Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 01/01/08 - 14/04/08

Originally Posted by Seaview

Continued.......

THE COMING ECONOMIC ORDER

The transfer of wealth is only in its early stages as oil prices are not going down anytime soon. This is a result of greed, not scarcity. While enjoying almost unlimited access to investment opportunities in the West, oil rich governments do not feel the need to reciprocate by opening their economies to foreign investment. The opposite is true: together owning 80 percent of the world’s reserves, they practice resource nationalism, stick to quotas and obstruct international companies from investing in their territories, limiting them to, at best, minority share. This is why Big Oil’s access to equity oil and gas reserves has been in constant decline for decades resulting in insufficient production of new oil. Exxon Corporation’s investment portfolio provides a revealing example. Despite the fact that more than three-quarters of global oil reserves are in the Middle East and Russia, only five percent of Exxon’s investments between 2000 and 2005 were in these two regions. This is not because of the company’s lack of interest in exploring there but rather due to the protectionism and restrictive business environment which exists in these regions.

What adds to the migration of wealth from the West is the mischief of non-state actors like al- Qaeda who wish to drive prices even higher through energy terrorism. Determined to weaken the Western economy the jihadists have made attacking oil, which they call “the provision line and the feeding to the artery of the life of the crusader's nation,” a central part of their plan. Over the past four years, attacks on oil facilities in Iraq have denied the global oil market 1-2 million barrels per day. Had this oil been in the market, the price per barrel would have easily dropped by $20-$25. For the U.S. and the EU, each an importer of roughly 12 million barrels a day, the terrorist premium alone costs $65-$85 billion a year. Had this money stayed in the West it would have been sufficient to cover Citigroup’s reported losses ten times over. Things could get much worse on this front if terrorists succeed in attacking one of Saudi Arabia’s mega-facilities, something that has already been attempted several times. In February 2006 suicide bombers drove trucks full of explosives into Abqaiq, the world’s largest oil processing facility, and in April 2007, scores of terrorists who had undergone flight training intending to crash planes into Saudi oil facilities were arrested.

The resulting transfer of wealth is already creating a structural shift in global economy, causing oil importers economic dislocations such as swollen trade deficits, loss of jobs, sluggish economic growth, inflation and, if prices continue to soar, inevitable recessions.

A successful attack against the Kingdom’s oil sector—the idea that jihadists are prepared to sacrifice their lives in order to hurt the West economically is in itself hair-raising— could easily send oil to above $200 a barrel for an extended period of time, causing incalculable economic losses and a far greater transfer of wealth to Middle Eastern governments. No doubt perpetual high oil prices will create a new economic world order, shifting the economic balance between OPEC and the West in the direction of those who own the precious commodity.

Robert Zubrin points out that in 1972 the U.S. spent $4 billion for oil imports, an amount that equaled to 1.2% of our defense budget. In 2006, it paid $260 billion which equals to half of our defense budget. Over the same period, Saudi oil revenues grew from $2.7 billion to $200 billion and with it their ability to fund radical Islam. In the years to come this economic imbalance will grow by leaps and bounds. To understand the degree of the forces at play it is instructive to visualize the scale of OPEC’s potential wealth in comparison to the consuming countries: imagine that OPEC members are corporations and a barrel of oil is a share. At $100 oil, OPEC’s market capitalization based on its proven reserves stands today at roughly $92 trillion. This is about half of the world’s total financial assets or almost twice the market capitalization of all the companies traded in the world’s top 27 stock markets. Saudi Arabia’s oil alone is worth $27 trillion, seven times the total value of all the companies traded on the London Stock Exchange. If one adds the worth of OPEC’s huge gas reserves as well as additional oil reserves that have not yet been discovered, the disparity more than doubles. If oil prices climb to $200, as Venezuela’s president Hugo Chavez recently warned, the disparity would double again. Such monumental wealth enables unprecedented buying power of the oil countries.

For demonstration sake, at $100 oil OPEC could potentially buy Bank of America with two months worth of revenue, ***** Computers in two weeks and General Motors in just 6 days. It would take less than three years of production for OPEC to own a 20 percent (which essentially ensures a voting block in most corporations) of every S&P 500 company. Of course, takeovers of such magnitude are unlikely, at least in the foreseeable future, but what is clear about the new economic reality is that while the economic power of America and its allies is constantly eroding, OPEC’s ‘share’ price is on a solid upward trajectory.

At $100 oil, OPEC could potentially buy Bank of America in two months worth of production, ***** Computers in two weeks and GM in just 6 days. It would take less than three years of production for OPEC to own 20% (which essentially ensures a voting block in most corporations) of every S&P 500 company.

With high oil prices here to stay and with the International Energy Agency projecting that “we are ending up with 95 percent of the world relying for its economic well being on decisions made by five or six countries in the Middle East,” it is hard to see how OPEC’s massive buying power would not upset the West’s economic and political sovereignty. This is particularly true in light of the prospects of future bailouts in sectors other than banking should the U.S. economy continue to melt. As populations in Western countries age and dwindle, it is only a matter of time before the under funded healthcare and retirement systems begin to face similar liquidity problems. With soaring oil prices, Middle Eastern governments will have the ability to buy any global company, create panic in markets at a whim and to increasingly use financial holding as a means of extortion and overt intimidation if and when political differences emerge.

To date, the influx of petrodollars has not translated into overbearing presence of government agents in corporate boardrooms. In fact, many of the sovereign wealth finds buy holdings under the 5 percent benchmark that triggers regulatory scrutiny and forego board seats. But at the current rate of investment and a few more years of three-digit-oil foreign governments might be more willing to translate their wealth into power, dictating business practices, vetoing deals, appointing officers sympathetic to their governments and dismissing those who are critical of them. The “fair and balanced” Fox News provides a glimpse into what stock ownership can buy. Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, whose $10 million check was rejected by Mayor Rudy Giuliani because Alwaleed had suggested that the 9-11 attacks were the result of America’s policies in the Middle East, now holds 5.46 percent of Fox’s parent company News Corp. Two years ago, the prince boasted that he had personally called News Corp’s chairman Rupert Murdoch to complain about Fox's coverage of the riots in France. Since the riots were carried out by Muslims the network rightly labeled them as “Muslim riots.” Alwaleed said he “picked up the phone and called Murdoch to tell him these are not Muslim riots, these are riots out of poverty. Within 30 minutes the title was changed from 'Muslim riots' to 'civil riots’.” The financial troubles of international media conglomerates promise much more of this. Last year, with mainstream news organizations in the U.S. reporting falling earnings and downbeat financial assessments, information ministers, tycoons and other officials of the 57- nation Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) gathered in Saudi Arabia where they were urged to buy stakes in Western media outlets to help change “anti-Muslim” attitudes around the world.

The gradual penetration of Shariah (Islamic Law) into the West’s corporate world is another sign of our time. Islamic countries operating on the basis of compliance with Shariah have strict guidelines of economic conduct. Banks and investment houses are employing a new breed of executive--the Chief Shariah Officer (CSO)--whose sole job is to ensure compliance with Islamic law and hence attract more business from the Muslim investors. Over time, such compliance could put pressure on companies not consistent with Islamic principles to become more “Islamic.” Imams sitting on Shariah boards could be pressured to withhold their approval of any business dealing directly or indirectly connected with countries or institutions that are offensive to Islam. The first signs of this can be seen in China, where pork, while offensive to Muslims, is a central part of the cuisine. Sharia compliant funds invested in property force their tenets to limit the sale of pork and alcohol. “I need to go through each tenant's balance sheet to ensure that the non-Sharia elements are at an acceptable level,” said one trust manager.

To be sure, the U.S. bears the sole responsibility for its current economic predicament and it would be a gross injustice to blame the Chinese, from whom we borrow one billion dollars per day or the oil countries, from whom we buy oil for another billion, for our plight. After all, Americans are known for their exuberant spending, gas guzzling and low saving rates. With net foreign debt in access of $3 trillion and with annual current account deficit of $600-$700 billion a year the U.S is the world’s largest debtor nation, desperately dependent on foreign capital to keep the economy afloat. We are clearly reaping what we have sown. But economic considerations aside there is a war to be won here and in order for us to prevail we need not only effective militaries, robust diplomacy, determined populace and strong convictions but also an economic program other than the one employed today which is, in essence, enrichment of those who wish us ill.

It is hard to see how OPEC’s massive buying power would not upset the West’s economic and political sovereignty. This is particularly true in light of the prospects of future bailouts in sectors other than banking should the U.S. economy continue to melt.

The Cutting Edge News

is this. Natural disasters caused by un-natural greed, has no bounderies and no favored nations nor consideration for assets by any or all of these nations.

A new economy is in existence in the minds of many investors, it too will not be a national endeavor but more of a result of the lop sided progress that now exist.

Happiness will tearfully demand attention, lack of love, and spiritually will be scarce and the economy will, probably to late, bow.

Does anyone think that this world can progress to any good or to a fork in the blurred road with a bad choice and a good choice to consider, with these types of catalysts?... Power, Greed, and Control. Not gonna happen!
pm me sometimes to ask or tell me privately your thoughts
maceman

Machines designed to turn trash into electricity headed to Iraq

Machines designed by Purdue University scientists and defense contractors will soon be shipped to Iraq to turn trash discarded by American troops into electricity.

The two 4-ton biomass refineries can each run for 20 hours on a ton of trash, producing enough power to light a small village. They are part of the Army's push to reduce troops' diesel fuel use in Iraq, where convoys are frequently targeted by insurgents.

The refineries are designed to burn many different types of trash and to fit inside a standard shipping container.

The machines will be tested in the combat zone for six months. They'll face windblown dust and grit, 120-degree temperatures and the risk of breakdowns when they arrive in the Baghdad area in early May.

WAVE 3 TV Louisville, KY | Machines designed to turn trash into electricity headed to Iraq

Update.......

China Bids to Revive Prewar Iraqi Oil Deal

Summary
China National Petroleum Corp. could become the first oil company to sign one of Iraq's new long-term service agreements if it can finalize terms with the Iraqi oil ministry, a senior Iraqi oil official told International Oil Daily this week. The deal would be for the Al-Ahdab oil field in southern Iraq, for which the Chinese giant signed -- but never implemented -- a production sharing agreement in 1997.

China Bids to Revive Prewar Iraqi Oil Deal

Group of Iraqis asks UN to take over
Iraqi tribal leaders, former politicians, intellectuals appeal to UN to take control of Iraq from US.

A group of Iraqi tribal leaders, former politicians and intellectuals appealed Wednesday to the United Nations to take control of Iraq in a move they say would help US troops leave the beleaguered country.

Both the US administration and the Baghdad government are unlikely to endorse the request, which was addressed to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and delivered to the Cairo offices of the organization.

"We believe that the only opportunity left for Iraq to be saved from a dark, but not inevitable future, is to engage the international community represented by the United Nations," the letter said. "Such a step will allow the American troops to leave and the occupation to be brought to its end."

The group's coordinators include Adeeb al-Jadir, Ahmed Al-Haboubi and Nouri Abdel Razak Hussein, politicians overthrown in 1968 when Saddam Hussein's Baath party came to power and long part of the liberal anti-regime opposition prior to the US-led invasion in 2003.

The UN dramatically curtailed its operations in Iraq after an August 2003 suicide attack killed its representative and scores of others. The United States has been pushing for an expanded UN role in Iraq but that did not include supervising the country.

The Iraqi group said the world body should supervise a new security plan to restore order during a transitional period and prepare for new elections of a government to replace Nouri al-Maliki's troubled cabinet.

Representatives for the campaign will travel to the UN headquarters in New York to seek support from key members, said al-Haboubi, a former government minister.

"We are also ready to discuss our proposals with US officials," he said.
The men said the petition was signed by dozens of Iraqi dignitaries and they had scores of supporters in Iraq who preferred to rename anonymous for know to avoid harassment.

Meanwhile, the Iraqi government on Wednesday announced a committee formed to explore ways citizens could sue US forces involved in "unjustified killings," according to the prime minister's office.

The US military did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Group of Iraqis asks UN to take over | Iraq Updates

Oil Prices to Collapse by Year's End

"We are going to be hit by recession, we are going to be hit by inflation...," said Kuwaiti oil industry analyst Kamel A Al-Harami on the likely correction in the oil market which hit a record high of $94.78 per barrel yesterday. Kuwait stands as the fourth largest holder of oil reserves in the world maintaining about 10 percent of the world's total oil reserves. The state currently produces just under 2.5 million barrels per day and has a long-term goal of increasing production to 4 million bpd by 2020. In the short-term, the state has earmarked 2010 for an increase to 3 million bpd.

Al-Harami speaking exclusively to Kuwait Times yesterday, explained the inevitability of an oil market price correction by the end of 2008 saying, "Definitely there will have to be a correction... Nobody can sustain such high prices, whether it is the $10 a gallon in Europe or $5 and $6 in the USA -- it is not sustainable." He added, "...most likely anything that goes up quickly comes down also, so I see oil prices coming down in the near future. I cannot tell you a specific day, but eventually it will come down and it will crash. It will crash by all means because it did not take anything for oil prices to reach $107, $108, $109...or even the $100 level..." He stated that when the correction comes, "It is going to hit hard the economies of everyone, whether it is the oil producers or the oil consumers.

But as international oil hit a record $107 per barrel on Monday, Kuwaiti oil is sharing in the boom and on a powerful upward price trend. "We are on our way to 100 dollars per barrel," said Al-Harami who clarified that when international oil reaches $110 or $111, Kuwaiti crude will go to $100 a barrel." In speculating a timeframe for the expected increase, Al-Harami stated, "At the moment, it could happen any time now. If the dollar continues its decline and the people and financial investors cannot find a venues to dispose off their weak dollar currencies then they have to go and speculate on crude oil, on gold investments or precious metals so they can just grab anything to invest in rather than the weaker US dollar." Explaining the dollars' effect on oil prices, Al-Harami said, "The price of crude oil is going up not because there is something wrong in the fundamentals of the oil industry, and there is nothing wrong with the supply and demand balance. What is happening is that the weaker dollar is leaning oil prices upwards." The US dollar fell to a low of $1.5464 against the Euro on Friday.

Kuwait is set to embark on oil industry infrastructure improvements and development projects amounting to $51 billion over the next five years. Kuwait Times asked Al-Harami if such large-scale projects are wise at a time when Kuwait is experiencing increased prices in a variety of goods. International oil companies are taking 60 dollars a barrel as a benchmark to devise current and future projects, so whenever prices go above $60 a barrel it makes an economic transformation therefore it is still viable and professional to go and invest (in the oil infrastructure sector)," he answered, adding, "however your concern is that the cost for materials and other things will go up as well and therefore it is wise to go and invest today rather than wait until tomorrow.

With Kuwait having only recently discovered free gas fields, Al-Harami said of the state's gas resources, "Inshallah, I think we are going to have gas production, free gas available to us by the end of this month." However, he noted the need to continue importing gas, "I think we still need to import gas from Iran, Qatar, and Iraq because our consumption is increasing substantially..." Kuwait Times asked Al-Harami what he thought to be a reasonable price per barrel for Kuwaiti crude to which he replied, ". ..$70 or $80 per barrel...$70 would be enough.

Oil Prices to Collapse by Year's End | Iraq Updates

Iraqi president underlines importance of developing ties with S.Korea

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani asserted on Tuesday the necessity of developing relations between Iraq and South Korea.

"The president hailed efforts exerted by South Korea in Iraq's Kurdistan region in reconstruction fields," Talabani's office said in a statement received by Aswat al-Iraq - Voices of Iraq - (VOI).

"Talabani held a meeting with an economic delegation from S.Korea, during which he reiterated his assertion on the importance of developing relations between the two countries," the statement added.

"The delegation reviewed all plans and projects to be implemented by S.Korean companies in the region in various domains," it said.

Iraqi president underlines importance of developing ties with S.Korea | Iraq Updates

Barham Salih and Ryan Croker Discuss Iraq- US Strategic Relations

Today the Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister, Barham Ahmed Salih, met with the US Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Croker, in Baghdad.

They discussed the bilateral economic ties and steps towards starting negotiations on the long- term relationships between both countries.

PUKmedia :: English - Barham Salih and Ryan Croker Discuss Iraq- US Strategic Relations

520 billion ID to develop Baghdad's roads

Baghdad mayor announced on Thursday that 520 billion Iraqi Dinars (ID) have been allocated to developing the streets of Baghdad.

Sabir Al-Essawi said in a press release issued by Baghdad Mayoralty, and received by Aswat al-Iraq – Voices of Iraq – (VOI), "The Mayoralty devoted 520 billion ID to developing the roads in Baghdad, to facilitate transportation in the city that witnesses traffic jams."

Al-Essawi added, "A number of bridges and tunnels will be opened this year, in addition to three new highways."

On March 12, 2008, Baghdad Mayoralty opened a bridge that links the two neighborhoods of Al-Kadhimiya and Al-Hurriya, on the western side of the city. The total cost of the bridge was 17 billion ID.

Aswat Aliraq

Significant drop in the demand for the dollar

Demand for the dollar dipped sharply in the Iraqi Central Bank's auction on Thursday, registering at $55.815 million compared to $105.365 million on Wednesday.

"The demand hit $23.505 million in cash and $32.310 million in money transfers outside the country, all covered by the bank at an exchange rate of 1,209 Iraqi dinars per dollar, unchanged for the fourth session in a row," according to the central bank's daily bulletin which was received by Aswat al-Iraq- Voices of Iraq- (VOI).

None of the 14 banks that participated in the auction offered to sell dollars.

Speaking to VOI, Ali al-Yasseri, a trader, said that remittances significantly dropped during the session leading the overall size of demand to significantly drop."

The Iraqi Central Bank runs a daily auction from Sunday to Thursday.

Aswat Aliraq

Maliki stresses improving electricity supplies

In a meeting in his office on Thursday with experts from the two Iraqi Ministries of Oil and Electricity, Premier Nouri Al-Maliki repeated his emphasis on the necessity of improving and enhancing power production and transfer sectors, protecting major power generation plants, and taking all the required measures to prevent any aggression against electricity sectors' staffers.

"During the meeting, the issue of rehabilitating borders entry points, to be able to receive fuel tankers coming from the neighboring countries, has been discussed," said a release issued by the Premier's office and received by Aswat al-Iraq – Voices of Iraq – (VOI).

The release referred "The meeting also discussed the performance mechanism of 'General Electric' in Iraq, and starting two consultant offices of that company in Baghdad and Basra."

Maliki ordered, according to the release, that "security forces should provide the required protection for oil pipelines and power transmission lines, in a process that coordinates between the two Iraqi Ministries of Interior and Defense, and Multi National Forces (MNF) in Iraq."

Aswat Aliraq