We think this is a trend," he said.

"So all we have to do is carry this out and see its impact as a whole over time," he said, adding "that will be a big indicator" of whether the current security is maintained and in turn help decide on reducing the forces.
Odierno said attacks across the country last week represented the lowest weekly number in the past 15 months while attacks in August were the lowest in 13 months.

"I think if we can continue to do what we are doing, we'll get to such a level where we think we can do it with less troops," he said.

The general said Bush would listen to his commanders on the ground when assessing the potential for a troop drawdown but that he wanted to reduce the numbers from a "position of success and strength and not failure."

"He is not going to reduce forces because people think we are failing, he will do so because he thinks we are having success... that is the message," Odierno said.

On Monday, during a surprise visit to Iraq's western province of Anbar, Bush indicated that the number of American troops could be reduced if the current security situation is maintained.

"If the kind of success we are now seeing (in Anbar) continues, it is possible to maintain the same level of security with fewer American forces," Bush said after meeting his top officials at a desert air base in the province.

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said Bush could decide on the troop levels "fairly shortly."

Surveying Iraq overall, Donald Rumsfeld's successor as defence secretary told ABC News: "Actually, I am more optimistic than I have been at any time since I took this job."

Odierno hoped the level of violence would remain low after fighters of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr appeared to be abiding by his directive to observe a ceasefire for six months.

"The majority of them are paying attention to him," Odierno said, adding Sadr's Baghdad bastion of Sadr City had been "quiet" since the order.

Sadr last Wednesday ordered his Mahdi Army to suspend its activities after allegations they were involved in fierce firefights with police during a Shiite pilgrimage in the shrine city of Karbala which killed 52 people.

Bush's visit was seized upon by the Iraqi government as a sign that Washington wants Maliki to remain at the helm, de****e increasing calls for him to be replaced due to his failure to carry out reconciliation.

"The message is that there is no alternative to this government," government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said in a television interview. "Thinking of alternatives to this government is a figment of the imagination."

Bush's meeting with Maliki on Monday during his brief stopover on his way to Australia at a desert air base in Anbar also showed "US support of the government for its effort to stabilise Iraq," Dabbagh said.

US says Ramadan could decide Iraq troop cut - Yahoo! News UK

Mortar falls on the Green Zone in the arrival of Bush and urge him to Baghdad and the smoke were seen rising from areas containing offices of the Iraqi government and the American and British embassies ??

Eyewitnesses said that the Green Zone in central Baghdad came under mortar attacks and stressed that the Year of smoke rose from the Green Zone, which contains the offices of the Iraqi government and the American and British embassies do not know the volume of material and human losses caused by the attack.

ويتزامن الهجوم على المنطقة الخضراء مع وصول الرئيس الأمريكي جورج بوش الى بغداد في زيارة مفاجئة هي الثانية له للعراق المحتل.يشار إلى أن المنطقة الخضراء تتعرض بين فترة وأخرى الى هجمات بصواريخ الكاتيوشا والهاونات .

The synchronized attack on the Green Zone with the arrival of American President George Bush to Baghdad on a surprise visit is his second to Iraq Golan. It should be noted that the Green Zone between the exposed and the other attacks with Katyusha rockets and mortars.

Iraqirabita.org

Iran denies shelling Kurdish areas in Iraq-report

TEHRAN, Sept 4 (Reuters) - A senior Iranian official denied allegations that Iran has been shelling Kurdish areas in neighbouring Iraq, an Iranian news agency said on Tuesday.

Iraqi officials accused Iran last month of shelling Kurdish villages in Iraq's northeast, a move Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari said threatened ties with Iran.

An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Sunday it would investigate reports of shelling in Kurdish areas in Iraq, in the first official comment from Tehran on the issue.

Iran's ISNA news agency said on Tuesday that Deputy Foreign Minister Mehdi Mostafavi had "denied any bombing of Iraq's northern border by Iran".

Cross-border clashes occasionally occur as Iran and Turkey battle Kurdish separatist rebels operating from bases in Iraq's mountainous northeastern region of Kurdistan.

Baghdad has said hundreds of people were evacuated from villages due to the shelling. Kurdish PJAK guerrillas, who seek autonomy for Kurdish areas in Iran, are believed to shelter in the area.

PJAK, the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan, is an Iranian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a Kurdish separatist movement that is fighting Turkey.

"Some border problems between neighbouring countries naturally and predictably happen," ISNA quoted Mostafavi as saying.

"There are some armed terrorist groups who sometimes make some violations ... We strongly defend our borders and we don't let (anyone) penetrate," he added, remarks that echoed comments made by other officials.

Ties between Iran and Iraq, both mainly Shi'ite Muslim, have improved since 2003 when U.S. forces toppled Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Muslim who waged an eight-year war with Iran in the 1980s.

U.S. officials say Iran is fomenting violence inside Iraq. Nevertheless, U.S. and Iranian officials have held talks on Iraq in Baghdad since May, the most high profile meetings since ties were cut after the 1979 Islamic revolution.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L04589200.htm

Quiet Gates has big role in Bush's Iraq decision

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - As befits an ex-spymaster, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has given away little about his views on Iraq strategy, while being praised for openness.

Both Democrats and Republicans have praised the former CIA director for candor since President George W. Bush picked him to take over the Pentagon from the controversial Donald Rumsfeld last November.

But his frank reputation has come largely from admitting mistakes made on his watch and before. He has avoided saying whether he thinks Bush should keep some 160,000 U.S. troops in Iraq -- a level achieved by the "surge" of forces this year.

Gates, whose mild-mannered public style contrasts with his combative predecessor's, will have a big role in advising Bush on that decision and selling it to the U.S. Congress and public after a slew of reports and testimony on the war this month.

As a low-key newcomer to Bush's Republican administration, Gates does not face the mistrust among Democrats on Capitol Hill reserved for senior officials first involved in planning and prosecuting the unpopular war that began in 2003.

"Bob has reached out, he's reached across the aisle, he's gone up for informal meetings," said former U.S. national security adviser Brent Scowcroft, a close friend of Gates'.

"I think that will pay off big time."

In formulating his advice to Bush, Scowcroft said, Gates would consider not just the war itself but also its effects on the U.S. military, strained by troops' long tours of duty.

Quiet Gates has big role in Bush's Iraq decision | Reuters