Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 15/04/08 - 26/08/08

Niko Inks Production Sharing Contract in Kurdistan

Niko Resources Ltd, as operator for a consortium, has entered into its first Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with the Kurdistan Regional Government for the exploration, development and production of petroleum resources in the 846 square kilometer Qara Dagh Block in Sulaymaniyah governorate of the Federal Region of Kurdistan-Iraq.

One of the members of the consortium has been in advance negotiations with the KRG over the past 8 months. Forming an acceptable consortium, with a qualified operator was one of the terms to be finalized.

The PSC provides that Niko will operate and have a 27% participating interest. The Block lies on trend with existing discoveries, a portion of which covers a large unexplored 65 kilometer long by 6 kilometer wide surface structure with existing oil seeps. Of interest Qara Dagh translates to Black Mountain.

The consortium has a 60% participating interest that is not subject to further dilution by the KRG. The Government will have a direct 20% interest and will be carried exclusively by the consortium. The remaining 20% will be assigned by the Government to a third party or parties, within a period of 8 months, with the requirement to pay back their share of costs incurred by the consortium.

The obligations under the PSC include a onetime signature bonus and capacity building bonus paid to the Government within 30 days from the ****ution date of the contract. Annual contributions to personnel, training and technological funds established by the Government, as well as community support contributions to be paid over a period of 15 months to assist with infrastructure projects in the area. The consortium will also be responsible for paying its proportionate share of certain production bonuses in the case of commercial discovery. The remaining minimum work program obligations represents an exploration commitment, expected to commence in the near future, which includes the acquisition, processing and interpretation of a minimum of 300 kilometers of 2D seismic data and drilling of one well during the first exploration period.

Niko Inks Production Sharing Contract in Kurdistan | Iraq Updates

Oil Rises Above $135 after Unexpected Drop in U.S. Inventories

Crude oil rose to a record above $135 a barrel in New York after U.S. stockpiles unexpectedly dropped and traders closed losing trades on bets that prices would fall.

Oil has risen 19 percent this month as analysts have increased their price forecasts because of supply constraints and demand growth. U.S. crude inventories fell 5.32 million barrels to 320.4 million barrels last week, the biggest drop in four months, the Energy Department said yesterday. Gasoline supplies plunged 755,000 barrels when analysts expected a gain.

"Onwards and upwards seems to be the current trend,'' said Robert Laughlin, a senior broker at MF Global Ltd. in London. "Open interest has been falling in recent days suggesting traders have worn enough pain and covered shorts.''

Crude oil for July delivery rose as much as $1.87, or 1.4 percent, to $135.04 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $134.44 a barrel at 9:36 a.m. London time.

Oil for prompt delivery has surged 8.5 percent in the past week while futures contracts for 2016 gained $20 to $142 a barrel.

Brent crude oil for July settlement rose $1.81, or 1.4 percent, to a record $134.51 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $134.29 a barrel at 9:37 a.m. local time.

Wrong-Way Bets

"Everyone's jumped on the bandwagon,'' said Anthony Nunan, assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp., Japan's biggest trading company, in Tokyo. ``There's agreement that $200 is possible and that's getting more people into the market. We have very little supply cushion going forward and that's playing into the minds of investors.''

Oil's rally to a record above $135 a barrel came as traders bought crude to cover wrong-way bets that prices would decline, according to data from the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The number of outstanding futures contracts, known as open interest, fell 8.1 percent in a week to 1.36 million at the same time that prices rose 2.6 percent, the data show. Falling open interest and rising prices are signs that traders are buying to exit so-called short positions that would profit if oil fell, and lose money as they rose.

Open interest has been sliding for months, after the number of outstanding crude futures reached a record 1.58 million on July 16, 2007.

Options Contracts

Crude for delivery in December 2016 ended yesterday at $142.09 a barrel, signaling investors anticipate prices will gain for years. Some traders speculate oil will reach $200 this year. The price of a December 2008 option contract that allows the holder to buy 1,000 barrels of crude at $200 each jumped 67 percent in three days to $1.72 a barrel yesterday on the Nymex.

The International Energy Agency, the Paris-based energy analysis organization, will predict that companies may produce 100 million barrels a day by 2030, lower than the 116 million previously forecast, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The group is analyzing the 400 oilfields that provide more than two thirds of crude today to determine how much they are likely to produce in the future based on field health and investment, the newspaper said on its Web site.

The IEA is working with oil companies, oilfield-service companies, energy ministries and consultants, the Journal said. Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran and China aren't cooperating with the new study, the newspaper reported.

`No Magic'

OPEC has "no magic solution'' to record crude prices, Qatar's oil minister said.

"We are producing at our maximum,'' Abdullah bin Hamad al- Attiya said today in a phone interview from Doha. ``We don't see a shortage in supply.''

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces 40 percent of the world's oil, has no plans to react before its scheduled meeting in September because there is nothing it can do, the minister said.

Prices may reach $200 a barrel as maximum output from OPEC fails to prevent speculators from driving prices higher, Libya's top oil official said.

"It could reach $200,'' Shokri Ghanem, the chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp., said in an interview with Bloomberg ********** today.

Oil will stay near or exceed record levels through September as production trails demand, hurting shares of companies that depend on consumer spending, said Prudential Investments Advisers LLC.

Crude oil will ``probably be in the $120 to $130, or $140 range,'' said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at the Newark, New Jersey-based unit of Prudential Financial Inc., which manages around $630 billion. ``That has negative implications for growth, because it impacts consumer spending.''

PUKmedia :: English - Oil Rises Above $135 after Unexpected Drop in U.S. Inventories

Deputy Chairman: Draft Oil Bill “Unofficially” Reached Council of Representatives

The draft oil bill unofficially reached the Iraqi Council of Representatives while the Presidency of the Council was calling on the Iraqi Council of Ministers to officially send the bill to the Council.

“The bill was unofficially reached the Council, this is not acceptable legally,” Deputy Chairman of Iraqi Council of Representatives, Arif Taifur, told PUKmedia, urging the Iraqi Council of Ministers to send it officially.

As Deputy Chairman said, the copy of the bill, which was sent to the Council, was accepted in February 2006.

The committees formed by the Iraqi federal government and KRG have not yet finished their work for the supplementary laws including the law for arranging Iraqi oil revenue. “The (oil) bill will not be passed unless the supplementary laws are passed,” he added.

Meanwhile, Many Iraqi PMs called for passing the first reading of the bill.

PUKmedia :: English - Deputy Chairman: Draft Oil Bill “Unofficially” Reached Council of Representatives

Turning Point: The Good News about Iraq

Iraqi forces are leading operations in three Iraqi cities with little U.S. support.

As Gen. David Petraeus and Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno appear before the Senate Armed Services Committee for confirmation hearings today, things are looking up in Iraq.

Iraqi military spokesman said Tuesday that Iraqi troops have moved into Baghdad's Shiite militia stronghold of Sadr City to seize control.

Despite the recent gun battles and civilian casualties we have seen in Sadr City, there are some real signs of progress. Military officials are more optimistic now than they have been at any time since the purple-finger elections of January 2005. Consider:

-- Iraqi forces are now leading operations in Basra, Mosul and Sadr City. In each case, the Iraqis have made progress with relatively little American support. This is unprecedented: three major Iraqi-led operations in three different parts of the country.

-- Last week, the overall level of attacks in Iraq was at the lowest point since April 2004.

-- Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's political position has never been stronger. Just two months ago, senior Iraqi officials were openly talking about replacing Maliki. There is now no such talk. Maliki currently has the backing of Sunnis, Kurds and moderate Shiites.

-- Maliki's stronger position means that Moqtada al-Sadr's party is politically isolated. For now at least, Sadr is no longer the political power broker he once was.

-- On May 8, the speaker of the Iraqi parliament, Mahmoud al-Mishhadani, wrote a heartfelt letter to President Bush, thanking the U.S. for sending the "best politicians and military commanders" to Iraq. Mishhadani urged Bush to keep Gen. Petraeus in Iraq. His letter was not reported in the Western press, but it is a significant sign of political progress. Just a year ago, Mishhadani, a Sunni, said attacks on U.S. forces are justified and called Sunni insurgents who kill American troops "heroes."

It's too early to say what all this means about troops levels, but the initial success of the Iraqis in Mosul, Basra and Sadr City raises the possibility of more troop withdrawals this fall.

As one usually pessimistic military official told me this morning, "Everything has broken our way over the past three months."

PUKmedia :: English - Turning Point: The Good News about Iraq

Sharp drop in the demand for the dollar

Demand for the dollar was down in the Iraqi Central Bank's auction on Thursday, reaching at $33.650 million compared to $76.130 million on Wednesday.

"The demand hit $4.720 million in cash and $28.930 million in foreign transfers outside the country, all covered by the bank at a stable exchange rate of 1,199 Iraqi dinars per dollar," according to the central bank's daily bulletin which was received by Aswat al-Iraq - Voices of Iraq - (VOI).

The 11 banks that participated in the auction offered to sell $6.650 million dollars, which the bank bought at an exchange rate of 1,197 dinars per dollar.

Speaking to VOI, Ali al-Yasseri, a trader, said the demand for the dollar has unexpectedly and significantly decreased on Thursday.

The stable exchange rate for the sixth session in a row discouraged banks and traders to make bids in today’s session, he added.

The Iraqi Central Bank runs a daily auction from Sunday to Thursday.

Aswat Aliraq

Barazani ratifies Kurdistan region budget for year 2008 –media advisor

Kurdistan’s regional president Masood Barazani on Thursday ratified the Kurdish region’s fiscal budget for calender year 2008, a media advisor said.

“Barazani ratified Kurdistan’s budget law for calender year 2006 after the Kurdish parliament endorsed the law by last April” Tariq Jouhar, media advisor for Kurdistan’s regional president,
The spokesman added “Kurdistan’s parliament received the endorsed budget law from the region’s presidency”, noting “the law would come into action soon”.

Kurdistan’s budget for calender year 2008 amounts to $6.4 billion dollar, 17% of the total Iraq’s budget endorsed by the parliament last February.

Aswat Aliraq

Provincial elections law still under debate inside Parliament

Iraqi Parliament headed by Speaker Mahmoud Al Mashhadani convened in a parliamentarian session that included the second read out of electoral law for provinces and districts and the first read out of financial control and Integrity commission draft laws in addition to the law proposal of general inspectors. This session is part of the first legislative quarter in the third legislative year.

Moreover, some politicians made comments on several points of the provincial elections law which is still under debate inside Parliament while some parties have called to postpone it.

Provincial elections law still under debate inside Parliament | Iraq News | Alsumaria Iraqi ********* TV Network

Gates says Iraq 'endgame' in sight
US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the "endgame" is now in sight in Iraq but warned of the costly consequences of withdrawing US forces too hastily.

I fear that frustration over slow progress and dismay over sacrifices already made may result in decisions that are gratifying in the short term but very costly to us in the long term," he said.

Gates made the comments in a speech delivered to US special operations forces at their headquarters in Tampa, Florida in which he emphasized that they will be needed in Iraq and Afghanistan for a long time.

While he made no direct mention of calls by Democratic leaders for deep cuts in US forces next year under a new administration, Gates clearly had them in mind in cautioning against pulling out too quickly.

"We are now seeing what the end game in Iraq looks like - with our forces drawing down over time, in a series of very complex battlefield rearrangements that slowly cede more responsibility for day-to-day security operations to the Iraqis," the prepared remarks said.

"It is a slow process - slower than most would wish, myself included," he said. "But it is necessary if we are to get the endgame right."

The US currrently has about 155,000 troops in Iraq, but the number is supposed to fall to about 140,000 by July.

General David Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq, has insisted that the drawdown be halted at that point to see whether Iraqi security forces prove capable of taking up the slack.

Gates recalled the string past failures when security was handed over to Iraqi forces before they were ready - "based on overly rosy predictions that didn't necessarily line up with reality."

"We must be realistic about the challenges still facing Iraq: Al Qaeda remains a lethal force - a cancer - always looking to metastasize and regenerate; armed militias still undermine the rule of law; and the government, while making great strides, still has a lot to learn about how to deliver basic services and security to its people," he said.

Gates argued that succeeding in Iraq and Afghanistan is crucial to the broader war on terrorism, which he portrayed as a long struggle against religiously motivated international terrorism.

"The task before us is to fracture and destroy this movement in its infancy - to permanently reduce its ability to strike globally and catastrophically, while also discrediting and deflating its ideology.

"And our best opportunity to do this is in Iraq and Afghanistan," he said.

US success in those countries would "strike a decisive blow" against an Islamic extremist movement that has been "methodically built on the illusion of success," he said.

"We are at war in Afghanistan today because of mistakes we made - I, among others, made - in the endgame of the anti-Soviet war there in the late 1980s," he said.

"If we get the endgame wrong in Iraq, I predict the consequences will be far worse," he said.

He highlighted the role of US special operations forces, which now number about 55,000, noting that 80% of those deployed are in the Central Command area of operations.

"The eventual drawdown in Iraq is not the end of the mission for our elite forces. Far from it," he said.

"Even as our regular troops reduce their presence and are replaced by Iraqis, special operations force levels will remain fairly constant and be the connective tissue of the overall mission," he said.

"They will be in Iraq and Afghanistan for an extended period of time - as a force to hunt and kill terrorists and also as a force to help train Iraqis and Afghans," he said.

Gates says Iraq 'endgame' in sight - Politics & Economics - ArabianBusiness.com

We Are Making Progress in Iraq

While the media offers mostly images of violence, and many Americans have grown weary of the war in Iraq, I bring hopeful news to Washington this week as I meet with the administration and members of Congress.

Since 2003, we have built the Kurdistan Region as a model for democracy and a gateway for development for all of Iraq. We are willing partners in this transition toward an Iraqi government that is representative of all its people. Through our peshmerga forces, we provide some of the most effective units against al Qaeda and other terrorist groups. We Kurds are committed to a federal, democratic Iraq at peace within its borders and with its neighbors.

We are working with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the Iraqi leadership in Baghdad on the difficult issues facing our country. Our relationship with Iraq's federal government has never been better. And progress is being made on an oil law, the status of disputed territories, the proper role for Iraq's neighbors to play, and on relations between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Turkey.

First, the oil law. We will now start negotiations using a draft drawn up in February of 2007. We'll also establish a process to send the national oil law, the revenue sharing law, and the laws concerning the Iraqi National Oil Company and the Oil Ministry in Baghdad to parliament as one package – to be voted up or down.

New oil contracts will be approved based on agreed-upon guidelines. The oil exploration contracts the KRG has already signed won't present a problem, because they were negotiated based on the highest standards of transparency.

There is also progress in settling the status of Kirkuk and other disputed territories. Previous Iraqi regimes expelled Kurds, Turkmen and Christians from Kirkuk, and gerrymandered provincial borders to change its demography. Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution establishes a legal process to remedy this injustice. We are encouraged that the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary General is helping to develop a proposal regarding the implementation of Article 140.

As we resolve internal issues, we also understand the importance of a peaceful relationship with all our neighbors, based on mutual respect and noninterference in internal affairs.

To that end, we will continue reassuring our neighbors that a federal Iraq is not a threat. But we will also continue to encourage our neighbors to do what they can to stop terrorists from infiltrating Iraq.
We think it is imperative that Middle Eastern states send their diplomatic representatives to Iraq, and for these states to proactively prevent terrorists from slipping across their borders. Unprovoked and recurring bombardment of the Kurdistan Region by Turkey and Iran must stop.

There has also been a historic step forward in KRG-Turkish relations. On May 1, I represented my government in the first high-level, official bilateral meeting with Turkey. Held in Baghdad, the meeting was conducted in a cordial atmosphere, and both sides stressed similar views on a wide range of issues. We reiterated to our Turkish colleagues our commitment to good neighborly relations, which is underscored by the growing Turkish investment in the Kurdistan Region. Our talks also focused on the need for practical steps and continued dialogue on all outstanding issues, including the problem of the PKK.

We Kurds understand and share America's frustration with the pace of political progress in Iraq. We are doing all we can to create security, stability and prosperity. While progress has not come fast enough, Iraq remains a worthy cause.

As Americans debate the future of the U.S. role in Iraq, allow me to say that America's mission remains vital to the stability and security of our region. A precipitous withdrawal of U.S. forces could be calamitous. We welcome a U.S. presence in the Kurdistan Region as part of any redeployment of forces.

The Kurdish people of Iraq suffered under Saddam Hussein. And we fought and died alongside Americans to liberate our country. There is no ambiguity about the depth of gratitude that Kurds feel for America's sacrifices in Iraq. Americans who have been killed or wounded in Iraq are heroes to me and to all of Iraq's Kurds. We will never forget what you have done for us.

Mr. Barzani is prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq.

We Are Making Progress in Iraq - WSJ.com

IMF Update 1

Technical Assistance Evaluation Program - Findings of Evaluations and Updated Program - Evaluation of the Technical Assistance Subaccount for Iraq

Summary:

Key Messages

• The Iraq Subaccount is a good example of donor coordination as expressed in the Paris Declaration.

• Overall, the TAs funded from the Iraq TA Subaccount were successful, relevant, efficient and effective.

• Ensuring long-term sustainability requires maintaining an adequate the level of TA activity in the future.

• There were instances where more pro-active donor coordination was needed to build synergies to achieve development results.

• While the offsite modality was fairly effective and cost efficient and delivered value for money, the limits of this model will be stretched as IMF moves from policy and operational advice and training to greater emphasis on supporting the implementation of policies and procedures.

• The Fund’s internal monitoring needs to be strengthened, particularly the TA Information Management System. Reforms in this area are on track, supported by Fund management, and improvements are expected by 1 May 2008.

• The Fund’s TA evaluation framework needs to be strengthened by instituting a system of self assessments of all completed TAs and developing guidelines for the ex-post evaluation of TAs. Work in these areas is planned.

• The Fund delivered slightly more internally funded TA to Iraq than originally planned.

Summary :-

Technical Assistance Evaluation Program - Findings of Evaluations and Updated Program - Evaluation of the Technical Assistance Subaccount for Iraq

Full Text :-

http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2008/040408a.pdf