Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Better late than never: Iraq's prime minister finds a better way to rule

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki finds himself in an extremely lonely position. Try as he might, he has failed to rein in mounting violence in his country - at least partly because he has also failed to wrest more authority from his American overlords and secure better cooperation from neighbors like Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria. Now his job is in danger, but while the past year has to be judged a failure by any objective standard, there is nothing like a guarantee that anyone else could have done any better.

Maliki has recently adopted a more assertive stance both inside and outside Iraq's borders, something which he should have done long ago. Faced with squabbling coalition partners and the unfortunate tendency of certain American presidential hopefuls to see him as a whipping boy in the service of their own ambitions, he has had no choice but to go on the offensive. He has begun to obtain better cooperation from uneasy political allies and has put a sharply more independent stamp on Iraq's still-evolving foreign policy, especially vis-a-vis Iran.

It remains to be seen whether these and other efforts are too little, too late, but Maliki now possesses something truly unique among Iraqi politicians: considerable experience captaining the ship of state through one of the most turbulent periods of the country's history - and this while having constantly to cope with the ever-present impact of an American political season fueled by the arrogance and incompetence of US President George W. Bush and his administration.

Bush made a surprise visit to Iraq on Monday, but neither he nor visitors from any other foreign capital can make up for weak leadership in Baghdad. Washington has expected too much of its Iraqi partners in many respects, but it has also tied their hands on many issues over which they should have been turned loose. Maliki needs more of this brand of American "support" like he needs a proverbial hole in the head.

Instead, Iraq's prime minister has to live up to his title by staying on the course he has recently followed. He can only improve his authority and legitimacy if his actions are manifestly aimed at dealing with realities on the ground in Iraq and the wider Middle East, not the ebbs and flows of America's electoral comedies or the shortsighted tribalism that inspires some of his allies and their sponsors.

Simply put, Maliki can only survive if he governs in the interests of his own people and keeps in mind the fact that the priorities of his foreign counterparts will frequently clash with own. Understanding this attitude is part and parcel of heading a government anywhere, but the neighborhood of which Iraq is part is especially unforgiving: Anyone who forgets that is flirting with perils too numerous to count.

The Daily Star - Editorial - Better late than never: Iraq's prime minister finds a better way to rule

Opinion Piece

The State of Iraq: An Update

IN advance of the much-anticipated Congressional testimony next week of Ryan Crocker, the ambassador to Iraq, and Gen. David Petraeus, the top United States military commander, many have agreed on what appear to be two crucial realities in Iraq: there is military momentum for combined American-Iraqi forces and there is political paralysis in Baghdad. While the recent Government Accountability Office report on the 18 benchmarks set out by Congress in May gave a very pessimistic view, our data above, culled from official Iraqi and American sources and press reports, support a more mixed picture.

Unfortunately, at the moment the political paralysis seems to be a more powerful force than the military momentum, and progress in security is unsustainable without sectarian compromise among Iraq’s Kurds, Sunni Arabs and Shiites. The country remains very violent, and the economy rather stagnant.

Nonetheless, the military momentum appears real, de****e the tragic multiple truck bombings in Ninevah Province on Aug. 14 that made that month the deadliest since winter. Overall, civilian fatality rates are down perhaps one third since late 2006, though they remain quite high. There are also signs that roughly six of Iraq’s 18 provinces are making significant economic and security gains, up from three a year ago. The story in Sunni-dominated Anbar Province is by now well known: attacks in the city of Ramadi are down 90 percent, and the economy is recovering. But there is progress in several regions with more complex sectarian mixes as well.

Given the continuing violence, and the absence of political progress, Iraq is not now on a trajectory toward sustainable stability — and America is not yet on a clear path to an exit strategy. With sectarian tensions so high, and hatreds so freshly stoked, Iraq’s own dynamics would probably lead to an accelerating civil war if left unchecked.

The New York Times > Log In

Iraq falls short of goals amidst high violence

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Iraqi government has failed to take the political and military steps needed to cut sectarian violence, a U.S. congressional report said on Tuesday and a U.S. general said the next months were critical for creating security in the country.

The U.S. Government Accountability Office said Iraq had failed to meet 11 of 18 political and military benchmarks set by the U.S. Congress in May, including elimination of militia control of local security.

"Violence remains high, the number of Iraqi security forces capable of conducting independent operations has declined, and militias are not disarmed," the GAO, the investigating arm of Congress, said.

De****e the deployment of 30,000 extra U.S. troops to Iraq, raising force levels to 160,000, it said the number of attacks on civilians remained unchanged from February to July 2007.

In Baghdad, the head of day-to-day U.S. military operations said the next three to four months would be vital to determine if violence could be cut further and security maintained with fewer American troops.

Lieutenant-General Raymond Odierno, the number two U.S. military commander in Iraq, said last week had seen the lowest number of violent incidents against civilians and security forces across Iraq in the past 15 months.

"I think if we can continue to do what we are doing, we'll get to such a level where we think we can do it with less troops," Odierno told a small group of foreign reporters at a U.S. military base near Baghdad airport.
He said attacks in August were the lowest in 13 months. Odierno gave no detailed numbers, but he said the attacks included all violent incidents such as bombings and shootings.

In fresh violence on Tuesday, a roadside bomb killed an Iraqi army major and four soldiers in the volatile oil city of Baji north of Baghdad. The Electricity Ministry also said eight workers had been kidnapped and killed in Baghdad on Monday.

VIOLENCE REMAINS HIGH

The GAO report was one of three awaited by the Democratic-led Congress as it heads for a showdown this month with Bush over his Iraq strategy.
He is under mounting pressure from Democrats and some senior Republicans who want U.S. troops to start leaving after more than four years of war in which 3,700 U.S. troops and tens of thousands of Iraqis have been killed.

President George W. Bush flew into Iraq's western Anbar province on Monday to meet with top commanders, where he pointed to security successes in the region and raised the prospect of drawing down U.S. troops. But he said this would be done if gains continue, and only from a position of strength.

The White House is to submit an assessment of the situation in Iraq by September 15, after testimony to Congress next week by U.S. Iraq commander David Petraeus and the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker.

In the House of Representatives, it appeared Republican unity backing Bush on Iraq was fracturing as six Republicans who have opposed past U.S. troop pullout proposals joined five Democrats in writing to House leaders and calling for a bipartisan strategy to bring U.S. troops home.

"While we are hopeful that their (Petraeus' and Crocker's) report will show progress, we should not wait any longer to come together in support of a responsible post-surge strategy to safely bring our troops home to their families," said the letter.

In the Senate, one Republican leader talked of a long-term commitment to the region.

"I would like to see us with at least some level of bipartisan agreement that we need a long-term deployment somewhere in the Middle East, in the future, for two reasons: Al Qaeda and Iran," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, told reporters.

But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said on the Senate floor that finding a "path out of Iraq" would be top priority in the Senate this fall.

Iraq's parliament briefly reconvened on Tuesday after a month-long summer recess. It has not yet passed any of the benchmark laws, including measures that would equitably share oil revenues, ease restrictions on former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party holding public office, and set a date for provincial elections.

Lawmakers complain the government has yet to submit the draft laws to them.

Parliament adjourned after about 90 minutes after lawmakers asked for time to read 10 bills that had been presented for their consideration, lawmaker Hussein al-Falluji told Reuters. The 10 bills did not include any of the benchmark laws.

Iraq falls short of goals amidst high violence - Yahoo! News UK

Lawsuit demands US reveal civilian deaths in Iraq, Afghanistan

WASHINGTON (AFP) - A US civil rights group filed a lawsuit Tuesday demanding the American military release documents about civilians killed by US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, accusing the government of trying to hide the human cost of war.

The American Civil Liberties Union's legal move came after a request for documents related to civilian deaths under the country's Freedom of Information laws was rebuffed by the US Navy, the Air Force and Marines. The US Army complied with the ACLU's year-old request.

The group has already released thousands of documents obtained from the army showing compensation claims from families whose loved ones were killed by stray bullets or in traffic accidents in Iraq and Afghanistan.

On Tuesday, the ACLU released thousands of additional documents revealing court martial proceedings and military investigations in cases in which US soldiers were accused -- and often acquitted -- of killing civilians intentionally or through negligence.

In its suit filed in federal court in Washington, the ACLU -- citing the public's legal right to information held by the government -- demands the Pentagon release "all records relating to the killing of civilians by US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan since January 1, 2005."

The ACLU accused President George W. Bush's administration of suppressing information about military and civilian casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"There can be no more important decision in a democracy than whether to go to war, yet this administration has gone to unprecedented lengths to control the information that the American people need to make informed judgments," said Ben Wizner, a lawyer with the ACLU.

The government's refusal to meet ACLU's freedom of information request "unlawfully obstructs the public's right to know the true costs of our nation's wars," Wizner said.

Few of the military investigations or courts martial called for disciplinary action as a result of civilian deaths, according to the documents cited by the ACLU.

In one case, US military authorities called for a US driver to be charged with negligent homicide and reckless endangerment after a six-month-old infant was killed in a traffic accident.

In the probe of a soldier who shot an Iraqi man in the head at close range, an army investigating officer expressed concern that soldiers questioned in the case seemed to lack knowledge or understanding of the rules governing the treatment of enemy prisoners, according to documents cited by the ACLU.

Lawsuit demands US reveal civilian deaths in Iraq, Afghanistan - Yahoo! News UK

GAO: Iraq Hasn't Met 11 of 18 Benchmarks

Independent Study on Iraq Finds Baghdad Fails in Meeting Most of Its Goals
Baghdad has not met 11 of its 18 political and security goals, according to a new independent report on Iraq that challenges President Bush's assessment on the war.

The study, conducted by the Government Accountability Office, was slightly more upbeat than initially planned. After receiving substantial resistance from the White House, the GAO determined that four benchmarks instead of two had been partially met.

But GAO stuck with its original contention that only three goals out of the 18 had been achieved. The goals met include establishing joint security stations in Baghdad, ensuring minority rights in the Iraqi legislature and creating support committees for the Baghdad security plan.

"Overall key legislation has not been passed, violence remains high, and it is unclear whether the Iraqi government will spend $10 billion in reconstruction funds," said U.S. Comptroller David Walker in prepared remarks for a Senate hearing on Tuesday.

An advance copy of the 100-page report and Walker's testimony was obtained by The Associated Press.

GAO's findings paint a bleaker view of progress in Iraq than offered by Bush in July and comes at a critical time in the Iraq debate. So far, Republicans have stuck by Bush and staved off Democratic legislation ordering troops home. But many, who have grown uneasy about the unpopularity of the war, say they want to see substantial improvement in Iraq by September.

Next week the top military commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, and U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, are scheduled to brief Congress.

"While the Baghdad security plan was intended to reduce sectarian violence, measuring such violence may be difficult since the perpetrator's intent is not clearly known," GAO states in its report. "Other measures of violence, such as the number of enemy-initiated attacks, show that violence has remained high through July 2007."

Republican leaders on Tuesday showed no signs of wavering in their support for Bush.

"The GAO report really amounts to asking someone to kick an 80-yard field goal and criticizing them when they came up 20 or 25 yards short," said House GOP leader John Boehner, R-Ohio.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters he would like to ensure a long-term U.S. presence in the Middle East to fight al-Qaida and deter aggression from Iran.

"And I hope that this reaction to Iraq and the highly politicized nature of dealing with Iraq this year doesn't end up in a situation where we just bring all the troops back home and thereby expose us, once again, to the kind of attacks we've had here in the homeland or on American facilities," said McConnell, R-Ky.

Democrats said the GAO report showed that Bush's decision to send more troops to Iraq was failing because Baghdad was not making the political progress needed to tamp down sectarian violence.

"No matter what spin we may hear in the coming days, this independent assessment is a failing grade for a policy that simply isn't working," said Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.

The report does not make any substantial policy recommendations, but says future administration reports "would be more useful to the Congress" if they provided more detailed information.

Earlier this year, Bush sent 30,000 extra troops to Iraq to enhance security in Baghdad and Anbar province. In a congressionally mandated progress report released by the White House in July, Bush judged that Baghdad had made satisfactory progress in eight of the 18 benchmarks. In five of those eight areas, GAO determined that Iraq had either failed or made only partial progress.

The disparity is largely due to the stricter standard applied by GAO in preparing the report. GAO used a "thumbs up or thumbs down" approach in grading Baghdad, whereas Bush's assessment looked at whether Iraq was achieving progress. For example, Bush said Iraqi politicians had made satisfactory progress in reviewing its constitution, whereas GAO ruled they had failed because the process was not complete.

The State Department and Defense Department reviewed the report before its release. According to officials interviewed last week, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the study had not been released, the administration disputed GAO's conclusion that Iraq has failed to provide three trained and ready Iraqi brigades to support Baghdad operations or to ensure that the security plan will not provide a safe haven for outlaws.

In the final report released Tuesday, GAO marked those two benchmarks as "partially met" and alludes to pushback it received from the Pentagon.

For example, GAO said it found that de****e increased military operations in Baghdad, "temporary safe havens still exist due to strong sectarian loyalties and militia infiltration of security forces." The Defense Department countered that the recent troop buildup had significantly reduced the number of safe havens inside Baghdad and in al-Anbar and Diyala provinces.

Regarding the deployment of the three Iraqi brigades, GAO found that of the 19 Iraqi units supporting Baghdad operations only 5 had performed well. The remaining units experienced problems with lack of personnel or equipment.

GAO: Iraq Hasn't Met 11 of 18 Goals

Ramadan will tell the tale in Iraq - senior US general

The US military will use the approaching Islamic holy month of Ramadan as an indicator of whether it can reduce US troop numbers in Iraq, a top military commander said on Tuesday.

Lieutenant General Ray Odierno made the remark a day after President George W. Bush, in a surprise visit to Iraq, hinted that the current level of 155,000 troops could be cut if the improved security situation is maintained in regions such as Anbar Province.

The Iraqi government, meanwhile, said Bush's visit represented a stamp of approval for Premier Nuri al-Maliki, who is fighting for his political life after making little headway in reconciling the country's communities.

The Islamic fasting month of Ramadan, which this year begins around September 12, is often a time when insurgents launch brutal attacks on security forces and civilians.

The lead-up to Ramadan this year has so far seen low levels of violence, said Odierno, the number two commander of US-led forces in Iraq.

"Ramadan is big," the general said, adding that what happens in the next 45 days would be important.

"So far in the 30 days before Ramadan violence has been going down," he told a group of foreign reporters at a military base in Baghdad. In the past, he said, violence had increased before and during Ramadan and then tapered once it was over.

"This year it has been going down [before the start Ramadan]. We think this is a trend," he said.

"So all we have to do is carry this out and see its impact as a whole over time," he said, adding: "That will be a big in-dicator" of whether the current security is maintained and help decide on reducing the forces.

He said that attacks across the country last week represented the lowest weekly number in the past 15 months while attacks in August were the lowest in 13 months.

"I think if we can continue to do what we are doing, we'll get to such a level where we think we can do it with less troops," Odierno said.
Also on Tuesday, Iraq's Parliament reconvened after a month-long summer break but took up none of the key benchmark legislation demanded by the US.

Parliament in July shrugged off calls from Maliki to cancel, or shorten, the summer pause saying after putting the break off for a month, there was no point waiting any longer for the premier to deliver the legislation.

While Parliament was in recess, Maliki attempted to break the impasse with major Shiite, Sunni Arab and Kurdish leaders in a high-level meeting just over a week ago. It brought Maliki together fellow Shiite Vice President Adil Abdel-Mehdi, Sunni Arab Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi, the head of the northern autonomous Kurdish region Massoud Barzani and President Jalal Talabani, who is also a Kurd.

On Monday, Maliki said the de-Baathification draft law - one of the US's 18 benchmarks - was ready and would be soon be taken to Parliament.
"I believe that the Parliament ... will approve it," he said.

The session opened with 158 members of 275 present, enough to form a quorum, but Deputy Parliament Speaker Khaled al-Attiyah told the AP that they have not yet received the de-Baathification draft law for discussion. He added that he expects it will be received soon.

Still, Attiyah said he did not expect to Parliament to begin discussing another key draft law, on oil revenue sharing, before mid-September. The oil law has been in the hands of a constitutional committee for months and has not emerged in Parliament for a vote.

Elsewhere Tuesday, the US military said de****e hard-line Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's declaration last week of a "freeze" on his Mehdi Army militia activities, there have been 11 attacks in Baghdad since last Thursday.
"Among the 11 attacks attributed to criminal militia members are 107mm rocket attacks impacting coalition outposts and residential Baghdad neighborhoods, small arms attacks, the use of the deadly explosively formed projectiles and one complex attack requiring detailed coordination and planning," the military said in a statement. - Agencies

The Daily Star - Politics - Ramadan will tell the tale in Iraq - senior US general

GOI helps VBIED survivors rebuild
MOSUL, Iraq – Government of Iraq officials recently announced several completed projects in the villages of Khahtaniya, Al-Jazeera, and Qubuc. These projects were designed to assist the residents of these areas in rebuilding efforts following catastrophic vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attacks during August.

The completed projects include:


· A new fresh water well near the Market Area in Khahtaniya
· The completion of rubble removal in all three villages, as well as area preparation for new construction. Rubble is currently being separated into useable and non-usable materials in an effort to aid reconstruction.
· The delivery of two new water trucks to the city of Bi’aj. The water trucks are owned by the mayor and water director for use in their districts.
· A new soccer field in Qubuc that will allow the children to play while rubble removal and other projects are being completed in the area.
· Municipal workers restored electricity and repaired power lines that were damaged by the blast in Khahtaniya and Al Jazeera. Electricity was restored within two days in Qubuc by the Tal’Afar municipal workers.


The village of Qubuc was attacked Aug. 6, killing over 25 Iraqis and injuring over 50 more. Khahtaniya and Al Jazeera were similarly struck Aug. 14, killing over 300 Iraqis and injured more than 700.

The GOI also announced that 320 condolence payments of 2,000,000 Iraqi Dinar each have been completed for the families of those killed in the blasts. Payments of 1,000,000 Iraqi Dinar have been authorized for 225 affected with serious injuries from the blasts and are scheduled to start immediately. (That seems a pretty paltry amount to me)

One of the future projects includes 3rd Iraqi Army Division engineers, who will construct a berm around Khahtaniya. Coalition forces agreed to assist with the construction of a similar berm around the neighboring villages of Al Jazeera and Adaneya.

There are also several projects specifically in Qubuc that are awaiting bids by qualified contractors. These include:


· School and Agricultural office refurbishing in Qubuc
· Roof repair in the Agriculturally-owned Grain Building
· Construction of a new fresh water well


“The Government of Iraq is definitely showing a commitment to the Iraqi people in the aftermath of the horrific VBIED attacks that occurred in Nineveh province during August,” said Sgt. 1st Class Diego Sanchez, civil affairs liaison, 4th Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division. “We are working together with the Iraqi Security Forces to provide relief for everyone who has been affected by these terrorist acts.”

http://www.blackanthem.com/News/Alli...uild9861.shtml

Originally Posted by bob1940

Dinar tank, what are your Predictions as far as making trades with DINAR. when do you propose it will go on the market? between Me, and my son We have purchased a small amount of 1,500,000 Dinar. I keep seeing all of the proposed contracts with different oil companys being posted here . sure wish we could get some great news about the RV. BOB1940.

I Think it could possibly go on the market soon after the ISX goes electronic,Maybe within 6 months which by then they can get in on the exotic currency market. There is a buzz about this currency as alot of people have it as well as big banks like chase, Bank of america, and Compass. The HCL plays as one of the key factors because its gonna be the main source of there economy. Its gonna get interesting again at the end of this month is my prediction with the oil summit....unless it got pushed back. So look for the completion of atleast 1000:1 by the years end. They were right on with last years goal set by the IMF and met the goal, Howerver this is the goal set by the minister of finance different but yet powerful words. Bill made a vaild point about the dollar loosing ..but thats not the reason ..maybe a little to do with it. Thats my opinion. Tank

Iraq economy heading for 6 pct growth: US

(AFP)
5 September 2007

BAGHDAD - The economy of Iraq is doing better than expected and is headed for growth of over six percent this year, a senior US official said on Wednesday.

‘The improvement on the security side is having an impact on the economy,’ Charles Ries, the US coordinator for economic transition in Iraq, told journalists in Baghdad, referring to claims by the US military that its troop ‘surge’ is helping push back sectarian violence.

‘It is hard to measure it precisely, and there is no doubt that the Iraqi economy is burdened by a number of challenges and is performing under potential,’ said Ries, former US ambassador to Greece who took up his new post in July.

‘Nonetheless, real GDP growth this year will be over six percent and if you take out the oil sector, it will be over seven percent.’

According to the International Monetary Fund, real growth in Iraq’s gross domestic product was 3.7 percent in 2005, while it is estimated to be 6.2 percent in 2006 and projected at 6.3 percent this year.

Ries said agriculture in the fertile country, with its flat lands, plentiful water and vast amounts of sunshine, accounted for around 20 percent of the economy.

However, the industrial sector was largely stagnant and the oil sector greatly underperforming, he added.

Once legislation related to the sharing out of the country’s oil revenues is passed by parliament -- possibly later this month -- oil production would increase, Ries said.

According to an IMF report last month after its twice-yearly Article IV Consultation with Iraq, crude oil production has remained static since 2004 at about two million barrels per day.

The legislation -- seen by the US as a key benchmark to measure political reconciliation in Iraq -- will also open up the hydrocarbon sector to foreign investors which ought to stimulate the economy even further, said Ries.

He added that if the legislation is adopted, it would allow world energy companies to help find oil and gas resources that have not been uncovered by the Iraqis.

Iraq has the third-largest proven oil reserves in the world, with much of the country still unexplored.

What has been discovered is usually close to the surface and is sweet crude, enabling it to be pumped and refined cheaper than in other countries.

‘We think that the future economy of the country is quite bright as oil production increases and as the private sector responds to new opportunities,’ said Ries.

He acknowleged that foreign assistance to the Iraqi government, including 30 billion dollars from the United States since 2003, was boosting GDP figures.

‘Foreign assistance from the the United States and other countries do play an important stimulatory role in the economy,’ said Ries, adding however that trying to measure the extent of this would be a ‘guestimate.’

Khaleej Times Online - Iraq economy heading for 6 pct growth: US

Iraq’s top Shia cleric backs cabinet: premier

(DPA)
5 September 2007

BAGHDAD Iraq’s top Shia cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani renewed his support for the country’s government Wednesday, Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki said.


Al Maliki told journalists after talks with Al Sistani in the southern city of Najaf that his government’s moves to achieve national unity and security were supported by the cleric.

Al Maliki said he discussed with Al Sistani a possible cabinet reshuffle that would include technocrats.

Iraq’s coalition government has recently faced a crisis after ministers from the Shia Al Sadr bloc and the Sunni Iraqi Accord Front pulled out. They later returned after lengthy negotiations with the United Iraqi Alliance, the main Shia bloc making up the cabinet.

Al Maliki said holy cities such as Najaf and Karbala should become ‘demilitarized’ areas, implying the disarmament of local militias, and responsibility for security given solely to the army.

Al Maliki denied his talks with Al Sistani were linked to US president’s visit to Baghdad two days ago.

Khaleej Times Online - Iraq’s top Shia cleric backs cabinet: premier