Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 15/04/08 - 26/08/08

Iraqi American Convention expanded at a symposium of the Iraqi Center for Development Information
Mr. Hussein al-Sadr: Iraq shackle Convention and diminish the sovereignty

The Centre for the Development Iraqi media and citizen cooperation with the newspaper yesterday organized a discussion forum entitled Convention (Iraqi American strategic interests or instruments of custodianship?) Symposium was moderated by writer and researcher at Al-Saadi, when he referred at the beginning of his speech to the importance of establishing such symposiums in the presentation of important issues in the political, economic and social And clarification of ideas that will help those responsible in issuing the appropriate decision .. The generosity of Mr. Hussein al-Sadr member of the National Assembly prior to the rejection of the agreement between Iraq and the U.S. saying it wants the erosion of Iraqi sovereignty .. For his part, stressed the writer Adli Hussein Darwish, secretary-general democratization of the Islamic trend, it is necessary not to pre-empt things and build on the visions set assumptions Iraq is a powerful country and across all times and is not obliged to accept the Convention without access to its items ..
Details of the symposium page Sweeteners

جريدة المواطن العراقية

Scene: technical reasons behind the delayed ratification of the provincial assemblies

Back House Speaker Mahmoud scene late Friday Adoption Act provincial council elections on grounds he described as technical and will be voting on the law next week, and revealed that the reasons for the delay in announcing the new cabinet reshuffle is a division within the Accord Front, which belongs to the scene.

The scene in a press statement that "next week will witness the vote on election law and district councils sufficient time for elections in October next." Adding that "technical reasons behind the delay in adoption law." He called on House Speaker parties and all political forces to give an opportunity for all Iraqis participate in the nomination process, otherwise the results would be miserable, as he put it.

In reply to a question about the return of the Accord Front government, he said that the scenery of "consensus needed to agree on names of candidates for government ministers, and cabinet reshuffle was delayed due to the front."

On a question about negotiations with the U.S. to release Iraqi detainees from prisons, said Parliament Speaker Mahmoud scene, "We have dialogues and orientation within the Council on the need for direct negotiations with the American forces regarding the release of Iraqi detainees from prisons innocent."

In response to a question regarding the new cabinet reshuffle, the scene that "the decision taken by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki judge that the new ministers of competencies and technocrats Saeb for nation-building"; However, he admitted that "the foundation built by the Government through the erroneous allocation of posts even less Degree of degree minister was among the sectarian quotas did not take into account the competencies of Iraqi citizens.

By another president revealed the coordinating body for provincial assemblies and territories of Iraq, about the existence of differences among the members of provincial assemblies, inter alia on the law concerning the provincial assemblies and local elections scheduled for early October next.

He explained Abdul-Kazim's Shrine Khudayr told press that "no case of disagreement among members on the list of closed and open." He explained that "some political blocs wish to be closed and others believe that it must be open."

Khudair also pointed out that there is another problem "related to the question of the participation rate of women in provincial assemblies as defined by the law of provincial assemblies to be 25%."
He added: "The issue of women's representation in provincial assemblies is still uncertain and there is concern not to rise the number of women fits the United Nations embargo imposed by law or the provincial assemblies which determine the ratio of 25% for women."

The chairman stressed the "need to use the platforms and mosques for electoral propaganda." Adding that "the issue of taking pulpits, mosques and the mosques of campaigning does not affect the essence of elections, but calls for elections and this must be seen, because our society mosques and places of worship used the limits of constitutional due process."

For his part, felt Mahmoud Mohamed Majid, board member of Kirkuk governorate "the need to rely on closed lists."

He added: "We want to hold elections lists have also been closed in previous elections because the lists could open the voter to choose one person on the list and one that we believe will be the forgery and appeals."

With Dr. Hafiz Abdul Aziz, deputy governor of Diyala expressed fears of not holding free elections in Diyala province, for many reasons, as summarized by saying that "the Diyala province, suffered the problem of immigrants as well as the topic of security."

Sotaliraq.com -

Thousands protest U.S. extended occupation of Iraq

Thousands of supporters of Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr rallied in the streets of Baghdad Friday to protest plans for a long-term U.S.-Iraq security agreement.

The protesters took to the streets after Friday prayers in the capital's Sadr City neighborhood and other cities across Iraq.

Sadr called Tuesday for protests against a possible agreement that could lead to an extended U.S. troop presence in Iraq. He said supporters should hold weekly demonstrations until Iraq's government cancels the negotiations with the United States.

The agreement would replace the current United Nations mandate for U.S. troops in Iraq, which expires at the end of this year.

Separately, U.S. forces said one Iraqi child was killed and another injured when a bomb exploded where they were playing in Baquba on Friday. Authorities said the children were playing near a garbage dump when the improvised explosive device went off.

Elsewhere, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki told reporters in Stockholm that his government is working on plans to encourage tens of thousands of refugees to return home.

Mr. Maliki met with Swedish officials Friday, one day after a U.N.-backed conference in Stockholm on rebuilding Iraq.

He said the Iraqi government has earmarked funds as part of an effort to make Iraq more attractive to citizens who sought asylum in Europe and elsewhere.

Also Friday, the U.S. military said its forces killed a suspected al-Qaida arms dealer and captured three key members of al-Qaida's bombing network in a series of operations across the country today.

The military also said today a U.S. Marine had been removed from duty after Iraqis in Fallujah complained he was handing out coins that quoted verses of the Bible.

A spokesman says an investigation is under way. A military statement said U.S. troops are prohibited from "proselytizing any religion, faith or practices."

Thousands protest U.S. extended occupation of Iraq

Jordan to appoint Iraq Envoy

Amman — The Jordanian government said yesterday that it planned to name a new ambassador to Iraq to lead the Kingdom’s diplomatic mission in Baghdad. “The government will name the Kingdom’s ambassador to Iraq in the coming period in order to take up his post as head of the diplomatic mission in Baghdad,” the Minister of State for Information Affairs and Communication Nasser Judeh said. The Jordanian official did not specify when the Jordanian ambassador would be named and travel to Iraq to run the Jordanian embassy, which was the scene for a fatal bombing in August 2003.

The move apparently came in response to calls by the United States and Iraqi Vice-President Tareq al Hashemi who ended a three-day visit to Jordan on Thursday. The Amman government named an ambassador to Iraq three years ago but the diplomat failed to take up his post owing to lack of security protection, officials said. Al Hashemi pledged during his visit that the Iraqi government would reinvigorate an agreement reached between the two countries in 2006 under which Iraq promised to supply Jordan with crude oil at preferential prices. He also told leaders of the private sector in Amman that Jordanian businessmen and industrialists would be given priority in getting Iraq reconstruction deals.
Oman Observer - World

Fleeing Sadr commanders taking orders from Iran -- US army

Iraq said on Saturday that "special commanders" from Sadr armed militia are fleeing Sadr city in eastern Baghdad and are now taking their orders and training from Iranian revolutionary guards.

The US military said in a statement that based on intelligence reports those commanders who used to be involve with the Mahdi army are on the run every time the US or Iraqi security forces arrest one of them.

However such maneuver was not successful enough since the US army arrested one of the special commanders on Saturday in Al-Rasafah in Baghdad.

The US military said the arrested commander was involved in financing and kidnapping operations in Sadr city.

The statement added intelligence reports also led to the suspect's house where he was discovered to be a prominent assistant to one of the main group commanders who were trained in Iran and lately fled Sadr city.

Last April, the US forces conducted a wide military campaign against the militia in Sadr city which resulted in killing more than one thousand people and confiscation of weapon caches.

كونا : Fleeing Sadr commanders taking orders from Iran -- US army - الد�اع والأمن - 31/05/2008

Opinion Piece

Hamish McRae: Crude prices may have peaked but developing countries hold the key

Could that have been the peak in the oil price? It is such a hostage to fortune to try to call the top of any market that any such suggestion has to be hedged with qualifications and, in this instance, there may well be more peaks in the coming weeks and months. It is probably also true that, unlike in previous oil booms, this one will not be followed by an oil slump. But I think it is worth acknowledging that the oil price is high enough now to start to force change in people's behaviour, which it has to succeed in doing if we are not to have another and even more damaging oil shock ahead.


The issue about the peak in the oil price first, then some thoughts about a credible future path for prices. All the commodity markets have a frothy feel to them at the moment. There have been some sharp falls, for example in the wheat price – indeed, food prices in general seem to have ended the upward path they have sustained for the past 18 months. Quite how far prices will eventually come back will vary from commodity to commodity, for in some cases there has been a speculative element that has pushed the price beyond economic fundamentals. Obviously, the greater the speculative excess the greater the potential for a fall.

But oil is different from most other commodities. It is vastly more important; it has fewer substitutes and, for some applications, none at all; and there is a long-term problem of supply. To see its importance, look at the first graph, which shows the amount of world GDP that is spent on oil. At the moment, about 6 per cent of global GDP is being spent on oil, a huge increase on the proportion during the 1990s and early 2000s. But according to these calculations by the Bank Credit Analyst group, back at the last peak at the end of 1979 the proportion was higher still, more than 7 per cent. So while the real price of oil is higher now than then – it was equivalent to about $90 in today's money – and more oil is being produced, the world economy is much bigger so the burden accordingly is less now than then.
Still, even 6 per cent of the world economy is huge and money spent on oil is money not spent on something else, so this does result in an enormous shift of resources from the oil-consuming nations to the oil-producing ones. So, while this is not as big a shock in total as in 1979, it ought to be big enough to change behaviour, at least in the developed world. Trouble is, changes in the developed world matter less now than they did 25 years ago.


The next graph shows the long-term shift in the balance of demand for oil away from the developed world to the developing one. Crossover comes in the next couple of years. But look at the other graph. In the 1970s, there was a sharp fall in demand from the developed world in response to the price shocks. This time, that fall is less evident. That could mean two things. It could be that, thanks to a generation of efforts to curb oil use, it is harder now to economise; or it could mean that we are at the early stages of slump in oil demand and that as growth slows we will see this decline steepen.

One tiny bit of evidence supporting the latter view came yesterday with a report from Reuters that provisional figures from HM Revenue & Customs, which are based on fuel duty receipts, show slight falls in petrol and diesel use in April compared with a year ago. That is either a straw in the wind or to cite it is clutching at straws: we will see. But it does follow a similar trend in the US, where people are evidently driving less in response to the surge in fuel prices.


However, while the developed world may follow the path of conservation, there is not much evidence that the developing (or perhaps one should say the newly industrialising) world will do the same. As you can see, previous oil shocks had little impact on demand, but then the absolute amounts of oil being consumed were much lower. So far, there has been no evident fall in demand from developing countries, and as noted above, they are now almost as important as the developed world. Why no fall? Partly, it must be because of the strong underlying growth but there has also been a short-sighted policy response. One of the policies adopted by many developing countries has been to try to shield consumers from the impact of higher oil prices by subsidising the stuff. You can understand the pressure to do so but this cannot be sustained for long and there are signs that some subsidy schemes are now being phased out.

So how should one read all this? My feeling is that this time there may be a slight overall decline in global oil consumption over the next couple of years, with falls in the developed countries offset by a slower increase in demand from the developing ones. As for prices, I like the conclusion of the BCA team that put together these graphs: "A technical correction in oil prices is overdue, and may have started in recent days. However, below-market prices in many developing economies are shielding consumers, thereby propping up global oil demand and putting a solid floor under prices."

Medium-term, as growth recovers, perhaps in 2010/11, then the pressure will be on the oil price again.

What about supply, though? One thing you can be sure of: at this price, the oil majors of the West will be squeezing everything they can out of production. There is no point in lecturing them about trying to do more, as our Prime Minister seems to have been doing yesterday. The market is doing that already. The bigger question is whether the Opec producers can do more. In the short-term, the answer seems to be no. Technical and practical difficulties are restricting supply, not political decisions. Opec is not really acting as a cartel in the sense that a cartel holds down supply in order to drive up the price.

What will happen is that the present price will stimulate investment in new fields – there was a modest announcement yesterday by our own Government that a couple of new fields in the North Sea would be developed and that some existing ones would have investment that increased their output. But short of something really big happening – a new field on the scale of the North Sea or bigger – it is really very hard to see production running ahead of demand for long. Unless, big unless, the slowdown evident in the developed world broadens into a global economic slump. But we don't want that, do we?

Hamish McRae: Crude prices may have peaked but developing countries hold the key - Hamish McRae, Business Comment - The Independent


Author: HAMISH McRAE Business C.o.m.m.u.n.i.c.a.t.o.r of the Year

No intention to establish permanent bases in Iraq- NATO deputy commander

Deputy commander of NATO Training Mission in Iraq, Major General Alessandro Pompegnani, on Saturday ruled out any intention for NATO to establish permanent bases in Iraq, stressing “our role is to train and upgrade the capabilities of the Iraqi forces.”

“The mission has overseen the training of 67 officers from the War (Arkan) Academy, 10 from the Civil Defense, and 100 trainees on the English language,” Pompegnani told a joint news conference held in Baghdad with Major General Hussein Jassim Dohi, deputy to the Iraqi army chief of staff.

The NATO Training Mission began working in Iraq on 14 August, 2004, at request of the then Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, and were scheduled to continue training Iraqi forces from both army and police until the end of 2009.

“1,300 policemen have graduated thus far from eight-week training courses offered by the NATO Training Mission in Iraq,” Major General Alessandro told reporters.

Meanwhile, Iraqi army deputy Chief of Staff General Dohi confirmed the consultative role by the NATO mission in Iraq, noting that insecurity “passively affects the training, which needs much more time.”

Aswat Aliraq

Hello everyone. It seems like a long time ago we began the discussion about the meaning of the auctions and the probability the CBI was reducing the money supply. At the time inflation was over 60%. We predicted at the time that if we were right in our view of the daily auctions, we would see inflation decrease. We would also see dinar become harder to get and for an increase in price. Two out of three of our predictions isn't bad. Thank you.


International Compact with Iraq
Statement by Adam Bennett
Senior Advisor, Middle East and Central Asia Department
International Monetary Fund
Stockholm, Sweden, May 29, 2008
Mr. Secretary General, Prime Minster Al-Maliki, Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh, your excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure for me to address this first Annual Review Conference of the International Compact with Iraq. I would like to congratulate Prime Minister Al-Maliki, his government, and its international partners on the achievements that have been made so far toward building a more secure, stable, and prosperous future for the Iraqi people. Many challenges undoubtedly remain. The establishment of the Compact on May 3, 2007 was an important reminder that Iraq's efforts to overcome these challenges has the support of the international community. I am pleased that the Fund has been able play its part in this process.

Briefly, on the recent history of our relationship with Iraq, the Fund began to reengage with Iraq in the summer of 2003. As well as providing extensive technical assistance, the Fund has provided financial support for Iraq's economic programs, with Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance in September 2004, a Stand-By Arrangement in December 2005, and a second Stand-By Arrangement in December 2007. From its inception, the objectives of the International Compact with Iraq and those of the Fund's two Stand-By Arrangements have been consistent and both are based on the same medium-term macroeconomic framework.

The main objectives of Iraq's Fund-supported economic programs were to: (i) achieve macroeconomic stability; (ii) promote growth; and (iii) begin the process of structural reform. Much has been achieved. These successes are all the more remarkable in view of the very difficult security situation in Iraq. For this, the Iraqi authorities deserve our congratulations.

Let me note a few of the achievements of the past year. First is the impressive reduction in inflation, from 65 percent at the end of 2006 to 5 percent at the end of 2007, a rate at which it has remained so far in 2008. Second is the increase in oil production and exports since the last quarter of 2007. Having remained virtually constant at 1.4 mpbd for four years, oil exports have averaged 1.8 mbpd in the first four months of 2008. Third, explicit fuel subsidies have been all but eliminated. Domestic fuel prices were further increased in 2007, after earlier adjustments in late 2005 and in 2006.

cont....

International Compact with Iraq, Statement by Adam Bennett, Senior Advisor, Middle East and Central Asia Department, International Monetary Fund

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

Hello everyone. It seems like a long time ago we began the discussion about the meaning of the auctions and the probability the CBI was reducing the money supply. At the time inflation was over 60%. We predicted at the time that if we were right in our view of the daily auctions, we would see inflation decrease. We would also see dinar become harder to get and for an increase in price. Two out of three of our predictions isn't bad. Thank you.

And dare I say ...they have brought inflation down as to be able to remove the inflationary zeros and bring the Dinar "Parity" to the USD ...and then take it to a "Real" exchange rate .....????

President reveals Strategic Projects

President Jalal Talabani confirmed that Govt. set plan to launch strategic projects aim improving reconstruction and reducing unemployment

Talabani met with some Iraqi editors in chief and heads of t.v. channels, and he reviewed all political, security and economic issues at the country and clear development at relations with Arab countries and the world. And about Iranian influence in Iraq, Talabani said that all countries has relations with Iraqi factions and Iran also has a relation with certain Iraqi factions.

The President described Iraqi US long - term agreement as escape to free Iraq from occupation's consequences and resume Iraq's control its oil wealth.

ÌÑíÏÉ ÇáÕÈÇÍ - President reveals strategic projects