Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 01/01/08 - 14/04/08

Police chief purges force in Basra

Basra’s police boss has transferred 1,000 of his police officers to stations outside the city in a move to purge the force of elements believed to be loyal to their political and sectarian factions.

It is the third time Basra’s police commander, Abedjalil Khalaf, embarks on such large-scale transfer. Previously, he had ordered 2,000 more police officers to leave the city.

The transfer is the largest of its type since the formation of the new police, security and army and comes amid reports that the city’s police forces have drastically failed to reinstate law and order.

The security of Basra is now solely Iraq’s responsibility after the withdrawal of British occupation troops to barracks in the city outskirts.

“We had obtained official permission to go ahead with the transfer as part of efforts to cleanse the police system in Basra of elements with political loyalties,” Khalaf said.

He did not say how he would make up for the loss of 3,000 policemen and what recruiting criteria he would adopt to have them replaced.

Basra is currently Iraq’s largest oil producing and exporting center.

Shiite political factions have been scrambling for influence and power and their disparate militias are said to be better armed and equipped than government forces.

Azzaman in English

Al Maliki back home with 'big goals'

Baghdad: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki arrived home on Saturday a week after flying to Britain for medical tests, saying in a newspaper interview he was determined to bring about reconciliation in the deeply divided country.

Al Maliki underwent two days of check-ups in a London hospital after suffering exhaustion caused by his heavy workload, a spokesman said earlier.

A small but vocal number of supporters welcomed Al Maliki, waving Iraqi flags and displaying posters of him as the premier's convoy left the airport.

"I have returned to our homeland to continue construction at this hard stage in the history of Iraq," he told reporters on his arrival. "My health is good and we have big goals this year."

In the interview, given before he returned to Baghdad but published yesterday, Al Maliki dismissed accusations that his government did not want to end divisions that have practically paralysed parliament.

"The reality shows that this is lying propaganda. I am the first who launched this initiative but unfortunately some politicians do not want reconciliation," he told Al Sharq Al Awsat Arabic international daily.

He said the government will continue to support US-backed Sunni Arab groups that have joined the fight against Al Qaida and will integrate a 'large number' of them in the security forces.

The comments constituted the strongest public support to date by the Shiite Al Maliki of the Sunni groups that switched sides last year and now number more than 70,000.

'Iraq will not be a base'

They came two days after another top Shiite leader, Abdul Aziz Al Hakim, voiced support for the role played by the groups in the fight against Al Qaida.

He also vowed that Iraq would not used as a springboard for attacks on its neighbours. "Iraq will not be a base to harm them, and will not be a headquarters or passage for any force which wants to damage the interests of Arab countries or our neighbours such as Turkey or Iran."

Al Maliki attacked Iraq's Sunni Vice-President Tarik Al Hashemi, with whom he has repeatedly clashed over how to restore stability. "The disagreement [with Al Hashimi] is substantial," he said. "I disagree with those who say that the political process must return to square one. I disagree with the call for freezing the constitution.

"The state collapsed completely and we are about to construct it. This needs effort and real partnership." US officials have expressed frustration at the lack of progress in reconciling Iraq's warring communities.

Washington regards two Bills stalled before parliament - an oil law and legislation that would rehabilitate hundreds of members of Saddam Hussain's Baath party - as "benchmarks" towards reconciliation.

Gulfnews: Al Maliki back home with 'big goals'

Iraq abides by the Algiers agreement: Talebani

TEHRAN, Jan. 05 (ISNA)-The Iraqi government adheres to the Algiers agreement signed in 1975 and regards it as an international agreement, Iraq' president announced.

Visiting Iran's ambassador in Iraq Hassan Kazemi Qomi, Jalal Talebani said Iraq abides by the Algiers agreement and the document remains valid and his previous remarks in this regard have not been cited exactly.

A few days ago some media quoted Jalal Talebani as saying the Algiers agreement was signed between Saddam Hussein and Iran's last Shah but not between Iran and Iraq so it is considered as being cancelled.

Talebani later denied their citations and said they have misquoted him.

Talebani went on to say that since the Algiers agreement was signed between Saddam Hussein and Iran's last Shah, the two criminals, "we objected to the agreement but now that Islamic Republic of Iran has been established and Iraq' dictatorial regime was collapsed the situation changed so the Algiers agreement is valid."

Kazemi Qomi for his part said media's misquotation of Talebani's remarks in this regard cast doubt for the public opinion.

He also continued to say that Iran-Iraq ties seems tight and the two sides are willing to cooperate in all domains and stress all the cooperation agreements be implemented.

ISNA - 01-05-2008 - 86/10/15 - Service: / Foreign Policy / News ID: 1064074

Smith&Nephew to submit papers for Iraq bribes probe

Medical equipment maker Smith & Nephew has been asked to submit confidential documents to Britain's Serious Fraud Office as part of a wide-ranging probe following allegations bribes were paid to win contracts in Iraq.

"Smith & Nephew has been asked to submit documents to the SFO and will cooperate fully with the inquiry," a spokesman for the firm said on Sunday, confirming a newspaper report.

The SFO is investigating possible breaches of the oil-for-food sanctions programme, which was designed to allow the regime of Saddam Hussein to sell limited amounts of oil to buy food and medicine.

GlaxoSmithKline Plc and AstraZeneca Plc said last Sunday the SFO had asked them to hand over documents.

The drugmakers deny any wrongdoing and say they are cooperating fully.

Notices were served last month by the SFO, following a 2005 United Nations report which listed more than 2,200 companies around the world that might have been linked to bribes paid to the Iraqi government.

Smith&Nephew to submit papers for Iraq bribes probe | News | Breaking City News | Reuters&

Iraq surge brings a lull in violence but no reconciliation

Already, the “surge” of US troops into Baghdad is beginning to recede, leaving behind a country where, by most accounts, levels of political violence are much reduced.

But the surge has not accomplished the goal that the administration of US President George W. Bush set when it announced the policy at the beginning of last year – to buy time for Iraqi politicians to reach compromises on the country’s future that would reconcile its feuding ethnic and sectarian factions.

US officers say that such a grand compromise may not be so important. They have achieved “bottom-up” reconciliation by cementing local alliances and arranging for the amnesty of prisoners, the pensioning off of former regime officials and other measures to win Sunni acceptance for the Shia-led government.

Over the next year, as neighbourhoods, towns and districts lose the US garrisons that helped suppress sectarian militias and insurgent groups and maintain the balance of power, the ability of these improvised measures to withstand the centrifugal forces of Iraqi sectarian politics will be put to the test.

US forces numbered approximately 160,000 at the end of December, down from a high of over 170,000 in October. Robert Gates, US defence secretary, said last month that the military should be able to withdraw five brigades, or around 20,000 soldiers, by mid-2008, and hoped to take out another five by the end of this year.

British troops will also be winding down their deployment in Iraq, with numbers expected to fall from 5,000 to 2,500 in the middle of next year.
In terms of reducing violence, the strategy orchestrated by General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, appears to have succeeded beyond its planners’ expectations. Both US military casualties and Iraqi civilian casualties have fallen dramatically since the summer.

But many Iraqi politicians and Iraq analysts fear that unless the government can reach agreement with its political opponents, the lull in violence may not last. “If this improvement in security is not matched by improvements in political life, economy, unemployment and the services for the standard of living, [or] if there is no reconciliation, nobody can guarantee that this security would not deteriorate again,” says Mahmoud Othman, an independent Kurdish politician.

“What Petraeus has accomplished is a lull that is sustainable through the American elections [in November 2008],” says Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think-tank. “It’s not indefinitely sustainable without political accommodation at the top . . . This is conventional wisdom and it makes sense.”

Gen Petraeus himself said last month that, although the violence that had brought Iraq to the “brink of civil war” had receded, the progress had been “tenuous in many areas and could be reversed”.

According to American officers, the surge worked by allowing the US and Iraqi governments to blanket strategic districts, in some cases placing troops in positions where they could overlook virtually every main road junction.

This allowed US forces to intercept guerrillas moving in and out – and, more importantly, to break the hold that insurgents had gained on neighbourhoods via intimidation. Fatalities suffered by the US-led coalition fell to 40 a month in October and November, and 23 in December, from well over 100 a month in each of April, May and June. Figures for civilian dead also suggest a drop of more than 50 per cent since the summer.

In addition, both Sunni and Shia armed groups appear to have suffered a significant loss of legitimacy among their support bases. Members of both sects say that the gunmen alienated the civilian population by imposing a puritan version of Islamic law or by killing locals suspected of being informants.

Iraq’s al-Qaeda network, in particular, sparked a massive backlash. Over 70,000 paramilitaries, or “concerned local citizens”, enlisted in neighbourhood patrols targeted mainly at the radical Sunni movement.

Shia militants also appear to have lost legitimacy. Muqtada al-Sadr, the radical cleric, continues to enforce a ban on all armed activity in areas controlled by his movement, and his deputies say that that they have formed a special “Golden Unit” to purge members suspected of criminal violence or sectarian killing.

However, the retreat of the armed movements does not appear to have been accompanied by a corresponding increase in the authority and legitimacy of the Iraqi state. Gen Petraeus has said that as al-Qaeda activity lessens in Sunni areas, “mafia-like” criminal organisations practising kidnapping and extortion expand to fill the gap. Meanwhile, the British military’s recent withdrawal from Basra city stems from the realisation that it could do little to stop feuding among Islamist militia groups.

Some analysts have suggested Basra is a glimpse into Iraq’s medium-term future. The violence there, which probably results in several dozen dead a month, is hardly a serious threat to the Iraqi state. But the climate of lawlessness ensures that investors steer clear of an oil-rich port city that could be Iraq’s economic and commercial capital – and that the middle class, which fled en masse to neighbouring countries, does not return.

Meanwhile, Iraqi politicians have failed to deliver the hoped-for “national reconciliation” package of legislation. Parliament adjourned at the end of the year without having approved important legislation on the distribution of oil revenues and the fate of members of the former ruling Ba’ath party. Given the heated rhetoric that continues to fly between Kurds and Arabs, Sunni and Shia, it appears that the much-vaunted “consensus” may not in fact exist.

It could be the US troop presence, rather than low-profile trust-building measures, that is the crucial factor in keeping the feuding factions apart. “The Americans can [prevent local conflicts] now because they have leverage through the military,” says Mr Hiltermann.

The US surge does appear to have interrupted the cycle of violence that a year ago seemed to be pushing Iraq inexorably into all-out sectarian war. But it has not bought Iraqis enough time to resolve their differences and it is unclear whether local ceasefires can last without US troops to help resolve disagreements and prevent groups from settling their disputes by force.

FT.com / Comment & analysis / Analysis - Iraq surge brings a lull in violence but no reconciliation

Al Qaida is on the run in Iraq

Osama Bin Laden has warned Iraq's Sunni Arabs against fighting Al Qaida. These new threats were released in a new audiotape recently, where Bin Laden promises "blood for blood, destruction for destruction."

Most of the one-hour tape dealt with Iraq, as truly, Iraq is united against the Al Qaida terrorists. In Iraq, we have a saying which goes: "This is the last rise of the dying", or Sahwat al Mawt, for Al Qaida's Iraq branch is on the run.

Benazir Bhutto's assassination was not mentioned at all, which suggests the tape was made before her assassination.

Bin Laden is also heard saying: "We intend to liberate Palestine, the whole of Palestine from the [Jordan] river to the sea," threatening "blood for blood, destruction for destruction", reminding us of the way Saddam wanted to liberate Palestine through Iran during the 1980-1988 war with that country.

Saddam's slogan was "Jerusalem's liberation comes through the Eastern borders of the Arab nation", which was extremely long and winding, so he had to top it all by invading Kuwait for no reason which could not have been resolved in a diplomatic manner.

"We will not recognise even one inch for Jews in the land of Palestine as other Muslim leaders have," Bin Laden said.

This sentence sent me back 1,400 plus years, to the time of the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH). During his time, there were Jews all over the region, not as an occupation force of course, but as people who lived side by side with all the rest of us.

We even took the "Jews" with us when we left Andalusia. Not all Jews are Zionists, and wars are not the solution today. Negotiation tables are. Blood will only shed more blood and I do believe the region has had enough.

Reducing violence

In Iraq, a number of Sunni Arab tribes in the western Anbar province formed a coalition to fight Al Qaida-linked terrorists that are credited for deeply reducing violence in the province.

The Awakening Councils started forming after Al Qaida started blowing up locations with the sons of Sunni Arab tribes. One friend told me of a story where one tribal chief asked the terrorists to leave innocent people alone, and was subsequently threatened by the terrorists.

Bin Laden said in his new tape that Sunni Arabs who have joined the Awakening Councils "have betrayed the nation and brought disgrace and shame to their people". He added: "They will suffer in life and in the afterlife."

This is very interesting, as I have not seen a fact being distorted in this manner for a long time now. It is Al Qaida terrorists who have betrayed our principles and beliefs.

When the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) sent his armies in Islamic "futuhat-conquests" he would not stop telling the army's commanders: "Never harm a woman, child or man. Do not destroy trees, do not harm the land, and do not fight those who do not fight you".

So where does Al Qaida in Mesopotamia stand here?

Friends from Ramadi tell me that they felt ashamed when Al Qaida killed innocent kids and women through suicide bombers.

"This is not Islam, we are the religion of acceptance and tolerance, and the sooner we settle down, the faster the US will leave Iraq."

And I believe this is the whole point. Most probably Al Qaida in Mesopotamia does not want the US troops to leave Iraq, as Iraq has become their open game land. Hitting the US within the US is difficult, so what better way than to use Iraq as their scoring field?

Hours before the tape was issued, the US Multinational Forces Commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, stressed that Al Qaida was becoming increasingly fearful of losing the support of Sunni Arabs and had begun targeting the leaders of the Awakening Councils.

Al Qaida is on the run in Iraq | Iraq Updates

Small loans bring projects to life- economists

Iraqi economic experts praised the small loan scheme launched by some governmental and non-governmental organizations, and slammed the Iraqi Central Bank's policy of reducing liquidity.

"Small loans have helped revive many projects which were on their way to extinction," an economic analyst, Husam al-Samouk, told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI), arguing that 90% of the country's 130 small projects are facing immense difficulties to survive.

"The remaining 10% operate at 20-50% of their capacity as a result of many obstacles, notably the shortage of raw material and power problems," al-Samouk indicated.

"The provision of simplified loans for owners of these projects will help drive forward the Iraqi economy and implement a real economic development," the analyst added.

Several banks as well as governmental and non-governmental organizations have offered loans to citizens, a policy that aims to set up new projects and develop existing ones.

Criticizing the Iraqi Central Bank's policy of reducing its liquidity and raising the interest rate in an attempt to encourage people to increase their savings, al-Samouk said that the bank's policy has proved ineffective in reducing the price of basic goods.

"The only beneficiaries of this policy are speculators," al-Samouk explained.

Kamal al-Basiri, an Iraqi researcher, described the small loan scheme as a major attractor of investment in the country.

Al-Basiri criticized the Central Bank's policy of countering inflation by reducing its liquidity and raising the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar, overlooking the country's need for a real economic growth.

The head of the non-governmental Arbil-based al-Thiqa (Trust) Organization, Ardmis Oganis, said that her organization has provided job opportunities for hundreds of individuals and monthly income for dozens of Iraqi families.

"Over 1,000 borrowers from Arbil province have benefited from our loans since the establishment of our organization in 2004," Oganis added.
The organization grants interest-free loans of $500-$25,000 to be repaid in 16 months, she explained.

Arbil, the capital of Iraq's Kurdistan region, lies 349 km northeast of the Iraqi capital Baghdad.

Small loans bring projects to life- economists | Iraq Updates

Iraq's unknown economy
What is happening on the economic side through Iraq?

While Iraq's security situation improves dramatically, and its political scene muddles along with only very limited and mostly local steps toward gradual Sunni-Shia-Kurd rapprochement, what is happening on the economic side?

As students and practitioners of counterinsurgency and nation building well know, the economy is the third pillar of any successful mission, along with the security and political environments, and can never be neglected.

After meeting again recently with some of our top economic aid and reconstruction experts on Iraq, I have concluded they continue to do remarkable things at considerable personal risk and hardship in Iraq. Hospitals and electricity plants are being built, transportation infrastructure improved, water and waste treatment plants constructed. But the other striking, and lamentable, fact about our economic efforts in Iraq is that for the most part we don't have the foggiest idea how well they are working. That has to change.

To be fair, some things are known. Inflation is within reasonable bounds. Oil revenues are up quite a bit due to the price of petroleum, even if production has increased only very gradually. Due largely to the improved security environment, electricity production and distribution finally took a substantial step forward in 2007, for the first time since the 2003 invasion. Without even counting the informal electricity sector, which has itself grown, official numbers have increased 10 percent to 20 percent. Cell phone ownership and usage have gone through the roof; national port capacity has increased substantially; the Internet is making real inroads.

Less happily, household fuel supplies are nudging upward slightly, but only after a couple years of stagnation or even decline relative to demand. Foreign investment remains very modest due to ongoing uncertainty about Iraq's future - and concern about the violence of the present. Unemployment remains quite severe.

Beyond those conclusions, though, we don't know much. While the U.S. government can point to many individual projects that are progressing or reaching the ribbon-cutting phase, we do not have a sense of overall national trends. How many Iraqis get water? How many have their trash picked up, or sewage removed dependably from their neighborhoods? How many get the water they need to irrigate their crops? How many get basic health care when they need it? How many of their kids are in school? And how do all these numbers compare to last year, or the latter year's of Saddam's rule - important benchmarks in shaping Iraqis' perceptions of their government's performance (not to mention that of the United States)?

The answers are blowing in the wind. American aid agencies either do not have viable strategies to collect meaningful data or believe they must defer to sovereign Iraqi authorities on such matters.

With American aid dollars drying up even as Iraqi government funds skyrocket due to the high price of crude oil, it is increasingly clear that while security remains in large part an American task, economic reconstruction and development must be led by Iraqis. So we bow out of the debate at times.

There is some logic to this thinking, but in the end it is flawed. We must know how well the economy in Iraq is doing. How else can we know whether to advise Iraqis to undertake a massive jobs creation program to alleviate the unemployment rate? Or to revamp strategies for national infrastructure, focusing on smaller and more local systems rather than larger ones vulnerable either to sabotage or to politicians' bickering and interference?

How else can we pressure countries like Saudi Arabia to do more to help Iraq, if we cannot clearly explain how much help Iraq still needs? How can we convince war-weary American voters to stay with the Iraq effort (even as it is gradually downsized in coming years) if they have no comprehensive sense of how it is really going?

It is entirely possible to collect better data. Each year the World Bank produces admittedly imperfect but still useful basic developmental information on the overwhelming majority of the world's countries, including some others experiencing conflict.

Few of these countries have the huge foreign presence found in Iraq, yet data are still collected and vetted. Information on child survival, primary education, literacy and life expectancy is readily available for most African states, for example. Why can't we do as well in Iraq?

We need to do better. One place to start is to ask the United Nations, which produces most of the above-mentioned data for other countries, to expand its similar operations throughout Iraq. UNICEF has recently issued a report on the state of Iraq's children, but its data on education is old. In fact, the report provides a nationwide estimate on the availability of basic utilities only for the single specific matter of sewers (UNICEF estimates that, outside Baghdad, 20 percent of Iraq's children have use of proper sewerage facilities).

Another complementary approach would using polling and surveys to gauge Iraqi attitudes about quality-of-life indicators. To be sure, such surveys produce imprecise information at best, and only become truly meaningful over months or years as we can discern trends in perceptions. But better late than never.

Also, even if survey data are bound to be inexact, perceptions are hugely important in building a nation, healing sectarian wounds and restoring to the extent possible the image of America. We need to know if Iraqis believe their lives are getting better.

Last year was the year of security in Iraq, a remarkable period of unmistakable and hugely encouraging progress in reducing violence. Of course, 2008 needs to a year for Iraqi political progress to reinforce that security trajectory. But just as much, it needs to be the year of the economy. With the security environment so much better, that is now possible.

We will only know how well we are doing and what further changes may be necessary, if we recognize the importance of economic trends - and become curious enough to study them with the same care and attention we devote to understanding Iraq's violence.

Iraq's unknown economy | Iraq Updates

Kurdistani Alliance: Disagreement Between al-Shahristani and KRG is Constitutional

Kurdistani Alliance Bloc spokesman Firyad Rawandozi said that the expected negotiations between the Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani and KRG officials about the oil contracts is the best way to solve the problems.

In a statement to Radio Sawa, Rawandozi said that the disagreement between Baghdad and Kurdistan Region Governments is constitutional.

He also said that this disagreement can be solved by the Constitutional Court or through dialogue.

PUKmedia :: English - Kurdistani Alliance: Disagreement Between al-Shahristani and KRG is Constitutional

Bush: Pulling out US Forces from Iraq will be based on our Leader’s Recommendations

In an exclusive interview with al-Arabia Satellite Channel, George W. Bush, US President talked about the Iraqi affair and said “The resolution of pulling out our Troops from Iraq will be taken according to the recommendations of US Army Leadership there, I think Economic and Political situations were improved, I always tell the American People that the Iraqi mother want the same thing that American ones want, it’s a child’s opportunity to live in peace.”

George W. Bush considered that New Year celebrations in Baghdad are signs that normal life returned to Iraq. Concerning Syria as a neighbor to Iraq Bush said” I will appreciate it if it was practically preventing suicides entrance to Iraq; this is the only way to have good relations with US.”

PUKmedia :: English - Bush: Pulling out US Forces from Iraq will be based on our Leader’s Recommendations