Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 01/01/08 - 14/04/08

ISX decreases by 0.5

The Iraqi stock exchange (ISX) index decreased by 0.5% on Thursday compared to the previous session, closing at 34.770 points.

The traded shares were more than 971 traded shares in Thursday's session exceeding (971) million at a total value of (1.763) billion dinars by implementing 363 contracts.

According to the daily analysis of the capital market, non-Iraqi investors were active in today's session by implementing 33 contracts in the banking and industry sectors with total shares hitting more than 236 millions at a value exceeded 447 million dinars.

According to the daily analysis of the capital market, the banking sector's index closed at 36.456 points, 0.147% lower than the previous session, while the industrial index, in which eleven companies traded, ended at 11.164 points maintaining the digits of the previous session.

The statement concluded that 33 companies were traded in Thursday's session out of 94 companies registered in Iraq 's Stock Exchange, of which ten indexes went up, eight dropped, and 15 maintained their previous price.

ISX decreases by 0.5 | Iraq Updates

Iraqi brokers keep eye on bombs not foreign markets
Iraq Stock Exchange affected more by local factors than international events.

Brokers on the chaotic floor of the Iraq Stock Exchange in Baghdad were on Thursday more concerned with latest news on violence and bombings than with the economic factors shaking global markets.

"The situation at the ISE is different from anywhere else in the world," broker Imad Shakir said, perspiring slightly as he took a quick breather from the harried morning trading.

"Only local factors affect us, not international events," said Shakir, of al-Baraka brokerage company. "We keep a close watch on the security situation in Iraq. Violence and bombings always have an effect on trading."

Any sign of major violence sends foreign investors -- mainly from across the Arab world -- running for cover, he added, even as a police chief was killed Thursday by a suicide bomber in northern Mosul city and authorities raised the death toll from a powerful bomb that obliterated a building there to 32.

"If there is a bombing in Baghdad, it affects the number of traders turning up over there," Shakir said, pointing to a space behind a railing where on Thursday about 100 men were standing shoulder to shoulder barking instructions to brokers, like unruly punters at a betting hall.

"They can't reach here if roads are sealed off and there are checkpoints everywhere," he said.

"What happened on the international markets this week had no impact on us at all," he added, before scurrying off, thick black marking pen in hand, to write up latest prices on a whiteboard.

The fact that the exchange, which opens in the mornings on Sundays, Tuesdays and Thursdays, still operates manually makes it more susceptible to being affected by violence, said Jimmy Afham, spokeswoman for the ISE.

"We'll be moving to our electronic exchange in about two months. Then it will be possible for people to trade without having to turn up physically at the exchange" in Baghdad's central Karrada neighbourhood, she added.

Afham said that in fact the ISE general price index had dropped by a "significant" 1.005 percent to 34.96 during trading on Tuesday, when global markets were falling and then rebounding, but this was entirely due to local factors.

"Some companies which had been suspended for irregularities returned to the market at a lower level than before, while a company in Karbala (about 100 kilometers/60 miles south of Baghdad) paid out dividends, and this affected the overall index," she said.

Volume of shares traded on Tuesday, she added, had spiked to 857,379,630 valued at 1.239 billion dinar (1.022 million dollars) from 241,814,165 with total value of 389.9 million dinar during Sunday's session.

With the general fall in violence across the country, the fortunes of the ISE are improving, said Afham.

In 2004, a year after the US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, the number of listed companies was 80 and shares worth 128 billion dinar were traded. The index was at around 64.9 points. "We were feeling optimistic then," she said.

The index slipped to 45.6 in 2005 and 25.2 in 2006, when sectarian strife began to ravage the insurgency-wracked country.

It recovered last year to around 34.5 and has since risen to around 35.
There are now 94 listed companies and trading volumes last year were valued at 434 billion dinar.

"As the violence drops, trading increases and the number of foreign investors grows," said Afham.

Last year, foreign investment -- mainly from traders in the Arab world but also further afield -- accounted for 4.5 percent of total amount invested in the local market.

"Once we have our electronic system in place this figure will increase. It will be much easier for foreigners to trade on the ISE," said Afham.

Iraqi brokers keep eye on bombs not foreign markets | Iraq Updates

Iranian president's visit to Iraq unfixed yet

Tehran has welcomed Iraqi President Jalal al-Talabani's invitation to his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to visit Iraq, an Iraqi government spokesman said, explaining that the date of the visit has not yet been fixed.

"Talabani had invited President Ahmadinejad to visit Iraq, and the Iranian side welcomed the idea," Spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh told Aswat al-Iraq, Voices of Iraq, (VOI) by phone.

"The date of the visit has not been fixed thus far," the spokesman added, explaining that both sides will determine the appropriate timing of the visit.

Al-Dabbagh expressed his government's willingness to host a trilateral dialogue that includes the United States.

The visit will be the first of its kind by an Iranian president to Iraq.

Iranian president's visit to Iraq unfixed yet | Iraq Updates

Britain ordered to publish 2002 Iraq dossier
Tribunal rejects British government’s claims that document’s release not in public interest.

The British government has been ordered to publish an early draft of a controversial dossier on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction which helped justify the 2003 invasion, officials said Wednesday.

The Information Tribunal rejected an appeal by the government that releasing the document, prepared by the Foreign Office in 2002, would not be in the public interest.

Reports have suggested the early draft might include the first mention of a claim that former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein could launch a WMD strike within 45 minutes -- a suggestion which became the focus of a huge dispute after the war.

The Foreign Office reacted cautiously to the order by the tribunal, which rules on cases under freedom-of-information legislation. "We will be studying the decision of the Tribunal," a spokesman said.

The draft dossier was prepared by a Foreign Office press secretary. The 45-minute claim was taken up by then-prime minister Tony Blair in his foreword to the final dossier, published in September 2002.

A huge row erupted between the government and the BBC, which cited sources suggesting that the 45-minute claim had been used to "sex up" the dossier to strengthen the case for war.

The tribunal's ruling was made after a freedom-of-information request by a campaigner, Chris Ames, in February 2005.

The ruling judged the document would be released, although there will be a "very small redaction in the manuscript annotation" before it is disclosed, but that is "not central to (its) purpose or content."

It was not immediately clear when the document would be published, however.

An investigation, the so-called Hutton inquiry, was launched after the source for the BBC's story was revealed as a WMD expert who subsequently committed suicide.

The probe came out largely in favour of the government, which has always insisted the 45-minute claim was backed by the intelligence services.

Blair's premiership was clouded by his decision to back US President George W. Bush in the invasion of Iraq, against opposition from other key European powers including France and Germany.

Britain ordered to publish 2002 Iraq dossier | Iraq Updates

Hiltermann held Iraqi Federal Government Responsibility for delaying Implementation of Article 140

Deputy Program Director, Middle East and North Africa of the independent policy think-tank the International Crisis Group, Joost Hiltermann held the Iraqi Federal Government the responsibility for delaying implementation of article 140.

During a meeting with the Kirkuk Governor Abdul Rahman Mustafa, Mr. Joost Hiltermann emphasized the.......

He also reiterated his readiness to cooperate with Iraqi Federal Government and political sides in Kirkuk for implementing the article. Iraqi Federal Government made a lot of negligence in normalizing Kirkuk and the disputed areas .He also said that their group will closely watch the situation in implementing article 140 in the coming six months.

PUKmedia :: English - Hiltermann held Iraqi Federal Government Responsibility for delaying Implementation of Article 140

Iraq sees Higher Oil Output in 2008

Iraq's oil minister said on Friday he expected his country's output to rise by as much as 400,000 barrels per day in 2008, reflecting improved security in the oil sector.

Hussain al-Shahristani also said Baghdad expected to sign contracts with oil firms to help develop its super giant oilfields that are already producing -- an opening long awaited by the industry -- by the end of the year.

Baghdad is currently pumping 2.3 million bpd of oil and expects to boost supply to between 2.6 million and 2.7 million bpd during 2008, Shahristani told Reuters at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

"We are increasing our production and all the increase will go to exports," he said.

"There is a much improved environment for the security. We expect this to improve and allow us to increase our production and exports."

Iraq's exports have risen largely because of more reliable flows through its pipeline to Turkey, which has been hit by sabotage and technical problems for much of the time since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.

Baghdad is pumping crude from its northern fields to Turkey at a rate of around 480,000 bpd, a shipping source said on Thursday. Pumping had stopped last week due to a power cut.

While some in the industry are sceptical Iraq can sustain a regular flow of oil exports from the north, the Iraqi minister expected improved security to allow higher supplies.

"Although the infrastructure has been neglected for decades...in the oil industry we have managed to protect our pipelines," he said.

"It's the electricity grid that keeps on being attacked by the insurgents."

BIDDING ROUND

Many oil companies have registered to be qualified to bid to help develop Iraq's oil industry, the minister said.

"We are going to sign in the first quarter of 2008 technical support contracts -- bridging contracts for a year or two," he said.

"And we are going to go through the first bid round for the field developments -- these are the super-giant Iraqi fields, the brown fields -- we're going to sign contracts for the development of those fields by the end of 2008."

"We'll go through a second round of bids in 2009."

The Iraqi minister said he had seen no impact on oil demand despite concern about slowing economic growth, a main theme of the World Economic Forum this year.

"We have been hearing about a possible recession in the United States, (but) we have not seen any effect on the oil demand, neither in the U.S. nor outside the U.S.," he said.

Oil has fallen to around $90 a barrel from a record high of $100.09 earlier this month. Prices will probably trade near the present level or ease, the minister said.

"We expect the price to remain at the current level, perhaps slightly lower, during 2008. Perhaps between $70 and $80."

Iraq is one of the 13 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, though exempt from the group's agreements to pump oil at agreed levels.

OPEC meets on Feb. 1 to set output policy and several of its oil ministers, including Shahristani, have said they do not expect the group to raise its supply target.

"We don't feel there is a shortage of oil on the market today," he said. "If that would be the case when we revise all the statistics, then we are always ready to provide the market."

PUKmedia :: English - Iraq sees Higher Oil Output in 2008

Barham Salih emphasizes on succeeding a New Iraqi Federal State

The Iraqi deputy PM, Dr. Barham Ahmed Salih today participated in a seminar entitled (Iraq and its neighbors) along with the General Secretary of the Arab League Secretary General, Amr Musa, the Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mutaki, during participating in the World Economic Forum in Davos.

The Iraqi deputy PM emphasized that the process of democratization of Iraq and succeeding a new Iraqi Federal State is the will of the Iraqis, decided upon in the referendum on the Iraqi permanent constitution, and the neighboring countries should respect their will and to cooperate in accomplishing the Iraqi political process as that will leads to establishing security of all sides.

The Iraqi deputy PM also met sepratly with the UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband, the French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kushner and many other Arabic Foreign Ministers.

The political situation in Iraq and the bilateral ties between Iraq and those countries were discussed during all those meetings.

PUKmedia :: English - Barham Salih emphasizes on succeeding a New Iraqi Federal State

Troops move into Madain to impose ’law and order’

A joint force of Iraqi and U.S. soldiers has regained the restive town of Madain, spreading their control over adjacent areas.

The town, built on the ruins of the famous Persian winter capital of Ctesiphon, has been scene of violence for years and a springboard for bombing attacks in the capital Baghdad.

The town is a short drive from Baghdad. It used to be a major tourist attraction in the past with its parks surrounding the magnificent remains of the arch of Ctesiphon built nearly fourteen centuries ago by Persian monarch Khosrau 1.

Lt. Gen. Qassem al-Atta said the government was considering rebuilding the town and its infrastructure with the departure of ‘terrorists and saboteurs’ and reinstate ‘law and order.’

Atta is the spokesman for the joint Iraqi-U.S. military campaign to pacify Baghdad and outlying districts which had started almost a year ago.

But the military operation to flush out anti-U.S. and government groups from Madain only started last week.

“The operation has resulted in the killing of 15 terrorists wounding of 20 others as well as the capture of many wanted suspects and the discovery of huge quantities of arms,” Atta said.

Azzaman in English

Economists warn of long-term effects of oil prices over Iraq ’s economy

Economists on Friday warned the ongoing rise of oil prices will leave negative consequences on the Iraqi economy.

Experts agreed that the rise of oil revenues could worsen inflation rates and affect the country's balance of trade based on the fact that the rise of imports would eat away all exports turnovers and plunge the market into sticking stagnation.

"The positive effects of the hikes in the crude oil prices could increase the country’s account of foreign currency that might enable the government to meet essential requirements like building on the army, installing new oil refineries and enhancing public services," Dr. Abdul Jabar Abdul Sattar, professor at the Economic department of Baghdad University told Aswat al-Iraq-Voices of Iraq (VOI).

Yet he considered these effects will be short-term if the "oil revenues were not wisely spent."

"The dependence on imported commodities will eat away the oil turnovers and wear out the infrastructures and social security issues," Abdul Sattar highlighted the long-term impact of oil prices over economy.

The expert added "these conditions would increase the imported items, decrease the average revenues and weaken the competitive ability for exports as well as paralyzing the domestic manufactures.

"Rises in oil prices will not continue for ever, as importers will seek cheaper alternatives," he pointed out.

Hilal al-Taan, economist, referred to the negative impact of dependence on importing 90% of commodities which could lead to a deficit in the total Iraqi balance of trade.

He pointed out "the government can not benefit from the hikes in oil prices as the money gained from the increase will not be wisely invested due to rampant financial and administrative corruption.

Aswat Aliraq

Sunni party about to join 4-way alliance – SIIC

A key member of Shiite leader's Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim's Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council revealed on Friday a memo of understanding would be signed by the SIIC and the Sunni Vice President's Tareq al-Hashimi's Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) pertaining to an agreement on a host of political and security issues.

"A committee was set up from both sides to reach common understanding between the IIP and the SIIC," Sheikh Jalal al-Din al-Saghir told Aswat al-Iraq – Voices of Iraq – (VOI).

"The memo is focusing on the need to unify political views on the management of the political process as well as convergence on some other issues like security," said Saghir, noting the memo would "bring the IIP closer to join the four-way alliance."

The two main Kurdish parties – Iraqi President Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Iraqi Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barazani's Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) – had signed a deal with two main Shiite parties – the SIIC and Iraqi Premier Nouri al-Maliki's Dawa (Call) Party – in mid-August 2007.

"The IIP had signed a memo with the PUK and KDP, and with this step the IIP has stepped closer to the alliance," indicated Saghir.

The IIP had signed a trilateral deal with the PUK and KDP in late December 2007.

On the reasons behind the IIP's dialogue with the SIIC, not directly with the ruling (Shiite) Unified Iraqi Coalition (UIC), led by Hakim, Saghir replied that the SIIC has brought the parties closer to the IIP, adding "there has been historical ties between the IIP and the SIIC."

The UIC is the largest bloc in the Iraqi parliament with 83 out of a total 275 seats.

"The IIP is having similar dialogues with the Dawa Party to bring views closer," he said.

On the IIP's return to the Iraqi government, Saghir said the IIP is very close to join the government lineup.

"The reason behind the IIP's delay to join the government was problems within its larger coalition: the (Sunni) Iraqi Accordance Front (IAF). A delegation from the IAF would discuss with a government delegation on Sunday the bloc's return to government," he said.

The IAF, which has 44 seats, had quit the Iraqi government in August 2007 after it certain conditions including genuine participation in the decision-making process and the release of Iraqi detainees.

Aswat Aliraq