Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 01/01/08 - 14/04/08

Iraq Oil Deals with Majors unlikely until Summer

Iraq is unlikely to sign technical support contracts with oil majors for work on some of its biggest oilfields until the summer, a few months later than Baghdad's target, oil company executives said on Thursday.

around 500,000 barrels per day within a year, adding more than 20 percent to current production of 2.27 million bpd.

Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani said last month that he hoped the contracts would be signed in March.

But negotiators have yet to thrash out details of the scope of the work, payment, and the link to long-term development of the fields that oil majors crave, executives said.

"I should think it will be mid-year at the earliest," one oil executive familiar with the negotiations told Reuters.

Iraqi officials and representatives from oil majors BP , Chevron , Exxon Mobil , Royal Dutch Shell and Total begin a new round of negotiations on the two-year contracts in Amman, Jordan on Friday.

The oil majors have jostled for position for years to gain access to Iraq's oil reserves, the world's third-largest, if and when the country opens up the oil sector to foreign investment.

A vital oil law that would set the framework for foreign oil companies' involvemenmt has been stalled in parliament for over a year. The enhanced technical service contracts are part of stop-gap measures to boost output until the law is passed.

Even so, majors want to see a link between the service contracts and future involvement in the fields before they go ahead. Some of the majors will be remoulding their business models by taking on short-term service contracts, rather than long-term production deals.

UNCERTAINTY

"It is not clear yet how that long-term link can be established, nor what it would be," said another executive.

Majors were concerned that after two years servicing the fields they could be underbid in future competitive tenders for long-term contracts, the executive said. They would at least like the right to match the best bid in any auction, he added.

Another concern was whether any link established now would be honoured if Iraq's government were to change.

Talks in Amman on some of the deals were closer to completion than others, with BP and Exxon's the least advanced, one source said.

BP was negotiating for the southern Rumaila field. Chevron and Total together were looking at the West Qurna oilfield, while Exxon was eyeing Zubail, the executives said.

Shell is looking at the northern Kirkuk field. It is also looking at the southern Maysan field with BHP Billiton.

Each of the five deals was expected to boost Iraqi output by around 100,000 bpd.

Another factor complicating the deals is how the majors can undertake the work. Due to the lack of security in the country, they are unable to send in their own staff and must work through making recommendations to Iraq's state operating companies.

The contracts give the majors a bigger role than they previously had in project management of field maintenance and development.

The majors have for years provided field studies, technical assistance and training on the same fields as they look to curry favour with Baghdad.

Iraq oil deals with majors unlikely until summer - Yahoo! Singapore News

Iraq's April OSP cut for Europe but raised for US

Iraq has cut the official selling price (OSP) of its Basra Light crude for April loading by $2.20 a barrel to European buyers and raised the price to the United States, an Iraqi oil official said on Thursday.

The April Basra Light price for European buyers was set at BFOE minus $6.25 versus minus $4.05 in March. The price of April Kirkuk crude to Europe was cut by $1.45 to BFOE minus $4.70.

For customers in the United States, the Basra Light price for April was raised by 60 cents to second month WTI minus $7.05 from minus $7.65 in March.

The April Kirkuk price to the US was cut by $1.05 to first-line WTI minus $5.65, versus minus $4.60 in March.

For Asian buyers, Iraq cut the price of Basra Light to a discount of $2.40 to the average of Oman/Dubai quotes, down 90 cents from March, the official said.

Meanwhile, Iran has cut its official selling prices (OSPs) for April crude supplies to Asia, as expected, on the back of weakening fuel oil prices, a source at National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC) said on Thursday.

The Iranian OSPs were seen likely to fall for Asian customers after Saudi Arabia cut the prices of its informal benchmark Arab Light and Arab Medium crudes. Iran cut the Iran Light OSP by 15 cents, slightly less than Saudi Arabia's 20-cent cut for rival Arab Light to Oman/Dubai +1.05.

NIOC also slashed the Iran Heavy and Forozan OSPs by $1.01 a barrel.

Gulfnews: Iraq's April OSP cut for Europe but raised for US

Iraqi Troops May Move to Reclaim Basra’s Port

Several senior Iraqi officials said on Wednesday that the government might soon deploy Iraqi Army troops to seize control of this city’s decrepit but vital port from politically connected militias known more for corruption and inciting terrorism than for their skill in moving freight.

The officials refused to disclose many details but appeared to suggest that this entire southern port city, whose streets have been increasingly torn by violence as the militias vie for power, would be affected. No specific timetable was given for the move.

“There must be a very strong military presence in Basra to eradicate these militias,” said Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih, who led a delegation of government officials to a conference here to promote investment in the port.

As Iraq’s only major gateway to the Persian Gulf, the port is critical for the nation’s economy but is beset by labor problems and is in serious need of dredging and modernization.

Mr. Salih declined to give particulars, but when asked if the central government’s plan to seize control in Basra involved a troop buildup, he said, “Definitely so.” He also said Western troops would be involved, raising the possibility that the effort could parallel the American troop increase in Baghdad that has been credited in part with reducing violence there.

But, Mr. Salih said, Iraqi troops would lead the effort in Basra.

Iraq’s national security adviser, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, was more direct, telling the conference that “we will launch a campaign to rid us of the bad elements.” He blamed the ascendance of the militias on what he called “the weakness of the local government” as local officials sat uncomfortably in the audience.

Mr. Rubaie later said in an interview that the central government had effectively given the provincial governor, Muhammad al-Waeli, an ultimatum to combat the militias in the port and elsewhere in the city or lose the support of Baghdad.

But Mr. Waeli suggested in an interview that Basra might not be ready for the reforms sought by the central government. “Rubaie doesn’t know exactly what is happening in the ports,” Mr. Waeli said.

Shiite militias controlled by Mr. Waeli’s political party, Fadhila, are widely considered to be in control of the dock workers’ union. The governor said, however, that the real problem was that the central government had ignored Basra. “So we blame the central government for what has happened,” Mr. Waeli said of problems at the port.

The main port, called Um Qasr, is about 30 miles south of the Basra city center and is connected to the Persian Gulf by a waterway littered with nearly 300 sunken navigation hazards, including 82 large ships, said Michael J. McCormick, the transportation attaché at the United States Embassy in Baghdad, who was along on the trip.

The port is divided into a northern and a southern section, both of them sprawling, Mr. McCormick said.

The northern part is “a usable port, but it’s not an efficient port,” he said, with mostly small cranes typical of the 1960s, a militia-controlled union that will load and unload ships only eight hours a day — rather than the 24 hours a day typical of modern ports — and a general air of seediness.

At first, large stacks of some 8,000 shipping containers on the docks seem to indicate that a brisk commerce is taking place at the north port. But Mr. McCormick pointed out that most of the containers were empty. Ships leave the containers, taking a heavy financial loss, because dock workers take too long to hoist the empty containers back onto the ships, he said.

He added that the southern part was essentially derelict and would be opened to international investors in hopes that it could be built almost from scratch into a modern facility. With all those problems, he said, progress at Um Qasr would require physical work like dredging and clearing wrecks, security improvements and general economic development.

And indeed, part of the rationale for the conference was to highlight $2.1 billion in long-term, low-interest loans that Japan has agreed to give Iraq for a series of reconstruction projects, many of them in the south, including $254 million for dredging and other rehabilitation work at the port.

Kansuke Nagaoka, minister-counselor at the Japanese Embassy, who was also along on the trip, said the national importance of the project was its greatest selling point. “As many people have pointed out, Um Qasr is not only for Basra but for the entire country,” Mr. Nagaoka said.

But before any of that work is likely to have an impact, the entrenched powers on the docks must be subdued, Iraqi officials at the conference said. And that almost certainly means military action involving the Iraqi Ministry of Defense, often referred to here in shorthand as M.O.D.

“We have a plan that is already set by M.O.D. and the prime minister’s office, and we’re going to implement it in a scientific way,” said Gen. Mohan Fahad al-Fraji, the top defense official here, and the one who would carry out the plan.

The additional forces called for in that plan, General Fraji said, “are not going to control the port itself, but they’re going to provide security.”
Mr. Rubaie suggested that the plan would be carried out with a vigor commensurate with the stubbornness that the militias have shown in holding their territory on the waterfront.

“Whoever gets in the way will be dealt with swiftly, decisively and with no mercy,” Mr. Rubaie said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/13/wo...in&oref=slogin

Update.......

Iraq PM Advisor: Majors Will Accept Service Contracts - Report

International oil majors would be willing to settle for service contracts in known oil fields in Iraq, the chairman of the advisory committee to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said Thursday.

Speaking in an interview with Arab Oil and Gas Magazine, Thamir Abbas Ghadhban, who is a former oil minister, said he was certain international oil companies would accept service contracts...for already discovered oil fields " in view of their geological characteristics, their very great potential, their low production costs and the current and future level of oil prices."

While production-sharing contracts, or PSCs, wouldn't be considered an option by anyone "of sane mind," for these oil fields, the government would have to decide if they were appropriate in areas under explorations - including the Western Desert region, Ghadhban said.

The exploration risks for companies involved in areas such as the Western Desert are compounded by the fact that that even basic infrastructure is practically nonexistent.

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB), BP PLC (BP), ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX) are among the majors expected to sign Technical Support Agreements with Iraq over the coming few weeks.

The Iraqi Oil Ministry has said more than 70 companies are lined up to sign service contracts over the next 18 months.

The contracts, which allow the companies develop a country's oil industry in exchange for oil or a much smaller percentage of revenue than when production is shared, are seen as a stop gap until a national oil law governing the distribution of Iraq's oil resources is agreed between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government.

Attempts to ratify the law have been hampered by political and ethnical complications in the region.

"I think there is still the possibility of compromise on the text. The differences between the two sides are not huge," Ghadhban said.

However he didn't give a time frame, saying it wasn't possible to predict when the such an agreement might be reached.

"In the current situation in Iraq, delays in the decision-making process are frequent," he added.

Iraq PM Advisor: Majors Will Accept Service Contracts -Report

KBR Announces Completion of Iraqi Oil Transfer Platform Facilities

KBR (NYSE:KBR) today announced that it has successfully completed construction on facilities for the Coalition Forces on the Iraqi Oil Transfer Platforms in the Persian Gulf. The project was a task order under KBR's Contingency Construction Capabilities (CONCAP) contract with the Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC).

The contract stipulated that all work, including the design, procurement and construction of the facilities, be completed within six months. KBR completed the construction phase in 120 days during the height of the winter storm season, which presented significant challenges. The successfully completed facilities include berthing, restrooms, galleys and support infrastructure to include power generation and distribution, fresh water production and distribution and fire protection systems for the facilities. Berthing units were designed to be more comfortable with private entrances to adjoining restrooms. The project achieved more than 150,000 man-hours onboard vessels, ashore and on the platform without any recordable injuries.

"KBR was able to overcome significant design and logistical challenges and successfully completed the work on time, despite rough seas and an extreme range of both hot and cold weather," said Richard Graves, Vice President of KBR's G & I Design and Construction unit. "This project highlights our ability to safely deliver a quality product to our customer, even under the most adverse conditions."

KBR is a global engineering, construction and services company supporting the energy, petrochemicals, government services and civil infrastructure sectors. The company offers a wide range of services through its Downstream, Government and Infrastructure, Services, Technology, Upstream and Ventures business segments. For more information, visit KBR, Inc.: A Leading Global Engineering, Construction and Services Company..

KBR Announces Completion of Iraqi Oil Transfer Platform Facilities

U.S., Iraq discuss post-mandate ties
The formal talks involve blueprints for diplomatic, economic and security relations and the American troop presence after Dec. 31.

The United States and Iraq have opened negotiations on a blueprint for relations after the U.N. mandate for the presence of American-led troops in Iraq expires at the end of the year, officials said Tuesday.

The two sides confirmed that their representatives met at Iraq's Foreign Ministry, but did not provide details about who was present or what was discussed.

An Iraqi Foreign Ministry statement described the meeting as the start of formal talks, but U.S. officials sought to play down its significance. U.S. Embassy spokeswoman Mirembe Nantongo said that preparatory discussions, which have been going on for weeks, had "naturally evolved into the negotiations themselves" and that Tuesday's talks were a "continuation of that process."

U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki did not attend the session.

The proposed deal is a contentious issue in Washington, where Democrats have accused the Bush administration of trying to commit the U.S. to a long-term presence in Iraq before the next president takes office.

White House officials say they want to establish the basis for a sustainable policy here, but maintain that this will not tie the hands of the next administration.

"We don't want the next president to come in here facing a crisis in which our mandate is called into question," an administration official told reporters in January. "Is this going to lock in the next president in anyway? The answer, as we see it now, is absolutely not."

White House officials believe the agreement won't rise to the level of a treaty and won't need Senate approval, a position that has also provoked criticism from Democrats.

Officials say the talks will focus on two deals. One, known as a strategic framework agreement, will provide a blueprint for diplomatic, economic and security relations based on mutual sovereignty. The other, known as a status of forces agreement, will provide a legal basis for the presence of U.S. troops after the United Nations mandate expires Dec. 31.

White House officials say the latter will not set force levels or establish permanent bases in Iraq.

The two sides have released few details about what they hope to get out of the deals, which are being negotiated behind closed doors.

A statement issued Tuesday by the Foreign Ministry said only that Iraq hopes to establish a framework for "long-term cooperation and friendship . . . including an agreement on the temporary presence of U.S. forces on the basis of mutual interests and respect for the sovereignty of both countries."

U.S. officials have said they will not seek the same blanket protections currently enjoyed by private security contractors in Iraq, nor will they necessarily ask to extend U.S. freedom to conduct military operations at will. But they will want to preserve the right to pursue suspected terrorists here.

Another senior administration official noted in January that Iraqi security forces' effectiveness varies from region to region and said the agreement must have "enough flexibility for us to adapt based on conditions on the ground."

U.S. forces say attacks are down more than 60% nationwide since a troop buildup was completed in June, but that the security gains are fragile.

President Bush and Maliki signed a nonbinding declaration of principles late last year in which they set July 31 as the target date to wrap up the negotiations.

U.S., Iraq discuss post-mandate ties - Los Angeles Times

This is a long boring article. I have just picked out a small part for some good news........

Addax Petroleum announces record results for 2007

Commenting today, Addax Petroleum's President and Chief Executive Officer, Jean Claude Gandur, said: "I am extremely pleased to report that Addax Petroleum's 2007 performance continues our track record for delivering results and demonstrates record achievements in all aspects of our business. During the year, Addax Petroleum advanced its operations in all regions with significant increases in every financial and operational metric, including continued strong production growth in our two core areas of Nigeria and Gabon. Addax Petroleum's successful 2007 appraisal campaign in the rapidly developing Kurdistan Region of Iraq was a major accomplishment for the company and is expected to translate into first commercial oil production in 2008. During 2007, Addax Petroleum also built substantially on our world-class exploration portfolio, particularly in the deepwater Gulf of Guinea. We look to accelerate future reserves growth through an aggressive exploration program in 2008 and the coming years. I would like to thank our employees, management, board of directors, business partners and shareholders for their support and contribution to Addax Petroleum's outstandingly successful 2007."

CNW Group | ADDAX PETROLEUM CORPORATION | Addax Petroleum announces record results for 2007

Dana Gas to pay no dividends

Abu Dhabi-listed Dana Gas will pay no dividends to shareholders from 2007 earnings as it channels cash into investments, the company said in a statement on Thursday.

"The investments were expected to yield better returns for shareholders," Dana Gas said in a statement to the Abu-Dhabi bourse.

The recommendation to pay no dividend was subject to approval by shareholders at the annual general meeting. The board will review the dividend policy next year, the statement said.

Dana said in January it planned to invest around $500 million (Dh1.83 billion) on natural gas projects in Egypt and Iraq's Kurdish province this year. (Reuters)

Dana Gas to pay no dividends ->Emirates Business 24|7

2008 budget
Budget approval is "highest priority."

Parliament begins its spring session; Kurdistan Region's budget to be approved without reducing the number of ministries.

Late last month, Kurdistan Region's Ministerial Council approved the region's 2008 budget, which was estimated to be $7.7 billion. Later on, the 2008 draft budget was forwarded to the Kurdish Parliament for final approval. Despite Parliament's recommendation for the Ministerial Council to send the draft budget to them before the end of 2007, this year's budget, like that of last year, was prepared and sent to Parliament with delay, and the KRG blames the central government for delaying the approval of the country's budget.

After their winter vacation, Parliament began its spring session on Monday, March 10, where they discussed their tasks, approving the budget being the highest priority.

However, some Parliament members claim that they are only allowed to change the linguistics of the budget, not the contents.

"We are waiting for the parties' (Kurdistan Democratic Party [KDP] and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan [PUK]) political bureaus to give us their projects about the budget and approve it," said one MP. "Parliament can't make any changes in the draft budget that they receive except for linguistic changes."

Due to the huge operational budget, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) had decided to take a number of actions including reducing the number of ministries from 40 to 18, plus three ministries of state, and try to reduce the number of public employees. It was expected that the number of ministries would be reduced before the 2008 draft budget was prepared and that the budget would then be distributed over the new ministries. But the Ministerial Council has already approved the budget and still no changes have been made to the number of ministries.

Another criticism is that the three key ministries, Interior, Defense (Peshmarga), and Finance, are still separate and haven't merged.
"We all have to understand that we are still not a state and live in a political country and still have two governments, not one," said Ismael Mahmoud, a Parliament member. "Government means Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Defense, and Ministry of Finance, but still we have two ministries for each and they haven't yet integrated."

Osman Banimarani, an MP from the PUK list, says that Parliament cannot merge the three ministries and cannot even create any pressure.

PUK spokesman Mala Bakhtiyar, on the other hand, says that the ministries will be merged in the new cabinet, which is going to be inaugurated next month.

"I think if the ministries of Finance are not reunited, Parliament is not going to approve the budget," said Bakhtiyar. "There will be joint meetings between the KDP and PUK politbureaus, but not this week due to the Arabic Parliaments' Conference. In the coming weeks the meetings will continue toward the final decision and the establishment of the new KRG cabinet."

Mohammed Mala Qadir, member of the KDP politbureau, says the three ministries will be merged in the new cabinet.

"For this purpose, a committee has been established from the prime minister, deputy prime minister, and two politbureau members of the PUK and KDP," Mala Qadir said. "The committee is holding its meetings until they reach a solution, announce the new cabinet, and put an end to the double-ministry situation."

Critics of the budget believe that a great shortcoming of Iraq's budget is its high dependence on oil revenues and negligence of revenues from some important sectors, including agriculture, industry, and raw materials.

"Iraq has many good sources of income like agriculture, industry, and raw materials, which, if not neglected, can be used as a source of income besides a way to eradicate unemployment," wrote Sirwan Mohammed in an article about the 2008 budget.

The writer says that, according to a report by the Iraqi Ministry of Finance, 83.6% of the country's income is from oil revenues and 16.4% is from various kinds of taxes and customs. From these figures, it appears that the production and agriculture sectors make almost no contribution to the country's economy.

The report states that oil revenues were $35.368 billion and other revenues were $6.944 billion, which means that oil revenues have increased by 14% and other revenues increased by 194% compared to those of last year.

Part of the extra budget that has been sent to the region is to be spent on a wage increase for public employees to help them survive high prices and inflation. However, economists believe that this would not help since the increase is in the nominal wages, while the real wage is constantly declining due to increasing inflation and the decreasing purchasing power of money.

Many people prefer that the government control market prices rather than increase nominal wages. However, Dr. Narmin Marouf, an expert in the field of money and banking, believes that this is not a good solution since controlling the prices by the government is an intervention in the market and is unacceptable in a free-market system. In her opinion, what the government can do to solve the problem is to promote local production to reduce the economy's dependence on imports.

Mousa Mohammed, a university instructor, believes that this increase is not to help the employees, but rather is a political decision.
"The government might have political intentions in increasing the budget and wages," Mohammed says. "It might be a means to gain supporters."


2008 budget | Iraq Updates

Weak demand for loans attributed to Economic Recession

Officials at the Iraqi banking sector attributed the weak demand for loans for projects from Iraqi banks to the overall stagnation in economic activity, stressing the importance of the rapid turnover of funds in promoting financial dealings.

Executive Director of the Private Iraqi Banks Association, Abdul Aziz Hassoun, pointed out to the importance making lending procedures stricter, in line with the requirements of Regulation Guidelines issued by the Iraqi Central Bank and in light of the standards of Basel International agreement, without overlooking the need to activate investments through the banking sector.

Hassoun was speaking at a symposium organized by the Iraqi Federation of Chambers of Commerce, attended by officials from 28 Iraqi banks with capitals amounting to $900 million; the symposium tackled the work mechanism of banks and the credits they grant. He explained that many investors directed their money to investment and speculation, which led to a decline in the volume of bank deposits despite the marked increase in the number of banks since 2003. He pointed out that private banks are dealing with deposits which they attract from their clients, and this casts upon themselves the task of maintaining the funds of others.

He noted that the Iraqi Central Bank urges private banks to increase allocations and reserves to cover their losses as a result of bad loans. The Association urges banks to exist in the market in preparation for the increasing demand which will accompany the start of the reconstruction campaign. He said that bank loans are the financial arm that supplies the market with the operational power to the banking sector.

The symposium, which was attended by the two governmental banks of Al-Rasheed and Al-Rafidein, discussed a working paper presented by the Iraqi Federation of Chambers of Commerce to address the impact of raising bank interest on economic activity, in the light of the Central Bank's monetary policy and its repercussions on the economic activity in general.

Weak demand for loans attributed to economic recession | Iraq Updates