Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 15/04/08 - 26/08/08

Experts say "true inflation" exists, announced deflation is "illusion"

Iraqi economists have raised inflation alarms as prices of goods continue to soar, with some describing announced deflation rates as an "illusion" that serves publicity purposes.

Hossam al-Samouk, an Iraqi economic expert, said that two official bodies are responsible for announcing inflation rates: the Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology (COSIT) and the Iraqi Central Bank. According to al-Samouk, inflation figures announced by both bodies are contradictory. "While COSIT says that inflation is running at 17 percent, the central bank says it is only 12 percent."

Al-Samouk argued that despite their strictness, the measures taken by the central bank to maintain price levels have basically served the interests of traders, not customers. When the bank lowered the dollar price against the Iraqi dinar, traders were the only beneficiaries. Not only did they benefit from the exchange rate policy, traders have also pushed up the prices of their imported goods, the expert said, calling on the central bank to monitor markets and to compel traders to adhere to a satisfactory level of prices.

Abdul Rahman al-Mashhadani, the head of the Economic Studies Department in al-Watan al-Arabi Institute, blamed the whole situation to "the absence of a clear economic strategy in Iraq."

Speaking to Aswat al-Iraq - Voices of Iraq - (VOI), al-Mashhadani said, "Most countries work under five-year or medium-term plans (10-15 years), while developed nations draw up their economic plans for the next 25 years."

"The Iraqi economy, represented by its financial and monetary authorities, does not have a clear economic policy, which results in constant price increases," al-Mashhadani noted, adding "the Central Bank adopts a deflationary policy to bring inflation down to lower levels."

"This policy is absolutely wrong because what we face is true inflation, not monetary inflation as reckoned by the central bank. True inflation is the result of the increased demand for goods and services and a shortage in supply," al-Mashhadani added.

"Home-based manufacturing does not cover local demand, which relies mainly on imported goods. The close relation between Iraqi and international markets has transferred the international food crisis to Iraq, which means that we are facing true inflation, rather than monetary inflation," he noted.

Describing the Iraqi government's monetary policy as "a failure," al-Mashhadani said that despite an 18 percent reduction in interest rates, inflation figures remained unchanged. "In fact, inflation has moved up further, contrary to what has been circulating that it dropped to 17 percent."

Meanwhile, Hilal Taan, an academic and economic researcher, said that inflation today is different from the past. "Since the 2003 incidents and the Iraqi market's openness to the world, Iraq has been suffering from stagflation (A condition of slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment - a time of stagnation - accompanied by a rise in prices, or inflation).

According to the researcher, Iraq is currently suffering from three types of inflation: demand inflation, which results from an excess of demand over supply for the economy as a whole; cost inflation, which is the result of the price increase of raw materials, particularly fuel, after the signing of agreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank; and imported inflation, which has occurred after the Iraqi government opened up local markets to imported products and removed tariff barriers.

Experts say "true inflation" exists, announced deflation is "illusion" | Iraq Updates

Update........

Washington hosts seminar on Article 140
UN special rep seeks a political formula, not a "hastily formed referendum"

Few U.S. officials have a thorough understanding of Article 140, says Jay Garner, former administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority of Iraq.

In cooperation with Pennsylvania State University, the Kurdish Institute in Washington held a special seminar on May 9 concerning the implementation of Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution.

Hawar Shally, head of the Kurdish National Conference, warned that not implementing Article 140 will harm the security and stability of Iraq.

He said Article 140 contains suitable procedures to address the disputed, Arabized areas. Those problems should be solved according to the Constitution; new views, therefore, should not be presented to address them.

Shally warned that "not implementing Article 140 will negatively affect relations between the people of Kurdistan Region and the Baghdad government."

Article 140 of Iraq's Constitution provides a clear road map for settling the issue of Kirkuk and other disputed territories in the north, all of which were affected by a ruthless campaign of gerrymandering and ethnic cleansing under Saddam Hussein and his Baath Party in order to Arabize the region. Kurds, who control the northern Kurdistan Region, see Kirkuk as their ancient capital. Arabs encouraged to move there under Saddam Hussein want it to stay under Baghdad's control.

Jay Garner, who attended the seminar, said few U.S. officials have a thorough understanding of Article 140. He believes that it can be implemented in the future.

Muhammad Ihsan, Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) Minister of Extra-Regional Affairs, said "the UN came into the issue [Article 140] following its delay on December 31, 2007. We are now waiting for the UN initiatives and suggestions. If their suggestions are in favor of the public interests and enable us to bring rights back to those whose rights were confiscated, we will support those suggestions as much as possible."

A referendum had been due by the end of 2007 to decide Kirkuk's status but was delayed for six months, partly to give the United Nations time to come up with proposals for settling the issue. Analysts say a vote on Kirkuk, which sits on one of the world's largest oil fields, could spark a bloodbath.

The UN's special representative to Iraq, Staffan de Mistura, said the status of the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk must be solved through a political formula and not a hastily organized referendum that could trigger violence.

A peaceful settlement of multiethnic Kirkuk's fate, which he called the "mother of all issues" in Iraq, would be vital to long-term stability, said de Mistura.

"Kirkuk needs to be solved through a political formula in which everybody, majorities and minorities, feel comfortable," he added. "Otherwise, no referendum will be able to solve it and there will only be ongoing conflict; the last thing Iraq needs is a conflict about Kirkuk," he added.

De Mistura recently stated that the UN would suggest a formula by May 15 to resolve conflicts on several disputed areas in Iraq that could serve as a template for Kirkuk.

He said he would propose options so Iraq could decide under which authority to put four disputed locations, which he did not identify. These locations would not include Kirkuk.

Washington hosts seminar on Article 140 | Iraq Updates

$18 billion of Iraq's Budget allocated for Investment Projects – Minister

Iraqi Finance Minister Baqer Jabr al-Zubaydi said on Friday that $18 billion of Iraq's $48.5 billion budget this year would be allocated for investment projects, in addition to $5 billion in last year's investment turnover.

"We would invite Egyptian, Arab and foreign investors to contribute to the reconstruction of Iraq, either through the large volume of investment funds appropriated for provinces or through direct investment with these provinces," Zubaydi said in an interview with Aswat al-Iraq – Voices of Iraq – (VOI) on the sidelines of an investment conference inaugurated in the Egyptian capital Cairo on Thursday.

The two-day event, held under the title "Iraq today, a country for investments," is convened under the auspices of Iraqi Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi and Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif.

The Iraqi delegation in this gathering comprises 640 figures, 130 of them in the official delegation, in addition to 500 businessmen, investors and banking experts.

The first Iraq investment conference was held in the city of Dubai, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in August 2007.

Aswat Aliraq

Parliamentary blocs' rejoining Govt. helps mutual action - MP

There is no political bloc today marginalized or out of the political process, leading withdrawn blocs to rejoin the government for continuing mutual action, lawmaker Safia al-Sehel said.

"In the near past, some pull out of the government, but today they are rejoining the government, and I mean the Iraqi Accordance Front (IAF) in particular," al-Sehel said from Cairo during her participation in the second conference of business and investment in Iraq.

"Despite that some blocs have yet to rejoin the government, but things are promising, and some reforms that the blocs demanded were achieved on the ground, like the amnesty law, working to solve the militias issue, and the participation by all in the decision making process," she said.

Concerning militias' issue, al-Sehel said "It is a case that belongs to the Iraqi state in all its institutions, and the government should find substitutes for our sons to occupy civilian posts, to stress their presence in the public life."

The independent parliamentarian added "Members of the Political Council for National Security stressed by majority during the last meeting that weapons should be exclusively limited to the state's hand, and that there is a need to build the state of citizenship and law, and that Iraq cannot continue with the presence of militias."

"The Sadr movement perceives that its guns are 'resistance guns,' and here we should explain principles in a wider range," she noted.

Regarding al-Maliki's brief to the parliament on Monday, al-Sehel said "Al-Maliki demonstrated his vision to spend $5 billion, coming from oil prices surge, and he demanded the parliament's approval to invest these funds in big projects, such as power plants, oil refineries, and improving the education and research field."

"Al-Maliki mentioned that Iraq needs 4,500 schools, and the government intends to put a strategy in this regard with the private sector is in its core," she added.

"Personally, I am happy that the government is thinking of constructing the state by rebuilding the infrastructure, and depending on the private sector will provide job opportunities, and solve the unemployment problem in Iraq," she proceeded.

"I am afraid that employment will continue in the fields of police and security only, because this will militarize the society, and I hope that this conference would succeed in bringing investments to Iraq, as it is the time now to build our power plants and refineries," she said.

Aswat Aliraq

GE gets deal to supply Iraq gas-powered Generators

Iraq has agreed to a 179 million euro ($275 million) contract with General Electric Co to buy eight natural gas-powered generators, the Iraqi government's spokesman said.

"The Iraqi cabinet today gave approval to buy the generators from GE at an agreed price of 179 million euros. The ministry of electricity can buy them without delay," spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said.

Iraq has endured more than a decade of chronic power shortages. Blackouts are expected to worsen as its sweltering summer approaches, with air conditioners increasing demand for power. Temperatures can reach 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit).

The country needs 9,500 megawatts a day, but Iraqis receive around 5,000 MW a day. A 10 year plan by the electricity ministry envisages adding 1,000 to 1,500 MW, but attracting investments for the project is difficult.

Aziz Sultan, a spokesman for the electricity ministry, said four of the generators from GE would have a capacity of 150 MW and four smaller ones would produce 40 MW. The smaller four are expected to arrive within four months and the others soon after that. Sultan was not more specific about delivery times.

Most of the generators will be in Baghdad, but at least one is expected to be installed in the southern town of Najaf and one in the northern town of Taji.

"This 760 extra megawatts will go a long way toward meeting the shortfall in our power needs," Sultan said.

Iraq Development Program - GE gets deal to supply Iraq gas-powered generators

Gov’t scraps plan of trimming Cabinet Ministries - Official

The director of presidency board office on Friday said the government scapped the plan of trimming the cabinet as major parliamentary blocs staunchly sticked to their ministry shares.

“The early plan stipulated presenting technocrats for the new cabinet led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki”,Naseer al-Ani, director of presidency board office, told Aswat al-Iraq-Voices of Iraq(VOI).

He added “the original plan was decreasing the number of ministries to 22 and 17 later by merging ministries,such as, Ministry of Science and Technology with Ministry of Higher Education”.

The official noted “parliamentary blocs sticked to their share of ministries taking us back into the idea of filling the vacated ministries by the returning blocs, such as, the Iraqi Accordance Front(IAF)”, adding “efforts were ongoing to include IAF into the cabinet”.

He attributed the objections raised against some names presented by IAF to “government’s will to deliver better performace through outstanding ministers”. (?? Really? in whose world! )

IAF, holding five ministries and deputy PM post in the cabinet, withdrew from the government last April, demanding a greater share in security and political decision-making.

IAF, major Sunni bloc, holds 44 out of the parliament’s total 175 seats.

Aswat Aliraq

Al Jabers Iraqi airlines plan killed AUA deal

It has emerged that Austrian Airline's (AUA) deal with Sheikh Al Jaber had encountered serious problems before Al Jaber pulled out of the deal as Al Jaber had planned to use his stake in AUA to restart Iraq´s national airline. AUA CEO Alfred Ötsch was reported to be enraged by Al Jaber´s alleged plans to enlist AUA´s help in restarting the Iraqi National Airline and Baghdad airport. Ötsch said, "It was a desire that we begin service between Baghdad and the west with AUA aircraft.

We turned that down. We cannot discuss further background as we have been asked to keep the matter confidential." It is now thought that it was Ötsch´s reaction to Al Jaber´s plans that resulted in him pulling his investment in AUA, not being mislead on AUA´s financial situation as Al Jaber claimed. After all Iraqi Airlines´ planes were hidden in the run-up to the Iraq war, Al Jaber had alledgedly presented plans for AUA to donate its out-of-service planes to get the Iraqi carrier up and running again. Ötsch reportedly did not feel that a role in rebuilding the airline would be beneficial to AUA, primarily out of security concerns which have already led to difficulties for the AUA in Iraq. AUA began services to the Northern Iraqi city of Erbil in January of 2007, but the service was discontinued last summer because of the ongoing conflict in the country before being started again in April 2008. Al Jaber responded to the reports, saying, "These rumours are continuously more absurd. We don't want to give anymore comments on the subject." The Austrian-Saudi investor had signed a preliminary agreement to invest 150mn Euros in the airline in exchange for a 20 per cent stake in the company. However, the agreement fell apart after he announced that he had been misled by the company and no longer felt bound by the agreement. AUA has denied any misguidance and is considering taking legal action for breach of contract against Al Jaber.

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Oil on agenda as Bush in Riyadh for talks with Saudi King - Summary

Riyadh - US President George W Bush was in the Saudi capital Riyadh Friday for a two-day visit to hold talks with Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdel-Aziz. With oil prices hitting the record high of over 127 dollars a barrel Friady, Bush's second personal appeal to King Abdullah to increase oil production in an effort to slow down demand reportedly was set to fail Friday.

Soaring oil prices, Iran's nuclear programme, Beirut's political crisis, ties with Iraq and Arab support for the Palestinian authority were the kernels of the meeting with a major US ally in the region, King Abdullah, diplomatic sources said.

The White House has not been pleased with the reluctance of King Abdullah to intervene in the oil market or push OPEC to increase production to ease international demand and bring down skyrocketing oil prices.

Abdullah was not persuaded during Bush's visit in January, but Bush will raise the issue again during the meeting.

On Thursday, the Saudi news agency reported that the talks will focus on bilateral relations in addition to regional and international issues of common concern.

Bush is expected in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Saturday for a meeting with Egyptian President Hosny Mubarak and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, ahead of his return to Washington, at the end of his second tour to the Middle East since he took office.

Bush's visit to the Islamic monarchy also marks the 75th anniversary of the formal establishment of US-Saudi relations.

He arrived, with first lady Laura Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, from Israel where he marked the 60th anniversary of the establishment of the country and stressed on the "unbreakable" US-Israeli alliance.

Oil on agenda as Bush in Riyadh for talks with Saudi King - Summary : Middle East World

Global firms eye oil investments in Iraq

Giant oil firms have shown interest in clenching promising investment opportunities in Iraq's energy sector, Iraqi official said on Friday.

Wood Mackenzie, Shell, Crescent Petroleum and British Petroleum (BP) indicated common desire to explore for new oil and gas fields, develop Umm Qasr Harbor and launch a world-class gas city in Basra, south Iraq.

Chief ****utives and representatives of the companies have met Chairman of Iraqi National Investment Authority (NIA) Ahmed Redha during the latter's recent visit to London, NIA spokesperson Gina Al-Amo told KUNA here.

During the meeting Redha explained the new investment-friendly legislations adopted by the Iraqi government, she said.

Shell Group top commercial advisor Ajay V. Sing told Redha his group sought long-term partnership with Iraq to develop the oil and gas industries and explore new oil and gas fields in Iraq.

Wood Mackenzie CEO David Morris voiced readiness of his company to help investors tap the promising energy market in Iraq through its strategic consultancies and commercial analyses based on its three-decade experience in the energy sector.

Meanwhile, Crescent Petroleum showed desire to develop three projects namely Ratmai oil-field which has projected daily capacity of 250,000 barrels, the modernization of Umm Qasr Harbor, and the launching of Amar and Helal Training Center.

BP plans to send a delegation to Baghdad to explore with the Iraqi side the prospects of investments in the oil-rich country, Amo added.

كونا : Global firms eye oil investments in Iraq - الطاقة والثروة المعدنية - 16/05/2008

Middle East in general

Economic haven, Political hell
A promising economic outlook is offsetting explosive politics in the Middle East. Sherine Abdel-Razek looks at what the future has in store for the economies of the region

Scenes of clashes in Iraq and Palestine, fears of a looming civil war in Lebanon and question marks about the possibility of military action against Iran are throwing shadows of uncertainty over the Middle East. However, this is not depriving the politically-distressed region of its being a Mecca for bankers, multinational oil companies, real estate developers and fund managers from around the world.

Thanks to an unprecedented rise in the price of oil during the last five years -- reaching its peak in 2007 and early months of 2008 -- the region, including a handful of oil exporting countries, has been able to sustain distinctive growth rates. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s regional economic outlook report, "The region's oil and gas export receipts are likely to amount to $940 billion in 2008, close to $200 billion more than was envisaged late last year."

Ten years ago, the region's GDP was valued at $250 billion, but this figure quadrupled to hover around $1 trillion last year. These are unprecedented growth rates, according to Simon Williams, chief economist at the Middle East department of HSBC. Williams noted that while skyrocketing oil revenues are the main catalyst for growth in the region, 80 per cent of real growth in the oil-rich countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) during this period has been achieved in non-oil sectors. This is partly due to large public investment programmes, as well as a high level of business confidence. These sectors include manufacturing and services, especially financial and retail activities.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to countries of the region topped $80 billion in 2007, four times the level in 2002. Egypt, Saudi Arabia (mainly in the oil sector), and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were the largest recipients, accounting for 55 per cent of the total.

Countries other than oil exporters, explained Williams, are more vulnerable and less fortunate due to the pressure on the state's public finances. However, most of these countries have benefited from the petrodollar surplus since they received an influx of Gulf investments. According to The Economist magazine, while the GCC has injected $700 billion in capital in the world economy during the last six years, Asia and the Middle East region have soaked 22 per cent of the GCC's outflows in the period from 2002 to 2006.

The Gulf economies have launched a series of mergers and acquisitions in the region, feeding neighbouring economies with much needed FDIs. These multi-million (and sometimes multi- billion) dollar deals include Qatar Steel's acquisition of an iron mine in Mauritania for $375 million; hunting campaigns for regional banks and financial institutions, such as Abraaj capital of the UAE buying 20 per cent of Egypt's leading investment bank EFG-Hermes, and the fiercely competed race to acquire ****** and fixed line licences by regional telecom heavyweights like Etisalat and Zain.

However, the real estate frenzy is the most noticeable, with names like the UAE-based Emaar and DAMAC, as well as Qatar's Diar, developing millions of kilometres throughout the region starting with Algeria through to Pakistan.

Regional economies will maintain healthy growth rates for a while, stated this week's IMF World Economic Outlook. "The short-term outlook for the region remains very favourable," it noted. "For the region as a whole, real GDP growth is expected to be around six per cent on average in 2008, slightly less than in 2007." The report further revealed that almost all countries in the region were largely unaffected by the recent financial turmoil in developed countries. As in most other emerging markets and developing countries, it said, this resilience owes much to the region's strengthened macroeconomic position and progress with structural reforms.

The report pointed out, however, that the real challenge for most of the countries in the region is to contain rising inflation. The inflation caused by increased food prices and a weakening dollar is threading economies of the region along with the rest of the world. Inflation soared to double digits across the region to reach unprecedented highs in decades in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and up to 20 per cent in Iran.

The different types of regional economies dictate different ways in dealing with this international affliction, with the aim to calm any social unrest caused by overheated prices. With most of their currencies pegged to the dollar, Gulf countries have few options since they can neither raise interest rates nor allow their currency to appreciate. They compensate their people with social pampering methods, including imposing price ceilings on certain commodities or providing cheap housing and medical services.

Already burdened public finances in emerging economies in the region cannot afford such generosity. On the contrary, governments there try to lessen pressure on their budgets by either reducing subsidies, raising salaries or giving compensatory funds for the poor. The governments of Jordan, Syria, Tunisia and Egypt are in the process, or have already implemented, subsidy cuts in 2008; meanwhile, Egypt promised public sector employees a 30 per cent pay rise.

With political unrest remaining high as a risk facing economies in the region, the latter have invented ways to deal with such uncertainties. The safest way to guard local economic welfare in some Gulf countries, like Kuwait and UAE, was to open their territories to US military bases. Others depend on the heavy presence of foreign investments as a source of security, as is the case in Qatar which opened its doors for foreign investments to develop its huge gas reserves. Egypt and Jordan choose to have economic ties with Israel through Qualified Industrial Zone (QIZ) agreements, or a highly controversial deal exporting Egyptian gas to Israel. Qatar and the UAE have gone a step further by aligning with the enemy of their US friends, and concluded economic and business agreements with Iran.

Other threats highlighted in the Global Risks Report 2008 issued by the World Economic Forum, include any short-term supply bottlenecks -- for example, as the result of a terrorist attack -- would undermine the economic foundations of current economic growth in the Middle East.

At the same time, the excess capacity needed to manage oil prices is low, and the resurgence of non-Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) supply has led some to question the ability of Middle East oil producers to achieve price targets. One of the main elements pushing demand, and hence the price of oil, is increased Asian demand -- especially from China. Hence, any ***** slowdown in China's economy, potentially as a result of protectionism, internal political or economic difficulties, will strip the region of many oil-driven gains.

The depth of such a problem is compounded since Gulf countries are venturing in the Chinese oil sector and beyond, purchasing stakes in Chinese banks, container terminals and real estate. This, despite the fact that Chinese capital markets do not yet constitute a major alternative for petrodollar portfolio investments. In turn, Chinese investments in the Middle East include oil production in Syria, the Dragon Mall in Dubai (showcasing Chinese manufacturing goods), and natural gas and planned aluminum projects in Saudi Arabia.

Having an absolute population majority of youth, one of the main challenges for the region is to provide this category with the needed social welfare, high quality education and training needed to make them of added value to their economies, believes Williams.

But while the region's labour force is fast growing, it either lacks job opportunities as is the case in heavily-populated countries like Egypt; or lacks needed skills as seen in the Gulf where citizens are unwilling to undertake lower-skilled tasks. In fact, Gulf countries depend mainly on imported skilled labour, with more than 90 per cent of the UAE's private labour force made up of foreigners.

Al-Ahram Weekly | Economy | Economic haven, political hell