Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 01/01/08 - 14/04/08

Iraq Political Progress Benchmarks

Jason Campbell, Michael O’Hanlon and Amy Unikewicz say that Brookings has come up with some metrics to measure political progress in Iraq and that, contrary to conventional wisdom, there actually has been some.

The most intriguing area of late is the sphere of politics. To track progress, we have established “Brookings benchmarks” — a set of goals on the political front similar to the broader benchmarks set for Baghdad by Congress last year. Our 11 benchmarks include establishing provincial election laws, reaching an oil-revenue sharing accord, enacting pension and amnesty laws, passing annual federal budgets, hiring Sunni volunteers into the security forces, holding a fair referendum on the disputed northern oil city of Kirkuk, and purging extremists from government ministries and security forces.

At the moment, we give the Iraqis a score of 5 out of 11 (our system allows a score of 0, 0.5, or 1 for each category, and is dynamic, meaning we can subtract points for backsliding). It is far too soon to predict that Iraq is headed for stability or sectarian reconciliation. But it is also clear that those who assert that its politics are totally broken have not kept up with the news.

Laura Rosen and Matt Yglesias reasonably enough, would like to see the actual metrics and know how they were calculated.

So, I checked the Brookings website and in less than a minute found the Brookings’ Iraq Index page which links the most recent edition (March 3rd) in PDF format. Essentially, it just gives the in depth numbers behind the “clipboard” included with the NYT op-ed. It’s 62 pages and I haven’t had time to do more than skim it but it looks to be a fairly impressive collection of data.

Whether these indicators are the best for assessing political progress, let alone whether the trends are anomalies and sustainable, is debatable. But there is indeed an “Index” that’s publicly available to those who want to make such assessments.

UPDATE: I attended a luncheon hosted by Steve Coll and Steve Clemons of the New American Foundation bringing together some representatives of the “Wonkosphere.” Two of the participants, Spencer Ackerman and Ezra Klein, have some interesting insights on the piece. (Yglesias, linked previously, was also in attendance.)

Spencer says, “O’Hanlon isn’t just moving the goal posts, he’s building a whole new playing field.” Moreover, there’s a larger issue:

O’Hanlon isn’t calling his new measurements O’Hanlon Benchmarks. He’s calling them Brookings Benchmarks. The whole institution, which contains real scholars, has been sucked into this morass. What does Strobe Talbott, Brookings’ president and Bill Clinton’s deputy secretary of state, think about this? Do the undefined Brookings Benchmarks represent responsible scholarship?

Ezra adds that,

[T]he New York Times shouldn’t simply be reprinting O’Hanlon’s “benchmarks” without giving readers some way to evaluate whether they’re worth listening to. O’Hanlon, after all, is anything but an objective source. He’s a media beast who’s currently fighting a war over his reputation, a war started when the army gave him a guided, planned tour demonstrating their “progress” in Iraq, and he wrote a puff piece on it. Now he desperately needs to advance a narrative of progress if he’s not going to be laughed out of every foreign policy room forevermore. If the Times wants a set of Iraq benchmarks, they should convene a panel of independent experts, or develop one themselves. Letting O’Hanlon grade the conflict is rather like letting Scott Templeton fact check his own work.

The general topic of O’Hanlon, the legitimacy conferred by institutions such as Brookings and the NYT consumed much of the luncheon conversation. It’s an interesting topic that I expect will be revisited here and elsewhere.

Iraq Political Progress Benchmarks » Outside The Beltway | OTB

Analysis: Iraq Oil Deals moving in phases

With or without a new oil law, Iraq will sign deals with international oil companies aimed at boosting production, the top Oil Ministry spokesman said.

"The Ministry of Oil had to make a move, with or without passing the oil law," Assem Jihad told United Press International in a phone interview from Baghdad, "and set up the suitable plans to increase the oil production."

Iraq oil production is increasing but has only recently been consistently more than 2 million barrels per day. Its workers need modern training, the fields modern equipment and the harmful effects of Saddam Hussein's mismanagement, U.N. sanctions and decades of war reversed.

Jihad said special contracts for five oil fields will be signed late this month or next month, each with a goal of 100,000 bpd improvement. The ministry has been mum on details, but media reports and insider information name Shell, BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Total in the discussions for Kirkuk, Rumaila, West Qurna, Zubair, Abu Zorgan, Fauqi, Subba and Luhais fields. The later fields may not be included, depending on sources.

"In the near future," Jihad added, the names of companies that qualify to sign longer-term development deals will be announced.

The ministry is moving forward with an ad-hoc plan to increase outside investment in the oil sector as a draft oil law intended to set post-Saddam guidelines for governing the oil sector remains stuck in Parliament.

Various factions, mainly the Oil Ministry in Baghdad and Iraq's Kurds, can't agree on how decentralized -- thus potentially privatized -- the currently nationalized sector should be.

The Kurdistan Regional Government has passed its own oil law and signed dozens of exploration and production deals with international oil firms, the types angering Iraq's oil workers and prompting Baghdad to call them illegal and threaten to blacklist the firms that sign.

Last week the ministry got the OK from the Iraqi Cabinet to move forward with the plan: sign two - to three-year Technical Support. Agreements to increase production on the five large fields and begin the process for a bidding round to develop both producing and non-producing discovered oil and gas fields.

Many oil companies have been offering free training to workers and studies of oil and gas fields and structures. The new TSAs will be "formalizing the process of backdoor assistance," one international official in Iraq told UPI. Terms to be worked out include exact compensation. One option being looked at is crude in lieu of cash, but such an arrangement may not jive with U.N. regulations held over from the corrupt Oil-for-Food program, which prevents bartering and requires all oil and gas is sold.

The deals are "sort of maintenance for the oil infrastructure," said Abdul-Hadi al-Hasani, deputy chief of the Parliament's Energy Committee, "not really drilling or extracting of crude." The firms that sign TSAs will transfer technology, training and advice, the ministry says. Security is a big, but not sole, factor for foreign oil companies to largely keep boots off the ground.

Without a new oil law, the ministry is relying on Saddam-era regulations folding almost all power into its hands. It must receive parliamentary approval for the largest contracts and certain types, such as production-sharing contracts. Hasani said many will need to be approved by the Iraqi Cabinet, though, because of their size.

"The Ministry of Oil considers the government as its reference," Jihad said, "and informs it with each step in this direction.

"The government essentially asked the Ministry of Oil to do what it could to develop the oil industry to increase oil production and develop the fields."

More than 115 companies have pre-registered with the ministry to take part in the bidding round, "an invitation from the Ministry of Oil … to invest in the extract sector," Jihad said. "There are many wells and fields that need development."

The deals offered in the tender will likely be service contracts (where a company is paid to carry out certain work). The Middle East Economic Survey reports Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani says the deals won't need Parliament's green light, which means PSAs and other risk contracts aren't being considered now. He didn't disclose either the contract type or the number of fields, MEES reports.

Jihad said the ministry will be transparent, releasing the names of companies and terms of contracts, and holding news conferences as major milestones -- like naming qualified companies -- are reached.

The companies that get the pending five TSAs will not be guaranteed longer-term development deals for the fields, Iraqi officials say, though two or three years of work and study will certainly pad a resume.

Analysis: Iraq oil deals moving in phases - UPI.com

Iraqi leaders urge support at Erbil Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union conference

The Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union (AIPU) conference opened today in Erbil, capital of the Kurdistan Region in Iraq.

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani welcomed the parliamentary delegates from 18 Arab countries. He said, "This conference is an exceptional event that will enhance Iraqi-Arab relations." He added, "We are pleased to have you in Erbil, the Northern gateway to the new federal, democratic and unified Iraq."

With Iraq scheduled to host the AIPU, Erbil was selected as host-city for its record of safety and security.

President Talabani said that the progress experienced in Iraq today was the result of concerted military action coupled with great political cooperation and national reconciliation. He pledged that efforts by the parliamentary blocs, the Presidency Council and the Council of Ministers would continue.

He said, "We are building a new country for Arabs, Kurds, Chaldeans, Assyrians, the religious and the secular, for all sects and ethnicities and we are pleased that you are joining us and showing solidarity with our cause."

Dr Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, Speaker of the Council of Representatives (Iraq's parliament), said, "We ask for the support of our Arab brothers as we face internal, regional and international economic and political challenges. While we continue to fight against terrorism we also focus on human rights, civil society and economic development."

In a meeting yesterday at the Kurdistan National Assembly, Dr Mashhadani called for the governments of Arab countries to more actively support Iraq's reconstruction and development efforts. Few Arab countries currently maintain embassies in Baghdad or full diplomatic relations with Iraq.

Mr Abdulhadi Al-Majali, Presdient of the AIPU, welcomed the assembled parliamentary delegates and expressed his hope that the conference would help forge strong ties between the assembled countries. Mr Nuraddin Boshkuj, Secretary General of the AIPU, thanked President Talabani, President Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government for hosting the conference and welcomed the delegates to the "beautiful city of Erbil."

Also attending the opening session at Erbil Convention Centre were Kurdistan Region President Masoud Barzani; Kurdistan Region Vice President; Speaker of the Kurdistan National Assembly and his Deputy; two Deputy Speakers of the Iraqi Council of Representatives; the KRG's Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, and members of the diplomatic community.

This 50th session of the 13th AIPU conference will run until 14 March. Representatives from 18 Arab countries are taking part. The AIPU conference meets once every two years to deal with common issues and to adopt and amends the union's statutes.

Iraqi leaders urge support at Erbil Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union conference | Iraq Updates

Ministry allocates ID 3 Trillion For Provinces

Planning ministry specified ID 3,501,174 trillion for the provinces containing the investment program for the year 2008.

A source at the ministry said that the amounts delivered among the provinces as ID 128,510 Billion for Nineveh, ID 81,500 Billion for Kirkuk and ID 75,410 Billion for Daiala province.

He added that they specified ID 158,508 Billion for Anbar province, ID 833,759,515 Trillion for Baghdad province, ID 123,134 Billion for Babel province, ID 177,645 Billion for Karbala' province, ID 77,372 Billion for Wassit province, ID 94,801 Billion for Saladin province, ID 115,410 Billion for Najaf province, ID 75,913 Billion for Diwaniya province, ID 39,216 Billion for Muthana province, ID 106,274,345 Billion for Dhiqar province, ID 102,243 Billion for Maysan province, while ID 311,479 Billion for Basra province.

Ministry allocates ID 3 Trillion For Provinces | Iraq Updates

Fires swallow six fuel tankers in Mosul

Spokesperson for Ninewa Police Command said on Tuesday that six fuel tankers have been totally devastated in an explosion in the province.

"An explosive device, cohered by unknowns on one of the fuel tankers, exploded on Tuesday evening at Al-Gayiara intersection, south of Mosul city," Khalid Abdul-Sattar told Aswat al-Iraq – Voices of Iraq – (VOI).

"Six fuel tankers have been totally devastated in the engendered fires, and three drivers were wounded," he added.

Abdul-Sattar did not reveal any further details.

Mosul, capital city of Ninewa province, is 405 km north of Baghdad.

Fires swallow six fuel tankers in Mosul | Iraq Updates

Talks on Future US-Iraq Relations Begin in Baghdad

US and Iraqi Officials began talks on Tuesday on agreements to govern future relations between the two countries and the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq, the U.S. embassy and Iraqi Foreign Ministry said.

Neither Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki nor U.S. ambassador Ryan Crocker attended the meeting at the Foreign Ministry inside the heavily fortified "Green Zone" government and diplomatic compound in central Baghdad.

"We've been having talks today between two negotiating teams," U.S. embassy spokesman Phil Reeker said.

Reeker did not say when Maliki and Crocker might begin formal talks on the pact.

The talks will focus on security and future U.S. military, diplomatic and political relations between Baghdad and Washington, as well as economic and cultural ties.

Iraq's Foreign Ministry said in a statement the talks would aim to "find a basis for long-term friendly relations between both countries, including a temporary agreement for the presence of American forces in Iraq".

"The talks will be based on the mutual interests and respectful exchanges between the two countries," the statement said.

The substance of the pact has become a politically charged issue in Washington, with members of Congress protesting against the administration's intention to negotiate the future relationship with Baghdad and saying they should be consulted.

Democrats say the agreement on U.S. forces could lock the United States into a long-term military presence in Iraq. U.S. President George W. Bush's administration says it is a routine measure to govern the legal status of U.S. troops.

The talks were to have begun last month. U.S. and Iraqi officials in Baghdad said they hope to reach an agreement by July, well before the next U.S. president is elected on Nov. 4.

"These negotiations will continue until they are finalised in the summer of this year," the Iraqi Foreign Ministry said.

U.S. forces operate in Iraq under a United Nations mandate that expires at the end of 2008. Iraq does not want that mandate extended, so the two governments must agree guidelines to allow U.S. forces to remain beyond the end of this year.

PUKmedia :: English - Talks on Future US-Iraq Relations Begin in Baghdad

Bush: US Vote won't Shape Iraq Withdrawal

US President George W. Bush on Tuesday promised cheering supporters that he would not risk "reversible" gains in Iraq with a troop withdrawal plan tied to the November US elections.

"I want to assure you -- just like I assure military families and the troops -- the politics of 2008 is not going to enter into my calculation, it is the peace of years to come that will enter into my calculation," he pledged to a Christian broadcasters association.

Bush made no mention of just-begun talks in Baghdad aimed at forging a long-term security partnership deal between the United States and Iraq by July, well before the US president's term ends in January 2009.

The president's Democratic foes have denounced the potential pact as an effort to tie his successor's hands. The White House and Iraqi officials say it is necessary because the UN mandate for the US presence expires at year's end.

Bush, his approval ratings slumped at near-record lows, pointed to US troop draw-downs scheduled to occur by July and denied that political pressure was playing any role in US force levels in war-torn Iraq.

"They're not coming home based upon defeat, or based upon opinion polls, or based upon focus groups, or based upon politics, they're coming home because we're successful," he said, to thunderous applause.

Bush's speech here to the National Religious Broadcasters was billed as the first in a public relations offensive leading up to an early April progress report from the top US military and diplomatic officials in Iraq.

"The gains in Iraq are tenuous, they're reversible, and they're fragile and there is much more work to be done. This enemy is resilient" he warned ahead of the testimony from General David Petraeus and US Ambassador Ryan Crocker.

"I will carefully consider their recommendations," on US troop levels, said Bush, who ordered some 30,000 more US forces to Iraq in January 2007 in an escalation widely known as a military "surge."

"I strongly believe the surge is working and so do the Iraqis," he said, pointing to lower rates of sectarian killings and setbacks for members of Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda terrorist network.

Democrats hope to harness deep US public anger at the war -- now on the eve of entering its sixth year -- to recapture the White House and widen their majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives.

But Bush mounted an unapologetic defense of the March 2003 US-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein, which turned into an open-ended occupation currently comprising some 162,000 US troops.

"The decision to remove Saddam Hussein was the right decision early in my presidency. It is the right decision in this point in my presidency, and it will forever be the right decision," he said to thunderous, sustained applause.

Bush made no mention of his pre-war claims that Saddam possessed vast caches of weapons of mass destruction and close-enough ties to Al-Qaeda that he might pass his arsenal to the terrorists behind the September 11, 2001 attacks.

"The Iraqi people have begun to see what freedom offers. They've seen what the enemy plans. And they have chosen to stand on the side of freedom. And America stands with them," he said.

Bush's speech to a traditional support base for his Republicans came as fears about the US economy have trumped the war in Iraq as the top issue on US voters minds.

The National Religious Broadcasters official Internet site said the group has 1,400 members and "exists to represent the Christian broadcasters' right to communicate the Gospel of Jesus Christ to a lost and dying world."

PUKmedia :: English - Bush: US Vote won't Shape Iraq Withdrawal

Oil Prices Steady after Falling Back from Overnight Record near US$110

Oil prices held steady Wednesday after falling back from an overnight record near US$110 a barrel as a strengthening of the U.S. dollar weighed on crude futures.

The dollar rebounded Tuesday against major currencies after the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England announced that they were joining with other central banks to provide more relief in the credit crisis. The relief plan is seen as likely to remove pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates before its next meeting.

In Tokyo currency trading Wednesday, the greenback rose against the yen Wednesday to 103.06 yen after falling below 102 yen earlier this week. The prospect of a lower bias for more cuts in U.S. interest rate has helped to strengthen the currency.

The dollar's weakness has fueled much of oil's recent run-up, as investment funds seek a hedge in hard assets. Speculation that rising prices for oil and other commodities will offset the falling dollar has been the main drivers of oil's rally from US$87 a barrel in January.

Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose 1 cent to US$108.76 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday Wednesday in Singapore.

On Tuesday, crude futures settled at a record finish of US$108.75 a barrel, still up 85 cents on the day after falling back from an all-time trading high of US$109.72 a barrel.

Oil's growing strength has also come amid warnings that there were no signs of relief from high oil prices on the immediate horizon.

Two prominent forecasters warned Tuesday that brisk demand in China and other emerging markets is likely to offset any downturn in demand in the U.S.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency on Tuesday said high crude prices continue to chip away at oil consumption in the U.S. and other industrialized nations, but warned of continuing strong demand in China and other emerging markets.

The energy watchdog agency for the world's most industrialized nations slightly cut its projections for world oil demand this year, which it now sees at 87.5 million barrels a day, up 2 percent from 2007.

Separately, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday it expects a slowing economy and record high oil prices to hold U.S. oil demand growth to just 40,000 barrels a day in 2008, bringing daily consumption to 20.74 million barrels.

Traders were also eyeing the release of data later Wednesday that is expected to show U.S. petroleum stockpiles grew last week, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts.

The report is expected to show that U.S. crude oil stockpiles grew 1.6 million barrels, gasoline stockpiles grew 300,000 barrels, and stocks of distillates, which include diesel fuel and heating oil, fell 2 million barrels.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures lost 0.47 cent to US$2.991 a gallon (3.8 liters) while gasoline prices lost 0.56 cent to US$2.7205 a gallon. Natural gas futures lost 0.8 cent to US$9.992 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, Brent crude futures rose 6 cents to US$105.31 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

PUKmedia :: English - Oil Prices Steady after Falling Back from Overnight Record near US$110

There is a New Wheel Starts Turning

I have interviewed with Iraq President Jalal Talabani and spokesperson of Iraqi government Ali Dabbagh in Cankaya Residence. There is one point very clear. It looks like there is a new wheel starts turning about northern Iraq and PKK after the land operation of Turkey.

There is a comprehensive plan that is untitled yet. It starts with Ankara-Baghdad-Washington triangle with the inclusion of Erbil (Iraqi Regional Kurdistan Administration). President Talabani emphasizes to increase dialogue level between Ankara and Massoud Barzani and necessity to invite Nechirvan Barzani as well.

Multi-dimensional cease-fire press
It is important to state that the signs of raising dialogue level with Barzani that were made by Talabani, were not denied by Turkish side.

After the land-operation, is it possible for PKK to notice a cease-fire? Yes, it is. There are signals about a pressure of Baghdad, Washington and Erbil on PKK. Talabani has talked like confirming that: “Massoud Barzani repeatedly say the same thing. PKK leaves weapon or depart from Iraqi lands.”

Talabani said that, it is not possible to remove PKK in northern Iraq as using armed forces. Talabani: “however, it is possible to intern PKK in controlled zone and counteract it in this way. Please do not forget that, the USA has also no power to remove PKK in northern Iraq. There is a hard mountainous geography. In addition, there are Iran and Syria borders. What happened in Vietnam? Has Taliban been removed despite of the huge forces in Afghanistan? These things are not so easy.

We asked to Talabani, “Did you expect a Turkish land-operation?”

Talabani, “No, I did not expect.”

We asked him, “Did Turkey say anything that there will be no more operation?”

Talabani said, “No.”

We asked him, “What do you think about a new land-operation?
Talabani said, “I am a President of Iraq and I swore for land unity and peace of the country. Of course, I do not want a new operation.”

The best address is Massoud Barzani
Talabani has protected Barzani on his all emphasizes and repeatedly suggested a cooperation between Turkey and him. Actually, he means, “if you would like to paralyze PKK in northern Iraq, the best address is Kurdistan Regional Administration and Massoud Barzani.” Spokesperson of Iraqi Government Ali Dabbagh said followings about this subject: “Kurdistan Regional Administration is a part of Iraq according to the constitution. Increasing the level of relations does not mean to accept it separately. It is part of relation with Baghdad.”

The probability for civilian operation is increased
One point was also very important during our interviews. The probability for Erdogan government to press a button for solution of PKK and Kurdish problem (except military dimensions) is getting stronger. The committee of Talabani has this impression. I have had also the same impression during our talks in Residence.

We have asked Talabani; why not talk about PKK as a common enemy or common disaster. He said that, he has his own terminology about this. However, in other ways he emphasized his many previous talks about PKK as a disaster of both Kurds and Turkey. In addition, he has reminded that, Barzani talked about PKK as terror organization many years ago.

Thousands of Peshmerga died against PKK
Talabani: “do not forget, Barzani lost thousands of Peshmerga against PKK in 1990’s”.

We asked Talabani, “Is Apo still the leader of PKK?”
Talabani: “Exactly, if Apo wants, it happens.”

If both sides attach necessary importance to the new process, it may open a door about PKK and Kurdish problem...

PUKmedia :: English - There is a New Wheel Starts Turning

De Mistura: 2008 is Year of Iraq Sovereignty

Staffan De Mistura, the Representative of UN General Secretary emphasized, after meeting with Sayed Ali al-Sistani in Najaf, that 2008 will be the year of Iraq’s Sovereignty; he said “It was an honor for the UN and myself to meet al-Sistani and listen to his opinions, I also met Najaf governor and visited Imam Ali Tomb which is an expression of UN respect to this holy place.”

“His Eminence explained his view on the present and future situation in Iraq and the need for stability in this country, we highly respect this view” De Mistura added.

De Mistura stressed that this year will be the year of Iraq’s Sovereignty, the UN is here to help Iraq in this matter.

PUKmedia :: English - De Mistura: 2008 is Year of Iraq Sovereignty