Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 16/08/07 - 03/11/07

Down the rathole of Iraq

OK, THROW ANOTHER $50 billion down the rat hole that is the Iraq occupation. It's only money, if you ignore the lives being destroyed. That's what the White House is asking for, in addition to the $147 billion in supplementary funds already requested. Congress will grant the funding after Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker follow President Bush's photo-op in Iraq's Anbar province with a dog-and-pony show of their own. Meanwhile, the Democrats are totally cynical about this continuing waste of taxpayer dollars and of American and Iraqi lives, and wanting Bush to hang himself with his own rope, they will deny him nothing.

In the effort to retaliate against terrorists who hijacked planes six years ago with an arsenal of $3 knives, this year's overall defense budget has been pushed to $657 billion. We are now spending $3 billion a week in Iraq alone, occupying a country that had nothing to do with the tragedy that sparked this orgy of militarism. The waste is so enormous and irrelevant to our national security that a rational person might embrace the libertarian creed, if only for the sake of sanity. Clearly, the federal government no longer cares much about providing for health, education, hurricane reconstruction or even bridge safety, as the military budget now dwarfs all other discretionary spending, de****e the lack of a sophisticated enemy in sight.

Numbers are boring, and the media acts as if there is no difference between a million and a billion dollars thrown at the military - let alone the trillion-dollar projected cost of the Iraq war. That last figure is well documented in a solid study out of Harvard co-authored by Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz but ignored by the mass media. So too a recent authoritative report from the non-partisan Government Accountability Office that found, de****e the $44.5 billion in U.S. taxpayer dollars already poured into reconstruction, little detectable progress has been made in Iraq's crucial oil and electricity systems.

Remember when Paul Wolfowitz, then the Pentagon's resident neo-con genius, assured Congress that Iraqi oil money would easily bear the entire cost of America's Iraqi adventure? Now the GAO tells us that, even after spending an additional $57 billion on the Iraqi oil and electricity infrastructure and assuming peace is restored, Iraq would still not produce enough oil and electricity to meet local demand until the year 2015.

Aside from corruption and the lack of security, the biggest problem in supplying Iraq with electricity is that the national electrical grid has broken down, and different factions, divided largely along ethnic and religious lines, are grabbing what electricity they can. This kind of anarchy is emblematic of the new, emerging Iraq, in which the central government has declining sway over the nation's decisions.

That latter point was underscored this week by Bush's happy-faced visit to a highly fortified and isolated American outpost in Anbar province. After posing gamely with the troops at the Al-Asad base, Bush celebrated the return of Sunni areas to the control of U.S.-armed militias - composed largely of former insurgents who have, at least temporarily, decided that their Shiite rivals, who are in control of the central government, are a more pressing enemy than the American occupiers. Speaking of one such group of Sunnis trained by the Americans and dubbed the "Volunteers" by their instructors, a U.S. soldier told the Washington Post, "I think there is some risk of them being Volunteers by day and terrorists by night."

That is exactly what has occurred on the Shiite side, where anti-U.S. religious groups have completely infiltrated the American-trained Iraqi military and police forces. In Iraq's Shiite-controlled south, the domination of the military and police by the fiercely anti-American Madhi Army and other militias was ensured by the final withdrawal of British troops from Basra, Iraq's second largest city and vital center of oil production, on the same day that Bush visited Iraq. Instead of the liberated, united and democratic Iraq promised by this invasion, we are left with a nation ruled by religious fiefdoms sustained now and far into the future by U.S. taxpayers.

The French and the Germans, hoary veterans of various failed European adventures in imperialism, warned us about precisely this outcome. While U.S. troops spill blood to guard broken oil pipelines, the Chinese and others go merrily about the world buying up black gold on the open market. But hey, don't worry about your tax dollars and the waste of lives - eat some freedom fries and learn, like our president, to keep smiling.

Down the rathole of Iraq

Iraqi Army withdraws from Fallujah

On an obviously momentous day that perfectly enshrines the hard work of the Fightin' 6th, our three regimental predecessors in the region, as well as the work of our Iraqi compatriots, the Iraqi Army has ceded their counterinsurgency operations in Fallujah to the Iraqi Police. A city that only 3 years ago was the scene of arguably the most ferocious house-to-house fighting operation of the war is now in the hands of the 'Sons of Fallujah.'

Clearly, this is something to be excited and spread the word about. Click on the "Share" link under the headline of this story and spread the word to Digg by "digging" the story.

Pfc. Brian Jones was there to watch the last battalion of the last brigade inside the city limits pack up their humvees and roll out.

The last battalion of Iraqi soldiers with 2nd Brigade, 1st Iraqi Army Division, withdrew from the Anbar Province city of Fallujah, Sept. 1, leaving the city’s security and stability in the hands of the local police and government.

Brig. Gen. Ali al-Hashemi, the brigade’s commander, said the time had come when Iraqi Police alone could handle law enforcement in the city.
“I am very confident in the IPs keeping the city safe. Besides, it is their job to work to keep the city safe,” al-Hashemi said through an interpreter. “It’s not the IA’s job. The army should not be inside the city. The police should be in the city.”

Lt. Col. Daniel T. Thoele, the operations advisor for 2nd Brigade Military Transition Team with Regimental Combat Team 6, spoke well of the departing unit.

“The 2nd Brigade has been phenomenal,” said Thoele. “I think today is a historical event because of not only the success of the IA, but the IA working closely with the Iraqi police.”

Initially the IA provided security over the city to give the fledgling police force time and breathing space to develop. Now with a strong force, the locals trust the IPs and are cooperating with counterinsurgent activities.

“(Since) Col. Faisal got here in November, there has been expediential growth with the IPs, both in their numbers and also in their development,” Thoele said. “The IPs are still having equipment and manning problems, but they are working through it.”

Under al-Hashemi’s guidance, his soldiers routinely respond with, “I am Iraqi,” whenever asked by civilians whether they are Shiite or Sunni, Thoele said.

“I am very confident and very happy about everything they did in the city of Fallujah, because I see the result and the city is a lot safer and a lot of progress was made here,” al-Hashemi said about his soldiers’ efforts. “We were very successful because all the forces were working together. The IA, IPs and the Marines all worked together as one team. There were three commanders, IA commander, IP commander and a Marine commander. We had a very good understanding of working with each.”

The brigade has relocated to northern regions of Anbar to replace Marine units, take over combat outposts and operate patrol bases. They will now refocus outside of the city to protect the highways and countryside to prevent insurgents access to population centers like Fallujah.

The 2nd Brigade Headquarters will remain here at the Iraqi Training Center for logistical and the training purposes.

“I think it’s important to understand the IA and IPs have a great relationship and it doesn’t matter whether they’re Shiite, Sunni or anything,” Thoele said. “I don’t see the sectarian strike here that you hear about in Baghdad, because here it doesn’t matter. It’s all Iraqis working together.”

Iraqi Army withdraws from Fallujah -

This is a long article on the 'Oil Law'. I have just taken the last few paragraphs - which maybe just talk and hot air. or not.


Missteps and Mistrust Mark the Push for Legislation

Over the summer, the State Shura Council, a group of legal scholars, revised the legislation for proper language and formatting, but the Kurds considered it a gutting of the law. "They took out 15,000 words from the original document, 100 paragraphs," Hawrami said.

The negotiating committee decided there needed to be a draft maintaining the original content but in the proper format, and this is what the cabinet approved again on July 3, although the document didn't actually exist yet, according to Hawrami. By mid-summer, nothing was settled.

Eventually, a strong backlash against any federal oil law emerged. The parliament in the Kurdish north, frustrated with the delays, passed a regional oil law Aug. 6.

Some now argue that Iraq needs years to reach production levels that would dent its current reserves, so there is no need to hurry for new exploration, sign major contracts with foreign companies or push through an oil law.

"What's the rush?" said Chalabi, the former oil minister. "Everybody and his brother from the U.S. administration has been talking about the oil law -- what the hell is this oil law? The priority should be restoring a normal life to the citizens."

"I will resign if that law is passed" by parliament, said Baban, the planning minister whose Sunni bloc withdrew from the cabinet. "It gives more power to the regions to sign their own contracts, and I think this threatens the unity of the country."

washingtonpost.com

Democrats vow to force change in war strategy
Lawmakers maneuver to frame debate on Iraq

WASHINGTON — As Congress reopened for business on Tuesday, the Democratic leadership promised to force a change in President Bush's war strategy and lawmakers maneuvered to frame the debate over Iraq ahead of reports next week by Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker.

"Many of my Republican friends have long held September as the month for the policy change in Iraq," Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic majority leader, said in his opening speech on the Senate floor. "It's September."

"The calendar hasn't changed," he said. "It's time to make a decision. We can't continue the way we are."

Reid's speech, which included some sharp criticism of Bush, reflected an aggressive effort by the Democrats to shape the discourse over the war before testimony next week by Petraeus and Crocker.

Aides said Reid was trying to signal a new willingness to compromise across party lines when he called on Republicans to join in finding a way "to responsibly end this war."

In a hearing In the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, war critics seized on a new report by the Government Accountability Office showing virtually no political progress by the Iraqi government as the latest evidence that the president's military strategy is failing.

The report on Iraq that was presented there, while scarcely a glowing assessment, was noticeably rosier than a draft version that began to circulate last week, which found that Iraq had fallen short on 13 of the 18 standards for progress, partly meeting two. The Pentagon disputed that finding, saying it was too cut-and-dried a depiction of a fluid and complex situation.

The final version, released Tuesday, found that three of 18 benchmarks had been met and four others had been partly met.

Elsewhere on Capitol Hill, there were signs that lawmakers were growing frustrated with partisanship and increasingly eager for a change of direction in Iraq that would signal progress to American voters.

Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican minority leader, who urged in his opening speech on Tuesday that Congress wait for Petraeus and "listen to what he says without prejudice," also sounded a note of bipartisanship. At a separate news conference he said that that he envisioned a long-term U.S. military presence in the Middle East but perhaps not in Iraq.

"I would like to see us with at least some level of bipartisan agreement that we need a long-term deployment somewhere in the Middle East in the future for two reasons: al-Qaida and Iran," he said.

And in a letter to the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and the minority leader, John A. Boehner, 11 lawmakers — six Republicans and five Democrats — urged cooperation in developing a new war strategy.

Democrats vow to force change in war strategy | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

Analysis: Oil, security for Iraq investors

Security in Iraq is a major holdup to investment there, sometimes second only to the lack of a law governing Iraq's vast oil and gas reserves.

Various security plans, by Iraqi and U.S. forces, are intended to break the cycle of violence, but little of the ambitions for Iraq's future will take hold until its citizens face fewer day-to-day threats to their lives.

Inter- and intra-sectarian violence as well as anti-occupation attacks and the multi-national force's response keep Iraq's morgues full, people afraid and development of vital services at bay. Iraqis face both poverty and unemployment estimated at more than 50 percent, and a simultaneous crisis lacking security, fuels, electricity, healthcare, clean water and education, though these vary by region.

The energy sector, which is the bloodline for Iraq's economy, is a frequent target.

Many top executives at an Iraq energy conference this week alternately ranked the security situation and the oil law as the top reasons they aren't rushing into the country to invest. Most spoke off the record to UPI, but shared similar concerns.

"What is the main issue to me, as long as security problem is there, it is very difficult to get service companies to Iraq," said Orhan Duran, general manager of Genel Enerji, a Turkish firm. Genel and Canada's Addax Petroleum formed the Taq Taq Operating Co. to operate a field in the Iraqi Kurdish region, which is relatively safe and semi-autonomous from Baghdad.

Both will be needed for the benefit of investors and Iraqis: the oil law to outline investment guidelines for foreign and private firms; security to ensure a lower risk premium in contracts.

"Of course, the cost Â… is higher than normal countries, because of the security," Duran said, estimating Iraq's deals to be two to three times higher than if it were more stable.

"We are afraid of the present status," said a top official of a major Japanese firm at the Iraq Oil, Gas, Petrochemical and Electricity Summit organized by the London-based Iraq Development Program. "After improvement of security, we can move."

There's no consensus in government on what is more of a roadblock to entering Iraq's market.

"No doubt, the security situation is a fundamental part of the development process, whether the oil sector or the other sectors," said Ibrahim Bahrul-Uloom, a former oil minister who held the post twice since 2003. "We think politics and economic and security are connected together, even thought we made progress in the political process."

The oil law is stuck between various factions who either want a heavy central control or strong regional and governorate rights and either extremely limited foreign investment or the unbridled free market.

It's now up to Parliament to pass the law, though it has yet to receive a finished draft, but leaders of various sides in the highest parts of government agreed to move the law forward. Parliament resumed session Tuesday after an August recess. It didn't take up the law.

"We feel the security for the oil industry is not a crucial issue. The legislation framework is the most important," said Ali al-Dabbagh, top spokesman for the government. Though he said the energy infrastructure could be protected, by stepped up efforts from both Iraq and multi-national forces, he warned against U.S. troop reductions to fight the "devil enemies."

A sizeable amount of Iraq's violence is between Sunnis and Shiites, and among rival Shiite factions. Others, both Iraqi and non-Iraqi, are fighting against the U.S. occupation or the Iraqi government by targeting high-value energy infrastructure.

Attacks on Iraq's oil and electricity sector from April 2003 through the third week of August have been rampant and ongoing, according to an expert in threats and vulnerability to the energy sector ********* who spoke on condition of anonymity. An official with an Iraqi ministry focused on protecting energy infrastructure says that trend will turn around.

The expert's data includes attacks on more than 800 workers and more than 1,000 attacks on infrastructure such as pipelines, oil fields and wells, refineries and tankers, power lines and towers, power stations and substations. The expert cautioned that all the data rely on what is actually reported, assuredly lower than the number of actual attacks.

Iraq recently repaired and turned back on the pipeline from Kirkuk in the north to Turkey's Mediterranean Sea port of Ceyhan. The second-most important pipeline in the country, it has been largely useless since the war began because of attacks.

"All pipelines throughout Iraq are vulnerable to attack, however the levels of attacks reduced recently due to the security measures," said Issa Jaffar Jabir, director general of the Ministry of National Security Affairs.

The ministry operates the Oil Protection Force and uses special Iraqi troops, and Jabir said soon the Iraqi air force would contribute to protecting the energy infrastructure. He wouldn't say how members protect the infrastructure.

He said he won't be able to have "a security vision for the country" until the oil law is approved.

Iraq's oil exports brought in more than 93 percent of the federal budget last year, an amount that would increase if the government's long-term plans to revamp the various energy sectors, as well as other industries, fall in line. Iraq estimates the hydrocarbons and electricity sectors need more than $50 billion in investment through 2016.

Industry Minister Hariri, speaking to reporters in Dubai hours before a flight to Washington, said other industries could deliver up to 20 percent of the country's gross domestic product. That means the energy sector grows as robust as the oil and gas reserves could allow it to; private companies, domestic and foreign, start investing; and the country becomes safer, he said.

"I don't actually blame the companies for not wanting 'either risk my own investment or risk my people.' For people who are looking at it from outside, it looks gloomy. Me from the inside I can see a different picture to the situation. There are large pockets of the country where the environment is safe where potential workers or companies can actually do work."

He points to the economic development in Iraqi Kurdistan, a potential gateway into the rest of Iraq, perhaps employing Iraqis, who would be safer than foreigners right now.

"In the long term Iraq will be the next land for investment," he said. "There will not be another part of this planet that provides so much promise and so many opportunities Â… with quick, great return as Iraq will."

Analysis: Oil, security for Iraq investors : Middle East World

Latest US report faults Iraqi ministry

Washington - Iraqi forces are not ready to handle security and the country's Interior Ministry is plagued by sectarianism and corruption, according to the Washington Post, which obtained a copy of a new report to be released Thursday.

The congressionally appointed commission consisting of retired military officers designed to study the state of Iraqi security forces concluded the country will not be capable of providing its own security in the next 12-18 months without the assistance of the US military.

The commission, headed by retired Marine General James Jones, said the Iraqi Interior Minister is 'dysfunctional and sectarian' and that Iraqi forces' logistical self-sufficiency is at least two years away.

The report is the second of three this month to be released assessing the situation in Iraq since US President George W Bush ordered a US troop surge earlier this year.

The White House is due to release by September 15 an assessment from the US ambassador in Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, and General David Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq, on the political and military situation in the country.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) issued a report on Tuesday saying that the Iraqi government has failed to meet 15 of 18 benchmarks set by Congress to determine how much progress the Iraqi government has made in tackling key challenges.

The report by the GAO, Congress' investigative arm, contradicted a White House assessment in July that said the Iraqi government had achieved eight of the goals.

Latest US report faults Iraqi ministry - Middle East

Interesting,

Recently two representatives of BB&M International attended the conference meeting in Dubai in late August. All is looking well for a Sept 28 launch of the Iraqi currency on the International market. Should delays occur there is a 90 day extension in place from the IMF International Monetary Fund and BB&M was assure by Mr Al Sistani the minister of Finance in Iraq that they hope to get this bill passed in a timely fashion. Below you\'ll find a copy of the letter received for the conference.

US Ambassadors Letter of Invitation
====================================

Dear Mr. XXXXXXXX:
We have not met, but your name came up as someone who has an interest in investment in Iraq. By way of introduction, I work for the US Embassy on economic development initiatives, where I’m currently working on an Iraq investment conference you might be interested in attending. The conference is by invitation only, but I can get you on the list if you like. The admission fee will be nominal ($100 or less, just to cover lunches, refreshments, etc). Following is more information on the conference:

The government of Iraq is holding a conference at the Radisson SAS Diera Creek, in Dubai, UAE for the period 28 – 30 August 2007 under the patronage of HE the Vice President Dr. Adil Abdul Mahdi. This is the first of three planned conferences that will address several topics related to the economic development, business and investment opportunities. The focus of the first conference will be the seven southern Iraqi provinces (namely Basrah, Muthanna, Thi Qar, Qadisiyah, Najaf, Karbala and Missan).

The objective of the conference is to bring together businessmen who have potential economically feasible projects with regional and international investors, banks and financial institutions that are willing and interested in considering business opportunities in Iraq, within the framework of the new investment law and the emerging market economy environment.

Your participation in this conference will certainly add a lot of value. Please find attached the conference agenda. I am happy to answer any questions you may have, and look forward to hearing from you. We hope to see you at the conference.

V/R,

Glenn Corliss
Economic Advisor
US Embassy, Baghdad, Iraq
Mobile: 1 (914) 360-2442
Email: [email protected]

Originally Posted by Offshore-Wealth.com

Interesting,

Recently two representatives of BB&M International attended the conference meeting in Dubai in late August. All is looking well for a Sept 28 launch of the Iraqi currency on the International market. Should delays occur there is a 90 day extension in place from the IMF International Monetary Fund and BB&M was assure by Mr Al Sistani the minister of Finance in Iraq that they hope to get this bill passed in a timely fashion. Below you\'ll find a copy of the letter received for the conference.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani is a Shia cleric not the Minister of Finance.....not sure of the legitimacy of this. Thanx for posting it Mike....it's worth checking it out further regardless.

U.S. Troop Drawdown in Iraq Could Begin Next Year, Report Says

By Tony Capaccio

Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. could start withdrawing some troops from Iraq early next year if Iraq's army continues to improve its combat capability, a new report prepared for Congress says.

The study, produced by a commission headed by U.S. military commanders, expresses guarded optimism that Iraq's 194,000- member military, including the Army, special-forces commandos and border guards, could have the capability by December 2008 to operate with reduced U.S. assistance.

The report by the Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq is the most comprehensive U.S. analysis to date of Iraq's military. Iraq's armed forces were dismantled in May 2003 after the U.S. invasion and are being gradually reconstituted.

``There is evidence to show that the emerging Iraqi soldier is willing to fight against declared enemies of the state, with some exceptions remaining along ethnic lines,'' the study said. The report said the military won't be capable of maintaining security on its own for ``the next 12 to 18 months'' though there can be reduced dependence on U.S. forces during that period.

The report singled out Iraqi special forces and counter- terrorism units for praise, calling them ``highly capable and extremely effective.'' The commission said Iraq's police forces under the Ministry of Interior are ``widely regarded as being dysfunctional and sectarian.''

A study released Sept. 4 by the U.S. Government Accountability Office said Iraq's government has fulfilled only three of 18 benchmarks on political and security progress and the country remains torn by violence.

Congressional Debate

Congress is resuming its debate on Iraq as it awaits the testimony next week of the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, Army General David Petraeus, and U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker.

The latest report on Iraq was prepared by a commission headed by former Marine Corps Commandant and NATO Commander General James Jones. The commission includes 20 retired officers, and John Hamre, a former deputy defense secretary during the Clinton administration.

The panel's report said it found ``encouraging'' a new alliance between U.S. forces and Sunni tribal leaders in al- Anbar province to fight al-Qaeda in Iraq.

``Coalition forces could begin to be adjusted, realigned and re-tasked as the Iraqi Army is able to take more responsibility for daily combat operations,'' the report said. It will be made public today at a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and copies were made available yesterday to news organizations.

Possible Reductions

The report said it is ``reasonable to believe'' there could be reductions in U.S. forces in early 2008 ``depending on the continuing rate of progress of the Iraqi Security Forces.''

``The challenge for the Iraqi army is its limited operational effectiveness, caused primarily by deficiencies in leadership, lack of disciplinary standards and logistics shortfalls,'' the study said. ``Many of the problems can be attributed to marginal leadership at senior military and civilian positions in the Ministry of Defense and operational commands.''

A lack of national political reconciliation is hampering military progress, the report said, echoing the assessment of previous studies.

``There are still too few indications that police units, the armed forces and their respective ministries work well together in the aggregate,'' the commission said. ``National reconciliation efforts must recognize and seek to address perceptions, whether fact or fiction, that fuel sectarian animosity.''

Iraq is still unable to supply forces with food, medical care, ammunition, transportation and shelter for sustained operations, the report said, calling that failure ``the Achilles' heel of the Iraqi ground forces.''

The full report will be posted today on the Web site of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tony Capaccio in Washington at [email protected] .

Last Updated: September 6, 2007 00:24 EDT

Tensions hinder Iraq oilfield development

Thursday, 06 September 2007

Major disagreements in the Iraqi parliament have to be negotiated before a critical and long awaited hydrocarbon law can be passed, Iraqi officials said at a summit in Dubai last week. This will ease the way for billions of dollars in foreign investment to enter the country's massive oil sector.

A draft oil law approved in July needs to undergo extensive amendments before it is finally passed. At the summit Abdul-Hadi Al Hasani, deputy head of Iraq's parliamentary energy committee, said the new rule would be passed by the end of the year. However, intense political squabbling can be expected before the bill is finalised.

The hydrocarbon industry accounts for over 90% of government revenue and its development is crucial to Iraq's future. "Iraqi people have suffered enough," said former oil minister Ibrahim Bahr Al Olom at the conference. "They deserve better life, better standards of living. The only window for such life is the development of Iraq's oil and gas sector."

Top ministers from the Iraqi government gathered for the Iraq Oil, Gas, Petrochemical and Electricity (IOGPE) summit held in Dubai last week. International public and private sector oil companies flocked to the three-day conference hoping to secure lucrative deals in the war-torn country.

However, it has not yet been decided which oilfields will be run by a new national oil company, or how contract models for investors developing the remaining run-down infrastructure will be formulated. These are likely to be hotly contested issues.

Iraq has the world's third largest proven petroleum reserves and some of the lowest extraction costs. Yet only a fraction of its known fields are in development, and Iraq is one of the least explored countries among the major oil producers. According to the Iraq Oil Commission only 155 exploration wells have been drilled. In addition, the country sits on 3.1 trillion cubic metres of proven gas reserves.

The development of Iraq's oil sector remains controversial among those who believe that the March 2003 US-led invasion of the country was in part driven by energy security concerns in the US and a desire to secure energy supplies in the country. The event drew over 500 attendees from around the world, proving that interest in Iraq's oil and gas sector is substantial.

Tensions hinder Iraq oilfield development - Energy - ArabianBusiness.com