Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 01/01/08 - 14/04/08

Economist Predicts $150 Oil
Political Peak Oil Setting In?

If you think oil costs a lot now, just wait a couple years. Jeff Rubin, chief economist of CIBC World Markets, a major financial institution, predicts oil will hit $150 a barrel within four years, possibly sooner, according to the Toronto Star.

Why? In a nutshell, the other experts expect too much supply from so-called "mega projects," too much political stability from the world's oil-producing nations and too much fair weather. Their expectations are too optimistic.

Rubin argues that costly delays will continue to mark the development of newly tapped oil reserves, like oil sands, oil shale and new deep-water deposits. He argues that violence is likely to disrupt supply, or spark fears enough to drive up the cost. And he argues that extreme weather will interrupt the flow of oil from important regions.

In other words, a combination of scenarios that a Peak Oil analyst would embrace – namely, moving toward reserves that are expensive to exploit because the cheap and easy crude is being depleted – and confounding political and environment circumstances that upset the flow of the remaining cheap stuff. We call that political peak oil. Rubin, it should be noted, embraces the peak oil theory, and believes we've already hit the peak.

Certainly, 2007 demonstrated that each of these scenarios is as likely as smooth sailing on the world oil markets. Mexican oil supply was disrupted by hurricanes. Nigerian oil was disrupted by violence. Kurdish Iraqi oil was disrupted by the threat of Turkish military action.

"Don't think of today's prices as a spike. Don't think of them as a temporary aberration," Rubin told the Star. "Think of them as the beginning of a new era."

Whether or not Rubin is right, it might be wise to hedge our bets. If cheap oil is out, then alternative – and clean-burning – alternatives need to be developed quickly.

Political Peak Oil - Economist Predicts $150 Oil - thedailygreen.com

Iraqi lawmakers pass pro-Baath party law 34 minutes ago



BAGHDAD - Iraq's parliament adopted legislation Saturday on the reinstatement of former Baath party supporters to government jobs, a benchmark sought by the United States as a key step toward national reconciliation.



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The voting was carried out by a show of hands on each of the law's 30 clauses. The bill, officially called the "Accountability and Justice" law, seeks to relax restrictions on the right of members of Saddam Hussein's now-dissolved Baath party to fill government posts. It is also designed to reinstate thousands of Baathists in government jobs from which they had been dismissed because of their ties to the party.

The dismissal of thousands of Baath Party supporters from these jobs had deepened sectarian tensions between Iraq's majority Shiites and the once-dominant Sunni Arabs.


Iraqi lawmakers pass pro-Baath party law - Yahoo! News

Thanks very much adm. Here's another article.

Parliament approves accountability & justice law

The Iraqi parliament approved on Saturday the accountability & justice draft law by overwhelming majority amidst rejection by four blocs.

"The draft law was approved with the new amendments introduced to it by overwhelming majority of members of parliament," Rashid al-Azzawi, a legislator from the Sunni Iraqi Accordance Front (IAF), told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI) after Saturday's session.

Azzawi did not mention the number of deputies who voted in favor of the law, noting 140 MPs attended the session.

The Iraqi National List (INL), the National Dialogue Front (NDF), the Independent Arab Bloc, the National Dialogue Council and IAF independent members expressed rejection against the law and refused to vote over it, terming it as "hard to apply."

The INL, headed by former Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, has 22 out of a total 275 seats in the Iraqi parliament, the Sunni NDF, led by Saleh al-Motlak, has 11 seats while the Independent Arab Bloc has only three seats.

Mustafa al-Hiti of the NDF, during a press conference held by representatives of the opposing blocs, said law was void of the human aspect for it provides for "denying any rights to whoever proved involved in crimes against the Iraqi people or accumulation of wealth at the expense of public funds."

"The law is unrealistic and inapplicable. It contains a paragraph denying the return of the Baath Party (outlawed since 2003), whether in ideology, policy or practice, to authority or public activities under any name," Hiti said.

He pointed out that the law contained loose phrases that could have more than one explanation and might be misused.

The draft is an alternative for the debaathification law, enacted by former U.S. civil administrator Paul Bremer, who ruled Iraq after the fall of the former regime in April 2003.

Since it was first announced by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in June 2007, the draft has been facing fierce opposition and several reservations, mostly by the Sadrists, who occupy 30 out of a total 275 seats in parliament.

Once the law is passed, about 30,000 Baathists, or members of the former ruling Baath Party, would be allowed to return to their original jobs and receive their retirement rights.

Aswat Aliraq

Al-Maliki Receives EU Delegation

Yesterday, Nuri al-Maliki the Iraqi PM received a Delegation from the European Union at his official office. In the meeting al-Maliki emphasized on the Iraqi Government desire to establish the best relations with EU in all aspects.

"As Iraqi Government achieved crucial results in the security field last year, it will try to make 2008 full of economic achievements, building investment and constructional projects to develop the Iraqi Economy and to produce the best services to the Iraqis.” al-Maliki said.

Al-Maliki called the EU to support the economic and investment projects which participate in rebuilding Iraq and to help in promoting the Iraqi Scientific Qualifications which suffered from neglecting during Saddam’s Regime. He also asserted the Iraqi Government will to cooperate with EU in order to achieve the above mentioned projects.

Meanwhile, the delegation members reasserted the EU support to the Iraqi Government efforts to achieve security, stability and to help in succeeding its plans and projects which aim to develop the Iraqi Economy, also to raise the Iraqi’s living standards.

PUKmedia :: English - Al-Maliki Receives EU Delegation

Protocol Among Iraq, Syria and Turkey on Water

Yesterday in Damascus Iraq, Syria and Turkey signed a protocol which includes the necessity of promoting the usage of water sources, establishing common water projects and subsisting water for the three countries.

The protocol was signed by Abdul Latif Jamal Rashid Iraqi Water Sources Minister, Nader al-Bunny the Syrian Irrigation Minister, and Veysel ER Oglou the Turkish Minister of Environment and Forestry. The three ministers emphasized on more cooperation, resuming the meetings of the Triple Technical Committees and observing the common issues.

The Ministers agreed to discuss the possibility of establishing a center for training, qualifying and water researches. They also agreed to hold training courses in water projects, sources and to exchange experiences and information for water subsistence.

PUKmedia :: English - Protocol Among Iraq, Syria and Turkey on Water

Iraqi Council of Representative’s Presidency agrees on Summoning Minister of Trade

Head of Iraqi Integrity Committee, Sabah al Saadi has exclusively told PUKmedia on Saturday that a memorandum, holding signatures of 68 Iraqi MPs from different Blocs, has been submitted to the Presidency of the Iraqi Council of Representatives for summoning the Iraqi Trade Minister, Abdul Falah al-Sudani into the Iraqi Parliament due to his involvement in administrative and financial corruptions.

“The Council of Representative’s Presidency has agreed on the summoning demand .Head of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, Mr. Mahmud al-Mashhadani has issued a formal demand asking the Iraqi Trade Minister to be present in the parliament before 17/1/2007.” He added.

Saadi has also asked the Iraqi government and its PM, Nouri al- Maliki, who considered 2008 as the year of combating corruption, to withdraw passport from Iraqi Trade Minister till his interrogation ends lest he should flee Iraq as his counterpart, the Iraqi Minister of Electricity Aiham al- Samarai, did when he escaped abroad with an American passport, and the former head of the Iraqi Integrity Committee, Razi Razi.

PUKmedia :: English - Iraqi Council of Representative’s Presidency agrees on Summoning Minister of Trade

Bush hails Iraq Progress

President George W. Bush said on Saturday that America's new strategy had reversed Iraq's descent into mayhem and the United States was on track to complete the withdrawal of 20,000 troops by mid-year.

After talks at a base in the Kuwaiti desert with his military commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, and the U.S. ambassador in Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, Bush said security gains in Iraq "are allowing some U.S. forces to return home".

He added: "Any additional reduction will be based on the recommendation of General Petraeus, and those recommendations will be based entirely on the conditions on the ground in Iraq."

Bush conceded that until last year, "our strategy simply wasn't working", with Iraq riven by sectarian violence and al Qaeda militants strengthening their grip in many areas. He said the new strategy, involving a troop buildup and a focus on counter-insurgency warfare, was turning things around.

Bush later flew to Bahrain, a close U.S. ally which hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet, where he was greeted by King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa.

Bush praised the king for Bahrain's efforts on democratic reforms, citing the holding of elections and that a woman was elected to the parliament. "Bahrain's reforms are making your nation stronger, you're showing strong leadership, you're showing the way forward to other nations," Bush said.

About 200 demonstrators gathered near the U.S. embassy in the capital Manama, carrying anti-U.S. placards and some chanting slogans against the ruling family. "State terrorism - Made in USA," read one placard.

In Kuwait, Bush said: "Iraq is now a different place from one year ago. Much hard work remains, but levels of violence are significantly reduced. Hope is returning to Baghdad, and hope is returning to towns and villages throughout the country."

"Al Qaeda remains dangerous, and it will continue to target the innocent with violence. But we've dealt al Qaeda in Iraq heavy blows, and it now faces a growing uprising of ordinary Iraqis who want to live peaceful lives."

With the Iraq war nearing the five-year mark, Bush has refused to discuss any further troop cuts for now, saying that will depend on his commanders' judgments. The limited phased withdrawal of 20,000 troops was announced by Bush in September.

But he gave a sense of the long-term U.S. commitment when he said in a television interview on Friday that the United States would have a presence in Iraq that could "easily" last a decade.

The war remains deeply unpopular among Americans, keeping Bush's approval ratings stuck around 30 percent and below.

But a fall in violence has taken much of the steam out of efforts by Democratic congressional leaders to try to link war funding to troop withdrawal timetables, something Bush refuses to accept. Most Democrats maintain, however, that dramatic changes are needed in Bush's Iraq strategy.

TROOP REDUCTIONS

Petraeus is due to report to the U.S. Congress in March on whether more troop reductions are advisable. Asked on Saturday whether more troops could be withdrawn this year, Petraeus said it was possible but no decision had been made.

Despite heavy U.S. pressure, Iraq's main Shi'ite, Sunni Arab and Kurdish political blocs have failed to agree on major laws seen by Washington as crucial to bridging the sectarian divide. Bush conceded the Iraqi government had to do more.

"Have they done enough? No," he said.

Bush earlier made his first presidential visit to Israel and the occupied West Bank, predicting a peace treaty within a year but with no major breakthroughs. Bahrain was the second of five Arab states Bush will visit to enlist their help in containing Iran's growing regional clout.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said talks would now turn to "the threats that we've seen in the Gulf, the problem of extremism, whether it be extremism from al Qaeda, Sunni extremism, or whether it be Iran and its tentacles, like Hezbollah and the part of Hamas that Iran supports".

Gulf states have battled al Qaeda militants in recent years, but they are also concerned about the crises in Lebanon and Iraq, as well as the standoff over Iran's nuclear programme.

Local media said Kuwait's emir would tell Bush of his concerns that a U.S. strike on nearby Iran would destabilise the Gulf, key to world oil supplies. Bush is likely to hear a similar message from other Gulf Arab leaders fearful of war.

Bush said in Kuwait that Iran and Syria had to stop promoting violence in Iraq.

"Syria needs to further reduce the flow of terrorists to the territory, especially suicide bombers. Iran must stop supporting the militia special groups that attack Iraqi and coalition forces and kidnap and kill Iraqi officials," he said.

PUKmedia :: English - Bush hails Iraq Progress

President Talabani receives David Satterfield

The Iraqi President, his Excellency Jalal Talabani received Iraq coordinator and senior adviser to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, David Satterfield in Baghdad today discussing the ongoing political process in Iraq and efforts exerted to set the obstacles aside and ways of dealing with basic crises in the country.

President Talabani pointed out the content of his meetings with the related sides of the political process in Iraq few days ago to encourage them to implement the signed agreements between the active sides which are concerned with strengthening the principle of accordance and the need for activating the Iraqi government.

President Talabani also highlighted the significance of signing the MOU among PUK, KDP, and the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) noticing the role of Kurdistan Political Leadership in bringing the various political views together and to achieve the comprehensive Iraqi national integrity.

PUKmedia :: English - President Talabani receives David Satterfield

Shiite-Sunni alliance vs. Sunni-Kurdish agreement- paper

Head of the Iraqi National Dialogue Council said that a new Sunni-Shiite political alliance will be set up to back the government and push forward the political process in the country.

"The new alliance will include the National Dialogue Council; the (Sunni) National Dialogue Front, led by Saleh al-Motlak; the Iraqi National List (INL), led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, the (Shiite) Fadhila Islamic Party and the Islamic Daawa Party-Iraq Organization, to which Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki belongs," Khalaf al-Alyan, the head of the council, one of the main components of the Sunni Iraqi Accordance Front (IAF) said in exclusive statements published by the international al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper on Saturday.

"The alliance will also encompass the Sadrist bloc, led by Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, in addition to the Iraqi People's Congress, led by Adnan al-Duleimi," al-Alyan indicated.

According to the newspaper, representatives from all the allied parties visited al-Maliki in his office and expressed their stance of solidarity.
Al-Sharq al-Awsat further described the new alliance as a response to an agreement between the IAF's Iraqi Islamic Party and the two major Kurdish parties in Iraq.

In December 2007, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), led by Iraq's Kurdistan President Massoud al-Barazani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), led by President Jalal al-Talabani signed a tripartite agreement with the Islamic party that aimed to unify stances on several issues, including the Kurdish bombings of Kurdistan region and the controversial issue of oil-rich Kirkuk.

The Iraqi cabinet has been suffering since the withdrawal of 17 ministers from the government. In April 2007, the Sadrist bloc withdrew its six ministers from al-Maliki's government and called for the appointment of technocrat replacements. Four ministers and a deputy prime minister from the Sunni Iraqi Accordance Front (IAF), with 44 seats in parliament, also withdrew from the government. The secular INL, which has 22 seats in parliament, ordered its four ministers to quit the cabinet, but some declined.

Aswat Aliraq

Sorry Bigopie - this one won't please you......

MP urges shorter parliamentary recess to pass crucial laws

A parliamentarian from the Shiite Unified Iraqi Coalition (UIC) called on Iraqi members of parliament to reduce their winter recess in order to pass "crucial" laws and legislative items.

"We attribute the delay in passing several laws and legislative items to the frequent absence of parliamentarians," Hassan al-Saneed told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI) on Saturday.

"I therefore urge all parliament members to shorten their winter recess and speed up the enactment of draft laws," al-Saneed added.

"The diversity of opinion among politicians on several strategic issues, including federalism and the powers granted to governmental institutions, has added to the delay," he explained.

While stressing that difference of opinion is a "healthy state," the lawmaker said it should not hinder the political process in the country.

The Shiite coalition, the largest parliamentary bloc, holds 83 seats in the 275-member parliament. The coalition, headed by the leader of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) Abdul Aziz al-Hakeem, contains several Shiite political and religious parties.

The Iraqi parliament takes two recesses in the summer and winter of two month each.

Aswat Aliraq